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Mr. Julian Critchley (Aldershot) : If my hair is as red as my suit, it is due not to vanity but to enemy action.
The hon. Member for Bristol, South (Ms. Primarolo) asserted that wars solved nothing. She is wrong, for on occasion wars do provide a solution. One might argue that the Great War solved nothing and only postponed a second world war, but the hon. Lady cannot assert that the second world war solved nothing when in fact it brought the downfall of the Hitler regime.
It is clearly true that wars are much easier to start than to finish, and that the objectives for which countries go to war frequently change during the course of the hostilities. Given the likelihood that we shall be at war in a day or two, we should ask ourselves certain questions about the Iraqi situation. If the objective is only to liberate Kuwait--which is clearly a desirable objective--would the allies then be in the position of having to defend a land frontier against an Iraqi counter-attack, and of having to do so indefinitely?
Is it our objective to overthrow Saddam Hussein? If so, one wonders quietly whether there are enough freedom-loving, sensible Iraqi parliamentarians prepared to come forward to administer Iraq in the circumstances of their country's humiliating defeat. However, although these problems are acute, it is not the allies' fault that they should be posed for us to solve. It is the fault of the "thief of Baghdad" himself--Saddam Hussein, whose aggression is clearly unforgivable.
The former leader of the Social Democrats, the right hon. Member for Plymouth, Devonport (Dr. Owen), referred briefly to the position in the Soviet Union vis-a-vis Iraq. How ironic it is too that it should be, and probably now is, in the western interest that the cohesion of the Soviet Union remains a reality. If the Soviet Union were to break into a series of warring, nationalist-based republics, who would keep control of the 12,000 nuclear warheads which the Soviet armed forces possess? I have always been convinced that the most significant and sinister member of the Communist party is the Soviet equivalent of my right hon. Friend the Member for Woking (Mr. Onslow).
I speak as the Member for Aldershot, which is the home of the British Army. We have a thousand Aldershot-based service men in the Gulf at present ; and, over and above that, the Cambridge military hospital, which for years has sustained the national health service locally, has moved lock, stock and barrel to the Gulf. Clearly, local residents
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are anxious that it should return and I have been able to persuade the Minister for Health to give an undertaking that it will reopen. The problem is that we are now obliged to face the real possibility of war. I do not think that the French initiative is especially useful. Clearly we have to avoid linkage where we can. When it comes, the attack must be executed swiftly, because waiting indefinitely would lower the morale of our troops in the Gulf.There is a debate between airmen and soldiers. Airmen believe that they have the power, which might of itself win the war. Clearly, it is more important that the Army moves into Kuwait swiftly behind an air attack, because unless one occupies the enemy's territory there is no point is having soldiers out there.
My hon. Friend the Member for Dumfries (Sir H. Monro) referred to "Options for Change". It would be tactful of the Government, and especially the Minister of Defence, if they stopped speculating in public for the time being about "Options for Change" because soldiers who are going out to the Gulf to fight, and possibly to die, are not a little anxious that they may eventually return to find that the units, regiments and corps to which they belong no longer exist. There is a good case for a peace dividend, on the assumption that all in the garden will be lovely indefinitely, but I think it wise to stop talking for the moment about "Options for Change".
One certainly gets the impression that majority opinion in this country is reluctantly in favour of hostilities. The situation is not of our making but of Saddam Hussein's making. We have a great interest in destroying his chemical, nuclear and biological capability. We shall enter hostilities as a member of the United Nations. What is important about the exercise is that we are in pursuit not of British national interest but of something different, although just as important--the principle of a real world authority, which should be able to protect small nations against large nations and thereby determine and guarantee the freedom of small as well as large countries. That principle is worth fighting for.
8.4 pm
Rev. Martin Smyth (Belfast, South) : This evening's debate has been wide-ranging, fascinating and, at times, confusing. As a father, and also as a minister giving guidance to people, I used to say, "Never threaten a child unless you intend to carry out the threat, and never make a promise unless you intend to keep it." The tragedy is that having told Saddam that he must leave Kuwait by 15 January, if we are not prepared to stand by our word if he does not withdraw, we shall have opened the way for further aggression.
