Select Committee on Culture, Media and Sport Minutes of Evidence

APPENDIX 17

Memorandum submitted by the Scottish Tourist Board

The Impact of the Millennium Celebrations on Tourism in Scotland

INTRODUCTION

1. The Scottish Tourist Board (STB) welcomes the opportunity to contribute written evidence to the Committee's inquiry into the impact of the Millennium celebrations on tourism in Scotland. As the lead body for tourism in Scotland STB has a keen interest in celebrations planned for the Millennium and how these will affect visitor numbers, spend and geographical and seasonal dispersal. STB is represented on the Scottish Millennium Forum which oversees and provides guidance to the various organisations in Scotland involved in the preparation of Scottish celebrations.

MILLENNIUM CELEBRATIONSA

2. STB has been gathering information on planned Millennium celebrations in Scotland since early 1997. Events organisers, uncertain about future budgets, are on the whole unwilling to give details of planned events this far in advance. To persuade them to do so, and to raise awareness of Millennium issues STB produces a Millennium Newsletter for Area Tourist Boards (ATBs), Local Enterprise Companies and Local Authorities. Appeals for information about Millennium events have been made through this newsletter, delegate packs at New Millennium Experience Company (NMEC) roadshows in Scotland and direct to Area Tourist Boards.

3. Despite these efforts STB has so far only received information about twelve events during 2000. Only six of these can be said to be especially for the Millennium, these are the British Art Show in Edinburgh, Christian Architecture in Scotland, the Heaven and Hell exhibition in Edinburgh, the opening of the Fife Cycleway, the Thrie Estaites (a play) in Fife and the Gordon Gathering in NE Scotland. The other six include events like the Open Golf at St Andrews and the World Corporate Games in Aberdeen. Dates are not finalised for most of these events and it is difficult to predict whether they will address the issue of seasonality.

4. In Scotland the Millennium Festival Committee, consisting of representatives of the Lottery distributing bodies operating in Scotland and NMEC, has a fund of £10.4 million which will support events taking place in 2000 which celebrate the Millennium. Whilst STB is encouraged by the aim of the Millennium Festival Committee of ensuring a good geographical spread of events, the other criteria by which funding for them are judged are quite rightly designed to stimulate events of direct benefit to the community and this may not produce the type of large scale events which attract new visitors.

5. On current evidence STB remains to be convinced that Millennium Festival events in 2000 will attract large numbers of additional visitors to Scotland. However Hogmanay celebrations are by tradition well established in Scotland, and those celebrating Hogmanay 1999 will be on a larger scale than ever before.

6. The only Hogmanay 1999 celebrations which STB has received definite information about are those taking place in Edinburgh and Inverness. Edinburgh appears to be leading the way with plans not only for the world's biggest New Year's Eve Party, but also a year long programme of events running from the 1999 Edinburgh Festival through to the summer of 2000. But it seems very likely that there will be a large number of Hogmanay celebrations taking place across Scotland. Planning for these events is at an early stage and organisers are currently unable to supply detailed information.

7. In Scotland, there are a number of large scale capital projects funded by the Millennium Commission which have visitor appeal for example; the Fife Cycleway, the Dynamic Earth centre in Edinburgh and the Big Idea visitor attraction in Ayrshire. Most, if not all, of these projects will hold events during 2000 to celebrate the Millennium. As yet no specific details of these events are available.

MILLENNIUM ENQUIRIES

8. STB's Central Information Department (CID) estimates that since early 1996 they have received around 10,000 accommodation and information requests for the Hogmanay 1999 period (castles are the most popular accommodation option requested). During January 1998 calls to CID from people requesting information about castle accommodation in Scotland over Hogmanay 1999 were 50% up on the usual level of requests for Hogmanay accommodation.

9. CID produces a Millennium factsheet detailing what is happening in Scotland in 2000 and some 232 of these information sheets have been sent out in the last 3 months. Most of these requests have been for Hogmanay 1999 information.

10. Edinburgh and the Lothians Tourist Board (ELTB) in particular has reported a significant increase in people requesting information about the Millennium and especially Hogmanay 1999. STB does not yet have evidence to suggest that any of the other ATBs are experiencing significant increases in inquiries from people keen to visit in 2000.

11. Evidence suggests that people are leaving it later and later to book their holidays. Short break holidays (the most important UK market for Scotland) tend to be booked latest of all. It seems likely therefore that interest in Hogmanay 1999 and the rest of 2000 will increase dramatically in the latter part of 1999.

OTHER EVIDENCE

12. Anecdotal evidence indicates that hotel room rates for Hogmanay 1999 are very high, suggesting that the hotels are anticipating very high levels of demand for this period although some 10% of all hotels may close. Given the above usual levels of interest this is not surprising. The available evidence does not give a similar picture for the rest of 2000.

13. STB is not aware of any packages to Scotland for the Millennium being developed or promoted by tour operators. There has been some suggestion that operators are finding it difficult to set up packages because of the lack of information about what will be happening.

STB MARKETING PLANS

14. Specific Millennium marketing campaigns are not considered to be the most effective means of appealing to STB's target markets, both within the UK and Overseas. For this reason, and given current budgetary constraints STB's UK and Overseas marketing divisions are not planning specific Millennium campaigns. Any Millennium marketing will be incorporated into parts of the existing campaigns.

