House of Commons Hansard Debates for 22 Feb 1990

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certainly do not want domination by the looming power of a Russia which might be stripped of its colonies but which would still be very big.

The British approach to this enormously fluid scene is one in which we have clearly preserved the traditional national instinct. Of course we seek to exercise our sovereignty in common--I believe that that is the right way of putting it--with others in a whole variety of areas in which it makes economic and in many cases political sense to do so. However, we must remember that the treaty of Rome was rooted in nation states, not in the idea that there should be a total submerging of the practical and manageable structures--the nations--into a larger and more anomalous body.

Mr. Donald Anderson (Swansea, East) : Leaving aside any possibility of total submergence, is not the traditional concept that the right hon. Gentleman has outlined--that Britain believes in a balance of power on the continent and intervenes from time to time when one power, be it a Napoleon or a Hitler, becomes too grand--now wholly irrelevant in the light of our current power and possibilities? Is not that part of the reason why our partners on the continent are so suspicious of whether we are in or out of the new developments in Europe?

Mr. Howell : The hon. Gentleman does not understand how the statesmanship of the balance of power was carried through and implemented in the past. Far from involving detachment and isolation--although occasionally we were guilty of that with catastrophic results that we can all remember or read about in the history books--it involved the most intimate detail and continuous involvement in the structures and processes of European political exchange and dialogue. I strongly believe that that must continue today. I share the views of those who express concern that we might become too detached and isolated, with the same kind of results as in the past. The hon. Gentleman's analogy and comparison are not valid. I should like to address the question that has been raised by some people, which is whether we should now speed up the integration of the western European Economic Community--the EC, which used to be the EEC--in response to and as a counterpoint to what is happening in eastern Europe. I certainly do not believe in slowing down and in going to the other extreme, about which my right hon. Friend the Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup was concerned.

However, I wonder about some of the more intense speeches made by Monsieur Delors and others about speeding up, intensifying, deepening, furthering and accelerating and all the rest of it. If one reads some of those speeches, which are all about the need for the political will to do this and the political will to do that, one realises that they sound a bit like a 1990s version of Nietzsche. That chills me and is not something that we should welcome. I make no bones about being a bit of an evolutionist in relation to the European Community and European integration. The European Community has been a fabulous creation. I see it much more as a magnet than as a block. I do not hold with those who say that it should be exclusive. Austria and other countries have a perfectly reasonable case to make about joining. Indeed, the European Community is proving a magnet to and possibly a cause of much that is happening in eastern Europe.

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However, let us not get delusions of grandeur and believe that, for all its success, the European Community is the only answer or that it is a club that we keep others out of and that we should strengthen and deepen in every conceivable way and in which we should go faster than we are already going towards achieving the single European market. Perhaps, in a few years' time, our somewhat grand hauteur about the poverty of eastern Europe will have to be replaced by a recognition that they are highly dynamic countries that will want to work together among themselves. Indeed, Mr. Havel and others, including Mr. Mazowiecki, have already indicated strongly, as have their Ministers, that, although they have no time for the ridiculous COMECON, they would like to see some regional grouping in eastern Europe, with money flowing between the trading nations, which could look the European Community in the face and possibly do business with it, rather than one country after another being picked off. Perhaps something like the old European Payments Union, which was a clever idea that worked extremely well, might do nicely in helping those countries to develop a modern capitalist trading system in eastern Europe. It might help them to maintain their European vigour and dignity without getting too lost in endless negotiations with the EC which, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup has reminded us, might take years and years and years. Those are the ways in which I hope that our foreign policy might develop. Above all, I ask my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary to do what he is trying to do and to participate in all these things fully and continuously. Britain should not be the sort of friend who comes along afterwards and says, "Good idea." We should be the friend and support who strengthens and encourages our allies as they take these critical decisions. By our allies I mean, for instance, the leaders in Bonn who are having to handle the most difficult crisis that has faced the Federal Republic since its inception, and who need all the support, encouragement and new ideas that we could conceivably offer them at this stage.

My hope is that we remain closely involved. If we do not, not only will we suffer from detachment and isolation as our financial industries and banks are bought up and as the whole centre of action moves to the continent-- that is already happening, because London is now closing down as a financial centre--but Europe itself might lose one of its vital ingredients, which has been, through history, the wisdom, participation and common sense of this House and this nation. We, too, have been Europeans, and Europe needs us as much as we need it.

6.46 pm

Sir Russell Johnston (Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber) : The right hon. Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) finished on an

uncharacteristically nationalist note. However, I very much agree that the pace of change is so fast and, many think, so unpredictable that it is difficult to devise settled policies and views. I shall concentrate on four issues to the exclusion of others, including force reductions and the position of the United States, important though they are. Three of the issues have inevitably been canvassed and dealt with by

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hon. Members already, but my first point has not. To a large extent, it has been neglected throughout the argument, although it was touched on by the right hon. Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Mr. Heath).

