House of Commons Hansard Debates for 4 May 1995

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Finally, if we are going to have a Royal Air Force which is capable of expansion, there must be effective reserves. I am glad about the progress that has been made in the Royal Auxiliary Air Force. Combining it with the Royal Air Force Volunteer Reserve was wise. The regiment squadrons have done well. The aero-medical section at Brize Norton is a success as is the movements auxiliary unit at Brize Norton. I am glad that reserve air crew have an opportunity to fly the Wessex and the C130. I hope that in 1996 Royal Air Force reservists may have an opportunity to fly fast jets.

Let me remind the House, however, how inadequate our response is in this area as compared with that of the Israelis and the Americans. Jane's Defence Weekly on 11 March 1995 states:

"US Air Force Reserve F16s on `Deny Flight'"--

that is, over the Balkans--

"Deployment of two US Air Force Reserve squadrons to Aviano Air Base, Italy, to enforce the no-fly zone over Bosnia has enabled"-- regular F16s to return to the United States for advanced training. That is the kind of measure we need to reduce some of the overstretch and strain in our regular units and to enable better use to be made of trained manpower when they leave the service.

All in all, the Government have done well with regard to the RAF. I am hopeful for the future and we would keep faith with those who died in the service of our country in the RAF, and to whom we pay tribute, if we continued the modernisation of the service which is, broadly, on the right lines.

7.59 pm

Mr. Harry Cohen (Leyton): I am surprised that no one has quoted Sir Winston Churchill's famous phrase about the Royal Air Force at the time of the Battle of Britain. I suspect that that is because the phrase is copyright, and any money derived from quoting it would go to the hon. Member for Davyhulme (Mr. Churchill) or his trustees, in addition to his lottery windfall. In the circumstances, a more appropriate quote may be, "Never has so much been paid by so many for so little." However, that is more relevant to the lottery than it is to the RAF.

I pay genuine tribute to the RAF. I have said in previous RAF debates that its professionalism and standards are of the highest quality, and I reiterate that.

I wish to make two brief points. First, there is the question of the use of information obtained by the RAF Turkey in the invasion of Iraq. I am concerned at reports that Turkish forces invading the safe areas for Kurds in northern Iraq were able to use images obtained by RAF aircraft to help plan their operations.

I have a report dated 30 March this year, which states:

"Royal Air Force officials admitted yesterday that high-quality security photographs of the Kurdish safe areas in northern Iraq, taken by RAF and French warplanes, have been shared with Turkish military officers."

"The officials said only that they will continue to monitor the situation and that Ankara has been told to respect the principle of territorial integrity."

Turkey did not respect the principle of territorial integrity because 35,000 Turkish troops, backed by warplanes and tanks, attacked those safe areas. They have left that area only in the past day.

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That was a gross abuse of the images obtained by the RAF. If the use of those images by Turkey is proven beyond doubt--as I said, RAF officials have admitted it--I call for Turkey to be prevented from having any further access to such images. The Minister should say what the Government's response has been, and whether they have made or will make representations to Turkey on the issue.

Mr. Hardy: The Royal Air Force is based in Turkey. Turkey is its host and also a part of NATO. Does my hon. Friend agree that the Royal Air Force cannot refuse to co-operate with a partner, and that if there is to be criticism and blame, it should be directed at the Administration in Turkey, and perhaps to our Foreign Office?

Mr. Cohen: I half agree with my hon. Friend. I am not blaming the RAF in this matter. There must have been a political decision to hand the images over to the Turkish authorities. I blame the Turkish authorities for invading the safe areas in Iraq. My criticism is of the Government. Somebody at a high level acceded to a request, if one was made, for the images.

The upshot is that the images were used for an operation for which they should not have been used--a national military operation by Turkey against safe areas. The Government should rebuke the Turkish Government on the matter. Will that be done?

