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Mr. Hogg: What the hon. Lady is saying is something like this: that the certified herd scheme will not be applicable to very many herds in England, and she has a point. There are at least three areas, however, on which she may not have fully focused. The first is the beef assurance scheme. Cattle which fall within the beef assurance scheme will, by definition, qualify under the certified herd scheme, provided that at the material date they are not more than 30 months of age. Secondly, we have had cattle passports as from 1 July--about 713,000 have been issued thus far--and that is a good basis for matching cattle with our confirmed case computer base. Moreover, in respect of some herds in which cattle have never moved from the natal herd, we shall be able to satisfy the eligibility criteria, but it will be easier in Northern Ireland than it is in other parts of the United Kingdom.

Mr. John Townend (Bridlington): Does my right hon. and learned Friend accept that there will be considerable disappointment that we are going ahead with the selective cull without obtaining firm and copper-bottomed guarantees as to when the export ban will be lifted? Many of us do not trust our European friends and we believe that they will keep the ban going for year after year. What happens if we complete the cull and they still refuse to lift the ban? May I suggest that the only way in which we shall get any success is to tell them that, if they do not lift our ban after we have spent £3.2 billion, we shall ban their beef from being imported into this country?

Mr. Hogg: I understand my hon. Friend's position, but it has always been so. The Florence agreement did not

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provide for a timetable. Perhaps I may put the argument the other way round: if we do not commit ourselves to a selective cull, there will certainly be no progress.

Mr. Harry Barnes (North-East Derbyshire): The Minister talked about the cattle passport scheme, and I believe he mentioned the figure of 713,000 passports. Does that scheme meet in every respect the provisions in the Florence arrangement, which talks about an animal identification scheme? Does it meet the provisions throughout the United Kingdom or is it more likely to meet them in Northern Ireland?

Mr. Hogg: The hon. Gentleman has given me an opportunity to correct one error that I made. I said 713,000; I should have said 751,000, and I apologise.

The cattle passport scheme does meet the requirements of Florence. We shall improve it. As the hon. Gentleman may know, on 10 December I published a consultation document on a computer-based traceability system, which will be an enhancement on the paper-based system and will be run in a way that is compatible with proposals made by the European Commission. On the narrow question that the hon. Gentleman asked, namely, is our identification now up to scratch, the answer is yes, and it is better than is to be found in most European states.

Sir Wyn Roberts (Conwy): Am I right in thinking that, in last month's Opposition day debate on BSE, the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Dr. Strang) gave a strong commitment to supporting the cull? Has my right hon. and learned Friend had a renewal of that commitment?

Mr. Hogg: My right hon. Friend makes a fair point, which is one of the reasons why I said that the hon. Member for Edinburgh, East (Dr. Strang) was less than gracious in his response to my statement. The hon. Gentleman will remember the intervention that I made in his winding-up speech, when he gave a categorical commitment to support the selective cull.

Dr. Strang indicated assent.

Mr. Hogg: I see he is nodding. That is good of him, but I am bound to say that we have got it down and will keep it in evidence against him.

Mr. Alan W. Williams (Carmarthen): The Minister has made it clear that he does not have European agreement to the further slaughter. How confident is he that his fellow Ministers in the European Community will agree with the methodology involved in targeting those specific animals? Are not we now in the worst of all worlds--where we have no European agreement and the Minister does not truly believe in the programme? When the Minister is reduced to doing something that he does not believe in, is not it time that he went and made way for someone who knows what he is doing?

Mr. Hogg: We do have agreement as to the concept that underpinned the figure of 128,000. Those concepts, which were set out in the eradication programme that we submitted, were approved at the time of the Florence agreement. So we have agreement on the point of the three cohorts plus the voluntary cohort. We shall have to form a view on whether there will be an attempt to add

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to those numbers on account of "maternal transmission" when we have better evidence from the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee in spring 1997.

