House of Commons Hansard Debates for 23 Feb 1993

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weekend--a feeling of hopelessness, exasperation and frustration. I want to suggest some of the things that I believe should be done. First, we need major changes at the United Nations. In November I went to New York with the Foreign Affairs Committee ; we met Mr. Boutros-Ghali, and the Committee will be reporting in the near future to the House and making its recommendations. Clearly, there continues to be a major cash crisis. That must be put right, and it is hoped that the Americans, in particular, will play their part in this. There is also a major problem with regard to communications. The hon. Member for Stockton, North (Mr. Cook) spoke about that a little earlier. There is clearly a major problem, too, over the control of military forces deployed in various parts of the world by the United Nations, and a great deal has to be done to improve that situation. I believe that the Government should do all that they can as soon as possible to get a new basis for the new role of the United Nations--a good deal of it on the back of "An Agenda for Peace", which I was very glad to hear the Foreign Secretary welcome in his opening speech today.

I return, however, to the issue of sanctions, as they so often constitute the first measure agreed by the international community. We ought to be thinking a great deal harder about how we can make sanctions and trade embargoes a great deal more effective. The imposition of sanctions and embargoes is a vital part of preventive diplomacy. On far too many occasions over the years we have seen the imposition of sanctions which really have not worked.

When I first came into the House, the Conservatives were in opposition and I was one of the 30 Members who voted with the Labour Government to impose oil sanctions on Rhodesia. I still believe that that was the right thing to do. The tragedy of the situation was that the oil sanctions were not properly enforced. That continues to be the problem with sanctions. We all know that, with the exception of oil, the sanctions that have been imposed upon Iraq are not especially effective. We all know that, particularly through Syria, and perhaps through other places, there is a great deal of leakage, which should not go on.

In Yugoslavia, the effectiveness of sanctions can only be described as pathetic. I had an answer from the Government on this only the other day. We know that a large number of our tankers have been going into the former Yugoslavia up the Adriatic. We hear stories and read in the press about convoys of barges doing the same on the Danube. We hear of Iranian aircraft flying into the Muslim areas, and we know jolly well what they will be carrying.

The tragedy is that people tend to dismiss sanctions and embargoes curtly, saying that they do not work and that we should not do any more about the problem, but my question to the Government today is this : should we not be giving a good deal more thought to making sanctions and embargoes more effective than they are? If we could, that would be a great prize, because the more effective one makes sanctions and embargoes, the less need there is for subsequent peacekeeping or even peacemaking arrangements. It is quite useless, having imposed sanctions, to send an American fleet up the Adriatic to monitor what is going on. That is no good at all. One has to be able to enforce the sanctions.

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To my mind, it would improve matters no end if, at the same time as one imposed sanctions, there was automatic deployment of enforcement and supervisory forces in adjoining countries. It is clearly better to do it at that stage, at the beginning, than to try to impose those forces months later when serious shortcomings become apparent. National dignities are much more offended and upset if one then wants to put enforcement and supervisory forces into adjoining countries to see that the sanctions are properly applied.

There are, of course, major problems in doing this. Sanctions can never be made 100 per cent. effective ; we all know that. There are always problems of transhipment, which can be a method of abuse. There is the problem of compensation for losses in adjoining countries, including trade lost through the imposition of sanctions. There was a classic example of that in the case of Jordan and the Gulf situation. Then there is the final difficulty, to which the hon. Member for Stockton, North referred in his notable speech--that of finding suitable troops. This is one of the major problems that the United Nations faces.

There are great advantages in ensuring that sanctions are properly enforced, above all because that does not lead to casualties among the enforcement bodies in adjoining countries. I strongly believe that there are great opportunities for making sanctions much more effective. I greatly welcome the CSCE initiative in appointing a sanctions co-ordinator ; I was glad to hear the Foreign Secretary welcome that today and I know that it was partly through his initiative that it was done. I urge the Government to give a lot more thought to this, because it is a relatively painless way of enforcing the international will.

6.47 pm

Mr. Ernie Ross (Dundee, West) : This debate is a chance not only to assess the participation of our armed forces in peacekeeping operations, but to address the deep-seated and widespread desire of the peoples and nations of the world for some form of collective security. They want a means of ensuring uniform rights and protection for the individual and respect for and compliance with international law. They want to be certain that, if conflicts arise, the suffering of those directly affected, but not directly responsible, will be alleviated quickly and efficiently.

In short, I speak of a new world order, given life by the ending of the wasteful years of cold war stalemate, given energy and sustenance by the allied response to Saddam Hussein's rape of Kuwait, and given hope for the future by continued progress on strategic nuclear arms reductions, by the ever closer co-operation of international agencies and states and, most of all, by the release of the United Nations from a 45-year-long relegation to the periphery of international affairs. There are good intentions and a will to achieve, but no backing and no will on the part of key member states to let the work begin.

