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Mr. Hogg: What we are doing is proceeding with a process that was agreed in Florence. I do not want the House to be under any misunderstanding. I certainly accept that it will be difficult and slow to achieve a complete lifting of the ban, but I think that we have a reasonable chance of securing a partial lifting of the ban, for example, in respect of the certified herds. We shall then press on, for example, in respect of cattle born after a certain date. However, unless we commit ourselves to implementing the selective cull, we can be certain that there will be no progress of any kind.

Mr. Tam Dalyell (Linlithgow): At the bottom of page 2 of his opening statement, the Minister referred to the latest scientific evidence not known at the time of the Florence agreement. What part of the scientific evidence was so crucial as to have altered policy?

Mr. Hogg: The most interesting, but by no means the only, piece of scientific evidence that came to the fore after the Florence agreement was the possibility of maternal transmission.

Mr. James Couchman (Gillingham): The House will be glad to have heard from my right hon. and learned Friend that we are now to go ahead with the selective cull, which should enable us to meet the Florence conditions. Can he be more specific about the timetable? He has said that the process will be difficult and slow, but what does that mean? How difficult and how slow? During his discussions in Dublin, was he given any indication by his fellow Agriculture Ministers that some other scientific reasons may be dreamed up in order to frustrate our return to exporting beef?

Mr. Hogg: I shall be talking to Agriculture Ministers tomorrow and after that I may be in a slightly better position to respond to my hon. Friend's questions than I am now.

It is important that we do not set out a false prospectus. What we have achieved at Florence is a process that is capable, given good will, of leading step by step to a lifting of the ban. It will take time, however, and there are

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a variety of reasons why member states will be reluctant to agree--most notably the internal pressure that they face from their farmers, consumers and those who are involved in the collapse in their markets for beef consumption. It is therefore unwise to talk in terms of timetables, but I can say that we will put our formal proposals--the working document--on the certified herds to the Commission at about the end of January next year. The Commission will then--I hope shortly thereafter--put the proposals to the Standing Veterinary Committee and the other veterinary committees. We need some delay before going to the Commission because there is a consultation process in respect of the certified herds which concludes on 17 January. It is desirable that we should complete that process before putting our firm proposals to the Commission.

Mr. Barry Jones (Alyn and Deeside): Will the right hon. and learned Gentleman acknowledge the very real difficulties of beef farmers in north-east Wales? Can he guarantee my constituents easy access to abattoirs as they try to cope with the problem? Finally, will he consider an invitation from me to visit Pwll farm in Treuddyn, where Mr. Idris Roberts, who is the leader of Flintshire National Farmers Union, could give him a reasonable and helpful tutorial on these matters?

Mr. Hogg: That is a kind offer--the only problem is that I have no departmental responsibility for agriculture in Wales and, therefore, I might trespass on the ground of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Wales.

There are two different points relating to abattoirs and the availability of spaces within them. In respect of slaughtering under the accelerated cull, I do not anticipate any difficulty with finding ready slots for slaughtering cattle under that scheme. In respect of the over-30-months scheme, there were delays and I shall not try to pretend otherwise. I am glad to say that the backlog has now been cleared and I do not think that the hon. Gentleman's constituents should be having any current difficulty with finding slots for the slaughter of their beasts. If I am wrong on that point, the hon. Gentleman should talk to my hon. Friend the Minister of State and we shall see what we can do to help.

Sir Jim Spicer (West Dorset): Will my right hon. and learned Friend accept the thanks of the farming community, both in my constituency and in the west country as a whole, for the way in which the herculean task of dealing with more than 1 million cattle so far has been tackled and especially for achieving a figure of more than 60,000 in the past few weeks? Does he agree that the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Dr. Strang) does not understand the position that we were in a few months ago? If he had been a west country farmer, facing the prospect of 102 cattle still caught in the backlog of the 30-months cull, the last thing he would have wanted would have been a Minister coming forward with a scheme like this. We had to get the backlog cleared before moving on.