Lady Olga Maitland: Is the hon. Gentleman aware that, while Turkey did go over the border, it was attacking PKK terrorist camps? Perhaps the hon. Gentleman is not aware that the PKK has killed thousands of innocent men, women and children in Turkey. The invasion was an attempt to combat international terrorism.

Mr. Cohen: There is a lot of argument about Turkey and its war against the Kurds and the PKK and the slaughter of the Alavi people. However, what has happened is that Turkey has used RAF images to help invade another country, northern Iraq, and the safe havens that were guaranteed by the United Nations. Indeed, the Prime Minister took credit for setting up those safe areas. RAF images and information should not have been used, in those circumstances, to help bomb and attack those areas. We need a ministerial response.

Secondly, I wish to discuss cluster bombs, and particularly the definition of cluster bombs. I want to query the compatibility of the BL755 cluster bomb with our obligations under international law, and with what could become our obligations under international law after the United Nations weaponry convention review in September. About a month ago, I asked the Minister of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, the hon. Member for Boothferry (Mr. Davis), about land mines. He enunciated a new Government policy to the House of the responsible use of mines, by which he meant that they should be mapped and later removed.

In a letter to me of 21 April, the Minister claimed:

"the BL755 is not a land mine and does not include an anti-personnel land mine as a component."

That raises the issue of what the definition of a mine is. I like simple, clear definitions, because they are the easiest to keep to. I suggest that anything that is on the ground and is triggered by a person coming into contact with it to cause that person death or injury is an

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anti-personnel land mine. That is precisely what the anti-personnel element of the BL755 does, and that is contrary to what the Minister stated in his letter to me. The bomblets, to use the military's term, in the BL755 are scattered when the cluster bomb is deployed, ready to kill and maim people who enter the affected area.

The Government are playing around with meanings and definitions. Most people recognise a distinction between a bomb and a mine. The former explodes on impact with the ground, while the latter waits--this is the key point--on the ground for the victim to come into contact with it. That is why the BL755 produces a minefield by any other name. The weapons within it are clearly mines under the definition that I have used.

If the weapon were to be used, would the RAF go along and drop a team of sappers to mark the resulting minefield behind enemy lines? Of course not. How can the weapon be used responsibly and in compliance with protocol 2 of the inhumane weapons convention as the Government claim?

There is a further important question. We exported such weapons to the former Yugoslavia, and they are now in Serbian hands. In the past couple of days, Zagreb has been attacked with cluster bombs--perhaps the bombs that we sold. Can the Minister confidently tell the House that he expects the Serbs not to use those weapons indiscriminately if the no-fly zone is ever rescinded? Will they use them "responsibly", in the Government's parlance?

The BL755 blows up--or, if hon. Members can excuse the pun, undermines--the responsible use of mines policy that the Government enunciated only a few weeks ago. Ministers can get around the problem only by pretending that the BL755 does not have a mine element at all, but it does. It waits on the ground for somebody to come into contact with it.

The Government's approach will fool no one, but many tyrants around the world will do likewise, and say that they do not have any mines when they do. It could put the protocol, the effort to ban or reduce the number of land mines, and even the Government's desired "responsible" use of mines, in jeopardy. I therefore urge the Government to think again about the BL755 cluster bomb, especially in relation to our international obligations.

8.9 pm

Mr. David Atkinson (Bournemouth, East): The lesson of the events that we commemorate this weekend is that the price of peace is eternal vigilance. Had that lesson been learned following the first world war, the second could have been avoided.

I shall use this debate on air defence to enlarge on the call made by my hon. Friend the Member for Ruislip-Northwood (Mr. Wilkinson) and the warning that I gave in a previous defence debate, which is that this country and Europe are not prepared for ballistic missile attack. In support of that warning, I paint what I readily accept is a worst case scenario but which I believe to be wholly plausible. No one doubts that the future of Algeria lies on a knife edge, and that today's civil war could lead to an Islamic fundamentalist Government. Within weeks, perhaps days, that revolution could be exported to neighbouring Tunisia, where the Ben Ali Government could be replaced by the

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banned Islamic Renaissance party. Before Europe and the United States of America had time to respond, Muslim radicals in Egypt could have incited the mob to overthrow the Mubarak Government. Immediately, the border between Egypt and Gaza would be pulled down. As Islamic brothers embraced, Israel would mobilise, and the peace process would be dead.

