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Written Answers to Questions

Monday 24 July 1989

PRIME MINISTER

Single European Market

Mr. Allen : To ask the Prime Minister what is her estimate of the number of jobs likely to be lost in the United Kingdom arising from the Single European Market of 1992 ; and what are the estimates available from the European Community.

The Prime Minister : The European Commission's own estimates last year predicted that United Kingdom employment would rise by around 1.5 per cent. as a result of completing the single market. This country's success in creating new jobs will depend on how well and how quickly individual firms respond to the new challenges which will face them. Under this Government's policies of enterprise, deregulation and incentive, there has been sustained economic growth and record business investment. British industry is thus well placed to take advantage of the opportunities which the single market will offer.

Attorney-General

Mr. Allen : To ask the Prime Minister what is her policy as to whether the Attorney-General should possess a legal qualification ; and if she will make a statement.

The Prime Minister : The Attorney General is the principal legal adviser to the Crown in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with the statutory duty to superintend the two Directors of Public Prosecutions and the director of the Serious Fraud Office. The Attorney-General appears personally on behalf of the Crown in appropriate cases. Accordingly, it is essential that he should be legally qualified, and the Attorney-General is a member of the Bar of England and Wales. He is given by statute, by virtue of his membership of the Bar of England and Wales, the same rights of audience in Northern Ireland as members of the Bar of Northern Ireland.

Colin Wallace

Mr. Dalyell : To ask the Prime Minister how many documents were received in relation to Colin Wallace and sent by or on behalf of Colin Wallace to No. 10 Downing street for onward transmission to the Hughes inquiry into the Kincora boys' home ; how many were sent on to Judge Hughes ; and what are the reasons for the difference between the two figures.

The Prime Minister : A file of papers relating to Mr. Colin Wallace was submitted to my office on 1 November 1984, but was returned to the sender on 24 November. No complete record of the documents was retained. No question arose at that stage of the papers being intended for onward transmission to the Hughes inquiry. When it was subsequently requested that the papers should be sent to the inquiry, such documents as had been copied and retained were duly made available.


Column 440

Mr. Derrick Gregory

Mr. Amos : To ask the Prime Minister if she will make one last urgent appeal to the Malaysian Government not to carry out the execution of Mr. Derrick Gregory.

The Prime Minister : As I am sure my hon. Friend is aware, Mr. Derrick Gregory was executed in the early hours of 21 July. I regret that the Malaysian Government were not able to accept the plea for clemency we made on humanitarian grounds.

EDUCATION AND SCIENCE

National Union of Teachers

Mr. McCrindle : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what recent discussions he has had with representatives of the National Union of Teachers ; and what was discussed.

Mrs. Rumbold : My right hon. Friend met representatives of the National Union of Teachers on 11 July to discuss future pay determination machinery.

School Leavers

Mr. Andrew F. Bennett : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science how many pupils with five or more good GCEs left school last year at 16 years of age and did not continue in full-time education.

Mrs. Rumbold : In the academic year 1987-88, some 22,500 16-year-old pupils left school in England with five or more grades A-C in the GCSE (including any equivalent grades gained at O-level and CSE previously), with no intention of continuing their full-time education.

Teacher Numbers

Ms. Mowlam : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what steps he is taking to ensure that there will be sufficient teachers qualified in all the necessary subjects to teach the national curriculum in its further stages from September 1990.

Mrs. Rumbold : My right hon. Friend is taking the requirements of the national curriculum fully into account in setting the intakes to initial teacher training, in revising the criteria for initial teacher training courses, in planning the LEA in-service training grant scheme and education support grants and in managing the action programme on teacher supply.

Teacher Shortages (Leicestershire)

Mr. Vaz : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what measures he is taking to provide himself with an accurate picture of teacher shortages in Leicestershire.

Mr. Butcher : The Department collects data on vacant posts from local education authorities each January. Consultations are continuing on information to be collected regularly from authorities and schools to monitor the national curriculum and other policies. Proposals on information about teachers, their deployment and movements will emerge from these consultations.


Column 441

Nursery Schools

Mrs. Mahon : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science whether he has any plans to increase the funding for local education authority-run nursery school places.

Mrs. Rumbold : I refer the hon. Member to my answer of 4 July to the hon. Member for Truro (Mr Taylor) at column 121.