I noted with interest that in his address at Chatham house on 27 January this year, the Foreign Secretary dismissed the idea of a new world order as being not helpful, yet he and the Secretary of State for Defence recognise in the public response to each fresh international crisis the must-do- something factor. Yet they fail to realise that, here and abroad, there is a will to accept change for

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the common good. The means exist to achieve that change, provided we grasp the opportunity while the will and determination remains. In "An Agenda for Peace", the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Dr. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, sets out the way ahead, and the British Government should take a lead in promoting and advancing the principles of that agenda. After all, we are a permanent member of the Security Council and we belong to NATO, WEU, CSCE, EC, the Commonwealth and the G7 group. We may be a medium-size power with a developed sense of international responsibility, as the Secretary of State reminded us, but there is no shame in that. If one sits at all the top tables, one has access to all the key players. One also participates in taking decisions that affect a large percentage of the world's population. So we should examine what the British Government are doing to meet the ends set out by the

Secretary-General.

There are several important aspects of "An Agenda for Peace" concerning peacemaking and peacekeeping. Do the Government support the idea of centralising the control of military operations via a military staffs committee? Is it not fair to argue that the problem with United Nations operations in the past has centred on the inability of the participants to communicate and associate in the necessary functions of a complex logistical undertaking, such as humanitarian relief in Bosnia, around a single source?

Does the Foreign Secretary accept that a logical conclusion of the confusion experienced by the United Nations forces in the former Yugoslavia in communicating with each other, let alone with the warring parties, cries out for a centralised structure as part of the United Nations peacekeeping effort based around a major signals unit and expanding to take in infantry, medical and supplies units? Indeed, would it not be advisable, if we are to promote the role of the United Nations in those areas, to take on board all the points mentioned in paragraphs 42 to 54 of "An Agenda for Peace", drawing on the military resources of member states for a permanent standby force, trained and ready to hit the ground running, in response to Security Council resolutions? We welcome NATO's offer to place its resources at the disposal of the United Nations, highlighting the significance of the merging of Britain's foreign policy interests with the roles being created and played by international agencies.

I also read with interest the speech by the Secretary of State for Defence to the Royal United Services Institute in which he made many good points with which I agreed. But I question whether he was correct to say that there was no need to address "Options for Change" and that little could be achieved by setting aside troops for peacekeeping duties. The United Kingdom is the second largest contributor to United Nations operations, with nearly 4,000 personnel committed. Their experience and expertise is highly valued. We can be proud of the role played by our forces in peacekeeping operations and should not shirk from the possibility of expanding that role. After all, even right-wing columnists are beginning to acknowledge the need for a more interventionist United Nations and the promotion of "the right people to the right jobs". The

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British Army, Navy and Air Force are packed with the right people. The Government should, perhaps, accept that "Options for Change" is full of decisions but lacks direction. A blend of foreign and military affairs would be of use to the world as well as to the United Kingdom.

The UN peacekeeping operations cost money, so I urge the Government, who have access to all the key players, to push for the prompt payment of debts. I also urge them actively to consider the direct funding of peacekeeping operations from the defence budget. The idea of a peace endowment fund is also worthy of further consideration. Dr. Boutros-Ghali talked at the UN about an excess of credibility. In his Chatham house speech, the Foreign Secretary highlighted the magnitude of that job, which involved, he said, running a foreign ministry, defence ministry and a world ministry for planning, all without adequate funding. We can play our part by bringing pressure to bear on other member states to pay their fair share and by assisting the Secretary-General in his attempts to streamline the administration in New York and elsewhere. We must also continue to promote the involvement of regional organisations, so allowing the appropriate implementation of UN initiatives at the local level. That should go some way to help clear up confusion over the UN's roles and capacities.

I urge the Secretary of State to advance the principles contained in paragraph 18 concerning the protection of minorities, a factor of great significance in a world ridden with disorder. I hope that, when he replies to the debate, the Minister will clarify the Government's position over the International Court of Justice and will say that we strongly support the implementation of the measures in paragraph 19 of "An Agenda for Peace", at home and abroad, to strengthen further the acceptance of the jurisdication of the court under article 36. While these issues may not appear to be closely linked with peacekeeping efforts, there is clearly a need for the UN to create a feeling of wide-ranging justice in pursuit of Security Council resolutions. It must also instil confidence in the even-handedness of their application.

In that context, my right hon. Friend the Member for Copeland (Dr. Cunningham) explained the fear and concern that currently exists over the situation in the middle east. He spoke of the fear felt by those who had been asked to participate in the continuing middle east peace process and of the concern of their relatives and friends. Somewhere between Israel and Lebanon are 390 of their colleagues. Unless we are totally even-handed over the issue, they may find that their lives are at risk when they return to their homes, especially if some of their friends and neighbours are still stuck somewhere between Israel and Lebanon. For that reason, we must enforce Security Council resolutions in an even-handed way.