The hidden agenda is not simply Kuwait--and, ultimately, control of international oil--but the struggle for leadership of the Arab nation. That is one aspect which we need to underscore at present because, in the light of the comments of the hon. Member for Bristol, South (Ms. Primarolo), Muslims throughout the world will be bitter as a result of any action taken at this time. We have to remind them, and others, that the aggressor was Saddam, against a Muslim people, the Kuwaitis. Therefore, we have to go beyond the concept of so-called western imperialists--capitalists or Christians, under whatever
guise--oppressing the Arab east. The fact is that there has been naked
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aggression by President Saddam Hussein against the Kuwaiti people and, ultimately, a threat to the Arab world.Some hon. Members have asked about the French proposal as though it was on the table and Saddam had sat down to discuss it and was prepared to accept it. I am reminded that the Secretary-General of the United Nations said that it takes two to tango and that he did not find a lovely lady in Baghdad with whom he could tango. We have to stand by the role of the United Nations. When I visited it in November with other hon. Members, we discovered that the general consensus was that if the United Nations could not deal with this problem it could deal with nothing because this is the first time that there has been unprovoked naked aggression by one member of the United Nations against another. If the United Nations cannot deal with that, its whole structure is threatened.
I ask the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs to suggest to us tonight whether, among the other proposals, there have been any proposals from Algeria and the Yemen, as has been reported in the press, and especially whether he is aware if Her Majesty's ambassador in Sana'a has been given a proposal for the Arab solution in Yemen, because when I was there with another colleague as part of the Inter-Parliamentary Union delegation we heard much of the Arab solution and we pressed to be given details. A solution was presented to us and we asked that it be put in writing and given to the ambassador in Sana'a so that it could be transmitted to the Government, not as the personal comment of an individual or as a foreign commentary, but as a commitment from a nation which was speaking a great deal about an Arab solution. The tragedy of our visit was that we heard people in public criticising the use of force, but in private saying that they did not think that Saddam would be put out of Kuwait without the use of force. They all faced that reality. When people seek a linkage between Israel, Palestine and Kuwait it does not exist merely in the event of war developing but because of what has happened--and has already been mentioned by one right hon. Member tonight, to the best of my memory.
The Palestinians have suffered greatly as a result of the invasion of Kuwait. The finances that were being advanced from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to help them have dried up. Along with others, the Palestinian people must face the harsh reality that the whole region is suffering--not because an independent nation, Israel, has sought to defend its frontiers and in so doing has taken over other territory to protect herself. I believe, as others do, that there will come a time when a peace conference will have to be held to make new arrangements there. Nevertheless, we should bear in mind what was said at two IPU conferences by the Speaker of the Knesset, who had himself suffered in internment camps and who had seen so many of his people suffer in the holocaust. He put it on record that he would never remove a homeland from the Jewish people. Where they live is their own decision ; they can go where they like in a free society. In his view, however, those who talk glibly about a solution should remember that people have a right to live in a homeland. I should like to think that the funds that have been available in the Gulf during past years, and could become available in the future, might be used purposefully to help
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Palestinian refugees to resolve the problems, rather than allowing terrorism to continue and destroy the community.Finally, I must put on record the support of the people in Northern Ireland for our forces in the Gulf. Some of our people are serving with the British forces, and we stand beside them. We recognise, however, that there are others who, looking for peace, fondly believe that it will come as a result of prayers. The hon. Member for Antrim, North (Rev. Ian Paisley) pleaded for a day of prayer to be called by the former Prime Minister, but that has not been done. Perhaps we do not want to bring the Almighty into the matter, but there is a lesson to be learnt from the last world war. Only when our people humbled themselves and sought the help of the Almighty did we begin to be delivered from the dictator, and I firmly believe that only when we humble ourselves again will we see the way forward to success. I remind anyone who takes a jingoistic view--whether in the international forces or in Saddam's regime--of an old biblical quotation, which says, roughly, "Let not him that putteth on his armour boast as he that puts it off."
8.12 pm
Mr. Nigel Forman (Carshalton and Wallington) : I believe that the key reason why this country may find itself involved in war before very long is the overriding need to do all that is necessary to preserve and enforce United Nations collective security in the post-cold war era.
Even at this late hour, we all hope that Saddam Hussein will order an Iraqi withdrawal. He has acted at the 11th hour before, and may do so again. The world community, however, cannot afford to wait indefinitely for economic sanctions to work. That seemed to be the siren song in part of the speech of the Leader of the Opposition, and, indeed, in that of my right hon. Friend the Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Mr. Heath). I believe that they were both wrong, for a delay in the use of force beyond the present cool season in the Gulf could rule out such action altogether.