Student Loans

Mr. Macdonald : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science when he expects the top-up loans for students scheme to make a cumulative net saving.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what he estimates will be the first year in which the top-up loans scheme for students will make a cumulative net saving in public expenditure, assuming (a) 80 per cent., (b) 90 per cent. and (c) 100 per cent. take-up of the loans scheme and allowing for all costs of defaults, write-offs, and all administrative costs of the loans administration vehicle and his Department, the start-up costs of the loans administration vehicle ; and his estimate of the costs of the interest subsidy to students.

Mr. Jackson : My answer on 21 March, Official Report, columns 497- 99, showed the costs and savings associated with top-up loans on the basis of 80, 90 and 100 per cent. take-up. Those figures took account of default and write-off. They also showed the effect of the interest subsidy ; if higher interest were charged, repayments would be larger, depending on the rate selected. Those figures did not include administrative costs.

On that basis, the scheme will show savings for the taxpayer as follows :


                   take-up                                                

                  |80 per cent. |90 per cent. |100 per cent.              

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Savings first                                                             

  exceed                                                                  

  outgoings       |2002         |2006         |2010                       

Cumulative saving                                                         

  first arises    |2013         |2018         |2022                       

Administrative costs have not been estimated beyond 1995. However, on the illustrative assumption that they average 20 million a year, savings would first accrue in 2003, 2009 and 2010 on 80, 90 and 100 per cent. take-up respectively, and cumulative savings would arise in 2014, 2021 and 2026 respectively. Inclusion of administrative costs will have only a marginal effect on the date at which the scheme breaks even.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science by how much he expects the recurring costs of student loans administration to rise (a) in total and (b) per account, in each year beyond 1995.

Mr. Jackson : The preparatory work on the administration of top-up loans has not so far included an assessment of operating costs after 1995 ; as is the case before 1995, I would expect costs to rise less fast than the total number of accounts with which the company will be dealing.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he has accepted the conclusion of the Price Waterhouse study on student loans that 1995 is typical of the scheme in full operation.


Column 442

Mr. Jackson : By 1995 the loans scheme will have been fully established, and it will be in the state of steady expansion which will be typical of its operation for a substantial number of years ; so the choice of 1995 as a basis for calculating operating costs was entirely reasonable.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he expects to complete the detailed analysis and cost-time estimates scheduled for August 1989 in the Price Waterhouse study on student loans.

Mr. Jackson : The next stage of detailed analysis on the administration of the top-up loans scheme is now under way ; it is due to be completed by the end of September.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science (1) if he will estimate the costs of (a) marketing to counter a poor take-up rate, (b) incentives and enthusiastic debt collection to counter a default rate, and (c) providing arm's-length return on investment to counter a poor level of participation or high level of exit, to counter the operational risks to the student loans scheme set out in the Price Waterhouse study ; (2) if he will estimate the costs of (a) reimbursement of nugatory expenditure if legislation is not passed or delayed, (b) marketing of the student loans scheme to counter student opposition and (c) protection of banks participating in the event of a change of Government policy or change of Government ; and by how much he expects the latter cost to rise by 1991-92, to counter the external risks to the student loans scheme set out in the Price Waterhouse study.

Mr. Jackson : The Price Waterhouse initial feasibility study identified these items as potential risks. More detailed work on the administration of the top-up loans scheme is now under way : that work, and the associated negotiations with the financial institutions, will no doubt address at least some of the items listed, but it is too early to say what conclusions will be reached.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science (1) if he will estimate the number of accounts in default in each year from 1990 to 2027, assuming the Government's estimates of student numbers rising to 1.15 million by 1995 and to at least 2.5 million by 2027, and a default rate of 10 per cent. ;

(2) if he will estimate the total numbers of repayments, defaults and deferrals on the top-up loans scheme for students in each year from 1991 to 1995 and for each year afterwards for which figures are available on the basis of the table in appendix VII, statement 3 of the Price Waterhouse study ;

(3) if he will publish the basic statistical data and working assumptions about student take-up, default rates and repayment profiles which he provided for the Price Waterhouse study on student loans.

Mr. Jackson : The following tables were supplied to Price Waterhouse. They show respectively estimated numbers of accounts, and the sums involved in 1990 prices. Table 1 shows in addition estimated numbers of accounts in default, deferring and making repayments. The tables are based on the same assumptions as annex E of Cm. 520, including estimates of graduate incomes based on historic data ; faster growth in graduate incomes will reduce the level of deferment.