In his Chatham house speech, the Secretary of State talked of an imperial role and concluded that it should be implemented only by the international community, with no claims or priviliges as the result. My hon. Friends and I have no difficulty in associating with that idea, and we urge the Government to move further and quicker in pursuit of it.

The men and women who wear the blue beret, whether they are operating in peacekeeping, observing or peacemaking tasks, are the instrument with which the world can restore order and sanity amid chaos. It is achievable. The cost, though high, is worth paying. A new

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world order and a rejuvenated United Nations cannot promise total peace on earth, but we cannot afford to miss the opportunity to advance the peace process further.

6.57 pm

Mr. Peter Viggers (Gosport) : Although the subject is wide, I shall restrict my remarks to Bosnia which, with other members of the Select Committee on Defence, I had the privilege of visiting last week. The situation there is very confused. Reading the newspapers, one might think that there are three sides--the Serbs, the Croats and the Muslims--but it is more complicated than that. The Serbs have received most of the equipment of the Yugoslav national army and its disciplinary procedures, whereas the Croats and the Muslims tend to have local militia raised locally and not always under full control. So the level of discipline depends greatly on the leadership of the individuals in the area.

That makes the whole area extremely dangerous. There are many bombs, bullets and shells, and our troops, faced with that situation, are behaving superbly. We are greatly impressed by all the troops there--the Cheshires, the Royal Irish Regiment and others ; and the Royal Engineers, who have done a magnificent job in building a huge road from Tomislavgrad north--and morale is high. We were greatly impressed by everything we saw.

Our troops have a specific role, which is to assist in the distribution of humanitarian aid. It is a narrow role. Guestimating from various press estimates, about half the aid arrives in the hands of the people for whom it is intended, the starving and those in great difficulty. Much of the food and aid is taken en route. It is estimated that the Serbs allowing food into Sarajevo take between 25 and 40 per cent. of the food as it goes through.

The instructions from the United Nations are that the UN forces should not prevent that food from being taken, because that would be confrontational and provocative, whereas the whole point of the UN role in Bosnia is to be completely independent. They must remain independent because their vulnerability, were they perceived to be taking any side, would be extreme.

We were all shaken to discover that we were walking past armed troops from the Croat national army and even finding them in the same building in Tomislavgrad, carrying weapons. We nodded to them and they nodded back. The same neutrality applied to other militia forces. That is how UN forces have to operate because, if they were perceived as being on one side or another, it would be the end of their role. In such a dangerous situation, what is the possibility of a solution?

The Vance-Owen plan is a solution and, as has been said, it is the best one on the table at the moment. It is perceptive and it deserves our full support, but I have one observation to make. The Vance-Owen plan expects that it would require about 15,000 to 25,000 troops to monitor it. Let us extrapolate our experience in Northern Ireland which is a well-policed Province of 1.5 million people, where there are 20,000 troops maintaining one area in which guns and weapons are not permitted. By comparison, Bosnia has 10 such areas where weapons are rife and where everyone over the age of 16 has a gun. If the Vance-Owen plan were to be implemented, the call for 15,000 to 20,000 to monitor it is an underestimate by a

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factor of about 10. It is more realistic to think in terms of 250, 000 to 500,000 troops if we are seriously to police such an operation.

That underlines the main point--that, if peace is to come to the former Yugoslavia, it will come only with the wholehearted desire of the people of that country--there is no question of peace being imposed from outside. That would not work.

If a solution is not readily available, perhaps we should consider building blocks which are as constructive as far as they go. My right hon. Friend the Member for Westmorland and Lonsdale (Mr. Jopling) made a cogent case for further sanctions and their greater implementation, which I fully support. We must do all that we can to reduce the heavy arms and the armies, and I believe that there is a useful building block to be taken from the arms control measures of the Vance-Owen proposals, even if the proposals themselves cannot be implemented in full.

Perhaps as a minimum lowest common denominator factor, we might need to consider as a building block the creation of Muslim safe areas. The Croats and Serbs each have allies and somewhere to go but the Muslims, who represent 45 per cent. of the people and are the largest single minority in Bosnia, have nowhere to go and represent most of the victims in the current unhappy situation.

Finally, we must consider the economy. Certainly the southern part of Bosnia used to depend crucially on tourism, which has now gone. The biggest show in town, the biggest industry in Bosnia, is now the war and the second biggest is the United Nations humanitarian aid relief. Somehow we have to find ways to develop Bosnia's economy. It is sad, although perhaps good for British industry, that all the food and virtually all the supplies used by our troops in Bosnia come from the United Kingdom. One would like to think that some of the very small amount of hard currency coming into Bosnia from aid agencies and the troops would find its way into the Bosnian economy which desperately needs regenerating.

