Examination of Witnesses (Questions 20
- 39)
TUESDAY 2 JUNE 1998
PROFESSOR ROBERT
BLACKBURN AND
DR DAVID
BUTLER
Chairman
20. Given that a significant proportion of our
population do not vote, and I am thinking of the South Hylton
ward in my constituency where the turnout was 11.6 per cent last
month, how would one enforce against the other 88 per cent?
(Dr Butler) If there was a fine, and it was well publicised,
it would jump up but it would still be unpleasant. In Australia
there is a $15 fine, I think, but surprisingly few people are
fined. There is an absolute obligation on the Electoral Commission
to summon anybody who does not record a vote and demand an explanation.
Mr Linton
21. In local elections as well?
(Dr Butler) It varies on local and state elections.
Compulsory voting is not universal. There have been people, particularly
in the Liberal Party in Australia, saying they want to abolish
compulsory voting because they think they would do rather better,
the quality of compulsory voting, they think, is getting the unlettered
to vote who would not otherwise bother. In fact, public opinion
is in favour of it. It has been an Australian tradition and there
is no likelihood of it being abandoned there.
(Professor Blackburn) I do not think there should
be any draconian enforcement of a compulsory voting requirement
if it was introduced. If that came about I think it would show
that the system was failing and probably should be withdrawn again.
This is a reform that should be introduced by consent and with
popular backing and it would just be one more mechanism for persuading
people to vote.
Chairman
22. If it is not enforced it is not compulsory
or credible.
(Professor Blackburn) There are very little enforcement
problems with compulsorily registering one's vote by comparison.
You do not hear of any draconian enforcement or problems relating
to that. I think the requirement to actually fill in the form
and actually indicate who you vote for or whether you do not want
to vote at all is not any more draconian or awful than having
to register one's vote in the first place. We all fill in numerous
other official forms.
23. Where there is the habit of a 96 and 97
per cent turnout, enforcing against the three or four per cent
is not a problem, but where there is the habit of a turnout even
in General Elections in my area now in the 50 per cents, how do
you enforce against the other 40-odd per cent?
(Dr Butler) Frankly I do not think that compulsory
voting is on. There are different kinds of inducements. I think
I am right in saying this. The interesting thing is the two countries
in Europe which have 90 per cent turnouts are Belgium and Italy
and in each case they actually have a registration card. They
have identity cards and they get stamped and there is a sort of
civic bonus for having your card stamped. So there is a kind of
incentive to vote in that way.
24. Might it be more in keeping with the spirit
of the age if we inserted some sort of modest financial incentive
for voting, for example a differential on Council Tax, say £15
or £20, between those who voted and those who chose not to?
It would not cost anything because you would balance it out.
(Dr Butler) I have no expert view to offer on that.
Mr Winnick: That would penalise, would it not,
those who have religious objections?
Chairman
25. I would like to get an answer to that first
of all. There is not a lot of religion in voting as far as I can
tell.
(Professor Blackburn) I would have to think about
it. It seems a bit odd at first sight. I think the main way forward
in facilitating compulsory voting is simply to persuade people
to vote. It is a good thing to vote. I think overwhelmingly people
believe that they are under some moral or social sense of obligation
to participate in casting one's vote. And to make it easier for
them to vote, we should possibly explore further ways of postal
voting for those people who find it inconvenient because of their
work or for other reasons. Making it easier to vote would be a
great help.
26. Neither of you are aware of any system where
incentives are offered?
(Dr Butler) I believe, but I am not an expert on this,
that de facto it is very sensible to vote in Italy. I do
not think people are sent to prison or fined but there is this
stamping of the card and it does have some advantage. I am afraid
one would have to get professional advice on that.
Mr Winnick
27. But it is interesting, is it not, that where
there is compulsory voting that does exist, although that is not
the right term for it as I have said previously, the number of
people who say "no" for no other reason than they simply
do not want to vote is very few indeed?
(Dr Butler) Yes.
28. Why should we believe we should be any different
in Britain, if indeed this came about?
(Dr Butler) You get quite a lot of civil libertarian
objections to this. The right not to vote is a perfectly reasonable
thing.
