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Mr. Sykes: Civil servants in Whitehall making decisions would be bad enough, but what about shop stewards? The Opposition would put shop stewards left, right and centre--everywhere.
Mr. Deva: I agree entirely with my hon. Friend. If we add the endogenous growth theory to the idea of a stakeholding economy, we would find that the trade unions would come back into decision making.
Mr. David Lidington (Aylesbury): When I was preparing for this debate, I drew inspiration from the current edition of the New Statesman and Society and, in particular, from a telling analysis by Lord Desai, the former Opposition spokesman in the other place. His analysis is very different from the gloomy one put forward by so many Opposition Members tonight. He says that "the story all round" on the economy is positive, and that inflation is likely to "remain within" its target range in 1996, "dipping below 2.5 per cent." He notes that unemployment has fallen every month since March 1993 and now
- "appears to be falling faster than it was last year."
Manufacturing employment, on a downward trend since 1966, is now increasing once more and personal incomes are set to rise. In summary, he concludes that it would be foolish to count on the economic position helping Labour. Having listened to some Opposition Members, I think that Lord Desai is perhaps underestimating the extent to which the economic debate favours the Government rather than their political adversaries.
I listened with great care to the hon. Member for Newham, North-East (Mr. Timms), who spoke with characteristic passion and concern for the poor in society. Throughout his contribution, however, I heard no constructive Labour party alternative to the policies that the Government are pursuing. That is hardly surprising. After all, when we last debated economic matters, on the annual report presented by the Government on the domestic economy to the European Commission, the shadow Chief Secretary, the hon. Member for Oxford, East (Mr. Smith), was so confused that he strayed into the wrong Lobby by mistake and voted against his party's policy and against the United Kingdom's obligations under the treaty of Rome. We still have not heard an explanation. It may have been a deliberate act, or it may have been that the hon. Member for Hartlepool (Mr. Mandelson) was not available to lend the hon. Gentleman a guiding hand. Perhaps the hon. Member for Oxford, East has already written a letter of abject apology to President Santer and has been assured by the Leader of the Opposition, the right hon. Member for Sedgefield (Mr. Blair)--
Mr. Sykes:
Will my hon. Friend give way?
Mr. Lidington:
I shall press on because of the time constraint.
The outlook for the immediate future is certainly encouraging. The Government are entitled to take credit for that. The long-term trends, however, undoubtedly present serious challenges. The twin pressures of international competition and computer technology will not disappear. Those pressures are responsible for many of the difficulties experienced by individual firms and families, to which hon. Members on both sides of the House have alluded.
We do not have to be uncritical admirers of Correlli Barnett's thesis about Britain's economic history to appreciate the risks of a country or continent that tries to live beyond its means or which seeks to pay for social policies that it cannot generate the wealth to finance properly. The great risk for Europe--not only the United Kingdom--is stagnation, or what is termed by the pundits Eurosclerosis, which would destroy our ability as a continent to generate new jobs at a time when we face fearsome competition from the far east and from the American continent.
It is depressing that Labour Members have failed to acknowledge global pressures along with their uncritical acceptance of the regulatory approach that is peddled in Brussels, which has damaged employment prospects and blighted the economies of some of our continental neighbours. That approach would have the same consequences in this country if the Labour party were ever to get its hands on the levers of economic power.
The Government can point to many initiatives that have helped to provide jobs and to bring investment to the United Kingdom. Through our privatisation policies we have ensured that British firms and foreign firms investing here have lower charges for telecommunications and for fuel than they would have had under the old nationalised regime. They face lower charges than those that apply in many international competitor countries.
Our non-wage labour costs remain lower here than in most of our continental competitor countries due to the Government's policy of keeping regulations and business taxes to the bare minimum.
We should concentrate our attention now on what my hon. Friend the Member for Carshalton and Wallington (Mr. Forman) described as investment in human capital. I have been heartened to see in my constituency how modern apprenticeships are being valued both by the providers of that training and by the employers who take on the trainees after graduation. I was encouraged, too, to see how general national vocational qualifications are beginning, at last, to provide the stratum of technical pre-vocational education that has been lacking in this country for a century and which, until the lifetime of this Government, we had never got around to dealing with adequately.
I hope that the Dearing review, which will be reported before long, will carry those developments further. In my view, it is not just a matter of money. If one studies the figures in publications such as "Social Trends", one will see that we compare favourably with most of our competitor countries in terms of spending per head. The key question is how to deliver higher standards in primary education so that we avoid having to take remedial measures later, and in training and university education, too.
Mr. Andrew Smith (Oxford, East):
For a debate that was called by the Government, speeches from Conservative Members fell flat, just as the Chancellor's speech did. We were waiting to hear what great, new initiative of Government policy would be announced. Yet there was no announcement. As my hon. Friend the Member for Coventry, South-East (Mr. Cunningham) pointed out, there were no new ideas from Conservative Members, although the hon. Member for Dover(Mr. Shaw) sought to get Treasury Ministers to commit themselves to a flat tax. I look forward to hearing, when the President of the Board of Trade replies, whether they will consider the hon. Gentleman's proposal. That was the only new idea that we heard.
The hon. Member for Wyre Forest (Mr. Coombs) took comfort from forecasts in The Economist, which, he said, were exceeded only by those for Australia. I do not know whether he followed the news over the weekend and learnt the right lessons from Australia. His hon. Friend the Member for Ribble Valley (Mr. Evans) clearly had, and said that the results from Spain and Australia had set a trend. I am not sure that he had the trend exactly right. The correct parallel to draw with this country is that long-established Governments who had made significant changes to their country were ejected from office by an insecure electorate who believed that it was time for a change.
The hon. Member for Carshalton and Wallington(Mr. Forman), in a thoughtful speech, highlighted the nature of global competition, the constraints on national monetary and fiscal policy, and the over-arching importance, where resources and capital are mobile in today's world, of investing in what he called "human capital" and what we would call people. That is pretty much the argument that the Labour party has made. Indeed, my hon. Friend the Member for Huddersfield(Mr. Sheerman), in an excellent speech and with great vigour did precisely that and spelt out proposals to raise education standards and skill levels and to stimulate innovation. The hon. Member for Carshalton got his answer there.
My hon. Friends the Members for Grimsby(Mr. Mitchell) and for Huddersfield rightly drew our attention to the importance of manufacturing industry, not, as is sometimes misrepresented by Conservative Members, instead of the service sector but as an essential complement to it, because in a essential economy the health of one depends on the other. That is the point that my hon. Friends were making.
My right hon. Friend the Member for Ashton-under-Lyne (Mr. Sheldon) pointed out how alarming it is that, despite the fall in inflation, Britain has had low investment, and that despite a huge devaluation there are pressures on the balance of payments.
My hon. Friend the Member for Sherwood(Mr. Tipping) rightly drew attention to the importance of training and motivating young people, because it is they who are suffering most from the insecurity that is afflicting the labour market. How indefensible not only that the Government are abolishing the community action programme but that the Chancellor of the Exchequer cannot even remember the name of the projects that he supposes will replace it.
Anyone reading the motion must wonder why people feel so insecure--why only 20 per cent. of the public have any confidence in the Government's economic policies.
We know the answer given by the President of the Board of Trade: "It is all in the mind". What he actually said--at a briefing during the CBI conference in Birmingham in November--was:
"What I am saying is that job insecurity is a state of mind."
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