They are positive building blocks, and I now suggest three actions which could cause a great deal of damage if we were to undertake them thoughtlessly. The first, which was promulgated a month or two ago, was bombing the Serbs wherever they may be with a view to preventing them carrrying out atrocities or continuing their aggression. I think that I am quoting the Foreign Secretary when I say that the concept of bombing the Serbs into submission is ludicrous and will not provide a useful way ahead.

The second is the imposition of no-fly zones. Such a step would lead to our being perceived as being on one side or another. The third is the concept of air-dropping aid, which is not realistic : from a high level it would miss, and from a low level it would be extremely dangerous. The Serbs who are currently preventing humanitarian aid from reaching its destination are unlikely to find a low-flying aircraft less aggressive than a truck as a way of distributing aid, and the risks would be enormous.

I underline once again the vulnerability of the troops, especially the English and French United Nations troops, if a move were made which would cause them to be perceived as being on one side or the other. United Nations forces in Bosnia can succeed in their present role only if they are seen to be independent. We must avoid anything that makes them seem less than independent.

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I am seriously worried about the danger of our being sucked into a wider role. When the Secretary of State for Defence made a statement to the House on 14 January he talked about 2,300 troops. The Foreign Secretary today talked about 2,804 troops in Bosnia, so there has been an escalation without us noticing. The troops are keen and will wish their role to be enhanced because of their enthusiasm, which I greatly applaud. However, they must not allow their enthusiasm to carry us along. The media show us atrocities every day, and there is a great demand for "something to be done". I put a contrary view. The present role is valuable, but we must not drift into a peacekeeping role without a clearly agreed plan which is accepted by all sides. If we later accept a peacekeeping role, it may not be in Bosnia but in Macedonia or elsewhere. We must not allow the present narrow role of distributing humanitarian aid to drift into peacekeeping.

I was so worried that I read carefully the words used by the Minister of State for the Armed Forces in an Adjournment debate on 2 February. He referred to the task force led by HMS Ark Royal and said that its role was

"either to provide additional protection for our personnel or to assist with a withdrawal".--[ Official Report, 2 February 1993 ; Vol. 218, c. 302.]

I suggest that it is completely unrealistic to think that we can distribute humanitarian aid if we need to back it up with 105 mm field howitzers and strike bombers. I am very concerned that we should at all times keep open the option of withdrawal, and I fear that it may come to that.

I hope that the Vance-Owen plan is allowed to succeed, but we must not be sucked into a wider role without thinking through the consequences.

7.6 pm

Mr. Donald Anderson (Swansea, East) : Like many previous speakers, the hon. Member for Gosport (Mr. Viggers) understandably concentrated on Bosnia and made a very sober and realistic analysis of the problems there. Much of the debate has been consensual. The starting point for many hon. Members has been the wish to know ourselves as a country, to know our economic strengths--or, in many cases, our weaknesses--and what we are able to do and, equally, what we are unable to do.

The Foreign Secretary's theme in his Chatham house lecture was fine as analysis, but it was overladen with a certain world-weariness and a minimum of zeal when perhaps a little more zeal might have been called for. The second aspect of the consensus is the background of international disorder : the six months that shook the world in 1989, the end of the Soviet empire and the subsequent problems in eastern Europe, the end of the Soviet Union itself, and areas such as Nagorno-Karabakh and Tadzhikistan which are flaring up and about which the international community can do very little.

The situation poses new questions for the international community, such as the limits of non-intervention and the point at which the international community can establish government where there is no government, as in Liberia and Somalia. It also raises questions about areas in which, because of the intractable nature of the internal problems, it would be unwise on a risk analysis for the international community to respond to television images and the

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impulses of public opinion ; it should perhaps refrain from dealing with such disorder and possibly exacerbating matters.

There is a question of credibility. Failures by an excess of intervention can do immense damage to the international community and to the United Nations. The United Nations and its role has been a proper focus of the debate today. In its totally new and fundamentally changed context, the United Nations is the repository of all our hopes. As the current Secretary -General said, it has an excess of credibility. Just as, according to the Foreign Secretary, we in Britain cannot be everywhere and do everything, so the United Nations cannot be everywhere and do everything. In some cases it will have only a co-ordinating role. It may subcontract the issue to be resolved to an appropriate regional organisation.