This is because frontline troops cannot be kept at maximum readiness for ever and have to be rotated. It is because of the political difficulties of holding the United Nations coalition together, especially for Arab states such as Egypt and Syria, whose Governments have problems in holding their peoples under an American-led United Nations banner, and because the Soviet Union itself is in a critical state which means that we can no longer rely on the continuity of Soviet foreign policy. It is also because of the political difficulties of maintaining the resolve of public opinion in free democratic societies with the modern mass media--societies such as the United States and even the United Kingdom.
There is little or no evidence that Saddam Hussein really cares about the fate of his own people, let alone the Kuwaiti people. Indeed, he seems to have an almost infinite capacity to impose cruelty and suffering on others- -witness the cruel and cynical way in which he tolerated perhaps half a million deaths in his own country during the long Iran-Iraq war. Nor does he appear to care a fig for the force of world opinion ; if he did, he would not have flouted no fewer than 12 United Nations resolutions.
My argument was put very well by Albert Wohlstetter in a recent edition of The Wall Street Journal . He said :
"Saddam is likely to tolerate the pain the embargo will inflict primarily on his civil society longer than the domestic
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and international coalition would bear the high political and economic costs of insisting on his getting out without compromise." Nor should we forget, when trying to assess the rights and wrongs of the issue, the way in which the Iraqi president has ruthlessly and cynically shifted his ground in his attempts to justify the Iraqi annexation of Kuwait--a point made very well earlier by my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister. Let me give two examples. Saddam Hussein has for a long time led a secular dictatorship in Iraq, yet we now hear from him and his spokesmen the rhetoric of Islamic holy war. Saddam invaded Kuwait palpably for economic and material reasons ; yet he is now trying to claim that he did it only for the sake of the Palestinian cause. Each of those claims should be treated with the contempt that it deserves.Mr. Tim Devlin (Stockton, South) : It seems to me, and to many academic analysts of the middle-eastern problem, that what Saddam Hussein cares about most is Arab public opinion, and that, if he is allowed to walk away from this crisis having seen off the entire world by way of the United Nations force, he will be an unstoppable engine for Arab nationalism in the years to come and will be very much strengthened.
Mr. Forman : My hon. Friend has made a good point. In the psychological warfare that has been taking place in the last few months, there is clearly an important division between the views of the Governments of many Arab states and the views of the street, as it were. Saddam Hussein is plainly aware of the advantages that he thinks there are for him in playing a demagogic part.
Security Council resolution 678 clearly authorised the use of force by the United Nations coalition. It mentioned the date of 15 January in the hope of concentrating Saddam Hussein's mind. It may still achieve that, but deadlines postponed are deadlines undermined. Delay could fatally damage the credibility of the United Nations' position, and bolster Saddam's confidence and prospects.
Today, the choice between peace and war still lies essentially with Saddam Hussein. In a little while there may be no effective choice, for the reasons that I have given. That will obviously mean a bad outcome for the people of Kuwait, and also for those of Iraq. It will be a setback in the search for a durable settlement in the long-standing Arab-Israeli dispute, and it will probably make the building of new security structures in the whole middle-east region more difficult.
Yet, if it does come to war, the House can best make its contribution by speaking as much as possible with one voice in support of the United Nations and the principles of collective security--and, if necessary, in support of our magnificent troops, if and when they have to go into battle.
8.19 pm
Mr. Peter Shore (Bethnal Green and Stepney) : Democracies do not easily resort to war. Government, Parliament and people have first to be persuaded that the use of force is right and that it has become unavoidable. Although very different views have been expressed in today's debate, that should not subtract from the large area of agreement that exists on both sides of the House. First, we are clear that we are dealing with an act of naked aggression. Kuwait and its people have been attacked,
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occupied and cruelly treated for no reason other than that Kuwait is rich, small and virtually helpless against the armed might of its overpowering neighbour.There have been many acts of aggression since the foundation of the United Nations 45 years ago. However, what has happened in Kuwait is unique in two respects. First, the Security Council of the United Nations is united in its insistence that Saddam Hussein must not be allowed to get away with his conquest, that he must unconditionally withdraw his forces from the whole of Kuwait and that the lawful Government of that country should be re- established. Secondly, it is the first time since 1945 that an aggressor state has sought to change not just the Government of another country or rectify its borders or impose penalties but to destroy and annex the victim nation. That is what Saddam Hussein has attempted to do.