Column 443


Table 1                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Top-up loans: number of accounts (thousands)                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     of which:                                                                                                                   

Academic year            |Drawing loan            |of which: New           |Due to repay            |(1) Making repayment    |(2) Defaulting          |(3) Claiming deferral   |Total number of accounts                         

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1990                     |427.6                   |427.6                   |0.0                     |0.0                     |0.0                     |0.0                     |427.6                                            

1991                     |424.2                   |148.5                   |152.8                   |55.0                    |6.1                     |91.7                    |577.0                                            

1992                     |415.2                   |145.6                   |305.6                   |110.1                   |12.2                    |183.4                   |720.8                                            

1993                     |406.9                   |143.6                   |458.9                   |192.7                   |21.4                    |244.8                   |865.8                                            

1994                     |400.4                   |141.7                   |607.2                   |273.6                   |30.4                    |303.2                   |1,007.5                                          

1995                     |395.5                   |140.1                   |752.2                   |374.0                   |41.6                    |336.6                   |1,147.6                                          

1996                     |394.6                   |143.0                   |834.9                   |418.1                   |46.5                    |370.3                   |1,229.5                                          

1997                     |402.8                   |150.2                   |915.8                   |461.1                   |51.2                    |403.4                   |1,318.6                                          

1998                     |414.3                   |153.4                   |965.8                   |489.1                   |54.3                    |422.3                   |1,380.1                                          

1999                     |424.1                   |153.6                   |1,019.8                 |519.0                   |57.7                    |443.1                   |1,443.9                                          

2000                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,057.4                 |530.9                   |59.0                    |467.5                   |1,484.8                                          

2001                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,157.4                 |596.9                   |66.3                    |494.2                   |1,584.8                                          

2002                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,257.9                 |664.0                   |73.8                    |520.1                   |1,685.4                                          

2003                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,315.5                 |693.6                   |77.1                    |544.8                   |1,742.9                                          

2004                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,374.3                 |724.9                   |80.5                    |568.9                   |1,801.7                                          

2005                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,425.9                 |743.5                   |82.6                    |599.8                   |1,853.3                                          

2006                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,477.7                 |762.1                   |84.7                    |631.0                   |1,905.1                                          

2007                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,506.2                 |759.8                   |84.4                    |662.0                   |1,933.6                                          

2008                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,601.1                 |817.3                   |90.8                    |693.0                   |2,028.5                                          

2009                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,694.9                 |873.9                   |97.1                    |723.9                   |2,122.3                                          

2010                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,811.0                 |950.5                   |105.6                   |754.9                   |2,238.4                                          

2011                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,865.7                 |971.9                   |108.0                   |785.8                   |2,293.1                                          

2012                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,942.9                 |1,013.7                 |112.6                   |816.5                   |2,370.3                                          

2013                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |1,996.7                 |1,041.5                 |115.7                   |839.4                   |2,424.1                                          

2014                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,050.3                 |1,069.2                 |118.8                   |862.2                   |2,477.7                                          

2015                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,088.8                 |1,083.3                 |120.4                   |885.1                   |2,516.2                                          

2016                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,112.1                 |1,097.5                 |121.9                   |892.7                   |2,539.5                                          

2017                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,135.6                 |1,111.7                 |123.5                   |900.4                   |2,563.0                                          

2018                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,151.2                 |1,118.9                 |124.3                   |907.9                   |2,578.6                                          

2019                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,167.1                 |1,126.0                 |125.1                   |916.1                   |2,594.5                                          

2020                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,190.7                 |1,139.7                 |126.6                   |924.4                   |2,618.1                                          

2021                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,207.3                 |1,153.4                 |128.2                   |925.8                   |2,634.7                                          

2022                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,224.1                 |1,167.2                 |129.7                   |927.3                   |2,651.5                                          

2023                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,225.7                 |1,167.2                 |129.7                   |928.8                   |2,653.1                                          

2024                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,227.1                 |1,167.2                 |129.7                   |930.2                   |2,654.5                                          

2025                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,227.6                 |1,167.2                 |129.7                   |930.7                   |2,655.0                                          