Does my right hon. and learned Friend also agree that the hon. Member for North Cornwall (Mr. Tyler) misses the point when he asks why we cannot act quickly? All my constituents want some flexibility, because they are

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coming up to the end of the quota year. In the interests of the farming community, we must have flexibility in the way in which we deal with this problem.

Mr. Hogg: I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his kind observations. I am well aware, from a spirited meeting that I attended in the west country, of the concern felt by farmers in my hon. Friend's constituency and elsewhere about the backlog. I am glad that we have been able to clear the backlog. My hon. Friend is right to say that by clearing the backlog we have brought about a change in sentiment within the farming industry. Previously, it was hostile to the cull. I believe that farmers, generally speaking, now want us to carry out the cull.

On the question of flexibility, my hon. Friend is again right to say that that is important. In those cases where we are contemplating culling a substantial number of cattle from a single herd, we shall try to do it in at least two tranches.

Several hon. Members rose--

Mr. Deputy Speaker (Sir Geoffrey Lofthouse): Order. Many hon. Members are hoping to catch my eye, so briefer questions and brief answers would be welcome and helpful.

Mr. William Ross (East Londonderry): Is the computerised tracing scheme that the Minister is setting up in Great Britain comparable with the one that already exists in Northern Ireland? Will he explain how his statement today will impact on the beef industry in Northern Ireland where, I believe, most herds will qualify almost immediately for the certified herd scheme? Will he also explain the implications for the flagged holdings in Northern Ireland, specifically suckler herds? Will he give an undertaking that arrangements for the cull will be better than those for the 30-months scheme?

Mr. Hogg: I imagine, Mr. Deputy Speaker, that you will want me to concentrate on what I judge to be the core of the hon. Gentleman's question, which is the significance of the statement to Northern Ireland.

The hon. Gentleman will have an opportunity very soon to study the discussion document or consultation paper on certified herds and he will see two matters of particular relevance to Northern Ireland. First, the criteria to determine which animals are capable of being classified as certified herds will be met by many herds and cattle in Northern Ireland. Secondly, when it comes to proving eligibility--that will be an absolutely essential part of the scheme--Northern Ireland is extremely well placed, by reason of its computer-based system, to achieve that. I cannot think of any part of the United Kingdom that is better placed to meet the criteria than is Northern Ireland and I can think of no part of the United Kingdom that is likely to make more rapid progress in satisfying the criteria than is Northern Ireland.

Mr. Tony Marlow (Northampton, North): My right hon. and learned Friend has just been talking about Northern Ireland. I understand that the selective cull there could go through very quickly. If so, we would then

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discover our European partners' bona fides in respect of lifting the ban. Is it not a question of hastening the process in Northern Ireland and then thinking again about whether we should pursue the cull more widely?

Mr. Hogg: I would not commend that course of action to my hon. Friend, for the following reason. He will remember that, at the end of my statement, I said that, in my view, a commitment to the selective cull is an essential, indispensable precondition to making any progress. I do not think that we would secure any progress if the cull to which we committed ourselves was partial or regional. Consequently, the cull that we are proposing is UK-wide and will be carried out UK-wide. The application regarding certified herds is couched in UK-wide terms, but the hon. Member for East Londonderry (Mr. Ross) and my hon. Friend will have heard what I just said about Northern Ireland.

Mrs. Gwyneth Dunwoody (Crewe and Nantwich): Is not it clear that such a scheme, especially for England, would be extremely difficult and time-consuming to impose? There is no base line, and there are certainly no existing arrangements that would meet the conditions that are found specifically in Northern Ireland, and also in Scotland, at present.

Does the Minister accept that he has demonstrated this afternoon that European countries with large agricultural industries have no intention of helping us while they are supplying our markets and have no intention of listening to anything from the scatter-gun approach that he suggests today?

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