A couple of weeks ago today I had the opportunity of asking the Prime Minister a question. I asked her whether she agreed that the same logic that had led the West--not just Europe or, within it, the United Kingdom-- to assist countries such as Poland and Hungary and would in turn be directed to other satellite countries should lead us to facing up to the huge problem of assisting the Soviet Union itself. Her reply was cautious. I might even say that she was timid, although that is not an adjective that I would normally apply to the Prime Minister.

This is one area in which we should not be timid. I should like to commend to the House, and especially to the Government and to Ministers, a visionary article that was published in the Financial Times on 6 December 1989 by Anatole Kaletsky. I refer to a couple of passages that put their finger on something that has still not been recognised, although the right hon. Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup touched on it en passant. The article stated :

"as the world celebrates the outward signs of liberation in eastern Europe, it is in danger of forgetting the deeper causes and consequences of the events in Budapest, Berlin and Prague It would be the ultimate historic irony if an outdated preoccupation with German unity and instability in central Europe should now distract attention from the infinitely more important issue of Gorbachev's attempts to reconstruct the Soviet Union and bring it closer to the liberal West. If Gorbachev and perestroika fail, the turmoil in the Soviet Union will be a far greater threat to world prosperity and peace than any conceivable development in Germany or central Europe."

He went on to say, as several hon. Members have said, that if Gorbachev could feed, clothe and heat Russia through the winter, the people might tolerate him for another year. If he managed to produce consumer goods such as cars, video recorders, or even soap and blue jeans, he might last longer. But can he do it in the present circumstances?

The author went on to quote an estimate--these things are very much estimates ; when one talks in billions one wonders how it is all worked out --by an Hungarian-American financier called Soros, who "suggested that $25 billion a year of Western aid would be required to stabilise the Soviet economy and avert hyper-inflation in the two years ahead."

I shall quote two further passages from that article : "The first reaction of many Western readers will be to throw up their hands in horror"

at such a proposal.

"The Soros proposal is equivalent to the entire US foreign aid budget and more than double the annual disbursement of the World Bank But The cost of helping Russia must be set against the cost of defending the world against her ; $25 billion is a very modest figure when compared with the US defence budget of $300 billion, to say nothing of the sums squandered on armaments by other countries." We should all give serious consideration, not just to tinkering around saying, "We shall have the odd joint venture here and take a few chaps from there for managerial courses."

In the West, we must consider that, if there is to be a dramatic drop in defence spending, it will be because of what Mr. Gorbachev has undertaken. He could be overthrown and there could be recidivism. There could be someone unpredictable with his hand on the Soviet Union's nuclear trigger. We can help prevent that and we should give it the most serious consideration.

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My second point will be much briefer because several hon. Members have already talked about German reunification. Like other right hon. and hon. Members, I believe that reunification will take place, de facto, though not de jure, by the end of the year. We must remember that other changes will occur when the elections take place on 18 March. The polls forecast that there will be a Social Democratic, eastern European, East German-type victory.

Whether the victor will rush tumultuously into Helmut Kohl's arms directly after the election is a question for consideration. There may be some delay, but in practice rather than in law the DDR will join the Federal Republic and therefore, will join the European Community. One could argue that, because of her preferential trading arrangements with the Federal Republic, the DDR is already an unofficial associate member of the EC.

There are many fears about reunification. Some hon. Members have talked about a fourth reich. The right hon. Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) talked about instability in the case of a break-up of the DDR. He spoke of it as something to be feared. That was not the sort of instability of which the Prime Minister spoke when she addressed the Jewish Board of Deputies. She spoke about a different instability caused by a powerful German state.

With all respect, for the Prime Minister to talk about instability is a bit rich, because the United Kingdom has been one of the main factors of instability in the European Community in the last decade. The talk of fourth reichs and the like is an insult to the impecable democratic record of the Federal Republic. It has constructively and courageously advocated ostpolitik. Its internal society is open and tolerant.

As a Liberal, I acknowledge the Foreign Secretary's tribute to the work done by the German Liberal Hans-Dietrich Genscher. One could pick many other German politicians from both sides of the political spectrum. The right hon. Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Mr. Heath) talked about Mr. Erhard, but Adenauer and Schmidt and others have all played a constructive role in European politics which was not a nationalist role. It is not to be forgotten that they were far-seeing.

One cannot have it both ways. If it is argued that the reunification of Germany produces an enormously worrying concentration of economic and political power, the answer--I disagree with the right hon. Member for Guildford--is to accelerate the process of economic and monetary union, thus firmly anchoring Germany in the Community and building up supranationalism to overcome the institutionalised nationalism which in the past we have been used to in Europe and which, perhaps, we are getting over. The Government's hesitancy in respect of monetary union is deeply flawed.