29. But we are giving them the right not to
vote by abstaining.
(Dr Butler) I know people who do this and in Australia
you get quite regular academic articles of protest against compulsory
voting on quite sophisticated arguments, political theory arguments.
I am with Robert here, you have got to make voting easy, you have
got to encourage people. I just cannot believe that this country
is ready for an extra nanny-state "you have got to vote"
sort of thing, it would be seen as one more sinister thing this
current Government is doing to intimidate the British public or
subvert the whole system against one particular party.
30. But that is not your view, is it, Professor
Blackburn? That is not your view about making people vote as such
but having to register an abstention. Your memorandum seems to
give a different impression.
(Professor Blackburn) Views and interpretations of
civil liberties vary over a period of time. We are living in a
completely different age from one hundred years ago and people
then no doubt would have thought we were living in a pretty totalitarian
regime today. We are subjected to so many forms of control and
legal requirements these days that I think being asked to fill
in a voting ballot paper is really no longer an intrusion into
one's civil liberty in the same way that it might have been perceived
some time ago. Whilst I can see that there could still be an objection
on individual freedom grounds, if it could be shown that public
opinion has shifted on this and there is popular support for compulsory
voting I personally would favour it. I would not want to introduce
it if the majority of people were against it but if there was
a clear majority in favour my perception is that people would
not object to being asked to fill out this form and if it includes
a box permitting an abstention, you can fill that in. I cannot
really see any logical objection to that. Can I add one point,
Chairman, which is if you would like me to undertake some research
into whether incentives do exist in compulsory voting systems
elsewhere then if you ask the Clerk to contact me I will be very
happy to carry out that research for you.
Mr Winnick: Thank you very much.
Chairman: Thank you.
Ms Hughes
31. I have two questions, one of which we have
touched on. It was to do with what further analysis there has
been of the extent to which turnout varies between different groups
in the population, different geographical areas, gender and ethnic
groups. You have touched on some of those issues, although I think
most of the evidence I have seen come through to the Committee
has not really given us any degree of sophisticated analysis about
those kinds of issues, nor whether such an analysis would lead
to any consideration of efforts to target methods of trying to
increase turnout where in fact it is lowest. I wonder if you have
anything further to add on those points?
(Dr Butler) I was at a conference two weeks ago at
which there was a paper. I cannot remember exactly who did all
the papers. One was Ivor Crewe, Vice-Chancellor of Essex University,
and certainly Tony Heath and others in the British Electoral Survey,
which is largely based in Nuffield College, have done papers.
There is a body of work that could be sent to you tomorrow if
you contact them but I do not have any figures in my head to offer
you.
32. Could we try and get some of that evidence
and perhaps consider one of those people coming along. The second
question is the difference in turnout between General and local
elections. Some of the turnouts in some areas at the last local
election, in the region where I live, were as low as ten or 11
per cent. I wonder whether there are any other factors on top
of those that we have discussed generally in terms of General
Elections that might be germane there? What about the question
whether in the debate about the local elections there should be
annual elections or four yearly elections? There might be a number
of arguments in that debate but is one around whether annual elections
simply bore people and you are going to get a higher turnout for
local elections if they are four yearly? What about the role of
the media in terms of General Elections and local elections? Is
there anything that could be done in relation to media coverage
to improve turnout at local elections?
(Dr Butler) Turnout at local elections has been very
fully studied by Rallings & Thrasher at the University of
Plymouth. They produced an admirable book last November called
Global Elections in which they had a chapter which gives
you very good statistics over time. They are very lively and intelligent
people who it would be worth talking to. They know about it. There
have been loads of little studies of local elections, and obviously
you have touched on the central point. There is virtually no prior
coverage of the local elections. If you looked at the papers for
the last week of April of this year you would find virtually nothing
whereas if you looked at the papers for the last week of April
last year you would find three or four political stories on the
front page of every broadsheet paper and it was topping the news
right the way through. The General Election is obviously of a
totally different order of magnitude of coverage and that is the
main reason why there is that difference. An exciting hotly fought
bi-election very seldom gets to within ten per cent of the turnout
that the same constituency has in a General Election when there
is much less focus on that particular seat.