However, the United Nations is beset with enormous problems. It has no proper computer infrastructure for keeping in touch with various operations in the field. I understand that the United States State Department has offered to provide that, and I hope that that offer will be speedily accepted. Then there is the problem of the $1 billion arrears in contributions. There are also particular problems involving personnel which we need not dwell on. I have said all those negative things, but the United Nations is the only show in town. It is therefore wholly proper that the international community should consider it the world's best hope, and that we should do everything we can positively to encourage its development.

I recall going to Namibia at the same time as the right hon. Member for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale (Mr. Steel), who knows Africa extremely well. Perhaps the operation of bringing Namibia to independence was too easy, but it was grand to see the enormous enthusiasm and commitment of United Nations personnel on the spot. Having achieved so much in Namibia, they were saying, "Today Namibia, tomorrow we shall go on to the western Sahara and Cambodia". Alas, realism has set in as we reach rather more difficult and turbulent terrains, but it was good to see that degree of commitment and enthusiasm on the part of the United Nations.

We talk about peacekeeping in rather a negative way. Just as peace is not simply the absence of war, so peacekeeping is not simply a question of keeping the sides apart and preventing something worse. One is bound to ask the reasons for doing so. Surely there is a positive element of seeking to build structures which will last while we are involved in the negative side of peacekeeping.

I see that the hon. Member for Arundel (Sir Michael Marshall), the very distinguished international president of the Inter-Parliamentary Union is present. There is an enormous role for the international parliamentary community in establishing the bases of democratic institutions in new countries. I believe fundamentally that the investment in democracy and its institutions is an investment in stability. Democracies tend not to go to war with one another. When there are internal procedures for accommodating disputes, it is less likely that a country will fall apart.

It is extremely important that the relevant international organisations, the Inter-Parliamentary Union, the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, European Parliamentarians for Southern Africa and others gather together in the hope that in the breathing space provided

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by the military they can build up the democratic structures as an investment in democracy. In many places, the United Nations has done that successfully.

Finally, one area which resembles a laboratory experiment going wrong is Mozambique. There was a peace accord in October in Rome after 16 years of brutal civil war which left more than a million people from Mozambique in adjoining countries. People were maimed and had limbs amputated. Everyone's hopes were raised by the agreement in Rome last October, but what have we seen since? After the agreement between RENAMO and the Government of Mozambique and the establishment of the United Nations operation with the awful name of UNOMOZ, which stated that there should be 7,500 United Nations troops in place to maintain the ceasefire, there is not one United Nations soldier there at the moment. Under the terms of the October agreement, there should by now have been the demobilisation of 48,000 of the estimated 80,000 Renamo and Government troops there. Not one soldier as yet been demobilised.

Mr. Jim Lester (Broxtowe) : Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr. Anderson : I am sorry, but I have only 10 minutes and I want to make this one point.

Similarly, the hoped-for elections have again been put off indefinitely. As for the sums voted by the United Nations, a budget of £233 million has been lost in labrynthine discussions in the corridors and committees of the United Nations in New York. It is a disgrace that there has been such delay. As the Italian head of the operation has said, there is now a real danger of Mozambique following the tragic path of Angola where, because there was a cheap operation by the international community, what could have been a major contribution to peace in the region has fallen apart with tragic consequences.

When we consider the categories that the Foreign Secretary properly raised- -I well understand the reasons why he dwelt particularly on Bosnia and the conflict which is so close to us and which could well lead to a war which would have enormous repercussions on us in terms of refugees and so on--we must also examine other areas in the third world where, because of the collapse of the cold war, new conflicts have now emerged. We must look at the bad example of Angola, and draw our conclusions.

7.17 pm

Dr. Charles Goodson-Wickes (Wimbledon) : I welcome the opportunity to take part in a wide-ranging debate on international peacekeeping in the context of foreign policy. There is an inevitable logic in this arrangement, reinforcing the view that our Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence work in rather closer harmony than many of their counterparts in the western world.

The euphoria of the end of the cold war certainly did not last long. Although we heard talk of the new world order during the American presidential campaign, there is an increasing perception that the world is not inherently more stable after the collapse of the Soviet bloc--indeed, quite the opposite. The disintegration of the Warsaw pact brought in its wake instability throughout the former Soviet Union, outright conflict in the Balkans, the redrawing of boundaries in central Europe, and economic and social difficulties in the reunification of Germany.

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As the Soviet threat has disappeared, new and dangerous situations have emerged, and there is an understandable, if misplaced, nostalgia for the certainties of the previous balance of power. Against that background, not of order but of disorder, we re-examine the means of providing international peacekeeping. I shall concentrate on the wider issues before discussing the British role in peacekeeping. The combination of western democracies cutting their forces and their reluctance to put their soldiers at risk undermine their ability to restore peace in trouble spots throughout the world. If they are neither threatened directly nor have any commercial or other national interest to protect, is it reasonable to expect altruistic action, and if so, how can it be co- ordinated?

