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Mr. Douglas Hurd (Witney): Will my right hon. Friend, in contrast to the Leader of the Opposition today, keep his mind open to the idea of a referendum on a single currency, should the Government at any stage decide that it is in Britain's interests to join?
The Prime Minister: I recall discussing that matter with my right hon. Friend as long as two years ago. I know that he has thought long and hard about the implications for Europe and for this country of a single currency. I agree with him that we need to be clear about the circumstances and the conditions. The study that we commissioned in Madrid will help in that.
I can certainly reassure my right hon. Friend that, for a decision of such magnitude, we shall keep in mind the possibility of a referendum, if the Cabinet were to recommend British entry. That has been in my mind, as my right hon. Friend knows, for a long time and it remains there. I think that it is right to keep that before us for consideration.
Mr. Paddy Ashdown (Yeovil):
Watch that space. Is not it the case that what the Prime Minister has today described as a formidable programme is what he told us a year ago had about as much relevance as a rain dance? Some rain dance.
Does the Prime Minister understand that the whole nation has now spotted and understands his formula for ducking difficult decisions on Europe? It consists of obstructionism abroad, and appeasement at home; of playing the Euro-realist in the conference chamber, and the Euro-sceptic in the columns of The Daily Telegraph. Does the Prime Minister believe that that is the kind of leadership this country needs on an issue of such importance, and that we should be asked to hide from our future to cover the divisions in the Conservative party?
Does not the Prime Minister understand that trying to face both ways at once in Europe means that he cannot see what is right in front of him? What is now in front of us in Europe is rising nationalism within our borders, deepening chaos outside, and--I regret--the strong probability of isolationism growing in the United States of America. Chancellor Kohl can see that; President
Chirac can see that; and every other leader in Europe can see that. But the Prime Minister is so mesmerised by the divisions in his party that he is blind to it.
The Chancellor said only two days ago that he believed that there was a 60:40 chance of monetary union occurring before the end of the century, and that the economies that would join it would be the strong ones. Does the Prime Minister agree?
The Prime Minister:
The right hon. Gentleman started off by completely misquoting what I wrote in The Economist two years ago. The answer to his first question, therefore, is no. He was talking complete unadulterated rubbish, and continued to do so for some time. What I actually wrote in The Daily Telegraph was what I said in the conference chamber to my fellow Heads of Government. The right hon. Gentleman can therefore be in no doubt that the message I deliver here in this Chamber is--
Mr. Ashdown indicated dissent.
The Prime Minister:
Oh, the right hon. Gentleman shakes his head. He was there, was he? It was he who brought in the tea, coffee and the biscuits. What I said in that conference chamber is what I said here, what I wrote down and what I will take to the country.
The fact is that the right hon. Gentleman does not understand the issue. He has a slogan. He believes that whatever happens in Europe, he and his colleagues should rattle along behind it whether it is right or wrong, whether it is considered or not and whether it is in this country's interests or not. He does not know enough about the subject to consider the implications.
What the right hon. Gentleman said was copper-plated nonsense. He does not know, for example, what would be the effect of a partial EMU among some countries on Community decision taking. Can he tell me the answer to that question? Of course, he cannot. He does not even understand the question, let alone the answer. I shall spare the House the long list of the other questions that he does not understand.
Sir Terence Higgins (Worthing):
Is not it high time that we stopped talking about a single currency, as what is now envisaged is clearly a core currency? That is the expression that we should use. Is not it equally apparent that it is inconceivable that the members of an enlarged Community would be able to move towards a single currency in the foreseeable future?
On a referendum, is not this a highly complex issue? My right hon. Friend has rightly pointed out that the leader of the Liberal party does not understand it. The public do not even know the difference between a single and a common currency. Will my right hon. Friend therefore bear the complexity of the issues in mind?
The Prime Minister:
My right hon. Friend is entirely right to draw the distinction between a single and a core currency, because, as I said to the House a moment ago, at the outset only a minority would be members. In the couple of decades ahead, with the growth of the European Union, there is no prospect that there would be one single currency right across the enlarged European Union. Of course, it may cover some countries--that has certainly always been possible--but it will not cover them all. My right hon. Friend is right about that.
On the complexities of a referendum, I understand entirely my right hon. Friend's point, and that is why we are considering the matter carefully.
Mr. Peter Shore (Bethnal Green and Stepney):
The Prime Minister is clearly moving in the right direction--
[Interruption.] Will he confirm what he has previously said: that the United Kingdom will not join, or rejoin the exchange rate mechanism during this Parliament? If that is so, as I believe it is, will he confirm that the United Kingdom will not join a single currency on 1 January 1999 for the simple reason that whatever may be the wishes of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, we shall not conform with the necessary qualifying rule of rejoining the ERM two years before the actual decision about the single currency is made in March 1998?
Finally, will the right hon. Gentleman confirm that when he said that he would not recommend that Britain should join or rejoin the ERM after some countries have gone ahead and joined the single currency, that means in effect that we shall never join the single currency because one cannot join it unless one first rejoins the ERM?
The Prime Minister:
Let me try to clarify matters for the right hon. Gentleman. I was interested when he said that I was moving in the right direction, because the look of pain upon the faces of those on the Opposition Front Bench was a joy to behold. That was one of those occasions when I am so pleased that we have television in the Chamber.
I certainly reiterate to the right hon. Gentleman that I made it perfectly clear that we would not go back into the ERM in this Parliament. As I said in my statement, I do not propose that I would take sterling back into a changed ERM in the next Parliament either. The right hon. Gentleman concluded from that that we shall not meet the Maastricht criteria, but that is no longer the case, because the ERM that existed at the time of our membership no longer exists. If one were to apply those strict criteria, the reality would be that nobody would be able to enter a single currency. The other Maastricht criteria, of course, fully apply, while the ERM criteria for all of Europe disappear because, the right hon. Gentleman may recall, they were effectively to be a part of the inner band of the ERM, which no longer exists.
Mr. Tristan Garel-Jones (Watford):
As the number of difficult and technical issues connected with the move to a single currency mount, does not the wisdom of my right hon. Friend in negotiating a double option for Britain become more and more apparent? Will he give the country an assurance that he does not intend to throw away either of those options in the near future?
Secondly, will my right hon. Friend comment on the fact that the Leader of the Opposition, while criticising the opt-out that my right hon. Friend negotiated, clutches it to his own bosom? As the Leader of the Opposition says that there are no constitutional issues attached to a move to a single currency, is not the logic of his position that, if Britain were to be convergent, we would automatically enter a single currency?
The Prime Minister:
That is certainly the logic of the Leader of the Opposition's position, and we look forward to his early confirmation of that, so that no one can be in any doubt when he begins the great national debate that he has called for. With regard to my right hon. Friend's
Mr. Giles Radice (North Durham):
May I congratulate the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer on publicly resisting the demand of the right hon. Member for Wokingham (Mr. Redwood) and other Euro-sceptics that the Government rule out the option of Britain joining a single currency within the next Parliament?
The Prime Minister:
I indicated, first in my reply to the Leader of the Opposition 10 days ago and again over the weekend, that I was not prepared to rule out the option of joining a single currency in the next Parliament. Nobody should draw any conclusions either way about that, and I will reiterate to the hon. Gentleman why that is the case.
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