2026                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,227.6                 |1,167.2                 |129.7                   |930.7                   |2,655.0                                          

2027                     |427.4                   |152.6                   |2,227.6                 |1,167.2                 |129.7                   |930.7                   |2,655.0                                          


Table 2                                                                                                                                            

Top-up loans: Grants and repayments                                                                                                                

(£ million, 1990 prices)                                                                                                                           

                                           Repayments                                                                                              

                                                                Allowing for                                                                       

Academic year        |Gross loan outlay   |No deferral/default |Deferral, no default|10 per cent. default|Actual repayments                        

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1990                 |167.4               |0.0                 |0.0                 |0.0                 |0.0                                      

1991                 |193.2               |6.0                 |2.4                 |.2                  |2.2                                      

1992                 |215.2               |24.0                |9.6                 |1.0                 |8.6                                      

1993                 |235.8               |54.4                |23.0                |2.3                 |20.7                                     

1994                 |255.7               |94.2                |42.5                |4.2                 |38.2                                     

1995                 |275.2               |138.9               |67.4                |6.7                 |60.6                                     

1996                 |296.7               |174.5               |92.2                |9.2                 |83.0                                     

1997                 |324.6               |194.3               |113.7               |11.4                |102.3                                    

1998                 |355.6               |204.4               |131.4               |13.1                |118.3                                    

1999                 |385.5               |208.4               |145.5               |14.5                |130.9                                    

2000                 |409.6               |211.7               |157.2               |15.7                |141.5                                    

2001                 |430.0               |233.0               |173.4               |17.3                |156.1                                    

2002                 |449.8               |272.8               |196.0               |19.6                |176.4                                    

2003                 |469.1               |296.4               |213.3               |21.3                |191.9                                    

2004                 |487.8               |302.4               |225.1               |22.5                |202.6                                    

2005                 |505.8               |307.7               |234.7               |23.5                |211.2                                    

2006                 |523.4               |311.7               |241.7               |24.2                |217.5                                    

2007                 |540.4               |313.2               |244.9               |24.5                |220.4                                    

2008                 |540.4               |339.2               |256.5               |25.7                |230.9                                    

2009                 |540.4               |392.0               |279.4               |27.9                |251.5                                    

2010                 |540.4               |445.6               |306.0               |30.6                |275.4                                    

2011                 |540.4               |480.3               |328.6               |32.9                |295.8                                    

2012                 |540.4               |494.6               |346.8               |34.7                |312.2                                    

2013                 |540.4               |506.8               |366.2               |36.6                |329.5                                    

2014                 |540.4               |516.9               |382.5               |38.3                |344.3                                    

2015                 |540.4               |525.2               |396.3               |39.6                |356.6                                    

2016                 |540.4               |531.5               |407.4               |40.7                |366.7                                    

2017                 |540.4               |536.0               |417.3               |41.7                |375.6                                    

2018                 |540.4               |538.7               |425.0               |42.5                |382.5                                    

2019                 |540.4               |539.9               |430.5               |43.0                |387.4                                    

2020                 |540.4               |540.3               |436.3               |43.6                |392.7                                    

2021                 |540.4               |540.4               |442.8               |44.3                |398.5                                    

2022                 |540.4               |540.4               |448.9               |44.9                |404.0                                    

2023                 |540.4               |540.4               |452.8               |45.3                |407.6                                    

2024                 |540.4               |540.4               |454.5               |45.5                |409.1                                    

2025                 |540.4               |540.4               |455.9               |45.6                |410.3                                    

2026                 |540.4               |540.4               |457.0               |45.7                |411.3                                    

2027                 |540.4               |540.4               |457.8               |45.8                |412.0                                    

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will estimate the numbers of students repaying loans in each year from 1990 to 2027 on the basis of 80, 90, and 100 per cent. take-up, assuming an increase in the numbers of students from 1.15 million in 1995 to 2.5 million by 2027 and repayment periods of five, 10 and 15 years, respectively.

Mr. Jackson : Estimated numbers of graduates making repayments are shown in the table, for the take-up rates specified. In other respects the table is based on the assumptions used in annex E of Cm 520, including the assumption that the repayment period increases progressively from five to 10 years.