In response, President Clinton and NATO would order ships to the eastern Mediterranean and send troops to support King Hassan in Morocco, which is fast becoming destabilised by the flood of refugees from Algeria, and is itself threatened by revolution.

Unable to believe their luck, President Gaddafi and the ayatollahs in Iran would promise to reinforce the new regimes, which would request the immediate supply of missiles of all kinds. Of course, Iran and Libya have more than enough to go around, having recently taken delivery of large quantities of RoDong ballistic missiles from North Korea. In addition, they have long held hundreds of Scuds B and C, Al Fatah and Tondar medium-range missiles.

They would no doubt press North Korea to speed up the development and supply of its larger longer-range NoDong missiles, which Libya is co- financing and which would put this country within range. Apart from Israel, there is only one direction in which these missiles located along the entire southern shore of the Mediterranean would face, and that is Europe.

The question to which I hope that my hon. Friend the Minister of State will respond is, are we prepared for such a threat today and in the immediate future? Also, are we prepared for accidental, unauthorised or even deliberate launches from the growing number of countries that possess or that are developing and acquiring ballistic missiles?

I have no doubt that my hon. Friend the Minister will refer to the initiatives for the future missile defence of Europe which are now under way, such as our two-year programme of pre-feasibility studies, parallel studies in NATO, informal discussions with allies and close links between the Ministry and the United States Ballistic Missile Defence Organisation.

None of that suggests that we are prepared now. It does suggest, however, that there is some overlap, and that this country is hardly at the centre of co-operation between the United States of America and our allies in preparing for the future missile defence of Europe--quite the reverse.

Why is the United Kingdom not part of the agreement made three months ago by the United States of America, Germany, France and Italy to co-operate in developing an extended air defence capability against ballistic missiles, which is known as MEADS, or the medium extended air defence system? Why are we not considering the development of a European space-based observation system and an early warning system, which are essential for effective anti- missile defence and which should surely be on the agenda of the forthcoming intergovernmental conference of the European Union in relation to the future European defence community?

As ballistic missiles are at their most vulnerable before their descent, which was the central argument in support of President Reagan's strategic defence initiative, should we not be pursuing and sharing with our allies the research into an interception system that is space-based, as well as a ground-based theatre missile defence system, which has effectively replaced star wars?

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On a parallel tack, what plans do we have to strengthen the missile technology control regime, which is what President Clinton prefers to star wars? It needs a formal, well-researched secretariat, and its guidelines need to take account of payload as well as range. Many of its members need to strengthen in their national laws the principles of the regime.

New attempts must be made to bring in the major suppliers of ballistic missile technology, such as Russia and China, that remain outside the regime. Certainly, future membership of the Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development should require it. Potential suppliers from the former Soviet Union, such as Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, should be encouraged to join, while second-tier suppliers such as India and North Korea should continue to be pressed to adhere to it.

As the war was coming to an end 50 years ago, London and the south-east were still living in fear of the first ever ballistic missile to be used in war against which we had no defence--the V2. Today, some 38 countries already have or are developing increasingly reliable and longer-range successors to the V2. That fact, combined with the spread of weapons of mass destruction to be used with those missiles, is giving our regional adversaries a political and military leverage that was inconceivable at the beginning of the decade. If we do not have the capability to respond effectively to these threats, we will be deterred from taking action against Saddam Hussein and his kind in the future, and our enemies will know that they can have their way without a shot being fired. This represents the greatest challenge to the defence of Europe today, as well as to our ability to defend Europe's interests anywhere in the world, most notably in the middle east.