Both sides of the House agree that this relapse into the lawlessness of the 1930s must be halted and that the aggressor must be compelled to withdraw. The House has agreed that action should be taken only with the full authority of the United Nations. My right hon. Friends the Leader of the Opposition and the shadow Foreign Secretary have from the start rightly insisted that there should be clear United Nations authorisation for every measure against aggression. While all parts of the House ardently wish that a solution can be found by a combination of resolute diplomacy backed up by an economic blockade, it is agreed that the military option must be available. The only point of dispute--it is a serious point--that has arisen is not about the use of force but when it is right for that option to be exercised. That argument is finely balanced. There are people of considerable reputation and experience in this country and this House, and in the United States and both Houses of Congress, who have taken the view that it is workable and preferable to maintain the blockade until Saddam Hussein is compelled to withdraw.
I shall not rehearse all the arguments for and against, but I want to add two considerations that in my mind have tilted the balance. First, we all know that on 29 November the Security Council authorised the use of "all necessary means", including force, if Saddam Hussein had not withdrawn by 15 January. Of course, it has been said that that is not a precise ultimatum and that there is no immediate resort to arms from midnight tonight. However, having pronounced a date, the authority of the United Nations is now committed and every day and every week that passes from today will lead to the erosion of United Nations' authority and to mounting tension throughout the middle east and the world.
Secondly, I am persuaded that Hussein means war and wants war. There have been numerous chances for him to avoid a clash of arms and I shall not rehearse them all, but his attitude and commitment cannot be doubted by anyone who watched and heard reports of the UN Secretary-General's visit to Baghdad. The Secretary-General of the United Nations was kept waiting for six hours and then lectured by the aggressor. No wonder Mr. Pe rez de Cue llar put his head in his hands and said that there is little room left for diplomacy. If the French can bring off a last minute coup without loss of credibility to the United Nations' position, like everyone else in the House I would welcome it. However, I do not believe that it will be any more successful than all the other attempts that have been made and all the other missions to Baghdad
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that have taken place. Those who invest their hopes in an economic blockade and believe that it will suffice have to face those facts.Mr. Bowen Wells (Hertford and Stortford) : Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Shore : I beg the hon. Gentleman's pardon, but he knows that I am under great restraint.
There is, I recognise, a minority view in the House and in the country which was demonstrated in considerable numbers on Saturday in Trafalgar square. There are those who have persuaded themselves that the issue is not about Iraq annexing and invading Kuwait but about American concern for the supply of oil. I find that absurd. It is a paradox that the two nations of the industrial world--Britain and America--who have or could easily obtain their own supplies of oil have been most active in organising the military resistance to Saddam Hussein. Far from being the selfish pursuit of United Kingdom and United States oil supplies, it is because we know from our experience in 1974 and 1979 that it is the world economy, including western Europe, eastern Europe, Japan and still more the non-oil developing countries, that will be most grievously affected that we are concerned that the price of oil should not be driven up and that supplies should not be intercepted as they were so tragically in 1974.
There are those who have deceived themselves or are deceived by Hussein's propaganda that there is a direct link between his aggression in Kuwait and the occupation of the west bank by Israeli troops. Not one Iraqi has been killed or injured in the struggle for Palestinian self-government, but hundreds of thousands of casualties have been inflicted upon others and upon themselves by Iraqi internal repression, by its vicious use of force against its own Kurds, by its eight-year war against Iran and, most recently, its cruel conquest of Kuwait. No one with any knowledge of recent middle eastern history and United Nations interventions there can possibly believe that the unacceptable situation on the west bank arose from a simple act of Israeli aggression or that the Arab nations have accepted what is required of them under Security Council resolution 242.
If--in the next few days or, at most, the next few weeks--war proves unavoidable, it will not be a war waged for imperialist greed or a selfish desire to corner the oil supply of the Gulf but a war for the central purpose for which the United Nations was founded. It will be a war against aggression and to establish the rule of international law and the authority of the United Nations. It will be a war to rescue the damaged and abused people of Kuwait. There can be no crocodile tears about that. They have been damaged, ravaged and abused. It will be a war in which the sacrifices made by those directly involved will earn and deserve the gratitude of their fellow citizens and the world community.