Loan repayment numbers (thousands)                                                                            

Year                  |80 per cent. take-up |90 per cent. take-up |100 per cent. take-up                      

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1990                  |0.0                  |0.0                  |0.0                                        

1991                  |55.0                 |61.9                 |68.8                                       

1992                  |110.1                |123.9                |137.6                                      

1993                  |192.7                |216.8                |240.9                                      

1994                  |273.6                |307.8                |342.0                                      

1995                  |374.0                |420.8                |467.5                                      

1996                  |418.1                |470.4                |522.6                                      

1997                  |461.1                |518.7                |576.4                                      

1998                  |489.1                |550.2                |611.4                                      

1999                  |519.0                |583.9                |648.7                                      

2000                  |530.9                |597.3                |663.6                                      

2001                  |596.9                |671.5                |746.1                                      

2002                  |664.0                |747.0                |830.0                                      

2003                  |693.6                |780.3                |867.0                                      

2004                  |724.9                |815.5                |906.1                                      

2005                  |743.5                |836.4                |929.4                                      

2006                  |762.1                |857.4                |952.6                                      

2007                  |759.8                |854.8                |949.8                                      

2008                  |817.3                |919.5                |1,021.6                                    

2009                  |873.9                |983.1                |1,092.4                                    

2010                  |950.5                |1,069.3              |1,188.1                                    

2011                  |971.9                |1,093.4              |1,214.9                                    

2012                  |1,013.7              |1,140.4              |1,267.1                                    

2013                  |1,041.5              |1,171.7              |1,301.9                                    

2014                  |1,069.2              |1,202.9              |1,336.5                                    

2015                  |1,083.3              |1,218.7              |1,354.1                                    

2016                  |1,097.5              |1,234.7              |1,371.9                                    

2017                  |1,111.7              |1,250.7              |1,389.6                                    

2018                  |1,118.9              |1,258.8              |1,398.6                                    

2019                  |1,126.0              |1,266.8              |1,407.5                                    

2020                  |1,139.7              |1,282.2              |1,424.6                                    

2021                  |1,153.4              |1,297.6              |1,441.8                                    

2022                  |1,167.2              |1,313.1              |1,459.0                                    

2023                  |1,167.2              |1,313.1              |1,459.0                                    

2024                  |1,167.2              |1,313.1              |1,459.0                                    

2025                  |1,167.2              |1,313.1              |1,459.0                                    

2026                  |1,167.2              |1,313.1              |1,459.0                                    

2027                  |1,167.2              |1,313.1              |1,459.0                                    


Column 446

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will estimate the total cost of defaults and the cost per defaulting account on student loans in 1995 on the basis of the estimates set out in appendix VI, statement 1 of the Price Waterhouse study.

Mr. Jackson : On the basis of the assumptions set out in annex E of the White Paper "Top-up Loans for Students" (Cm 520), including a default rate of 10 per cent., the cost of default in 1995 would be £6.7 million. That is equivalent to £161 per defaulting account.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will estimate the total number of student loan deferrals and write-offs in each year from 1991 to 1995 and for each year thereafter for which figures are available on the basis of the table in appendix VIII, statement 3, of the Price Waterhouse study.

Mr. Jackson : I refer the hon. Member to my other replies today showing estimated numbers claiming deferment of repayments. For the costings in Cm 520, no allowance was made for write-offs of debts arising from death. Numbers of loans written off because deferment continues for 25 years are estimated as follows :


Number of write-offs 

Year   |Number       

---------------------

2016   |15,300       

2017   |15,300       

2018   |15,300       

2019   |14,800       

2020   |14,500       

2021   |21,600       

2022   |21,300       

2023   |21,300       

2024   |21,600       

2025   |22,400       

2026   |22,900       

2027   |22,900       

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science (1) if he will estimate, and give an itemised breakdown of (a) marketing and publicity costs, (b) university administration costs and (c) other costs to his Department in each year up to 2027, which were excluded from the cost estimates in the Price Waterhouse study on student loans ;

(2) if he will publish an equivalent to table 2 on page 12 of the Price Waterhouse study on student loans for each year from 1990 to 2027.

Mr. Jackson : This information is not available.


Column 447

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will list the occasions on which his officials participated in the Price Waterhouse study on student loans, specifying the nature of their contributions.