Mr. Freeman: As we are not as pressed for time as we are in some other debates, it might be convenient for the House if I comment briefly on the matters that my hon. Friend aimed directly at me. The Government take ballistic missile defence extremely seriously. Nothing should be read into the fact that we are not participating in the United States MEADS programme. We are pursuing parallel initiatives, and I maintain a very close connection with my opposite numbers in the Pentagon on this matter.

When we have the conference in London in June to discuss ballistic missile defence, I shall be announcing on behalf of the Government not only the progress being made on the feasibility study led by British Aerospace but, more important, the fact that we have recently authorised the investment of some £8 million in technology demonstrators, especially in the sphere of radar defence against ballistic missiles.

I hope that that satisfies my hon. Friend. I shall be sure to tell my hon. Friend the Minister of State who is winding up the debate, and who might not be able to respond to the points that my hon. Friend has made and has yet to make, that I have taken the liberty of dealing with some of them.

Mr. Atkinson: I am delighted that my right hon. Friend has responded to some of my concerns. I am grateful to him, and I look forward to any further responses from my hon. Friend the Minister of State. I am also pleased to hear about the announcement to be made at the eighth

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multinational conference on theatre missile defence, which is to take place at the Queen Elizabeth II conference centre next month. I take this opportunity to pay tribute to my hon. Friend the Minister of State for the Armed Forces for the considerable role that he is playing in the organisation of the Government's programme of official VE day and VJ day events that are forthcoming this weekend and in August. That they are appropriate to the historic occasions they commemorate, and that they will be a considerable success, there is no doubt, and I believe that the whole House should acknowledge that today. Of course, we expect nothing less from the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill.

8.19 pm

Mr. Ieuan Wyn Jones (Ynys Mo n): I hope that hon. Members will forgive me if I do not follow the lines of their contributions, as I wish to concentrate on RAF Valley, which is in my constituency. The Minister of State will know that I corresponded with him in September last year about the Government's proposal for market testing certain services at Valley. I asked him whether it would be possible for an in-house bid to be made for those services. He wrote to me in September last year and said that there was an opportunity for a bid to be considered, although there were certain constraints about that bid. That was a less-than-fulsome assurance, but at least it confirmed that the in-house bid team at RAF Valley was to be given some assistance in preparing that bid.

On 20 April, the Ministry of Defence announced that it proposed not to allow an in-house bid to proceed, and that decision was greeted with anger and frustration by not only RAF personnel at the station and the civilian work force but the local community. I shall address some of our concerns about the proposal and, I hope, persuade the Ministry to think again during the consultation period.

RAF Valley was established in 1941 as a fighter base. It is now the only fully operational RAF airfield in Wales. The Ministry of Defence concluded that its future as a flying base should continue, at the expense of other locations, in 1993. Currently, 1,100 service personnel and 200 civilians are employed at Valley. They contribute about £20 million annually to the local economy. Many of the service personnel live in the camp village of Llanfihangel, but a significant number live in the adjoining villages of Caergeiliog, Rhosneigr, Llanfaelog, Trearddur bay and Holyhead. When I became aware that Valley was to be subjected to the market-testing exercise, I felt that it was incumbent on me to take up the matter with the Minister. The market-testing exercise involves a total of 771 posts--573 are service personnel and 198 are civilians. The in-house bid team commenced work on the premise that the 771 posts would be reduced to 580, with 300 service personnel, the current 198 civilians, and the balance recruited as civilian staff. The fact that 300 service personnel needed to be included in the in-house bid at the outset was a clear demonstration of the need to retain sufficient staff with the appropriate skills in aircraft -related tasks.

Alongside the market-testing proposal, as the Minister of State has explained, we had the publication of the White Paper, "Front Line First", with its requirement to

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reduce RAF manpower from 73,000 at present to 52,200 by March 1999. Given the time scale for the market-testing proposal and the manpower service reduction requirements, the in-house bid was clearly damned from the outset. Set against that background and that time scale, it could not possibly succeed.

