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Mr. Patten: Does my hon. Friend recognise that, by attributing to me an approval of the present law that requires people to live separately for two or five years, he has baited a trap and fallen into it? At no stage have I argued that. I have argued, however, that there should be a proper period of reflection for 18 months or two years, during which people can go through reconciliation and mediation. Does he recognise that it is not wise to put words in other people's mouths?
Mr. Evans: I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for that clarification. The outcome of his comments is that he recognises that the current structure of the law should not be supported, and in those circumstances the Bill presents us with the opportunity to address the very problem that he has outlined.
Let me also deal with a specific point to which my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Duchy promised that I would respond. My right hon. Friend the Member for Oxford, West and Abingdon asked what was the Government's view as to whether there was likely to be a decline in the number of divorces. I am loth to make too many predictions, because my right hon. Friend quoted an article in The Spectator by Ruth Deetch--whom my right hon. Friend said is one of his constituents. She wrote:
I pay attention to her interdiction about predictions, but I am happy to predict that when the Bill is passed, the requirement for a 12-month cooling-off period is certain to result in a reduction in the number of divorces. It follows, and is clear from the measure, that no one will be able to go through the divorce process before the one-year cooling-off period.
Sir Michael Neubert:
As that point has been made more than once, will that not be a one-off effect and, thereafter, the sequence will follow and there will be no reduction in the number of divorces?
Mr. Evans:
I accept my hon. Friend's point, but I was invited to predict the outcome of passing the Bill. My hon. Friend probably agrees that that would be the response. However, the structure that I have outlined infinitely promotes reconciliation over the current situation. I hope that, in due course, we would not return to the current figures. The objective of not returning to that disadvantageous situation underpins the Government's proposals. I would be surprised if my hon. Friend is happy with the current structure of divorce law. Our proposals present my hon. Friend and me with the opportunity of doing something about it.
Mr. Leigh:
Does my hon. Friend accept that the only safe way to predict the future is through past experience? The introduction of no-fault divorce in America has resulted in a 20 per cent. increase in the divorce rate.
Mr. Evans:
I certainly do not want to follow the American experience, which is one reason why we have not gone down the American route of a specific period of separation and the no-fault provision. The requirement for a cooling-off period, and for a period during which active steps will be taken through mediation to resolve issues in relation to children, finance and property in a less hostile atmosphere is a big advantage over the practice in the
The hon. Member for Brent, South asked for an idea of the way in which mediation will proceed. Particular interest was shown in the debate in the situation in respect of legal advice and representation. The current cost of supporting lawyers to undertake legal aid divorce cases is £376 million--a huge sum that amounts to much more than £2,000 for each couple. It is clear from all the studies of mediation that it is not likely to be anywhere near as expensive as a protracted or contested divorce. My hon. Friend the Member for Chislehurst (Mr. Sims), who has substantial knowledge of the subject, recounted his experience. He will confirm that the costs of mediation are significantly less. It is important that couples should have access to green form legal advice and, if they are eligible, it will be available to them during the mediation process. If the parties are found not to be susceptible to dealing with matters by mediation, ultimately the court process will be available to them.
I say to my hon. Friends, as I said at the outset of the debate, that we are dealing with issues of fundamental importance to the people of Britain. Some people have asked whether we should be engaged in a debate about divorce. Divorce touches more than half a million people a year. If the current structure does not work well, we have to resolve it, and that is what the Bill will do.
Question put, That the Bill be now read a Second time:--
"Experience should have taught us to be wary of predictions about future human behaviour."
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