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Mr. Foulkes: Did the survey include Conservative Members of Parliament with majorities of less than 10,000?
Mr. Grocott: I am sure that the health consequences would be the same. My hon. Friend refers to the job security of Members of Parliament. When I was first elected, being a Member of Parliament was rated as a peculiarly insecure job because one could usually be guaranteed only four or four and a half years. A job with four years' security is now a copper-bottomed, Bank of England job. Most of our constituents would envy such a job.
What do all the figures tell us about the future? I give one final example from the opinion poll, which Conservative Members really should take seriously. People were asked:
"Do you think that children today have a better future in front of them than you had when you were a child, a worse future, or about the same?" The answer to that question is the real commentary on any Government. As everyone knows, that is the one question that almost always gets a positive reply. However rough things are, most people think that the next generation will have things just a little bit better. In this opinion poll, 15 per cent. thought that the future would be about the same for their children. Some 18 per cent. thought that the future for their children would be better. Some 63 per cent. thought that life for their children would be worse.
There we are. After 16 years of this Government's economic experimentation and after 16 oil-rich years, two thirds of people in this country are quite convinced that the future for their children will be worse than it was for them. That is a record of which the Government should be thoroughly ashamed. The sooner that the people have the chance to sling them out at a general election, the better.
6.28 pm
Sir David Knox (Staffordshire, Moorlands): The hon. Member for The Wrekin (Mr. Grocott) was my neighbour when he represented Lichfield and Tamworth between 1974 and 1979. It did not prove a terribly permanent base
for him, and he wisely moved elsewhere. He did not make quite such controversial speeches when he was in Staffordshire. I can only assume that there is something about the air in Shropshire that has changed his views.
The hon. Gentleman exaggerated the benefits from North sea oil. He forgot the disadvantage, which was the effect on the exchange rate and on the level of unemployment, as we saw in the early 1980s. It is as well to remember that.
The hon. Gentleman seemed to take 1979 as the turning point for unemployment, but perhaps I can remind him that it was not that year but 1974 which represented the turning point. At the time of the 1974 general election, the unemployment rate was about 500,000. I share the hon. Gentleman's concern about unemployment, and he must accept that that rate started to increase under the last Labour Government--at one time, it reached 1.5 million people. The numbers declined a little after that, but then rose again. The problem of unemployment is not as simple as the hon. Gentleman has suggested.
If a Labour Government would have as much effect as the hon. Gentleman has suggested, however, I am rather puzzled about why the Opposition have adopted so many of the economic policies pursued by the Government. If the Government's economic policies are so bad, surely a Labour Government should opt for policies that are totally distinctive from them.
None the less, I do not in any way underestimate the problems caused by unemployment, which are real, and socially divisive. It is bad for people to be out of work, and particularly bad for young people. To that extent, I share the hon. Gentleman's views about the effects of unemployment.
The hon. Member for Glasgow, Springburn (Mr. Martin) spoke about the Child Support Agency. I had a great deal of sympathy with his comments about the difficulties that people encounter when trying to contact the agency. He mentioned people's difficulties when trying to contact it by telephone, but what about the problems encountered by those trying to contact it by letter? I have found that in many cases the CSA does not reply to letters.
Oh yes, the CSA replies to Members of Parliament's letters, but that is not the point. People should not have to go to their Member of Parliament to get their problems resolved. It is disgraceful to recall the number of constituents who come to us and say that they have written to the CSA up to five times, and not had a scrape of a pen back. I hope that Ministers will take that matter seriously, because, although the principles of the CSA are undoubtedly correct, I am afraid that its practice has not been. Although it has undoubtedly improved since its inception, it still leaves a great deal to be desired.
In the past, I have been extremely critical of the heavy legislative programme before the House, so it would be ungracious of me not to record my appreciation of the fact that the legislative programme in the Session that was prorogued last week was significantly lighter than that of previous years. I am also pleased to note that the legislative programme outlined in the Gracious Speech appears to be less onerous than in most of the years that I have been a Member of the House.
Before I get too carried away, however, I notice that, as usual, the ominous words
It is important for those of us in the House to remember that, in the real world outside, the public are increasingly fed up with the mass of legislation that descends on them year after year. All too often, understanding and implementing that legislation diverts them from their real work of creating wealth and providing services.
That is particularly true when the legislation has been badly drafted or not properly thought out, as has far too often been the case. I therefore hope that the comparatively light legislative programme facing us will mean that those outside the House will be able to get on with the practical tasks of making industry and commerce more efficient and more competitive, and making the service sector, in particular the public service sector, more effective.
