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I hope that we shall consider a system that would allow those communities to speak. They may not have exactly the same size of electorate, but, with a fair electoral system, that does not matter. I do not want to go into detail, but, for example, the Kent part of Greater London could elect three members, the Surrey part could elect six members and the Middlesex part could elect 10 members, if those are the right proportions. The areas do not have to have the same number of constituencies.
I want to ensure that all the ethnic communities also feel that they can own the result of the election. For them to feel part of it, they must be in a constituency big enough to allow them to be represented. If only one person is elected from my constituency--it might be a white man or woman, or a black man or woman--there is only one person to represent everybody in Southwark, North and Bermondsey. If the constituency covered all of the old Surrey part of London, there would be seven, eight or nine members elected. It is likely that those elected representatives would include someone with a Cypriot background, a black person and an Asian representative. There would also probably be a roughly even balance between women and men. That is very important. I do not want anyone to feel that the assembly does not speak for
them. I am far more concerned about that than about the political balance, because it is important that everybody owns the place.
Of course it would be nonsense if there were a majority of members--that majority would have come from Labour if the election had been this year--who did not command a majority of support among Londoners. That would not reflect what Londoners wanted. I want secure legislation.
I do not have a prescription or all the answers. My party is not dogmatic about the issue or arrogant about the outcome. In Scotland, the Liberal Democrats negotiated with Labour and others, arriving at an outcome that was different from the place where we all started. We have ended up with a mixed system--some alternative vote and some single transferable vote. That may be what we decide on. I ask the Committee, rather than rushing into what might be the wrong decision, to agree a procedure to take the discussion out of this place so that we can try to reach the maximum agreement on the system. If we can agree on the best system for all of us, we can go out to fight our own corners and the Londonwide body will have the variety, pluralism and benefit of all our voices. I hope that the Committee and the Government will welcome positively a proposal that would give us the best way of arriving at the best electoral system.
Sir Norman Fowler:
The hon. Member for Southwark, North and Bermondsey (Mr. Hughes) may not have been born muttering "STV", but he was certainly born muttering "proportional representation". Although he slightly wrapped up his message, it is clear from new clause 1 that what he proposes is proportional representation. It will not come as an enormous surprise to the hon. Gentleman that I take a radically different position, which is set out in amendments Nos. 25 and 26 and can be summarised as support for the first-past-the-post system.
I will illustrate my case by referring to what happened in the 1997 general election. It might be thought that the Conservatives would favour a more proportional system because, with the first-past-the-post system, the result was that Labour won 419 seats whereas the Conservatives won 165. On that basis, some Ministers believe that they do not need to bother with the arguments and that hon. Members can take it or leave it.
It is a useful correction to remember that on the basis of pure proportionality, the result of the 1997 election would have been that Labour had 285 seats and the Conservatives 202 seats. Achieving that result under a PR system is anything but easy, however, as has been demonstrated conclusively by the Democratic Audit of the United Kingdom, an organisation run in association with the London school of economics and Birkbeck college. It employed ICM which interviewed 8,500 voters straight after the election and asked them to vote again using the main PR systems that were being advocated.
Under the alternative vote system, Labour would have won 436 seats and the Conservatives would have been down to 110. Rather than making the system fairer or more proportional, as the hon. Member for Southwark, North and Bermondsey claims, that type of PR would
make it substantially worse. The same is true of the supplementary vote system, a close cousin of the alternative vote system which is, I gather, used for presidential elections in Sri Lanka.
The same survey showed that with the single transferable vote system, Labour support would be overstated. Our own support would be understated and Liberal Democrat support would be significantly overstated. Doubtless that is why the single transferable vote system is the Liberal Democrats' favoured system.
On the basis of the 1997 election, the only system of PR that would come close to proportionality is the additional member system. If the election had been based on having half elected locally and half elected regionally, there would have been about 300 Labour Members, 200 Conservative Members and just over 100 Liberal Democrat Members.
A different price is paid for that system. Half the representatives--it does not need to be half because the proportion can be different--are elected without constituencies to represent. The direct link goes; it would go almost entirely if we went to an entire list system under which, in effect, the party chooses and controls the candidate. The candidate is answerable to the party and not to the public; I find that entirely objectionable.
For a range of reasons, I strongly support the retention of the first-past-the-post system for London elections. First, I am aware of no overwhelming reason or public demand for a change to proportional representation. The survey to which I referred showed that 41 per cent. were in favour of first past the post, 44 per cent. supported the additional member system and 14 per cent. were undecided, so it was very much even stevens.
The Government have already promised a referendum on PR in parliamentary elections during this Parliament. That is already pledged. There will then be a full debate and the issues will be explored. I see no case for changing the system in London before that referendum.
Secondly, I am strongly opposed to breaking the link between the elected representative and the public. I do not accept the implicit argument in the Green Paper that London's assemblymen are in effect strategic thinkers. The Green Paper says:
I do not believe that any of the PR systems proposed has a clear advantage over the first-past-the-post system. As the democratic audit shows, a number of the PR systems produce a worse result in terms of proportionality. Others, such as the list system or the partial list system, simply destroy the link with the public and put the party and not the public in the driving seat.
The first-past-the-post system provides certainty. It is easy to understand. It has provided elected Governments that are able to govern--and that can be applied to local
government. It has not generally led to coalition deals which the public may not want and which may result in entirely unforeseen policies.
I am encouraged by one of the Minister's statements this afternoon. When one of my hon. Friends suggested that PR was inevitable, the Minister appeared to dissent from that proposition and said that no decision had been made. I welcome that. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will think extremely carefully before introducing election by PR for London. The Conservative party is opposed to PR. We will campaign against it and we believe that the case has not remotely been made for it. We favour the first-past-the-post system.
Sir Paul Beresford (Mole Valley):
I support my right hon. Friend the Member for Sutton Coldfield (Sir N. Fowler), and would like to add to some of the points that he has made. I recognise that I am no longer a London Member. I speak merely from my experience as a Conservative councillor in London for a considerable time. I have resisted the temptation to accept the invitation from the hon. Member for Southwark, North and Bermondsey (Mr. Hughes) to speak as an ethnic minority. In the light of some of the recent rugby matches, it is best if I do not do that.
My memory of London government under the GLC and the ILEA is bitter. It did not matter who was in control, there was conflict at every stage. I am concerned that the Labour Government have produced a proposal tacked on to the wish for a voice for London, and then proceeded to destroy its strength. The proposal for proportional representation is the last nail in that coffin.
We will have a series of levels of potential conflict between the boroughs, the GLA, the mayor, the regional development authority, the Government office for London and the Government. In the middle, we shall have the assembly, which could be elected by proportional representation. The experience in this country and many others, as reflected in the comments of my right hon. Friend the Member for Sutton Coldfield, is that we tend to end up with deals--a hung assembly.
"The method of election to the assembly needs to reflect and support the role of assembly members. Assembly members will be required to think and act strategically, looking at London-wide issues and the long-term interests of the capital. We do not think they need to or should duplicate the local representational roles of borough Councillors, MPs and Euro-MPs."
I do not see how a representative can think strategically or in any other political way without being linked to the local community. We do not want assemblymen who are insulated from public opinion. Therefore, we want assemblymen representing the existing boroughs and--if the Government introduce such a system--elected on a first-past-the-post system.
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