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Mr. Bercow: My hon. Friend is entirely correct. The President of the Board of Trade is proposing to kick the ladder away from those who might have had the chance to get their feet upon its first rungs. That is disgraceful. It is an exploitation of her position in favour of the strong and to the detriment of the weak. She is culpable and she will be held responsible in due course.
It is regrettable that the head of the Low Pay Commission, Professor George Bain, has said that he believes that jobs will be lost, but wonders whether it is
rather a good thing that those jobs will be lost. It is all very well for him, in his ivory tower, unconcerned by the impact on him--for there will be none--to say that other people's jobs can safely be destroyed; he will not bear the burden and he will not pick up the bill.
In May 1996, under the previous Government, the Department of Trade and Industry published an estimate of 1 million job losses on the strength of the half restoration of differentials. Curiously, the President of the Board of Trade has been struck down by silence. Very rarely is she reticent--on this occasion she has been. The Department of Trade and Industry has had since 1 May to issue its own prognosis of the effect of a national minimum wage, but it has studiously avoided doing so. If the right hon. Lady disagrees with our prediction, we would be fascinated to hear hers.
The truth is that a national minimum wage will not create jobs, but destroy them. It will not improve competitiveness, but erode it. It will not strengthen our economy, but weaken it. Why do not the Government say what they think the effect will be upon jobs? Is it again a case of, "Can't say, won't say"? Of one fact we are certain; British industry and commerce will have to pay for the ideological folly of this Administration.
Mr. David Borrow (South Ribble):
Is the hon. Gentleman aware that, at its most recent conference, the Federation of Small Businesses voted in favour of a sensibly negotiated minimum wage? Is the hon. Gentleman also aware, as I am from speaking to small businesses, that many would welcome a minimum wage because that would stop their being undercut by rogue firms that seek to pay poverty wages? Those small firms want to employ well-trained work forces and pay them a decent wage.
Mr. Bercow:
I am sorry to say that the hon. Gentleman would not secure a post as a researcher in this place because his research is deficient. The simple fact is that the Federation of Small Businesses is opposed to a statutory minimum wage. If the hon. Gentleman is not aware of that important fact, frankly it is high time that he became so.
I should like to move on from the subject of the national minimum wage about which one can tell that Labour Members are deeply embarrassed--witness the departure from the Chamber of the Minister of State. [Interruption.] I am happy to see that he has returned.
I should like now to focus on the subject of the European employment chapter. Under that chapter, we shall move in the direction of a common European employment policy. We are now told under that chapter that it is a matter of common concern which employment policies member states in the European Union pursue. It is said that they must respect that fact in the formulation of policies.
Qualified majority voting will lead to the production of guidelines for employment policies to be pursued by member states. In case the President of the Board of Trade is in any doubt about the potency of that arrangement, she ought to be aware that we are told that those guidelines shall direct employment policy. Note the use of the word "shall", not "might", "could", "would" or
"should". The great and the good, the motley collection of the European Parliament, the Economic and Monetary Affairs and Industrial Policy Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the Employment and Social Affairs Committee will favour us with their wisdom on the policies to be pursued throughout the Community.
If the right hon. Lady is so naive as to suppose that for ever and a day those will be entirely matters of voluntary persuasion by the European Union, frankly she needs to think again. She must recognise that over the years the tendency of the Community has been to pursue policies initially by an attempt at persuasion and, ultimately, by a resort to coercion. That is the track record. If the President of the Board of Trade thinks that different principles will apply in this case, she ought to explain what they are and why the situation will not be a re-run of past disasters and betrayals.
Mr. Wilkinson:
My hon. Friend is making a cogent case about the dangers of the employment chapter to which the Government have signed up by virtue of the Amsterdam treaty. Would he care to turn his attention even wider, to the question of structural funds? Is it not the case that far from securing influence in the councils of the European Union, Her Majesty's Government are likely to lose grade 1 status for the highlands and islands of Scotland and for Northern Ireland as recipients of structural funds? Furthermore, while we are being disadvantaged, more and more British taxpayers' money is being dispersed to other parts of the European Union. In other words, their employment is being aided whereas ours is being gravely disadvantaged.