8.27 pm
Sir Richard Luce (Shoreham) : This is a sombre occasion against a background in which we may in a short time ask our service men to risk their lives for their country. It is right that every viewpoint reflected in the Chamber today should be heard and treated with respect. We have heard a great variety of views. I agree
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wholeheartedly with the views expressed by the right hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Stepney (Mr. Shore), who has injected a sense of reality in the debate when we had sensed a degree of self-delusion about what is happening in Iraq under the leadership of Saddam Hussein.We are facing one of the most challenging post-war tests for the United Nations and for all the 30 or so countries involved in the military force in the middle east. It is a unique opportunity for the United Nations to re -establish international law and order in the middle east.
It is nearly six months since the invasion took place. We are entitled to ask ourselves at this stage what evidence is available to suggest to us that Saddam Hussein may in the near future withdraw peacefully from Kuwait. If we examine that question, it is hard to believe that he will do so. One has only to look at his position. He has abused human rights in Kuwait and has decimated the country. One has only to look at the firm entrenchment of his massive forces around Kuwait and his refusal to accept Kuwait's right to exist. Over the past five and a half months he has refused to accept Kuwait's right to exist as an independent nation. He has refused to budge one inch in discussions with several leaders of the western world. His rhetoric is extreme and becomes more extreme and more provocative, and he invokes God to his cause. Despite the fact that many people suggest that he wishes to do so, he has made no attempt to save face. In the past few days, he showed utter contempt for the
Secretary-General of the United Nations. In doing so, he treated the United Nations and the rest of the world with contempt. He appears to dismiss, with contempt, the wider consequences of his actions, such as the flow of thousands of refugees from his country, the suffering that that has caused and its effect on the neighbouring country of Jordan. His actions affect world oil prices, which in turn affect the economies of the third world and eastern Europe, which are struggling to achieve economic development and a better standard of life. That shows that the long-held fears of other Gulf states--that Suddam Hussein and Iraq pose a threat to their independence-- are justified. Saddam Hussein's record gives us no sense of hope. Throughout most of his presidency, he has been in conflict of one kind or another ; for example, the treatment of his own people and the Kurds, and the Iran-Iraq war, in which at least 100,000 Iraqis and 250,000 Iranians were killed. That was of no benefit to his people or to anybody in the middle east.
It is right to respect the views of those who say that if we allowed sanctions a little longer to work they would have their effect. We must examine that carefully. I have found no evidence to suggest that by prolonging this in the hope that sanctions will have their effect Saddam Hussein will withdraw. If he does not withdraw against the background of the past few weeks and the deadline of 15 January imposed by the United Nations, he is not likely to withdraw in the foreseeable future. In addition, we must remember the world's experience of sanctions being imposed in the 1930s and the post-war years.
Mr. Winnick : Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that, if Saddam Hussein wanted to avoid war, even at this late hour he would have made it clear that he accepted the French proposals in outline? Is he aware that there has been no response to those proposals from Baghdad today? It is quite clear that he wants war.
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Sir Richard Luce : If that is so, it is simply further evidence, and the House deludes itself if it thinks that he is likely to change his mind at the last moment, although we must all pray that he does. We are faced with the prospect that we may need to liberate Kuwait--"liberate" is the most important word--thereby giving greater hope and protection to the smaller states of the world and the interests of international order. There are no precise historic parallels, but we must learn the lessons of the 1930s and the history of Czechoslovakia. If we do not act positively now, the danger of war at a later stage is that much greater.On 28 November 1988, an Arab leader said in a speech to Arab lawyers :
"An Arab country does not have the right to occupy another Arab country-- God forbid, if Iraq should deviate from the right path, we would want Arabs to send their arms to put things right." Saddam Hussein made that speech. It is right that he should heed his words now, or pay the price that he anticipated. If he refuses to do so, we shall find ourselves near the time when we must liberate Kuwait. In so doing, it must be right that we should let the world know that, in the aftermath of the withdrawal from or the liberation of Kuwait, the United Nations, Britain and the other nations participating in the forces there are ready to work with the forces of moderation in the middle east to help to construct a more stable middle east. Britain's past role in the middle east has been singularly important. We helped to create Iraq and Israel and to protect the Gulf states. We have a heavy responsibility and duty on our shoulders to work to create good from tragedy.
8.36 pm
Mr. Jim Sillars (Glasgow, Govan) : Many states and many individuals have been involved in the process that finally took Saddam Hussein into Kuwait. I want to make it perfectly plain that we believe that in the final analysis one person will decide for war or peace--Saddam Hussein.