The United Nations will have to develop. The right hon. Member for Copeland (Dr. Cunningham) had some interesting views on that. It can develop in one of two ways, either by setting up its own command structure, with national assets committed to it, or by using an existing military organisation which has proved so effective in co-ordinating military forces of different nationalities to work together.

Perhaps NATO, said by many to be seeking a new role, is staring the solution in the face. As the United Nations' agent, it could continue to bind together north American and west European democracies for the future stability of the world. There would be no shortage of work for it to do. As Enoch Powell once said :

"History is littered with wars that everyone knew could not happen."

It will need true co-operation between the various national members. We recognise, for example, the constitutional problems of Germany and the sensitivities of France about the United States, but the whole venture will be fatally flawed if historic inhibitions are not overcome. If that can be achieved, the United Nations, through NATO, could indeed arrange pooling of resources and the matching and allocation of national forces to specific areas of conflict. I should like to consider the particular difficulties of the British contribution. The third defence requirement set out in the last "Statement in the Defence Estimates 1992" stated that our policy was

"to contribute to promoting the United Kingdom's wider security interests through the maintenance of international peace and stability."

To achieve that, we must have sufficient forces. Those of us who declined to support in the Division Lobby the scale of reduction in the debate on the estimates last year believed that the manpower available after the implementation of "Options for Change" could not cope even with existing commitments, let alone the unforeseen ones that many hon. Members have discussed today. We did not think that "Options for Change" would stand the test of time, but it has taken the deployment of British troops in Bosnia, and necessary reinforcements to Northern Ireland, to show that the sums do not add up, never did add up and will not add up in future.

This country has already had to decline to commit troops to Somalia, which many may think for historical and other reasons is a more suitable place to send troops than to Bosnia. I endorse the comments of one of my hon. Friends on the policy that should restrict our commitment in Bosnia to a humanitarian role.

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With respect, I remind my hon. Friend the Member for Carshalton and Wallington (Mr. Forman) that it was our right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary who earlier this year admitted what many of us had said and what the Select Committee on Defence said in its last report last week : that the British Army is indeed overstretched--the very phrase which has been forbidden within the Ministry of Defence for months, if not years. The Foreign Secretary admitted the overstretch, and now we look for further remedial action.

For years we have presumed on the good will of our NATO allies by deploying soldiers committed to NATO to so-called emergency tours of Northern Ireland and elsewhere. That has been tolerated up to now, but it will not be tolerated indefinitely. The worst scenario is that our hard-won leadership of the ACE Rapid Reaction Corps could be challenged by those who feel that we are not pulling our weight. The fundamental task of that new corps is to have the right forces in the right place at the right time. It is no longer possible for the United Kingdom to "two-time" NATO. We may as a nation punch above our weight, to use my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary's phrase, but we may be accused of not pulling our weight in a multinational peacekeeping role.

I finish by asking what we are trying to achieve in the debate. I suggest that it is the proper use of our forces, recognised to be the best professional non-conscript manpower in the world, as a force for good to restore peace, far outstripping our economic and numerical military strength. I cannot urge strongly enough that the future shape of our armed forces must be influenced strongly by the civilised exposition of the country's policies, as set out today by my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary.

7.24 pm

Rev. Martin Smyth (Belfast, South) : The hon. Member for Wimbledon (Dr. Goodson-Wickes) made some telling points. Fascinating insights have been given during this wide-ranging debate. A basic lesson that the world will have to learn is that countries must recognise one another's frontiers and that the United Nations and treaty groups with whom nations have signed treaties will keep their undertakings. That would make a major contribution to international peace and peacekeeping.

The Foreign Secretary referred to a scale between Gladstone and the saloon bar. He would not expect me, with my background, to make a division there, especially not to go for the silly middle--a common solution to many problems throughout the world.

I was fascinated to hear the right hon. Member for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale (Sir D. Steel) comment that he had previously misjudged Lord Owen. He did not realise that Lord Owen had such capacity for reconciliation. I am concerned that the plan for Bosnia might become a pattern. If the country is divided in the way suggested in the Vance-Owen plan, will that not be a spur to people in Kosovo and Macedonia to go for their stated territory, with a knock-on effect and a further division of countries?

The recent involvement of United States troops in overseas distribution of food in Somalia, and the

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deployment of our own troops as part of a UN multinational force escorting food convoys in Bosnia, suggests, as in the Gulf conflict, that individual countries are making decisions to commit forces as international policemen throughout the world. Humanitarian aid is vital, but is it possible for a few countries to carry on that role by deploying their forces without practical support from other Governments?