That does not mean, of course, that I think that there should be no legislation. I welcome many of the measures included in the Gracious Speech. In particular, I am pleased about the proposed housing Bill, which will, I understand, increase the opportunities for housing association tenants to exercise the right to buy and will include measures to help the homeless. We will, of course, have to wait for the details of the Bill, but no one can be happy about the current arrangements for dealing with homelessness. I hope that the Bill will lead to an improvement in the current situation.
I also welcome the Bill on nursery education, because it will enable the Government to fulfil their promise to provide nursery education for all four-year-olds whose parents wish it. That is a major step forward in improving the standard of education in this country, and it will be widely welcomed by parents.
I was pleased to see the positive remarks about the European Union in the Gracious Speech. In the past 40 years, this country has all too frequently adopted a very reluctant attitude towards European unity. As a result, British interests have often been greatly damaged.
We are told that, at the moment, enthusiasm for the European Union has declined in the other member countries of the union. That may well be true, but, if it is, I believe that the reason has been the severe economic recession experienced throughout that union. It is normal for the Governments of countries in the depth of an economic recession to be unpopular, and obviously the European Union shares that unpopularity. As the countries within the union recover from recession, however, I have no doubt that the popularity of national Governments, and also that of the European Union, will recover, and that enthusiasm for further development within that union will increase once again.
When that happens, there is a danger that Britain will be left behind. That would not be in our best interests. This country has been bad at assessing intentions in Europe in the post-war era. At the Messina conference about the establishment of the European Economic Community in 1955, we sent only a Board of Trade official, the unfortunate Mr. Bretherton, and only as an observer. When he left, he said:
Alas, the attitude of Mr. Bretherton has been the attitude of this country for too many of the past 40 years. At present, that seems to be the attitude that we are taking towards the single currency. The current British view is that there is little chance of a single currency being introduced in the European Union, and that we can be semi-detached about it. Some people even suggest that the Government should say that Britain will not join a single currency during the next Parliament. Others even go as far as to say that we should never join it.
I am afraid that that could well be the next major misjudgment about the European Union by this country, as I believe that it is probable that, within the next few years, the European Union, or at least a core group of countries within it, will move towards a single currency.
Fortunately, my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer is participating in the discussions about a single currency, and, as long as he continues to do so, British interests will be represented. There will be a British input in the arrangements that are eventually adopted. If the Government were to state, however, that under no circumstances would they join a single currency in the next Parliament, or that they would never join it, we might be asked to leave those discussions--or, if we stayed, our influence would disappear.
When the single currency was eventually introduced, Britain would be left outside. Sterling would come under enormous pressure. After a short time, such would be the effect on the British economy that we would be compelled to join, but we would be joining a system, and would have to accept conditions, in the latter stages of whose formulation we had played no part. Once again, in the name of an illusion about sovereignty, we would have suffered a self-inflicted injury.
I therefore hope that the Government will refrain from making any commitment not to join a single currency, and that my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will continue to play a constructive part in the current negotiations about a single currency. In that way can British interests best be protected and advanced.
Finally, may I say a word about our approach in the House to the legislative programme? My anxiety arises from the change that has come about by moving the Budget date forward--not that I have any specific objection to the Budget being brought forward. My right hon. Friend the Member for Westmorland and Lonsdale (Mr. Jopling) drew attention to that matter in an authoritative speech in the debate on the Address on 18 November 1993.
This Session is starting on 15 November, today's date. We shall debate the Gracious Speech until Wednesday 22 November. The following Tuesday, 28 November, will be Budget day, and the debate on the Budget is unlikely to finish before Tuesday 5 December. Although there may be a Second Reading debate the day before the Budget, it is more likely that the first Second Reading debate will take place on Wednesday 6 or Thursday 7 December.
That means that the Committee of Selection will not be able to appoint any Standing Committees until Wednesday 13 December, and that in turn means that the Standing Committees will not be able to meet until 19 December, and will probably not meet until after the House returns from the Christmas recess.
The consequence of all that is that the legislative programme will get off to far too slow a start, and the programme will be clogged up later in the Session. The position is further aggravated because one of the Standing Committees that previously considered other Bills in the spring will deal with the Finance Bill from the end of January until Easter.
"Other measures . . . will be laid before you."
appear in the Gracious Speech. I hope that there will be few, if any, of those other measures.
"I leave Messina happy, because even if you continue meeting, you will not agree; even if you agree, nothing will result; and even if something results, it will be a disaster." That must rank as one of the greatest political misjudgments of the post-war era, and it cost this country dearly.
15 Nov 1995 : Column 66
A short time after the Messina conference, the scale of that misjudgment became apparent to this country. We had to apply to join a community that had been set up without any British input. Eventually, in 1973, to obtain admission, we had to accept rules that would have been different and more to our suiting if we had joined at the beginning. Britain was the loser.
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