Mr. Jackson : Officials from the Department provided the Price Waterhouse team with a variety of information on both the Government's policy on top-up loans--as set out in the White Paper "Top-up Loans for Students"--and the analyses underlying the costings set out in that White Paper. Officials also discussed the findings of the study with the consultants. There were frequent contacts while the study was being carried out.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will place in the Library the independent assessments contributed by the banks which


Column 448

provided the basis for the students loans administration vehicle costings set out in the Price Waterhouse feasibility study on top-up loans for students.

Mr. Jackson : The feasibility study by Price Waterhouse drew on a variety of sources of information.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will publish the table summarising start-up and recurring running costs of the student loans administration vehicle on page 11 of the Price Waterhouse study, and estimate the cost per account, for each year from 1990 to 2027, taking into account the statement in the Price Waterhouse study that annual costs will increase as the number of students repaying loans increases.

Mr. Jackson : Following is a copy of the table referred to.


Table 1-Summary of Costs<1>                                                             

                   Start-up costs              Recurring costs                          

Cost category     |Low          |High         |Low          |High                       

                  |£            |£            |£            |£                          

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Systems           |1,580,000    |2,656,000    |1,577,000    |2,249,000                  

Staff             |250,000      |370,000      |3,300,000    |4,860,000                  

Professional fees |1,300,000    |1,700,000    |200,000      |250,000                    

Premises          |3,275,000    |4,250,000    |750,000      |1,000,000                  

Branch costs      |-            |-            |2,500,000    |3,000,000                  

Other             |1,862,000    |2,533,000    |2,039,000    |2,649,000                  

                  |------       |------       |------       |------                     

Operating costs   |8,267,000    |11,509,000   |10,366,000   |14,008,000                 


                               |£         |£                    

----------------------------------------------------------------

Depreciation on start-up costs |827,000   |1,151,000            

Interest on initial investment |537,000   |748,000              

Debt collection agency fees    |2,780,000 |4,480,000            

                               |-----     |-----                

Total vehicle-related cost to                                   

  government                   |14,510,000|20,387,000           

<1>All figures in 1989 £'s.                                     

It should be noted that certain of the costs indicated, for example those identified as depreciation on start-up costs and interest on initial investment, will not arise if start-up funding is provided by grant rather than loan ; and that the reference to debt collection agency fees is to the possible use--which will be the subject of further discussion--of debt collection agencies to collect repayments from graduates who are in default. The cost of normal loan recovery is included in the £10.4 million to £14 million estimate of recurring costs.

On the basis of the estimates of operating costs included for the years 1990-1995 in the Price Waterhouse report, and excluding the depreciation, interest and debt collection agency items, the operating cost per account would be as follows :



Year                |Operating costs (£ |Estimated number of|Operating cost per                     

                    |million)           |accounts           |account                                

                                                            |£                                      

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1990                |8.5-11.5           |430,000            |20-27                                  

1991                |8.8-11.6           |577,000            |15-20                                  

1992                |9.1-11.7           |721,000            |13-16                                  

1993                |9.5-11.9           |866,000            |11-14                                  

1994                |9.9-13.3           |1,008,000          |10-13                                  

1995                |10.4-14.0          |1,148,000          |9-12                                   

Figures for the years after 1995 are not yet available.


Column 448

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if the same repayment regime will apply to graduates whose banks opt to leave the proposed loans administration vehicle in the Price Waterhouse study on student loans.

Mr. Jackson : I would not expect any banks to cease to participate, but a graduate's obligation to repay, together with the opportunity for deferment in the case of low income, will remain in force in any case.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what commitments in respect of bearing all credit risk he has entered into, or plans to enter into, as set out in section 1(3) of the Price Waterhouse study on student loans.

Mr. Jackson : The Government have made it clear that they are ready to stand behind the cost of default on the top-up loans scheme : that cost was explicity taken into account in the costings published in the White Paper "Top-up Loans for Students". We envisage that the company administering the loans scheme will receive, as part of its fee, an incentive to maximise repayments.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what guarantees of reimbursement of start-up costs he has given, or plans to give, to the banks in the event of legislative defeat or substantial alteration of the forthcoming student loans Bill.

Mr. Jackson : My right hon. Friend said in his statement on 19 June that the Government would meet the costs of detailed preparatory work by the Committee of London and Scottish Bankers and by the company.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science when he expects to have secured


Column 449

the agreements for ownership of the loans administration vehicle, cost reimbursement and the participation of the banks scheduled for May-June 1989 in the Price Waterhouse study on student loans.