I signal a warning. The right hon. Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) referred to different developments within the United Nations in its expanding role. He mentioned article 43, under which the UN proposes to set up a military task force. I counsel against that. The concept of training together and working together comes about only through long practice, as we discovered in war time. Experience in Northern Ireland of dealing with guerrillas and terrorists has shown that forces under one supreme commander, but operating under different sub-commanders, may shoot one another instead of the terrorists. Therefore, I caution care in setting up a task force. I was alarmed when the United Nations spokeswoman, announcing the withdrawal of some UN food convoys in Bosnia, stated that she placed responsibility on different Governments for not implementing the decision of the United Nations--her implication was, by force. There comes a time when we have to stand up to a bully or, as in Kuwait, to invasion by a neighbouring country, but I caution that force is not necessarily the best means to achieve peacekeeping.

Some hon. Members have mentioned other issues and in passing I must refer to Indonesia, which is possibly the fourth largest nation in the world, and its relationship with East Timor. As I am aware of some of the hasty judgments which are based on biased reporting from Northern Ireland, I tend to question the accuracy of some of the information emanating from East Timor. Therefore, will the Minister of State tell us whether the Government have received a copy of the report that the Australian Federal Government were compiling in Melbourne a year ago in January and February, when they were taking evidence on East Timor? If so, will a copy be available for us to study in the Library?

The Foreign Secretary referred to the history and traditions of our commitments. South and southern Africa is one of those historic commitments and it is amazing that, while we welcome the fragmentation of the former Soviet Union into separate nations, there does not seem to be any awareness of the different nations which make up the state of South Africa. There is a tendency to treat all black South Africans as the same. Historically, we contributed to the division of southern Africa into its various components. Although I believe that a final settlement will have to come through internal agreement, could not a co-existence of the individual nations in a federation of southern Africa offer the most acceptable solution? The hon. Member for Gosport (Mr. Viggers) referred to an assessment of our troop commitment. Germany has constitutional reasons for not sending troops outside the NATO area, and some of its political parties and people are also reluctant. With the increased deployment of our troops overseas, is it not time that Germany was given the task of countering potential threats from the east? Such a move would allow the United Kingdom to withdraw the 1st Armoured Division from Germany, convert it to an

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out-of-area role and give enough British troops to carry out most potential tasks world wide. A force of that size would, however, require an increase in amphibious and air support. Some people still have a tendency to be little Englanders, but before long I suspect that we could have a force with a worldwide capability, comparable with our days of empire.

There is an increasing demand on our armed forces. Surely it is time to carry out a thorough defence review to identify the force level required to meet the demands of the international community and to meet our political aspirations and ambitions.

7.33 pm

Mr. David Atkinson (Bournemouth, East) : This debate on international peacekeeping is long overdue. Events in Yugoslavia during the past two years are not only a challenge to the authority of the United Nations but an indictment of the rest of Europe, and especially of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is our principal peacekeeping institution.

However, what is happening in the former Soviet Union should concern us even more, as they are so serious that events in Bosnia will be nothing in comparison unless we respond more effectively than we have done to date. As my right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary said in his opening speech, conflicts and confrontations are taking place all around its southern perimeter, and are causing the deaths of thousands and the displacement of millions.

In Moldova, the continuing presence of the 14th Russian army is encouraging the Russian-speaking population to resist the realisation of Moldovan statehood. Deaths, destruction and displacement have been widespread, and civil war remains a distinct threat.

In Georgia, two separate conflicts are causing the same threat : the conflict between the deposed President Gamsakhurdia and the recently elected President Shevardnadze ; and the conflict between the Abkhazian minority and the Government that has abolished their autonomy.

In Azerbaijan, a similar conflict over the autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh has rendered tens of thousands of Armenians and Azeris homeless. It is causing continuing death and destruction, not least by the daily bombing of Stepanakert by Azeri missiles. I must use this opportunity to place on record a tribute to the undoubted courage of our noble friend Baroness Cox, who is setting out tomorrow on her 12th mission to deliver food and medical supplies to Karabakh. Those missions, financed jointly with the European Community and non-governmental organisations, such as Christian Solidarity International and the Tear Fund do so much to relieve and encourage the brave people of Karabakh. I hope that the £0.25 million of aid that my right hon. Friend the Minister of State recently announced will be allowed to get to those people by the Azeri authorities, in the same way as the NGO assistance.

Unless the international community provides effective pressure on Azerbaijan very soon, I fear that its forthcoming offensive this spring will see the end of that historic Armenian Christian community of Karabakh. Those people will undoubtedly be facing genocide, and I appeal to my right hon. Friend to find out what more can be done by the CSCE and the United Nations to avert that potential tragedy.

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In four out of five Asian republics of the former Soviet Union there are similar conflicts. There are growing tensions in the Russian Federation between and within many of its autonomous republics. Last month some of us met with President Tcheptynon of the autonomous republic of Gorno-Altay, who told us that if President Yeltsin were replaced by Communists they would declare their independence, many other autonomous republics would do the same and then the blood would flow in the Russian Federation.