The Ministry made it clear that a total of 300 service personnel, although it would mean a reduction of 273 on the current levels, was unacceptable because it could not otherwise meet the manpower reduction requirements. Therefore, for all those months--from September last year until January this year--the in-house bid team worked with one hand tied behind its back, and a trawl of the whole of north Wales for people with the appropriate skills in aircraft-related tasks and in specialist aircraft-related tasks produced the inevitable results: there were simply not enough people with those skills available so that they could be included in the bid.

The next step, of course, was to see whether sufficient people could be trained in time to be included in the bid. That, of course, is where we came up against the time scale constraints. The time scale for the implementation of the contractorisation programme meant that it could not be achieved. The original timetable was: May 1995, the invitation to tender --I understand that there might be some slippage--then November 1995, the choice of contractor; January 1996, a six-month handover period to commence; and July 1996, total handover to the contractor. Even the most optimistic person would have to agree that, if 300 service personnel with specialist skills had to be taken out of the bid, it would be impossible to train 300 people from the local community within 14 months in time for the handover.

Because there are no aircraft-related industries within the local community, there is no pool of ready, available labour to take the place of the service personnel. If the work were handed over to an outside contractor, the loss of jobs in Anglesey would be catastrophic, and the impact on the local community enormous. Contractors will say that they will do their best to employ local people, but the reality is that, because some of the jobs require specialist skills, many people from outside the area will have to be brought in.

The RAF station is located in the north-west quadrant of the island, which is part of the Holyhead travel-to-work area. The population of that part of the island is 53,000, with unemployment at 15.4 per cent.--the second highest in Wales; nearly 60 per cent. have been unemployed for more than six months. In March this year, there were 269 unfilled vacancies, which would meet 10 per cent. of the current demand. Average incomes in the area are substantially below the United Kingdom average.

The tremendous problems that the community faces--structural, economic and social problems, low incomes, and so on--will be significantly compounded if an in-house bid is not allowed. We will see not only the loss of 573 service personnel and their purchasing power in the community but 198 civilian jobs in jeopardy. That will have a significant impact, as I have said, on shops, schools and the housing market. I have already said that a significant number of service personnel live in several villages surrounding the base at Valley. If all those service personnel were transferred to other locations, the impact on the housing market in those areas would be

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unbelievable. When, on 20 April, the Ministry of Defence announced the decision not to allow the in-house bid, the condemnation in my constituency was universal. Morale at the station hit a new low, and people were angry at the way in which they had been treated. The Minister of State for the Armed Forces, who I believe is to wind up the debate, sent me a reply saying that, apart from the global in- house bid covering both civilian and service personnel, the Ministry had also considered the idea of a separate in-house bid for the civilian staff alone, but it had rejected that as well. Unfortunately, the Ministry had not discussed that option with the trade unions representing the civilian staff, and the first they knew about such a bid having been considered and rejected was when they received the letter from the MOD.

I do not believe that the civilian staff should have been treated like that. They should at least have been given the opportunity to mount an in- house bid on their own, if that was what the Ministry was considering. Will the Minister ensure that during the consultation period the civilian staff and their representatives are fully consulted at each stage, so that they know what is planned for themselves, their jobs and their families? I should welcome that assurance.

What is the way forward from here? I realise that the Ministry applied certain criteria that made it impossible for the in-house bid to succeed, but I want the Minister to give us an assurance that, because of the impact on the local economy and community of a decision not to allow the bid, the Government will think again. I want the Minister to reconsider the criteria that meant that the bid could not have succeeded.

In my constituency there is not only universal condemnation of the way in which the original bid was treated but universal acceptance of the need to do everything that we can to retain those jobs in the area. In my eight years as a Member of Parliament this is the most serious problem that has faced one workplace.

The consultation period was originally set to finish on 5 June, but it has been extended until the end of that month. I understand that the Welsh Office has intervened and tried to ensure that we now bring people together, such as the Ministry, Targed--the training and enterprise council --the Welsh Development Agency, other agencies and the local authority. We are conducting an urgent skills review to find out what is possible in the area, because we want the Ministry to accept that some service personnel who accept redundancy might want to return as civilians later, although not within the current time scale.

