APPENDIX 9
Employment and Earnings of Milwaukee County Single
Parent AFDC Families: Establishing Benchmarks for Measuring Employment
Outcomes Under "W-2" by John Pawasarat, Employment and
Training Institute, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report tracks the earnings and employment experience
for all 25,125 single parents receiving AFDC in Milwaukee County
in December 1995 who are expected to work under the "W-2"
new state welfare initiative. The Wisconsin Department of Workforce
Development (DWD) matched all quarterly wages paid from January
1996 through March 1997 by Wisconsin employers with the AFDC population
in Milwaukee County. The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Employment
and Training Institute then analyzed employment patterns, jobs
held and earnings for each single parent in the study population.
Additionally, the AFDC and public assistance status of each AFDC
case was examined for December 1995, September 1996 and December
1996.
State DWD employer records showed employment and earnings
for 18,126 of the 25,125 parents at some time from January 1996
through March 1997. In all 42,120 jobs were held by employed parents
during the five quarters examined. Earnings were tracked for all
single parents remaining on AFDC and also for parents leaving
AFDC. These employment outcomes offer a first look at the experience
of AFDC recipients and provide baseline data on the characteristics
of the AFDC population leaving public assistance prior to implementation
of "W-2". The study introduces a methodology for providing
timely data on "W-2" outcomes using measures of employment
and earnings.
MEASURING THE
OUTCOMES OF
WELFARE REFORM
Evaluations of welfare reform experiments are typically released
four or more years after initiatives begin. Program operators
and policy makers need more timely information to assess program
performance and to improve services. This report provides a model
for measuring outcomes using State of Wisconsin DWD wage data
currently available. Under this model, quarterly outcome reports
could be provided in an inexpensive and timely manner utilizing
existing institutional data. The following analyses related casehead
earnings to levels of employment success.
A. Employment Earnings of Cases Leaving AFDC in September 1996
- A total of 7,502 single parent cases receiving AFDC
in December 1995 were no longer on AFDC in September 1996. In
order to measure the status of single parents leaving AFDC for
W-2, the earnings of these parents were related to five levels
of employment related outcomes. Only 16 per cent of single parents
leaving AFDC showed earnings above the poverty level while 34
per cent showed no earnings in Fourth Quarter (October-December)
1996.
Earnings of Cases Off AFDC in September 1996
Single parents off AFDC in September 1996 showed the following
employment earnings in Fourth Quarter (October-December) 1996:
| Level 1: | 6.6 per cent (493 single parents) had quarterly earnings at or above $5,000 in Fourth Quarter 1996. Most of these parents continued to earn wages above the poverty level for a family of four ($4,000 or above) in First Quarter 1997.
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| Level 2: | 9.6 per cent (721 single parents) had total earnings of $4,000-$4,999 in Fourth Quarter 1996. Less than half of these parents continued to have earnings above the poverty level (at least $4,000) in First Quarter 1997.
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| Level 3: | 22.2 per cent (1,664 single parents) had Fourth Quarter 1996 earnings from $2,500 (at least full-time employment at minimum wage) to $3,999. Two-thirds of these parents continued to work at the full-time minimum wage level or above in First Quarter 1997 but few (186) showed earnings above the poverty level.
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| Level 4: | 27.3 per cent (2,050 single parents) had total earnings between $1-$2,499 in Fourth Quarter 1996. A fourth of these cases returned to AFDC by December 1996 and only 308 of these parents worked at the full-time minimum wage level or above in First Quarter 1997.
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| Level 5: | 34.3 per cent (2,574 single parents) had no earnings in Fourth Quarter 1996. Although most of these cases remained off AFDC in December 1996, only 322 of these parents had any earnings in First Quarter 1997.
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B. December 1996 Public Assistance Status of Cases Off AFDC
in September 1996
- Fifteen per cent (1,153 cases) of the 7,502 cases
that left AFDC in September 1996 had returned to AFDC by December
1996. Another 20 per cent were in Food Stamps but not AFDC, and
20 per cent more remained on medical assistance only. In total,
55 per cent remained on some form of public assistance in December
1996.
Public Assistance Status of Cases Off AFDC in September 1996
- Most single parents who were off AFDC in September
but returned to AFDC by December 1996 had less than 12 years of
schooling, no work history during the 15 month period (from January
1996 through March 1997), or no earnings above $1,250 in any quarter
of the study period.
C. Continuing Economic Well-Being of Families Leaving AFDC
Measures were developed to determine continuing economic
well-being of single parent families, using sustained employment
and case status off AFDC. Six subsequent months of employment
data (October 1996 through March 1997) were examined for the 7,502
cases off AFDC in September 1996.
- While 26 per cent of the cases off AFDC in September
1996 showed Fourth Quarter 1996 earnings above the poverty level
($4,000), only 10 per cent of cases remained off AFDC in December
1996 and had sustained earnings above poverty ($4,000 or above)
in both Fourth Quarter 1996 and First Quarter 1997.
- While 48 per cent of the cases off AFDC in September
1996 showed full-time employment (i.e., at least $2,500 earnings)
in Fourth Quarter 1996, only 28 per cent remained off AFDC in
December 1996 and showed earnings of at least $2,500 in both
Fourth Quarter 1996 and First Quarter 1997.
D. Single Parents Who Left AFDC with No Earnings in Quarter
4 1996
A third (2,574) of the single parent cases who left AFDC
in September 1996 had no employment earnings during Fourth Quarter
(October-December) 1996. Most of these cases remained off AFDC
in December 1996; only 18 per cent returned to AFDC in December
and an additional 11 per cent received food stamps but no AFDC.
The 1,834 cases showing no earnings in Fourth Quarter 1996
and no AFDC or food stamps payments in December 1996 were examined
to identify their economic status and characteristics.
- 28 per cent of the 1,834 cases appeared to have
other sources of income. The most common sources of unearned income
were SSI for children (listed in 14 per cent of cases) and child
support (listed in 9 per cent of cases).
- While the movement of families out of state could
not be established, it appeared that out-migration could be a
factor for a portion of the 1,834 cases showing no Wisconsin earnings.
A much higher per cent of the 1,834 cases without earnings, AFDC
or food stamps were found to be recent in-migrants; 33 per cent
had moved to Milwaukee after 1991 (compared to 13 per cent of
the total population). The in-migrant population was also much
younger (38 per cent were under 25 years of age) and more likely
to have no recent work experience (68 per cent posted no earnings
in any of the five quarters).
November 1997
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