15. Plans for an STB Millennium "Homecoming" PR campaign focusing on the visiting friends and relatives market and unifying the Scottish tourism industry behind a common Millennium Campaign are dependent on gaining funding support from an as yet unconfirmed second round of "Sector Challenge" programmes.

16. STB's Website will have pages devoted to the Millennium and a link into the British Tourist Authority's Website, which will also have a large section on the Millennium with information about events, attractions and news.

AREA TOURIST BOARD MARKETING PLANS

17. Few of the ATBs marketing plans are specifically linked to Millennium celebrations. Most are currently working on their 1999/2000 brochure. Uncertainty about future budget levels make it difficult for them to plan any further ahead and a lack of confirmed information about events makes it very difficult to produce marketing campaigns and brochures based on the Millennium.

18. Despite these problems the following events or campaigns are being planned; Orkney Tourist Board have organised a "Homecoming" event which will see a possible 1000 additional Canadians with Orkney links coming to Orkney in June, ELTB will no doubt be capitalising on their established Hogmanay celebrations and the planned year long programme of events surrounding it to promote the area to visitors. Other ATBs appear to be waiting until they have more information about Millennium events before they start to plan any campaigns.

COMPETITION

19. There will be a number of destinations and events competing at the UK and International levels for year 2000 visitors:

• The Greenwich Dome anticipates 12 million visitors
• The Hanover Expo in Germany is expecting 20 million visits in 5 months during 2000
• France is putting a lot of effort into its own Millennium celebrations
• The Holy See expects 30 million pilgrims
• in Australia, the Olympic Games will clearly be the main event
• and many countries will be stating their own programme of events, activities and celebrations to mark the Millennium.

20. The ETB/BTA report on the impact of the Dome suggests that it will only take a small percentage of business away from existing visitor attractions in London and the South East. 64% of respondents to ETB/BTA survey outside the London/SE area thought the Dome would have no effect on their market. STB also reckons that the Dome will have little effect—positive or negative—on tourism in Scotland.

21. The Sydney Games will, for reasons of kith and kin, perhaps attract additional visits from Europe, which will reduce the pool of available visitors for Britain—both domestic and international.

22. While most of the above events will be aimed at the domestic rather than an international audience it does mean that many people will have taken part in such activities in their own country and the UK Millennium experience in general and Scottish Millennium events in particular may have less drawing power than expected.

ANTICIPATED VISITOR NUMBERS

23. This section is split into two sections, the first dealing with the anticipated impact of celebrations surrounding Hogmanay 1999 and the second dealing with Millennium celebrations throughout the rest of the year.

HOGMANAY 1999

24. Scotland has always been a popular place to celebrate New Year's Eve or Hogmanay. Some towns and cities are now capitalising on this popularity by developing Hogmanay events that attract more visitors at this time of year.

25. Edinburgh has an established Hogmanay celebration which attracts many thousands of visitors every year. In Edinburgh, Hogmanay visitors in previous years already fill city accommodation to overflowing. Judging by inquiries to STB and ELTB at least some parts of Scotland will be very busy during Hogmanay 1999, a lot of accommodation providers are reporting they are full already, and it is possible that some potential visitors are being put off travelling to Scotland.

26. With this level of interest Hogmanay 1999 provides an opportunity to spread visitors to more remote parts of Scotland. There is also an opportunity to establish Scotland as the place to come for New Year and to promote Scotland at other times of the year to those visitors who come for Hogmanay 1999.

27. It is therefore felt that Hogmanay 1999 will not have a major impact on tourism in areas that are already busy at Hogmanay but that there may be an increase in visitors to more remote parts of Scotland—the Highlands and Islands for example.

REST OF YEAR

28. The lack of concrete details about planned events during 2000 makes it difficult to estimate the impact of Millennium celebrations. STB appears to be the only tourism agency in Scotland currently receiving inquiries relating to Year 2000 and these are coming at a slow, if growing, rate. At present there is no evidence to suggest that there will be any significant increase in visitors to Scotland during this time.

CONCLUSION

29. Some ATBs feel that during Hogmanay 1999 more visitors will want to visit than there is capacity for, but they do not anticipate major increases in visitor numbers during the rest of the year.

30. Awareness of Scotland as a holiday destination will be raised as a result of television pictures of the Hogmanay 1999 celebrations being shown world wide. This should impact on future visitor numbers from overseas and the UK but the scale of this impact is difficult to estimate.

31. STB, and other agencies, are finding it very hard to obtain definite information about Millennium celebrations in Scotland. Clearly if the extent of Millennium celebrations is not known then it is difficult to predict what the impact of these celebrations will be.

32. New Millennium capital projects should help trigger visits from those already interested in the destination and help to increase their length of stay. Although it is felt that they are unlikely to generate much additional business on their own the greater number of things for people to do may also mean that trips abroad or to the rest of the UK by Scottish residents will be replaced to some extent by local visits to see the new attractions. Both these consequences would have an effect upon Scotland's balance of payments with respect to tourism.

June 1998

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Prepared 12 August 1998