Clearly we shall have the opportunity to discuss matters in detail at the meetings, but I ask the Minister now whether he will consider our case according to the following principles. First, the market-testing programme within the current time scale should be withdrawn. Secondly, the target date for achieving the manpower service requirements should be relaxed in the interim. Thirdly, we should assess the number of skilled service personnel in RAF Valley who may wish to convert to civilian service in the area. Next, we should allow the technical college, Coleg Menai, and other training agencies to set up courses in engineering and other disciplines to train enough people within the local labour pool to take on the jobs at Valley. Finally, the Ministry should be sensitive to the impact of any decision on the area.

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If, without giving a commitment on the detail tonight, the Minister will assure us that we can agree on those principles, I shall ensure that the local committee puts up a strong case to persuade him and his Department to think again, so that the impact on the local community can be minimised.

8.34 pm

Mr. Keith Mans (Wyre): I am grateful for the opportunity to say a few words--but I hope that the hon. Member for Ynys Mo n (Mr. Jones) will forgive me if I do not follow his speech. Although I am familiar with the airfield at Valley, on Anglesey, I am not familiar with the matters that he was discussing. I also apologise to my hon. Friend the Minister of State for Defence Procurement for not having been here for his opening speech. I warned him beforehand that I could not attend then, and I have managed to be here for most of the debate. I very much welcome the White Paper this year--more so than many previous White Papers--and I am especially delighted by the section on air cadets. Perhaps at this stage it is appropriate for me to declare an interest as a pilot in the Royal Air Force Reserve. The cadet movement is most important. It is not only a recruiting ground for RAF airmen, but a link between the services and the civilian community--that applies to the other two cadet movements too. As is dwelt on in the White Paper for the first time, there is also the importance from a social point of view of encouraging worthwhile pursuits for youngsters, who learn initiative and self-reliance, and do all sorts of things that we should encourage tomorrow's citizens to do.

My right hon. Friend the Minister will know that there is something else in the White Paper that I welcome--the firm commitment to no more defence cuts. I should probably have preferred us not to have gone quite so far as we have; none the less, I am delighted that we seem finally to have come to the end of the session of defence cuts that has taken place over the past five years.

It is worth while to reflect on what has happened so far. A few years ago, the Royal Air Force was just under 90,000 personnel strong. This year, the number will be down to 66,500, and, as has already been said, by 1999 it will be only 52,200. That is a dramatic change, a 40 per cent. reduction over about seven years.

Alongside that reduction in numbers, there has been a large reduction in the amount of equipment. Across the range of aircraft in RAF service, there has been a reduction of between 30 and 40 per cent. in the front line. We now have a total of 72 strike attack aircraft, 65 offensive air support aircraft and 80 air defence aircraft. Those are the teeth of the Royal Air Force.

We should take into account all the things that those aircraft, their air crews and the supporting ground staff are doing now. They do not operate simply from one or two bases; they are deployed all over Europe and further afield. There is no doubt that, just as the British Army has suffered from overstretch in the past, the air force, as other hon. Members have said, is on the point of suffering the same fate.

Many hon. Members have also mentioned the shutting of RAF stations. I support those who have suggested that we question the retention of our two stations in Germany. We should retain some presence in Germany, but I favour

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withdrawing most of the front-line units to the United Kingdom. I am thinking especially of the Tornado squadrons.

Now that the cold war is over, the RAF can no longer operate down to 250 ft or even 500 ft over Germany. Therefore, most of the training of the Tornado air crews has to be done elsewhere. They have to move away from their base in Germany to train. We must therefore question whether there is any point in keeping them there. Moreover, if they returned to this country, there would at least be the possibility that we should not have to shut quite so many RAF stations in Britain.