As borders become less significant after 1992, the next generation, and even more so the generation after that, will wonder what all the fuss was about. The right hon. Member for Leeds, East spoke about that, although he did not put it in exactly that way. We must remember that an adult male who was 20 at the end of the war is now on a pension. The world has moved on and we must recognise it. It is difficult to sort out defence matters, and I shall not try to do so. It is all rather confused. The right hon. Member for Leeds, East was dead right : "neutral" is a word which now has quite a different meaning. It is hard to imagine Germany as neutral in any sense. It must play

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its part in the European Community and express opinions. It has to present attitudes. As a major state in an integrated European Community, it cannot have its decision-making power taken away. One may say that the Warsaw pact as a military alliance no longer exists. Hon. Members may have noticed that the Hungarians have said that they would like to join NATO. I do not know why they want to join or what the purpose would be. The right hon. Member for Leeds, East was right that we must get away from the old business of blocs. That has changed. Where he was wrong, or at least where he went ahead a little fast, was in talking of the expansion of the Community. I wonder whether the European Community does not have an optimum size. Can it go on like Topsy getting bigger and bigger? It will be difficult to administer and regulate. If the Community develops any effective coherent foreign policy, it will have to have a defence policy, too. One cannot separate the two. It is absurd nonsense to say that we shall have a foreign policy but no defence policy. The two things come together.

Several hon. Members made points about minorities, which are a big problem. Borders may exist but, for instance, the Oder-Neisse line is not sacrosanct. Why should it be--any more than the Saar was a sacrosanct part of France when it was transferred in 1956 by plebiscite? On the Polish side of the line, there are no Germans left. There are no Germans any more in what was Konigsburg and is now Kaliningrad. However, there are minorities spattered all over Hungary, Romania and other countries. They require some safeguards. I doubt whether simply changing borders would be sufficient, because such people live in inconvenient places and groups. Some sort of assurance is needed if there is to be a final treaty. It has been suggested that that could be done through the Council of Europe and an extension of the powers of the European Court from only human rights issues to minority rights issues of education, culture and protection. I do not know whether that would be the solution, but it is probably the way to do it.

The know-how funds are proceeding well. There are criticisms that there is bureaucracy and there are delays, but the Minister will agree that the thing has to shake down. Money is coming through from the United States and the Community as a whole in pure investment terms too.

People have talked about helping the democracies. Hon. Members should note that every one of the countries turning to democracy and away from authoritarianism has chosen proportional voting systems rather than our system. That is a fact. They want consensus government. The hon. Member for Hamilton (Mr. Robertson) on the Labour Front Bench was wearing an allegedly consensual robe of emollience. It did not sound very emollient to me. Eastern European countries want a bit of peace and co-operation, and that is something which we should develop.

I am sorry that I have spoken longer than I intended, but it is difficult for us to stop one another speaking about such important things. I agree that we are being given an historic

opportunity--probably the best Europe has ever had--for prosperous development in freedom. We should not be over-cautious, but should be anxious to get in there to help that process.

Several Hon. Members rose--

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Madam Deputy Speaker (Miss Betty Boothroyd) : Order. Mr. Speaker has limited speeches between 7 pm and 9 pm to 10 minutes. 7 pm

Mr. Kenneth Warren (Hastings and Rye) : You force me, Madam Deputy Speaker, to speak faster than usual.

First I should like to praise my right hon. Friend the Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Mr. Heath) and the right hon. Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) on their remarkable speeches. However, I am afraid that they omitted to mention the way in which the leaderships of eastern Europe perceive our Prime Minister. They believe that my right hon. Friend is a good Prime Minister, they respect her and they want her to play a leading role in the negotiations that will take place between the West and eastern Europe.

This debate is jolly dangerous to everyone in the House in the sense that no one predicted the events of 1989, but here we are trying to predict those of 1990. When the Select Committee on Trade and Industry, of which I have the honour to be Chairman, went to eastern Europe, we visited three Karl Marx institutes--in Budapest, Bucharest and Sofia--and in each one they were preaching the free-market economy and Thatcherism. Such small rumblings should not have gone unnoticed by those in the West who call themselves experts in this subject.

Without doubt we all give generous and warm acclaim to the self-liberation and birth of new democracies in eastern European countries. Now we must go beyond congratulations and act with alacrity and vision. One eastern European ambassador in London said to me only today that eastern Europe needs deeds now, not words, if it is to survive to achieve democracy.

In the work in which I have been engaged in the Select Committee and in which I participate on behalf of the British-Soviet parliamentary group, it has become apparent that it is easy to generalise and to miss the essential fact that each eastern European country is different. Certain problems, however, are common to all those countries, and the West, particularly the United Kingdom, should help quickly to overcome them.

The easiest problems to solve are, unfortunately, long-term and not immediate ones, such as helping with management training, improving distribution methods to get goods to the shops from the farms and the revision of COCOM. That organisation is irrelevant, but in Paris it is still grinding on with a four-year revision of its work. All the eastern European countries demonstrate their need for convertible currencies and we also need to help to provide some solution for the terrible debt problems faced by countries such as Poland and Hungary. It is awful to observe that the one country without any debt problem is the one that had the bloodiest revolution--Romania.

The West can give help to overcome the short-term problems, but we must act fast. The West Germans have set the pace and I believe that we should give instant credit to countries such as the Soviet Union to enable them to buy food from us. A story has gone round to suggest that the Foreign Office has said that we cannot do that without the permision of the European Community. That is nonsense. I hope that the Minister will kill that story when he replies and make it clear that we will be only too willing to help the Soviet Union to get the food that it urgently needs.