Mr. Bercow:
My hon. Friend is entirely correct. What is more, that trend will be exacerbated if the policies of this Administration are pursued. If we go into a single European currency and if, as a consequence of so doing, unemployment in parts of Europe increases, so will our contribution to the cohesion funds. We will not be the beneficiaries of those increased payments. Transfer payments to other member states in the European Union will be enormous, and the British taxpayer will pick up the bill.
Dr. Alan Whitehead (Southampton, Test):
Could the hon. Gentleman possibly remind us who signed the Single European Act and what consequences it had for the British economy? Were there any provisions in it for the regulation of employment in Europe?
Mr. Bercow:
Unfortunately the hon. Gentleman is getting rather confused about different treaties. He is entirely correct that the Conservative Administration signed the Single European Act. Its principal provisions, as I would have hoped the hon. Gentleman is conscious, were to do with completion of the single market. For that purpose, we accepted some qualified majority voting. The employment chapter to which I am referring is a feature of the treaty of Amsterdam. If the hon. Gentleman is able to propel his mind forward 11 years, that would greatly aid our debate.
Mr. Bercow:
I shall not give way to the hon. Gentleman again, for the simple reason that I know that other hon. Members wish to speak in the debate, and I am about to make my final point about the strikers' charter.
There is a pernicious provision that the Government are about to set in train of which the country should be aware and which all right-minded people should condemn: the provision for the recognition of trade unions. What is intended by the Government will be deeply damaging to British business. They say in their proposals that 50 per cent. of the relevant work force, although that is not defined, will suffice for the recognition of trade unions and their entitlement to be granted the status of official bargaining agents on behalf of the work force. That can spread like a contagion right across British industry and commerce.
I do not suggest that it is the intention to return to the dark days of the winter of discontent of the late 1970s, but that could be the outcome. We could return to those grim days, when the streets went unswept, the sick went untended and the dead went unburied. [Interruption.] It is all very well for uninformed right hon. and hon. Members on the Labour Benches to sneer. Their responsibility is to provide a foolproof guarantee that that will not be the outcome of the legislation that the President of the Board of Trade is to introduce to the House. Unless and until they are able to provide that categorical assurance, a policy of silence, not sneering, would be more appropriate.
Mr. Borrow:
Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Bercow:
I shall not give way as I am coming to a conclusion--I am sure the hon. Gentleman will be greatly reassured by that.
What the Government have in mind is greater trade union power--power that did not exist even in the days when Michael Foot was Employment Secretary. As a result, we are faced with an enormous threat of industrial unrest. If that is what the Government intend, they should admit it; if they do not wish it, they have a responsibility to take steps to avert it.
Mr. George Stevenson (Stoke-on-Trent, South):
This is an extremely important debate. Anyone who has listened to the Opposition contributions, especially to that of the right hon. Member for Wokingham (Mr. Redwood), will have been left with the clear impression that the Conservatives are seeking to rerun the past. Listening to their contributions so far, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the only arguments that they have advanced are the stale, old ones that we heard during the election campaign, which the Conservatives lost.
The Conservatives lost the election for many reasons, but one of them was because business lost confidence in them owing to the actions that they took during their 18 years in power. Unless the contributions from Conservative Members improve during the rest of the debate, I do not expect that they will regain that confidence.
It was a pity that of the 45 minutes or so that the right hon. Member for Wokingham spoke, 30 minutes was spent on a personal diatribe. We heard such earth- shattering revelations as the fact that he was worried about
why my right hon. Friend the President of the Board of Trade had not agreed to support the Ford motor company, when that company had not even asked for any such support. The other earth-shattering revelation that seemed, for 30 minutes, to form the basis of the right hon. Gentleman's speech involved him wondering why my right hon. Friend the President of the Board of Trade had spent some of her holiday in her caravan. The businesses in my constituency are not worried about that and I suspect that they will not be impressed by what we have heard from the Conservative Benches.
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