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Mr. John Biffen (North Shropshire): Is my right hon. and learned Friend aware that many hon. Members fully appreciate the intractable nature of the problems? To enable the House the better to make an assessment, can he say what has been the reaction of our European Union partners, either explicitly or informally, to the findings of Professor Anderson and his Oxford team?
Mr. Hogg: They are still considering the significance of the findings. There is no substantial challenge to the central proposition that the disease will have been largely eradicated from the national herd by around the turn of the century. There will be some debate as to the extent of the tail past 2001, but the plain fact is that the disease is dying away from its high point of 36,500 confirmed cases in 1992. The figure last year was about 15,000, while this year we shall see about 8,000 cases. The numbers are falling by 40 per cent. year on year, so we are fairly confident about the 2001 date. However, there will be some dispute about the size of the tail.
Mr. Archy Kirkwood (Roxburgh and Berwickshire): I shall be interested to hear how the Minister justifies his statement that he is not walking away from the Florence agreement. How does he square his announcement this afternoon with that statement? Does he agree that the selective cull cannot start until the over-30-month cull has been completed? Will he give an assurance that he will take emergency powers to clear the OTM backlog unless it has been cleared by Christmas? How does this afternoon's announcement square with the possibility of getting a partial lifting of the export ban on the basis of regional and accredited herds?
Mr. Hogg: The hon. Gentleman will recall that the Florence agreement explicitly stated that proposals should be considered in the light of the most up-to-date scientific and objective criteria, and we are invoking that. He will have heard me tell the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Dr. Strang) that last week we succeeded in slaughtering just short of 40,000 cattle under the 30-month scheme. I intend to increase the weekly slaughter to about 55,000, and I very much hope that we shall clear the backlog by the end of the year.
We are working on the concept of certified herds, which will be a scheme involving herds that one could plausibly describe as having had no association with BSE--the hon. Member for Roxburgh and Berwickshire (Mr. Kirkwood) will forgive me for using shorthand here--of which the beef assurance scheme is one sub-set, and we are in contact with the Commission about that. The schemes are general in their application in the United Kingdom, although it may well be that some parts of the United Kingdom--especially with regard to the certified herds scheme--will find it easier to satisfy the criteria sooner than others.
Mr. Michael Alison (Selby):
In his helpful letter to colleagues on 23 September, my right hon. and learned Friend referred to his recognition of the fact that the specialist beef industry had been hard hit in the past six months. He went on to state that a £60 million cash
Mr. Hogg:
My right hon. Friend is entirely right. He will forgive me if I remind the House about the package of £109 million that I announced in July which is general in its application. He touched on the £60 million for HLCAs, and he will forgive me if I refer again to the £29 million that I announced at Bournemouth, which again is general in its application. As I also mentioned at Bournemouth, there are discussions within the EU about the nature and shape of a future beef support package. We shall make a judgment on whether there are further national steps that we can take when we have seen the outcome of those discussions.
Mr. Martyn Jones (Clwyd, South-West):
The Minister has had more than three months to negotiate a timetable for the lifting of the ban, but he is no further forward. Is it not time that someone else had a try?
Mr. Hogg:
The hon. Gentleman is not right to say that I am no further forward. There is a recognition that there may be scope for movement in respect of certified herds in the beef assurance scheme, but the plain truth is that there is an unwillingness on the part of a number of member states--for example, Germany--to lift the ban rapidly and substantially. The reason for that is the concern that EU Agriculture Ministers feel about demand in their countries, and their political anxieties about the reaction of their farming constituents to lifting the ban. That is clearly an obstacle to a rapid and substantial lifting of the ban. It should not be, but it is and the House needs to face that fact.
Sir Jim Spicer (West Dorset):
My right hon. and learned Friend is right, but is it not true that the Commission is being fair and impartial in examining the scientific evidence, whereas all the other member states--particularly Germany--are determined that they will not lift the ban until BSE is eradicated in this country, whatever we do? If that ban is to remain in place until 2001 plus--probably 2002, 2003 or 2004--why on earth are people suggesting that we should go down the road of a massive additional slaughter, with nothing to show for it?
Mr. Hogg:
My hon. Friend puts the argument clearly. As to our relations with the Commission, we have worked closely with it, and our working relations with the Commissioner and his officials are good. It is true that a number of member states have proved pretty obdurate. I am not as pessimistic as my hon. Friend about the date when the ban will be lifted. I have already mentioned certified herds, so I shall not repeat that. If confidence in beef were restored in EU member states, those states might be willing to make more rapid progress than seems likely at the moment.
Sir James Molyneaux (Lagan Valley):
Does the Minister accept that the case for the exclusion of Northern
Mr. Hogg:
The right hon. Gentleman makes an important point. There have been under 2,000 confirmed cases of BSE in the Province--I am using figures off the cuff, so I might be marginally wrong, but I think that there have been about 1,700. I think that there have been 46 cases this year--again, that figure is off the cuff--which is very low. Northern Ireland has a much better traceability scheme than the rest of the United Kingdom. That is a reflection of its computer-based movement-recording system. The concept of certified herds was worked out with Northern Ireland very much in mind. It is not specific to Northern Ireland in the sense that it excludes any other part of the United Kingdom, but I fancy that Northern Ireland will find it easier to satisfy the criteria.
Sir Hector Monro (Dumfries):
I appreciate the excellent work that my right hon. and learned Friend and his colleagues in the four countries are doing. Does he appreciate that the day-to-day complaints that one gets on farms concern the 30-month scheme? Despite the excellent figures that he has given, which show an improvement in the past week or two, will he try to speed things up even more? With winter approaching, cattle now have to come in and that is costing farmers a great deal of additional money while the value is dropping.
Mr. Hogg:
My right hon. Friend is right. I am conscious that the farming industry and right hon. and hon. Members are particularly concerned about the backlog. That is why I announced the £16.6 million last Tuesday, which we shall use to take up cold storage facilities of various kinds. Last week, we were a few score short of 40,000 killed, which is a huge improvement on what we have been averaging. I hope that we shall get the weekly cull rate up to 55,000. If we can, and if we can sustain it, I hope that we shall clear the backlog by around Christmas or the end of the year.
Mr. D. N. Campbell-Savours (Workington):
The Minister has repeatedly stated that our European partners are stopping us selling our meat in Europe and arguing that the ban should not be lifted. If that is the case, why does he not stand before a committee of European Members of Parliament? They have asked him to give evidence to such a committee, so that he can reassure them. Is the real reason why he will not meet them and give evidence the fact that he has something to hide? Is not the truth that in so far as the whole market for beef throughout the Community has been destroyed, the Minister should be prepared to give evidence directly?
Mr. Hogg:
That is an interesting question, because it tells us something about the Labour party's attitude to the relationship of Ministers to the House and to the European Union. Let me state clearly to whom I am accountable: I am accountable to this House and to the British electorate and this is the only place to which I am accountable. In
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