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We could also help in an instant by ensuring that visas for east European business men are granted without delay. The only espionage in which such people will indulge now will be industrial and it is up to the host company to deal with that--it is not a job for the Foreign Office or the Home Office to investigate such people's reputations. We could also encourage industry to give manufacturing licences for the basic commodities needed in the Soviet Union. Electric kettles are needed more than anything else. There must be British companies which could dump electric kettles on the Soviet Union and get plant started up now. It is extremely galling to hear from the Soviet ambassador that the South Koreans have found their way into a redundant defence company in Uzbekistan and are now licensing that company to make video and cassette recorders. The development of such manufacturing would not only help the Soviet Union to get into business quickly by translating its defence industry into consumer products, but help to soak up the surplus money sloshing around all the east European economies.

The prime problem faced by eastern Europe, which must be solved with similar alacrity to that adopted by the West, is bureaucracy. If anything will defeat Mr. Gorbachev the pragmatist, it is the bureaucracy of the Soviet Union, much of which is unwilling to do anything to change or to remove old privileges. That bureacracy is also unable to take on management tasks in the economy ; since the advent of Communism in 1917, the Soviet Union has had a command economy in which management was not required.

It took us a long time to appreciate that Mr. Gorbachev is a man who says what he means and means what he says. On the two occasions when I have had the privilege to meet him, it has taken a long time to get used to the fact that he is a man who tells one the truth. Some people outside the House may say that that is one politician's judgment of another and that I may not be the best judge, but I believe that we must listen to him carefully. When he says that he is under threat, we must remember our alliance with him and that he is the man who has done most, on either side of the iron curtain, to damp down the fires of the cold war and to remove the Berlin wall. I accept, however, that he has been extremely cunning in dumping all the problems of the economies of eastern Europe on to the West. We now have the responsibility to try to straighten them out. Mr. Gorbachev, however, still faces the eternal problem of his army--the 400,000 elite of the Red Army now stranded on a political island in East Germany. I do not know how he will get them out, but the economic problem of defence is the fundamental feature which beat him when he tried to preserve Communism.

There is a lot of work going on in the EC, but Britain should be more actively engaged in helping. My Committee returned from Brussels today and we are aware of three parallel policies in the EC--negotiations with the European Free Trade Association, the 1992 process and the aid programmes to the East. In 1989, the EC gave £200 million and it is now mapping out plans to give £600 million. Without being cynical, that aid presents many opportunities for British business as we attempt to solve the short- term and medium-term problems of eastern Europe.

Undoubtedly, with the implosion of imperialism in the Soviet Union, other types of alliance will form. Finland is already looking across the Baltic to Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia as a possible new trading area--one which

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would also encompass the northern area of Poland. Without doubt, we must accept that anything is possible but that deeds count more strongly than words.

I am not the least bit scared by German reunification. I remember, as a young boy, the horrors of the war, but there is no need to look back--we must look forward to helping Germany unite. I appreciate the problems associated with a neutral Germany--it must participate in all our European affairs. We must remember that, in 1989, West Germany took in 864,000 refugees. That is a social burden on West Germany and it is not right or proper for us to say that, so long as the British taxpayer does not have to pay for reunification, it does not matter. We stand on the frontier of a new life of freedom which, for the first time in our lives, will be shared right across Europe. It is unexpected and therefore all the more wonderful. Above all, we in this country have a duty to help all those people in the east of the continent who have won their freedom, often with the blood of their brothers and sisters, after 50 years of terror.

7.10 pm

Mr. Michael Foot (Blaenau Gwent) : I agree with the hon. Member for Hastings and Rye (Mr. Warren) about the crucial role that Mr. Gorbachev has played in unleashing these events. It is not all due to him, for there have been a whole series of other events as well, but his achievement has been very great indeed and, as most people believe, we are faced with a great historic opportunity--the greatest opportunity the world has confronted since 1945--and we are concerned to make sure that we make the best use of it, with Britain playing a leading part.

Part of our criticism of our Prime Minister, who has had a few remarks addressed to her by my hon. Friends, is that sometimes she does not seem to appreciate the scale of events. But then, in the next breath, she seems to say that she has been responsible for all the wonderful things that have happened. I have no doubt that, if the second coming happened during her period in office, she would immediately claim that it was all due to the operation to her housing policy of no room at the inn, and continue to go on pressing her claim of being responsible for all today's momentous achievements. As I say, a few others, in addition to Mr. Gorbachev, have played a part in the affairs of Europe. When the Berlin wall came down, no man in Europe had a better right to rejoice than Willy Brandt, in view of the part he played as major of Berlin and the manner in which he kept the cause of democracy alive in Berlin and in Germany throughout his life. President Havel must take great credit for events in Czechoslovakia in recent times. All those who talk about German rearmament and unity should read carefully reports in the United States about what he has said on that subject. He is trying to instruct us in these matters.