I shall quote from a bulletin called "Voice of the Arab World", which is produced by a British organisation. It produced an intelligence report in December that illustrates my point about several people being involved in the process that brought us to the present situation. It says :
"File Five : Washington and Whitehall policy up to 25 July. The Americans are not the only ones who at one time or another took' to Saddam Hussein. A former British ambassador to Baghdad, during his time there, escorted David Mellor, then British Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, in to see the president. The ambassador said later : It was a very sympathetic, encouraging meeting. Iraq was one of Britain's most valued trading customers. She remained the stalwart enemy of Iran. Add that background to the buoyant, self-confidence of Mellor and you have the ingredients for a cordial meeting between two interesting and intelligent men.' "
The article points out that, while the Iraqis were massing on the Kuwaiti border--apparently the CIA told Washington of that, but it either could not or did not want to hear--
"the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie met Saddam on 25 July at a time when his tanks were lined up on the border. Her recorded words were : The United States has no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts like your border disagreement with Kuwait.' The ambassador thereby emphasised to Saddam an U.S. hands off' policy in the Arab Gulf. She pressed on to make two other points : I have been instructed by Secretary
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of State Baker to emphasise and underscore this message to you. I am under instructions from President Bush to seek better relations with Iraq.' ".I draw the House's attention to the word "conflicts" in the statement made by the US ambassador to Saddam Hussein. Many people believe that that was the green light for the border dispute and that the real problem is that Saddam Hussein went beyond the border that was in dispute. Whatever contribution other people may have made to the stimulation of his ambitions, ideas or false information, Saddam Hussein is the person who will decide for war or peace.
I have not evaded or avoided the possibility of military force being employed against Saddam Hussein. Nor am I sanguine about the amount of time that is available to us. It is a purely personal judgment, but I believe that if he is still in possession of Kuwait after Ramadan there will be no prospect of getting him out. If we are honest, we are all aware that the coalition which gathered around the United States and the United Kingdom is shaky and may not last long. Are we at the final moment? Are we at the point when we can conclude that there is no alternative, barring unleashing force against Saddam Hussein? The Scottish National party and I believe that we are not. Earlier this afternoon, the right hon. Member for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Mr. Heath) mentioned President Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis. The important formula for Kennedy was, "Never put your adversary in a corner that he cannot come out of. Always leave him some means of escape." That has not happened in our relations with Iraq over this problem.
I have just been passed a note saying that the French initiative has totally collapsed, which I very much regret. I do not want to go into whether it collapsed because of problems in the Security Council or because Saddam Hussein said he did not want anything to do with it. I am not in a position to relay that information to hon. Members.
It is a great tragedy that the French initiative was not picked up immediately it became known because it had two important elements, one of which was withdrawal. A BBC translation of the initiative states that its purpose is
"To invite Iraq to announce the intention of withdrawal without further delay. The intention to withdraw to a scheduled calendar and begin massive and immediate retreat".
I disagree with the Prime Minister, who said this afternoon that the wording undermined the United Nations' resolutions. It does nothing of the kind.
The second element of the French initiative was a call for a middle east peace conference. Perhaps the Foreign Secretary and the Government will retort that the concession of a peace conference would give some success to an aggressor. I read the Foreign Secretary's article last week in The Scotsman and his speeches and those of the Prime Minister. They talk as though some great, sacrosanct moral imperative is involved.
International affairs have nothing to do with morality ; they are founded on state interest and the practical limits of power that can be applied in a given situation. That is why the events in East Timor did not produce the response made to the Kuwait invasion. That is why Lebanon could be invaded by Syria and Israel without a similar response. That is why we have had diplomatic rapprochement with Syria, which not long ago was a terrorist state. That is why
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tonight all we can do is wring our hands about the Baltic states rather than urge the United Nations to send a peacekeeping force to intervene.If people want to move nearer home on the issue of state interests and the contradiction with morality, let them remember what the House did in respect of the Falklands and compare that with what we did in respect of Hong Kong where, because of our perceived state interests and domestic interests, we were willing to allocate 3.5 million Hong Kong Chinese to a regime which shot young students dead in a square in Peking.
Hon. Members say that the United Nations charter is extremely important and that we will go to the end to defend it. Let us take a hypothetical situation, which could become a reality--the Ukraine, where a range of people have always argued that in no circumstances is the Ukraine other than an independent area which should never have been taken into the Soviet Union. The Ukraine has a seat in the United Nations. What happens if they declare their independence and invoke the charter? Everyone knows that no peacekeeping force would be sent, because of the practicalities of the limitations on power.