In crude figures, more than 1 million Russians and non-Russians have been forceably displaced in the former Soviet Union and tens of thousands of families require immediate aid and resettlement. Of the 25 million Russians living outside Russia, it is estimated that about 10 million will wish to be repatriated, to which must be added a further 1 million Russian army officers and their families. None of those people have homes to go to and that must add daily to the instability facing President Yeltsin.

If we ignore that situation much longer we will not have learnt the lesson of Yugoslavia--which is one of preventive diplomacy and the establishment of assistance programmes in volatile situations that are likely to cause such displacement--and in that case it will be a continent and not a country that is out of control. The consequences for the rest of Europe will be immense for many years to come. In my early-day motion 336 I noted that all those conflicts are taking place in CSCE member states and I suggested ways forward, which I believe fully complement the excellent ideas of Dr. Boutros-Ghali in his "Agenda for Peace". We need to introduce the use of internationally sponsored referendums to establish precisely the ambitions of national groups in pursuit of their right to self- determination. That is the peaceful alternative to ethnic cleansing, as a solution to nationalism. However, that requires a more flexible and realistic attitude and in accepting that changes in existing frontiers may be necessary to secure lasting peace. We need to introduce a system of binding arbitration to solve conflicts. That would build on Dr. Boutros- Ghali's proposals to promote the use of an international court of justice and of distinguished statesmen as peacemakers. If their findings are to have any authority, they must as a last resort be enforced by force. That is the nettle that we continue to hesitate to grasp despite all our plans to establish rapid reaction forces in NATO so that the Western European Union can make peace as opposed to keeping the peace. If we do not face up to decisions such as those to enhance the authority of the United Nations and its regional bodies, such as the CSCE, we shall have failed to seize the opportunities presented by the end of the cold war. We shall have ignored the lessons to be learnt from Yugoslavia. We risk condemning both the United Nations and the CSCE to the same fate as the League of Nations had, and we know what happened then.

7.41 pm

Mr. Stephen Byers (Wallsend) : I am pleased to take part in this important debate, which is occurring at such an opportune time. What has been interesting is the disappointment shared by many hon. Members that the end of the cold war and the development of the new world order have not brought the peace and security we all

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desire. Instead, they have led to a period of instability and insecurity. The debate on international peacekeeping needs to be seen against that backdrop.

Most of my comments will be directed at the Ministry of Defence and will concern our defence capability. The Ministry of Defence needs to review its activities and operations in that context. Recent reports in the press have referred to the fact that the central financial planning and management group in the Ministry of Defence has been considering its future procurement programme. I hope that the debate will give hon. Members an opportunity to express their views, and to inform and assist Ministers in their decisions about the future shape of our armed forces.

As many hon. Members have said, if we are concerned about and committed to international peacekeeping, there will be a direct and real impact on the size and shape of our armed forces. There can be no doubt that now that we no longer have an empire, and now that we have lost much of our former economic strength, we need to decide what proper role there should be for our armed services.

It is clear that we cannot reduce defence expenditure and yet continue to expand our military commitments. We must therefore, as a matter of urgency, identify our priorities. We must then ensure that our military capability reflects those priorities. There is no doubt that that consideration will involve many difficult and painful decisions. We must ensure that the decisions are not led by the Treasury, but are taken in the interests of the defence of this country. The dead hand of the Treasury must not be allowed to dictate totally the shape of our armed forces for the foreseeable future. There is no doubt that, in deciding our priorities, as we must, the security of our country must always come first. A second priority will be the role of international peacekeeping. There is no doubt that that would command the support of members of the public. However, I urge some caution. We must ensure that priorities in international peacekeeping are not determined by news editors on the "Six O'Clock News". All too often, public support and sympathy follow appearances, often with graphic and disturbing shots, on the news. Many other conflicts throughout the world are not as accessible to the news media, so members of the public do not see them. However, a peacekeeping role may be appropriate.

Such a role will not be carried out in isolation. It will involve close consultation with other nations within the United Nations. Within the context of a multinational approach, what should be the role of the United Kingdom? I believe that we should play to our strengths, and, as an island nation, our seaborne forces are a particular strength. We need to ensure that we have an amphibious capability and that we make proper and effective use of the Royal Marines. They are in an excellent position to assist in an international peacekeeping role. That approach was confirmed in "Options for Change", which recognised the need for flexible and mobile forces.

The Falkland crisis was a stark illustration of the need for an amphibious capability. In Operation Restore Hope in Somalia, the United States made great use of its amphibious capabilities. Present-day events in the former Yugoslavia reinforce the need for an amphibious capability.

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