Mr. Jackson : My right hon. Friend announced in his statement on 19 June that a scheme had been designed which was agreed to be a cost- effective and feasible means of introducing top-up loans in September 1990 ; and that it was clear that, subject to the satisfactory outcome of the contractual negotiations, a sufficient number of financial institutions would wish to participate from the outset to ensure that the company would be viable.

Mr. Andrew Smith : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science whether he plans to accept the criteria (a) that loans be kept off the balance sheets of participating banks and (b) that loans be funded by the Government, including default liability, for devising a loans administration vehicle as set out in the Price Waterhouse study.


Column 450

Mr. Jackson : The White Paper "Top-up Loans for Students" made it clear that the cost of funding top-up loans, allowing for default, would fall to the Exchequer. The formation of a separate company to administer the loans scheme, as described in my right hon. Friend's statement on 19 June, means that there is no question of loans figuring on the balance sheet of participating financial institutions.

Institute of Horticultural Research

Mr. Cousins : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will list the sources of funds for the Institute of Horticultural Research distinguishing between statutory work grants, grant- in-aid, and contributions from the Agriculture and Food Research Council in each year since 1982 both in current and standard prices.

Mr. Jackson : Details of the sources of funding of the Institute of Horticultural Research are as follows :


Column 449


£ million                                                                              

               |1981-82|1982-83|1983-84|1984-85|1985-86|1986-87|1987-88|1988-89        

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cash                                                                                   

AFRC           |9.7    |10.3   |10.1   |9.5    |9.5    |8.9    |8.8    |9.9            

Other          |0.6    |0.6    |0.7    |0.7    |1.0    |1.5    |2.0    |2.2            

               |---    |---    |---    |---    |---    |---    |---    |---            

Total          |10.3   |10.9   |10.8   |10.2   |10.5   |10.4   |10.8   |12.1           

                                                                                       

1988-89 prices                                                                         

AFRC           |14.0   |13.9   |13.0   |11.7   |11.1   |10.1   |9.4    |9.9            

Other          |0.9    |0.8    |0.9    |0.9    |1.2    |1.7    |2.1    |2.2            

               |---    |---    |---    |---    |---    |---    |---    |---            

Total          |14.9   |14.7   |13.9   |12.6   |12.3   |11.8   |11.5   |12.1           

Grants from the AFRC are in respect of both recurrent and capital expenditure and      

consist of both grant-in-aid from the DES Science Budget and commissions from MAFF.    

Mr. Cousins : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what was the employment at each site of the Institute for Horticultural Research in each year since 1982 ; and what is his estimate of the effect of the Barnes review implementation on employment at each site.

Mr. Jackson : The Institute of Horticultural Research came into existence in 1986 and was based on four former institutes of the Agricultural and Food Research Council. The numbers of staff employed at the four sites on 1 April in the years 1982-85 were as follows :


              |1982|1983|1984|1985     

---------------------------------------

East Malling  |338 |340 |329 |299      

Littlehampton |261 |261 |253 |233      

Wye College   |7   |7   |7   |6        

Wellesbourne  |223 |224 |220 |197      

Figures are not available for each site for the years 1986-88, but the total number of staff of the institute were :


       |Number       

---------------------

1986   |630          

1987   |579          

1988   |562          

Currently the numbers of permanent staff are :


Column 450


                             |Number       

-------------------------------------------

East Malling (including Wye) |236          

Littlehampton                |182          

Wellesbourne                 |169          

The number employed at each site in future will depend on the organisation of horticultural research. This has been considered by a working group which put forward a number of options to my right hon. Friends the Secretary of State, the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and the Secretary of State for Scotland and the chairman of the AFRC. These are at present under consideration.

Small Businesses

Mr. David Shaw : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will make a statement on the achievements of his Department and his policies in helping small businesses over the last 12 months compared with the previous 12 months ; and if he will publish the performance indicators by which his Department monitors those achievements and the statistical results of such monitoring.

Mrs. Rumbold : It is estimated that during 1988-89 the Department purchased goods to the value of £6.1 million (£3.8 million previous year) of which some £2.4 million benefited small firms (£1.3 million previous year).