Mr. George Galloway (Glasgow, Hillhead) : I very much admire the hon. Gentleman. This is one of the best speeches that I have heard this evening, not least because I did not get to make mine in this, the third of the Gulf debates. So magnificent a speech is it that I am bound to ask the hon. Gentleman a question. I shall go into the Lobby to vote against a war and against the Government. Will the hon. Gentleman and the Scottish National party be there with me?
Mr. Sillars : I shall deal with that point when I come to the end of my speech--[ Hon. Members :-- "Come on."] I am not subject to the 10 -minute rule.
Mr. Cryer : Say, "Yes, I will" or "Yes, we will."
Mr. Sillars : I shall answer the question put by the hon. Member for Glasgow, Hillhead (Mr. Galloway) at the end of my remarks. I want to discuss the issue in terms of the reality of state interests. State interests are involved with the west. If Kuwait were noted for its wheat and not its oil, there would be no crisis and no army. Is it really in the best interests of the west to have war before every aspect of diplomacy is exhausted? That is a key question.
I want to be specific about Palestine. I have heard people say that there is no linkage, and I would not pretend that Saddam Hussein went into Kuwait to promote the Palestinian issue to the top of the world agenda--of course he did not. But he has now introduced the Palestinian issue. He has opened up a possible avenue of escape for himself. Bearing in mind the Kennedy dictum, should we open up that avenue even further to allow him to escape?
Some people say that there is no link, but anyone who knows anything about the middle east knows that the Palestinian issue is a great current that wholly determines, shapes and forms the political climate of the whole middle east. Perhaps it is put better than I can put it if I quote Patrick Cockburn in an article in The Independent today. Referring to linkage, he said :
"The difficulty is that the security problems of the Middle East are both linked. The fact that the Iraqis did not originally
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invade Kuwait on behalf of the Palestinians does not alter this. From the first days after the invasion, Palestinians on the West Bank and in their diaspora throughout the Arab world supported Iraq because they, more than anybody else in the Middle East, have most to gain from a change in the balance of power in the region." There is linkage whether we like it or not. All Arab attitudes have been formed by the events of 1948, 1967 and 1973--that is the Palestinian issue.There are risks. Suppose that we get an agreement and a diplomatic move which allows Saddam Hussein to retreat and he becomes some sort of hero-- partial loser but also partial winner. Risks are involved, but they must be balanced against the other risks inherent in the consequences of war unleashed in the middle east. All major conflicts generate death and destruction, but they also whip up political shock waves which knock over previous political structures. Nothing is ever the same after a war. This war will release a shock wave in a region littered with regimes lacking legitimacy in terms of popular support--a region in spiritual, intellectual and political turmoil, one of the most unstable in the world.
For those reasons, we do not believe that we should go to war until the exhaustion of every diplomatic effort has been proved. I end by replying to the hon. Member for Hillhead. At business questions yesterday I said that it is a disgrace that this place is being forced to vote on a war and peace issue, with all its complexities--not black and white but shades of grey in between--on a technical motion on the Adjournment. If we vote for the motion with the Government, they will be able to claim that we support them and the leader of the Labour party will be able to claim that we support his war aims which go far beyond those of the United Nations. We cannot go into that Lobby subject to that interpretation. The problem of going into the Lobby with the hon. Member for Hillhead is that we do not agree with some of the things that he and his hon. Friends have said--
Mr. Galloway : No war in the Gulf.
Mr. Sillars : No. The hon. Gentleman must take on board the fact that the right hon. Member for Chesterfield (Mr. Benn)-- [Interruption.]
Mr. Speaker : Order. This is very unparliamentary.
Mr. Sillars : The hon. Gentleman must take on board the fact that the right hon. Member for Chesterfield has been arguing that in no circumstances can one apply force to Saddam Hussein in Kuwait. We do not agree with that, so we cannot join those hon. Members in the Lobby. It would have been far better if we had had substantive motions which could have been amended and on which we could have voted. We will not be manipulated by the Government or by the Opposition Front Bench or by other hon. Members.