Although we have stopped the cuts, it must be recognised that the effects of previous defence reviews will remain with us for some time. I very much welcomed the comments by my right hon. Friend the Minister of State for Defence Procurement on the Bett report. I would have liked to have seen Mr. Bett as a member of a team led by a service man, rather than the other way round. I know that the way in which the report has been produced has caused a certain amount of concern in some quarters of the three services.

Having said that, there is much good in the report. It has made people look afresh at a number of matters. My right hon. Friend will know that, during an earlier RAF debate, I questioned the need for so many ranks in the RAF, and I was interested to see that Mr. Bett himself asked the Ministry of Defence to look at that matter.I hope that that will be done.

I welcome my right hon. Friend's comments that there was a need for considerable reassurance and consultation following the Bett report, and that must happen. We must use the opportunity given by that report to allow people within the armed services to give their views freely and fully. That is the best way to reassure people that the report is not just another review or another part of the series of cuts which have had a dramatic effect on the RAF in the past seven or eight years. The Bett report has provided us with the opportunity to do precisely what I said.

Mr. Martlew: Does the hon. Gentleman support performance-related pay?

Mr. Mans: It would be perfectly acceptable to consider performance- related pay in some parts of the RAF, but I would not support it if it were applied universally throughout the RAF. There are areas where the use of performance-related pay could be of benefit, and that is what I meant about considerable consultation. It is totally wrong to rule out something which may create greater efficiency and better operational effectiveness simply because it happens to be performance-related pay. It should not be discarded without being considered.

Bearing in mind the size of the RAF now, it is vital that it has the right equipment. In this context, I would like to say a word about my right hon. Friend's job as the procurement Minister. We have seen some considerable changes in the past year in the way in which we look at those matters. Decisions have been taken which may not have been to my liking, but they have been taken in a much more practical, clear-sighted and understandable way. I am thinking in particular about the decisions on the future large aircraft, the C130J and the EH101.

I have been particularly encouraged by what my right hon. Friend has done in terms of looking at procurement in partnership with other countries, which must be the

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right way forward. Weapons systems are hugely expensive, and when other nations want similar weapons themselves, it is pointless for us to try to produce something on our own. I have been encouraged by what has happened--particularly in Europe--and by the merging of companies on an international basis, which avoids the awful choice that has to be made between a national project and one brought from overseas.

Mr. Michael Colvin (Romsey and Waterside): I am grateful to my hon. Friend for giving way, particularly as I have only just walked into the Chamber. The Select Committee on Defence has just been in Italy looking at the southern flank of NATO, and I am glad to see so many members of the Committee in the Chamber.

My hon. Friend has just referred to the EH101 and the importance of co- operation. We gave the Italians 50 per cent. of the manufacturing of the EH101 helicopter, which was a very good arrangement. Notwithstanding Italy's severe financial difficulties--it is trying to cut its defence budget even further than we are--would it not be nice if the Italians were to place some orders for the EH101? They have not yet done so.

Mr. Mans: I can answer that with one word--yes. It would be a very good idea indeed.

I have been encouraged also by the moves taken towards the future offensive aircraft, or FOA. We are always dealing in these three-letter abbreviations, and a number of similar abbreviations are associated with the studies on the successor to the Harrier aircraft. I ask my right hon. Friend the Minister to look not just to the United States in that context, but at what collaborations we can have with Europe. I do not think that we should go for one or the other, but we should look at both at the same time if possible.

There is one decision, however, with which I and a number of earlier speakers have decidedly disagreed--although it was taken before my right hon. Friend filled his present post. I refer to the decision to cancel the tactical air-to-surface missile. The RAF may have been partly responsible for that decision, as it wanted a weapon that was probably too grand and too expensive.

I am convinced that we shall be in considerable difficulty in the future if we cannot provide the RAF with some sort of stand-off nuclear capability after the WE177 is withdrawn from service in the next two or three years. My reasons for that view follow on from the excellent speech made by my hon. Friend the Member for Bournemouth, East (Mr. Atkinson) a few minutes ago. If one looks at the threats that may be posed to this country in the coming decade or two, one must take account of something possibly going wrong in Russia and the appearance of a regime there that is much more militaristic and belligerent. It is right that, through NATO, we should have a deterrent that is capable of meeting that threat.