Our Prime Minister should have a little humility. I was horrified to read the speech that she made to the Board of Deputies of British Jews recently. I read every word of it. I am amazed at the deductions that she fails to draw from the position on nuclear armaments and the whole nuclear situation. The right hon. Lady just repeats the old formula about our sticking by our nuclear deterrent. She spoke of

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a few other countries that would soon have nuclear weapons, and she did not seem terribly concerned about that.

The right hon. Lady does not seem to know, even now, that we are signatories of the non-proliferation treaty and that, if we are to abide by that treaty, we are committed to trying to get rid of nuclear weapons altogether. If we refuse to go ahead with that, not merely shall we be in breach of our solemn undertakings--anyone who reads the document will see that what I am saying is the truth--but we shall be helping to unleash the spread of nuclear weapons to other countries, some of which she mentioned in her speech to the board of deputies.

This is surely a moment when we should return to the question of how we are to get rid of nuclear weapons altogether, particularly as we have the scientific means of doing that, being the means of inspection. There is no greater advocate of nuclear disarmament in the full sense of commitment to the non-proliferation treaty--the Soviet Union is also committed to that treaty--than Mr. Gorbachev. One of the best ways for us to react to the statesmanship that he has shown in these matters would be to respond on that subject. Instead of doing that, the right hon. Lady turns her back on it and does not show any interest in it.

My right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) gave an account of some of the new structures that will be needed to deal with this great new situation and he spoke of how to make the best use of them. There is one institution that I believe we should reconsider for the kind of framework in which we wish to see the new Europe--indeed, the new world-- rebuilt. In addition to the institutions to which my right hon. Friend referred, this is the moment when we should be stressing our allegiance to the United Nations charter. We should restore the United Nations to a more central place in our diplomacy and dealing with the new situation.

If Conservative Members think that such an appeal is idealistic and confined to Labour Members, I ask them to read again the last speech made in the House of Commons by Winston Churchill. He pleaded for the restoration of the authority of the United Nations and said that the moment had come when that could be achieved.

I have previously quoted in the House from that speech by Churchill. He made it at a most significant moment in the history of Parliament. Not only was it his last speech here, but he said that he was impressed and oppressed by the dangers of the nuclear arms race which he saw before him. He thought that a bigger effort should have been made to restore decent relations with the Soviet Union. That was just after the death of Stalin, and he said that he had been stopped--"bitched up" was the phrase he used ; he used it not in the House but elsewhere--by the Foreign Office, but I will not now go into that.

I ask the House, indeed the whole country, to take note of what Winston Churchill said in 1953 at what was then an historic moment, like the one we face now. Speaking of the initiative that he had wanted to take with the Soviet Union, he said :

"It might have meant a real UNO, with Russia working with the rest for the good of Europe. We would have promised them that no more atomic bombs would be made, no more research into their manufacture. Those already made would be locked away. They would have had at their disposal much of the money now spent on armaments to provide better

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conditions for the Russian people. I trust the opportunity may not slip away".--[ Official Report, 27 October 1987 ; Vol. 121, c.231.] That was Churchill's view of the prospects and possibilities in 1953, but it did slip away and the chance of detente was lost. I am not saying that that was all due to actions here or the impositions or chains that were placed on Churchill. Partly, no doubt, it was due to what the Russians did. Churchill underlined the need for a different attitude. He saw the possibilities that existed at the time. Now we have a new chance to do it.

Mr. Nigel Forman (Carshalton and Wallington) rose

Mr. Foot : I will not give way. I have in total only 10 minutes in which to speak.

The fear of many of us at this moment of great opportunity for the whole world--this is not merely an argument across the parties--is that the Prime Minister is restoring in the Cabinet the very conditions that have led to so many catastrophes before. The right hon. Lady has torn up the idea of proper Cabinet government. That is why we got into the Falklands war--that was the conclusion reached by the committee that looked into it. Time and again the Prime Minister has strayed from the proper idea of settling matters as Cabinet government decisions. I do not say that because I respect all the other Members of the Cabinet, although they are better than she is. I do not believe that the original decision that we would break with the other countries of Europe over sanctions on South Africa was taken in the Cabinet. It was taken by the right hon. Lady, and all the others followed behind. It has been a miserable affair that they should have followed her in that way.

Similar dangers for us lie in Europe as we come to deal with the present situation. More and more people in Britain, and certainly in the House, are losing confidence in the way in which the Prime Minister deals with issues. We thought a few months ago that proper Cabinet government was being restored in Britain, but we have seen in recent weeks that it has been torn away. We can see how damaging that can be because it removes any possibility of putting before the Cabinet the proper consideration of all the present issues. At no time would it be more dangerous for the Prime Minister to have such power and use it in such a way than at this moment, when we have the best opportunities for our country, as well as Europe, that we have had for generations. That is why I urge the Government to listen to what we say in this debate.

7.20 pm

Mr. Ray Whitney (Wycombe) : I agree with the right hon. Member for Blaenau Gwent (Mr. Foot) that we live in exciting and challenging times. The people of the eastern European countries, the Baltic republics and Russia are throwing off the shackles of Marxism and Socialism, which have been shown to be manifest failures. That is what is exciting and we must rise to the challenges presented to us. In the whirligig of the unique time facing us, we must find policies, but they are extremely difficult to determine.