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Mr. Peter Temple-Morris (Leominster) : I am somewhat reluctant to intervene in the trials and tribulations of Opposition Members. I hope that the House will calm down and will get back to the subject. Incidentally, it would be no bad thing if the House got back a little to the principles and morals involved as well. The hon. Member for Glasgow, Govan (Mr. Sillars) would not expect me to agree with most of what he said. He took me and the
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House around the world so quickly that we are all dazed geographically and politically by his various examples, apart from being dazed by the trials and tribulations.I should like to think that the hon. Gentleman may be right in believing that we have not yet reached the final moment, but I fear that he is wrong. I was naive enough--I said so publicly as well as privately--to feel that there would be an Iraqi withdrawal at the last minute. I based that view on the fact that Saddam Hussein was not a complete fool. He has conducted himself in a clever and almost crafty way in playing the various forces that have been ranged against him. I thought that Saddam Hussein would not risk the destruction of his country, and the death of so many of his armed forces and of his people. I thought that he would go for the so-called "nightmare scenario", which means a partial withdrawal, and which has scarcely been mentioned in the debate. I believed that he might partially withdraw, but might keep the disputed part of the Rumaila oilfield and the islands. We may even yet have to address that question. I and other hon. Members in the debate are extremely pessimistic. Saddam Hussein appears to have decided that he can better survive as leader of his country--bearing in mind the fate that has awaited Iraqi leaders historically if they got it wrong--after a defeat and after having fought than after a withdrawal from which he gets little or nothing. That is sad, so I agree with the right hon. Member for Plymouth, Devonport (Dr. Owen) that that man intends to fight. We must, of course, try for peace and we must go down various avenues for the extra mile. Some of my hon. Friends may agree that we have been down a lot of avenues and a lot of extra miles.
The present position is that all the initiatives are as nothing. My own pessimism began when I learned of the deplorable way in which the Secretary -General of the United Nations was treated in Baghdad. On the tapes tonight, we heard--this is quite apart from arguing the question of linkage, with which I do not agree--that after the French had put linkage as part of their terms, the French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas said that he had had no tangible response from Baghdad. That is the present position.
The realities are simply these. We are not dealing with what might have been, with whether we could have got something different or with whether, if we had been in charge, we could have done something different. We are faced with an illegal and brutal invasion. We are faced with a second invasion of a different country in a decade. We must face the fact that if nothing is done here, there will be further invasions.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) put the argument well. Against Iraq is ranged the most powerful military force since the second world war. It involves the United States, ourselves and a number of others. It also has the full backing of a world body--the United Nations. To back off now would mean that there would be no world authority left. It would be open season for every dictator and terrorist in the world.
I want to describe what I believe would happen if we backed off. The future would be even more precarious than the future that could await us should there be a war. First, Iraq will take over the military and, increasingly, the political leadership of the Arab middle east and there could never be a more unscrupulous and unprincipled leader. Secondly, the Gulf states are always vulnerable and
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they would collapse unless we stayed there virtually indefinitely. That is not on and would not be a good thing anyway.Thirdly, Israel will undoubtedly be involved in a further middle east war if Saddam Hussein has his way in the present crisis. Fourthly, the forces of Arab moderation and balance will effectively be demoralised. Egypt and Syria will not chance their arm again with the west if we let them down over this, which is a very difficult position for them. Fifthly, as has been so well put recently, not only the prosperous world but the third world will increasingly become dependent on the will of dictators. Sixthly- -a horrifying prospect--Iraq will become a nuclear power.
We must concentrate on the future, whether there is peace or war. It is paramount that we concentrate on gaining a solution--and it will not be easy--to the Arab-Israeli conflict and to the Palestinian position. The participation of the United States, in the same thorough and good way in which it has led the world during the present crisis, is needed increasingly on the issue, which is the rallying cry for much of the trouble throughout the region. The region is divided between the countries which are deprived of wealth and are generally more populated and the countries that are under-populated and extremely wealthy. A more equal distribution of the oil wealth must be worked out across the Arab world.
A further point for the future is that we must establish--whether there is peace or war--a United Nations-backed, mainly Arab peacekeeping force for the area and that force will, of course, be backed by the west. We must encourage political progress in the Gulf states. Whatever can be said about those countries, the inhabitants have not in recent years faced an overwhelmingly democratic future. Last, but not least, there must be far tighter international control of weapons supplied to these countries. They have the money to buy equipment of vast destructive power, but they have few of the skills or the maturity of government which should go with the ability and opportunity to use those weapons. We must aim for all these things in the future.
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