The hon. Gentleman says that I do not agree with the programme. That is not true. I well understand why several hon. Members wish that we could have a timetable. I accept that it is difficult to justify a cull in scientific terms--it will not improve public health--but one must stand back and ask oneself a different question: whether, if we do not have a cull, we shall make progress. In the absence of a selective cull, we shall make no progress, and on that basis I defend it.

Rev. Ian Paisley (North Antrim): The Minister made it clear that at first there was opposition to the Florence cull. Can he confirm that no opposition came from the Ulster Farmers Union, which backed an immediate culling? He also told the House that Northern Ireland would be in a very favourable position. If that is so, is he prepared immediately to propose to Agriculture Ministers that Northern Ireland should be made a special case? Will he take from the Prime Minister a letter delivered to him by myself and the leader of the SDLP, which made it clear that the German Minister of Agriculture was now of a mind to change his view and support Northern Ireland as a special case?

Mr. Hogg: The hon. Gentleman is right to say that the farmers of Ulster have always supported a cull, for reasons such as those that underpinned the question asked by the hon. Member for East Londonderry (Mr. Ross). We shall, as expeditiously as we can, go to the European Commission and, through it, the Standing Veterinary Committee and the other experts, with our full working document, which will set out our concept of a certified herd scheme, which will be UK-wide in its application. I do believe, however, for the reasons that I mentioned to the hon. Member for East Londonderry, that Northern Ireland is very well placed to satisfy the eligibility criteria and--even more to the point--to have that satisfaction of the criteria established positively, so that the European Union can be satisfied that it is valid.

Mr. Tony Banks (Newham, North-West): First, if we can have a cattle passport scheme, when can we have a passport scheme for pets? Secondly, what is the total cost of the BSE eradication scheme to date, including compensation, transport, slaughter, rendering and incineration?

Mr. Hogg: On the first question, the hon. Gentleman must wait on events. On the second question, the overall cost committed--not money spent, but committed over the relevant periods set out in the documents--is slightly more than £3 billion.

Mr. Edward Garnier (Harborough): May I endorse the sentiments expressed by my hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset (Sir J. Spicer), and the broad thrust of his question? What my farmers require is a greater degree of certainty. Can my right hon. and learned Friend tell me when the selective cull will come into effect? I do not want to know the end date; I want to know when it will begin. Can my right hon. and learned Friend also tell me the operative date for deciding the market value of any particular beast?

Mr. Hogg: We intend valuation to be taken as at the day of valuation, which will give a degree of certainty.

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As my hon. and learned Friend will see in the consultation document, however, we have contemplated the possibility of some other date, and if people want to argue in favour of some other date we shall manifestly take their representations into account.

When the culling will start rather depends on whether the House wants to debate the compensation order. I anticipate that it may want to do so, but I do not suppose that that will happen until the latter part of January. We cannot slaughter until we have debated the order, if that is the will of the House, and get approval if we do so; but we might be in a position to start the slaughter in February or early March.

Mr. Elfyn Llwyd (Meirionnydd Nant Conwy): I welcomed the rather belated statement about the selective cull, but has the Minister learnt any lessons from the over-30-months scheme, which involved huge backlogs in parts of north Wales? The Minister might have to look again at the overall structure of the scheme that he is introducing. I was very disturbed by his earlier comment that some parts of the United Kingdom would make more rapid progress than others: that does not sound to me like uniformity.

Mr. Hogg: The hon. Gentleman has made a number of points. The reference to rapid progress was actually a reference to the fact that Northern Ireland is particularly well placed to satisfy the criteria, and also to prove that the criteria have been satisfied. As for the accelerated cull programme, I do not anticipate any difficulty in ensuring rapid slaughter. As the hon. Gentleman well knows, we raised the slaughter capacity in regard to the over-30-months scheme to 60,000 a week. It has now plummeted, and there is now a good deal of capacity to enable us to carry out that slaughter.

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