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We must avoid the traps either of reacting too quickly to situations which may turn out to be bubbles which burst at a touch or of missing opportunities by reacting too slowly. It has been my fear so far that the Government have not yet got the policy right and steered a correct course between those two types of rapids and rocks on which the policy could founder. I was delighted with what my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary offered the House this afternoon. He gave a clear indication that Government policy is now on the right course.

There are three issues on which we should focus. The first, on which there should not be change, is the crucial importance of the European Community. Its role has always been vital. Most Conservative Members, though not all, have recognised that. We live in a tri-polar world. Happily and hopefully we are talking not about war, but about the economic and commercial realities that face us in the tri-polar world of Japan and the Asian states, North America, and western Europe. It is crucial that we continue to play our role in the development of the European Community.

One danger that we face is that there are voices on both sides of the House and in all parts of the media from time to time, seeking to use the opportunity of the developments in eastern Europe to suggest that the European Community is not as important as it was. They suggest that more means better and we should relax our moves towards a single European market, 1992 and European monetary union. I am quite certain that that is wrong. I am certain that a major contribution that we must make in the interests of this country's citizens, the stability of western Europe and Europe as a whole, is to ensure that the move towards the European Community continues. That will offer the sort of opportunities for which many in eastern Europe are looking.

Secondly, how wrong the right hon. Members for Leeds, East (Mr. Healey) and for Blaenau Gwent (Mr. Foot) were to suggest that there should be drastic cuts now in this country's defence forces. That should not happen too quickly. The military realities have not changed sufficiently. There is a tendency in the West to be bemused by Mr. Gorbachev. Much though we respect and admire his political agility and some of his objectives, we should not forget that Gorbachev remains, he would say, a Soviet patriot. Some of the non-Russian states of the Soviet Union might challenge that, but he is certainly a Russian patriot and he would claim to remain a Leninist, with the techniques and tactics inherent in that creed. There are great dangers in suggesting that our interests are necessarily identical with those of Mr. Gorbachev. The responsibility of western Governments remains the preservation of western security. That is where our responsibility lies, not necessarily in the survival of Mr. Gorbachev. In all that he has done, his list of failures must be seen as considerable by any Russian, let alone non-Russian, member of the Soviet Union. I was delighted that my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary stressed the dangers of seeking to equate or to see some symmetry between NATO and the Warsaw pact when clearly there is none ; NATO, as a willing and voluntary combination of nation states, is totally different in nature from the Warsaw pact. Changes must come, but gradually, in the light of reality, not the wishful thinking that we have heard from the Opposition Members.

Thirdly, we need to change our attitude towards the two Germanies and modify our fears about their

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unification. We all recognise that fears still exist. That point has been made many times in the debate. However, insufficient credit has been given to the remarkable transformation of Germany since the war and the way in which democracy has taken deep and genuine root in that country.

We should recognise the historical reality that democracies do not become aggressive. There are very few historical examples of that. History also teaches us that past enemies can become firm allies in the future. Our relation with France, if it teaches us nothing else, should teach us that. We are in grave danger of exaggerating the spectre of a unified Germany. The two Germanies, unified, will have a great deal of work to do to make the union work. The East German economy represents only 8 per cent. of the gross national product of West Germany. Stimulating and bringing East Germany up to the European Community standard will absorb West Germany's investment surplus. One estimate is that it will take about 10 years to achieve that, and I believe it.

It is also important to consider the population. Germany is the largest of the European countries, but it is not a super power. Compared with Japan, it is not even an economic power. The population of a combined Germany would be about 80 million, but the population of both Germanies is declining and by the turn of the century it will be about 76 million, as against a forecast combined population of France and the United Kingdom of 115 million. That puts the matter in perspective.

I was delighted to hear my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary state clearly that one way forward in the future must be closer collaboration between France and the United Kingdom. Every European to whom I speak in the European Community cries out for Britain to play a positive role, and to continue to play a more positive role, in the functioning of Europe. There is no time now to get embroiled in the mysteries of the exchange rate mechanism and the social charter. The thrust must come from us. We must not be put of by phoney challenges to sovereignty. Sovereignty and national identity are important, but no Frenchman, Italian or Dutchman considers himself threatened by the unity that is developing in Europe. I do not know what sort of union it will be--no one can know that--but the work of building the European Community is vital and must go on. We have a crucial contribution to make to the development of Europe and a response to make to the extraordinary and stimulating events in the eastern European countries. They would recognise that contribution. It would benefit them and give them an objective to which to aspire and a bloc with which to trade. It would also operate as a force for the free market and be yet one more demonstration, if that were needed, that Socialism, Marxism and Leninism are bankrupt philosophies and that it is the free-market principles for which we stand that offer peace and prosperity.

7.29 pm

Mr. George Galloway (Glasgow, Hillhead) : I have just spent four days in a two-star hotel in Romania--an anti-junket--and it is about Romania that I want to talk in this important debate.