Column 451

Approximately 40 per cent. of our services-- minor works, cleaning, transportation and so on--continue to be provided by small firms. Performance indicators and a computerised procurement monitoring system are currently being developed. Meantime the Department continues to operate a policy of including small firms on tender lists whenever an appropriate opportunity arises.

General Teaching Council

Mr. Speed : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science what discussions he has recently had with the teaching unions about the setting up of a general teaching council for England and Wales.

Mrs. Rumbold : No such discussions have been held with the teacher unions.

Medical Research

Mr. Kirkwood : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science if he will list in the Official Report the information he has as to the amounts spent by (a) private companies and (b) charities on medical research in each of the last 10 years, or the latest periods for which figures are available ; and what is his estimate of the United Kingdom proportion of spending on medical research this represents.

Mr. Jackson [holding answer 19 July 1989] : Information is not collected centrally on the spending of private companies or charities on medical research. The majority of larger medical charities are members of the Association of Medical Research Charities, and I understand from the association that spending on medical research by their member organisations in recent years has been as follows :


          |£ million          

------------------------------

1982-83   |72.6               

1983-84   |76.8               

1984-85   |86.6               

1985-86   |108.8              

1986-87   |110.2              

1987-88   |137.6              

1988-89   |148.2              

Assessment

Mr. Patrick Thompson : To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Science whether he has received advice from the Schools Examinations and Assessment Council about assessing and reporting achievement in the light of national curriculum requirements.

Mr. Kenneth Baker [pursuant to his reply, 5 May 1989, c. 258] : The School Examinations and Assessment Council has offered advice about the development, implementation and operation of the national curriculum assessment system. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Wales and I welcome the council's outline proposals, and look forward to receiving its more comprehensive proposals in December 1989.

I have placed copies of the council's letter and my reply in the Libraries of both Houses.


Column 452

WALES

Residential Education

Dr. Marek : To ask the Secretary of State for Wales how many children are receiving out-of-county special residential education in Wales, and if he will give the per capita cost to each county over the past 10 years.

Mr. Wyn Roberts : Information about children receiving out-of-county special residential education is not collected centrally. However the number of Welsh children receiving out-of-county special residential and non-residential education in maintained and independent schools in England and Wales over the past 10 years is as follows :


                          |Maintained schools<2>    |Independent schools<1><2>                          

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1978-79                   |497                      |225                                                

1979-80                   |549                      |155                                                

1980-81                   |443                      |190                                                

1981-82                   |461                      |179                                                

1982-83                   |380                      |194                                                

1983-84                   |419                      |98                                                 

1984-85                   |391                      |129                                                

1985-86                   |360                      |93                                                 

1986-87                   |327                      |131                                                

1987-88                   |207                      |144                                                

<1> Includes those children educated otherwise than at school.                                          

<2> Includes both children who are the subject of a statement and those who have not been statemented.  

Corresponding expenditure figures are not available.

Small Businesses

Mr. David Shaw : To ask the Secretary of State for Wales if he will make a statement on the achievements of his Department and his policies in helping small businesses over the last 12 months compared with the previous 12 months ; and if he will publish the performance indicators by which his Department monitors those achievements and the statistical results of such monitoring.

Mr. Wyn Roberts : This Department continues to attach a high priority to the promotion of enterprise and to helping small businesses. General economic policies at a national level, national enterprise support policies and initiatives that are unique to Wales are all helping to make Wales a place where small businesses can flourish. Performance indicators including job creation and costs appear in the Government's public expenditure White Paper and the annual reports of the relevant sponsored bodies concerned. In Wales the latest available figures show that by 1987 the total number of businesses registered for VAT was 78,719 ; an increase of 11.8 per cent. on 1979. The Department's specific policies to encourage enterprise in Wales are :

Gateway Network

Launched in 1987 to provide a high quality advice and information service. Gateway network was expanded in 1988 with the inclusion of all of the main banks in Wales to make the service available from an even greater number of organisations. Evaluation by officials indicates a high level of use and customer satisfaction while identifying potential areas for improvement and expansion. Support for Local Enterprise Agencies

Three local enterprise agencies have been approved in Wales during the last 12 months bringing the total to 23. Grants towards their running costs under the grants for local enterprise agencies in Wales scheme totalled £330,000 in 1988-89 (£116,000 in 1987-88).


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