Chairman
33. I just want to press Professor Blackburn
on this business of compulsory turnout. I still do not understand
how you can hope credibly to enforce compulsory voting.
(Professor Blackburn) If it is introduced it should
be introduced by consent and have cross-party support. That may
be too much to hope for but it would be desirable to try and achieve
it. I think you would want to have some indication of the level
of popular support for it or not and those, perhaps like myself
and others who think it is a good idea in principle, should seek
to persuade others of the virtues of creating a legal responsibility
to vote. The end result we are looking for is a much higher turnout
and therefore an expression of democratic will or national opinion
about who should be governing the country. I certainly do not
think there should be draconian enforcement of this, but I do
not think there would be.
34. What kind of enforcement do you envisage?
(Professor Blackburn) I would have thought a nominal
fine.
35. I come back to the South Hylton ward in
my constituency, a nominal fine against 88.4 per cent of the people
who did not vote, how would you enforce it?
(Professor Blackburn) I think a decision would have
to be made ideally by an Electoral Commission as to whether and,
if so, when and how it wanted to get heavy about it.
Chairman
36. If it did not choose to enforce it then
it is not compulsory.
(Professor Blackburn) It does seem to be the case
that if you enshrine principles in law people are much more likely
to respect them. One would seek to encourage people to comply
with their obligation to return the form like they return their
tax returns, like they return their voting registration forms,
like they return numerous other official forms. This seems a very
innocuous one and I cannot think of anyone feeling terribly deeply
about it: "I absolutely refuse to return this form".
I can think of many other forms that they would much rather not
return. One would seek to persuade people that this is a good
thing to do and try and encourage them and make it easier for
them to return their ballot paper.
Mr Winnick: Is there not a difference between
local and General Elections and it may well be that what would
be appropriate in a General Election would certainly not be appropriate
in a local election? Why should we work on the assumption that
people in this country are less law abiding when it comes to such
matters than Australians? Is there any reason to believe that?
Chairman
37. I think if you could start with Mr Winnick's
first question. Are you suggesting compulsory voting for local
as well as General Elections?
(Professor Blackburn) It seems to me that it would
be a good idea to start with General Elections. I agree that compulsory
voting where you have a much lower electoral turnout in the first
place as is common in local elections could be problematic. I
would be inclined to test the water over a period of years in
General Elections assuming there is political and popular support
for this measure. But I perceive there is growing support for
this now as indicated by that opinion poll that I referred to.
Mr Winnick
38. My second point: why should we work on the
assumption that in such matters we are less law abiding than the
Australians?
(Professor Blackburn) I do not think we are. We are
probably more law abiding. There are always problems in drawing
comparisons with other countries. Australia is a huge place and
there are different political and social traditions there. I think
compulsory voting would actually work better here than in Australia.
Chairman: Now the current level of accuracy
of the register. Mr Singh?
Mr Singh
39. Dr Butler, your evidence suggested that
the accuracy of the register fell significantly in the post-war
decades but improvements have occurred during the 1990s. Is that
correct and, if so, why?
(Dr Butler) There is thought to be greater mobility
of the population. Again I think I should refer you to the electoral
administrators who will talk to you about this. There are these
specific studies done by the Central Statistical Service linking
the register to the census and finding out where the register
was better or worse. There is a great variation between best practice
in different local authorities. Some do a much better job than
others, some do more canvassing. It has been a very good thing
that twelve years ago the Association of Electoral Administrators
was actually founded. I went to its inaugural thing in Torquay
about 12 years ago. They have now got going and they are steadily
raising their standards, comparing notes with each other, supplying
a very valuable force of people who go overseas as missionaries,
as election watchers or election administrators in new democracies,
in Africa and elsewhere. There is a lot of evidence on the registration
question being assembled. There is some specific work being done
at this moment at Nuffield College. My old friend, Michael Pinto-Duschinsky,
has been collecting data on this. I do not think I want to go
into any detail because I have not worked in it, I am just aware
that you are moving into a territory where there is a lot of hard
evidence that your poor Clerk could doubtless collect.
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