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I could not, in the 10 minutes available to me, describe the grotesque, bizarre and unbelievable character of the Ceausescu regime in Romania, the legacy of which I saw in those four days. Words simply fail me.

Some hon. Members may have read Malcolm Bradbury's marvellous satire "Rates of Exchange". It is said that he used Romania as the model for the people's republic in that book. If he did, he was not required to tax his imagination in the writing of it. It will be remembered that that mythical people's republic, Slaka, a net exporter of beets and brown suits and a net importer of everything else, where ballet and opera were good but footwear scarce mostly going for export, is a pretty good pen portrait of the grimness of Romania.

The first important point that I want to emphasise is the need to appreciate that those Romanian Christmas days that shook the world do not mark the end of the revolutionary upheavals in Romania. There remains in that country a deep and dangerous polarisation. The National Salvationist Front Government, which includes the leaders who came to the fore during the revolution, other intellectuals and technocrats, and key military officers who distinguished themselves in that fierce fighting, are, I found, trying hard to stabilise the situation in Romania. They have called an election for a constituent assembly for 21 May. They are doing their best and deserve our support.

There are forces at work in Romania, some of whom took part in the revolution and others who did not, who evidently do not want to wait for the elections but rather to continue the politics of the street. Some hon. Members may have seen pictures of the events that I witnessed last Sunday in the Piazza Victoreie in the centre of Bucharest when a mob invaded and ransacked the Government's headquarters. It was not a pretty sight. I talked to many leading members of the Government and I remain impressed by their determination to keep the country stable and to reach those elections.

The Foreign Secretary talked about some of the uglies that are coming out from underneath the stones as a result of the revolutionary upheavals in central and eastern Europe. One that is very present and important in Romania is the spectre that haunted Europe long before Communism haunted Europe, and that is anti-semitism.

I had long discussions with the representatives of the Jewish community in Bucharest. In 1939, there were 800,000 Jews in Romania, and at the end of the war there were 400,000. The pogroms remain vivid and lurid in the minds of the Jewish community. The so-called Christianism and nationalism of some of the historical parties and forces in Romania that are now coming to the fore are giving real cause for concern to the remaining 20,000 members of the Jewish community. They told me that they regard the Iliescu National Salvation Front Government as sometimes the only thing that stands between them and the return of pogroms to the streets of Bucharest. I wish that I had more time to develop that point, but I hope that the Minister is listening, because much western support is now going to those Christian nationalist forces. The Jewish community is worried, for example, about some of the broadcasts on the Romania service of the BBC, the earlier praise for which I identify with. But the Romania service seems to be giving some cause for concern ; I leave that with the Minister for him to think about.

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The most dramatic matter that I want to deal with in the few minutes available to me is the catastrophe of AIDS, on the brink of which Romania finds itself. Some hon. Members will have seen pictures and read articles in recent weeks about the situation there which has resulted from transfusions of infected blood into poor, malnourished and orphaned children in Romania. Because the Ceausescu regime could not feed those children, it injected them with 25 ml of blood at a time in an attempt to nourish them. Massive amounts of that blood now turn out to have been infected with HIV and the children of Romania are, in large numbers, falling prey to that infection.

I talked to a French child AIDS expert, Dr. Christian Courpotin from Trusseau hospital in Paris and Dr. Ion Petrascu, who have been doing some limited testing, and the results are staggering. In just a few weeks they have definitely shown 1,000 little children to be HIV-positive and, from their current testing, a likely figure of 2, 000 children, with evidence now emerging of vertical transmission of the disease with devastating results. They have not even started testing the adults from whom the blood injected into the children came.

To put the problem into perspective, the tiny Black sea port of Constanta has more child AIDS victims than the entire metropolis of Paris. That is only one of the few sites where testing has taken place.

I visited the Victor Babes hospital in Bucharest. I have seen some appalling sights in my life, I have walked through the killing fields of the famines of Ethiopia and the Sudan, but I have never seen a more distressing scene than ward D1 of that hospital, where 80 tiny babies, stricken with AIDS, are lying waiting to die. Because the nurses do not know or understand, they are dressed as if they were on a space mission. They are terrified of the babies, scarely touching them, never mind giving them a cuddle.

Those children have no parents. They have had no human love or kindness. They are simply lying there waiting to die. There is not a teddy bear in the hospital. The lucky few have a balloon in their cots. Instead of nappies, rags are wrapped around them 10 to 15 times a day by terrified nurses.

I like to hope that the British Government and the western community can make a specific response to the problems of AIDS children in Romania, because I can assure the Minister that there is an impending catastrophe. Britain has donated 2 million syringes to Romania to help combat the problem, but they have not yet arrived. Plenty of people asked me about them when I was there. That was a welcome response from the Government, but I hope that they will look at the matter again. I hope that the private sector and the public will look again to see how we can respond. To see 13- month old children who look 70 just lying there waiting to die was very distressing indeed.