I would submit that a more likely risk to this country comes from precisely the nations which my hon. Friend mentioned in his speech. We must not just think about the conventional threat, as there is the potential for a nuclear threat as well. Until we have a system that is capable of defending us against such a threat, the only mechanism for defence is deterrence.

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As my hon. Friend the Member for Ruislip- Northwood (Mr. Wilkinson) rightly pointed out, it is much easier to deter effectively if one can deploy an air-launched nuclear capability which can be seen by the whole world for what it is. The potential aggressor can then see for himself that this country is serious about being prepared to go to the brink to avoid being attacked. I feel that giving Trident a sub- strategic role to meet that threat is less credible than providing the Tornados or the Eurofighter with dual capability into the next century.

I shall say a few words about air power in general. It is always said that it is very expensive to have air power, but it is even more expensive not to have it. We have seen in the past few days and weeks on our television screens air power in action during the second world war. A clear message has come out of that footage. From 1942 onwards, our troops operated on the ground with air superiority, while the German troops did not. If one speaks to German and British soldiers, one can see that that fact made a big difference.

In virtually every conflict since the second world war, with the possible exception of the Falklands--although I would argue that we at least had local air superiority there--the NATO armies, and the British Army in particular, have been able to operate in the knowledge that they had air superiority. I do not want to make a point in favour of the Royal Air Force versus the Army, but as a result the Army has become a tiny bit complacent about keeping an extra battalion of troops rather than procuring an extra squadron of aircraft. There is no point in having an extra battalion of troops if we do not have the air cover, because that will result only in considerable extra casualties.

Media coverage today is so pervasive that the results of a battle, for example in Iraq, are often on our television screens before the military commanders know what has happened. As a result, we constantly have to reduce the number of casualties, because otherwise what we are doing becomes politically unacceptable. It is vital to ensure that we incur the minimum number of casualties when we carry out military operations. In the Gulf war, we saw a graphic illustration of the effectiveness of air power in the slaughter on the roads out of Kuwait as the Iraqis streamed out. The war was probably stopped at that time as a result of the pictures of that slaughter on our television screens. That was a clear demonstration of the effectiveness of air power and of the way in which it can prevent casualties on one's own side.

I have pointed that out because I strongly believe that, if we are to prevent such conflicts, we must ensure that we have adequate air forces to secure air superiority, so that we can do what we want. Without adequate air forces, we would just have to accept much larger numbers of ground casualties.

We have also to accept that modern weapon systems and air platforms need a fair amount of support. One of the unfairest manifestations of the defence debate in the national media was the implication that the air force had a larger tail to cut. Keeping a Tornado aircraft airborne for three or four sorties a day requires a huge amount of back-up. If one does not keep the aircraft airborne for those sorties, one has wasted the investment. The only way round the problem is to increase the number of aircraft and reduce the sortie rate--one can balance one against the other.

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I am pleased that we are not making any more defence cuts. As hon. Members have said, we have to look very closely indeed at the amount of support that we give the front line, especially in terms of spares and training. I get the impression that we are operating at very close to 100 per cent. and that there is not a great deal of flexibility if, for instance, we need to expand our air effort for any reason.

We have to be careful about using commercial systems of spares provision. If something goes wrong and we do not have what is needed close by, £20 million worth of aircraft could be sitting on the ground unnecessarily. The 48 aircraft that make up the four squadrons at Bruggen are our strike attack wing. My hon. Friend the Minister of State for the Armed Forces might like to write to me to let me know what the serviceability of those aircraft is and how many can be expected, on average, on the front line every morning for people to fly. I suspect that it will be less than 50 per cent. of the 48.

Mr. Menzies Campbell: The hon. Gentleman must have inside information.

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