The situation in Romania is still unfolding. It is clear that the earthquake of 22 December was not the final one. There is a political fault line in Romania. We do not know, and it is not our business, what the Romanians' final political decision will be, but it is important for us in the West to respond positively to the Romanian Government's appeals for help on the economy and in the health sector and to intervene with caution in their internal politics in the way that I have been describing.

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We should extend the hand of friendship to Romania. It is an important country with an innovative, bright and enthusiastic population. We can make a good friend there. We have made a fair start, but I hope that the British Government will try to do better still.

7.39 pm

Mr. William Cash (Stafford) : I wish to speak mainly about balance-- the balance of argument and the balance of power in Europe. We have seen momentous changes, largely based on an understanding by the people of eastern Europe in particular, but also of the USSR, of the need for freedom of choice and to give full weight to the importance of that and to self- determination. At the same time, I detected in some of the speeches today a rather mean, third-rate appreciation of the importance that the Prime Minister attaches to those matters, without which many of the achievements that have proliferated throughout eastern Europe recently, and which are appreciated in the United States and elsewhere in the world, would not have occurred.

It does not take much imagination to appreciate that German reunification will give rise to much argument and dispute. I welcome German reunification as someone whose father was killed in the last world war and who was awarded the military cross for action in Normandy. As I remarked in a previous debate, I now regard the Germans as friends and colleagues. Nevertheless, I make the point that it is important for the Germans to understand the sensitivities on our side of the argument. It is inappropriate to make snide remarks about our Prime Minister or about anyone who takes a perfectly sensible, balanced view of the future of Europe, and to argue that they are adopting a negative, narrow, nationalistic approach. That is neither true, fair, nor balanced.

I invoke a German in my argument. Are the remarks of Mr. Gu"nther Grass to be dismissed? He advised caution. He said much more, and those who wish to read his article in The Times are welcome to do so. The Germans that I have met fully appreciate, perhaps better than some right hon. and hon. Members who have spoken today and in previous similar debates, that Germany should be more sensitive in its approach.

In the context of the wider Europe, to concentrate on the one aspect of institutional changes and the development of a federal Europe is itself not necessarily in the interests of Germany. We should give consideration to a freer, more liberal, looser association with other countries, not only in our own interests but in those of Germany itself. The enormous economic power and engine that Germany now has at its disposal could prove a disadvantage to that country if it led to envy, jealousy and all the other characteristics which led people to fear Germany in the past. It is for such reasons that I believe that we should not go down the path of creating a German-dominated federal system.

I was interested to hear the balance struck in the speech of my right hon. Friend the Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) and the emphasis that he placed on the word "involvement". I am on record as encouraging Members of Parliament to emphasise that word in relation to Europe. We need to be involved because we need to understand, but in understanding we do not have to be subsumed. We must keep that at the forefront of our thinking at this volatile and difficult time.

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In the context of the thrust and drive towards the markets of eastern Europe, it would be as well if the countries of the East themselves would apportion the investment made in them by other countries as equally as possible, and not just rely on the impetus and initiative already taken by Germany. It is essential to achieve a balance in eastern Europe as well as in western Europe.

My other point arises out of an article in The Times on 14 February by Helmut Schmidt and Giscard d'Estaing. It was depressing and disappointing because it seemed to assume that the future of the European Community depends on a Franco-German axis. Nothing will be more divisive than if countries congregate in the context of the developments desired--by Jacques Delors and the Commission, among others--and create a combination of the economic strength of East and West Germany, which, combined with their voting strength on the basis of Franco-German unity and other alliances that they could develop, would cause serious concern to the other members of the Community. I do not regard that as very communautaire.

We must strive for a reciprocal, mutual balance. That is the key. At the same time, we must provide a bulwark against over-domination by any one country by associations between ourselves and Hungary--of the kind that my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Corporate Affairs tried to achieve on his great visit to that country--Czechoslovakia and Poland, and even with Yugoslavia, Turkey and EFTA countries. That would offer a natural balance in economic terms to the strength and power that will otherwise be concentrated in a reunified Germany moving towards the East and dominating its markets.

It is equally important to remember our connections with the United States. Some complain that we have been moving away from a special relationship with the United States, and opinion polls suggest that the Americans believe that Germany will dominate the new Europe and that they will have to look to Germany rather than to the allies of previous decades. For decades, if not for generations, we have had a relationship with the United States whereby it sent its people over here to help us for the prime reason that we shared common values and interests of a kind for which the people of eastern Europe are striving and which we must help them to achieve.

It is a matter of the greatest importance for us to ensure that we do not allow the other members of the European Community to divorce themselves from the United States. We are living in a global village and we have a mutual interest not only in fair and free trade but in security. We must do all that we can to ensure that the Community plays an integral part in the developing and evolving world that we shall inhabit by the year 2000, but without in any way relinquishing our right, based upon self-determination within the Community, to make major decisions of our own.

Finally, it is important that the German people should be aware of the sensitivities that the question of Poland arouses and to understand that it is not just a question of borders. It is also about feelings. We must ensure that the Germans understand that the balance of power and the balance of opinion belong to all sides in the Community.

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