Select Committee on Social Security Minutes of Evidence


Examination of witnesses (Questions 80 - 99)

TUESDAY 21 APRIL 1998

RT HON FRANK FIELD, MP, MR JONATHAN TROSS and MR DAVID STANTON

  80.  Minister, you have talked about success measures and you have just explained why certain success measures can be misleading; there are technical, almost philosophical, problems about some of them but there must be an idea in the Department on the issue of poverty what would be a clear success measure. In the last Parliament, a Parliamentary Answer to me showed that a third of babies in Britain are born to families either drawing Income Support or Family Credit, so a third of babies if you like born into poverty. What proportion will it be at the next election?
  (Mr Field)  I have no idea what it will be and I would argue with you that you should not actually get over-concerned about that. A large group of people who are on Income Support will be single parents. The meaning of single parents has changed during my lifetime of campaigning against poverty and being in this House. When I first started area the meaning of single parents was clear, they were literally single parents, but that is not always the case now. Whether some people should be claiming benefit who have the status of being single parents is questionable. If I am right, then it gives less meaning to the importance that you are attaching to the number of babies who are born into households on benefit. I would much prefer us to look at, as the Health White Paper does, low birth weight babies. We know that birth weight is attached to income in an inverse proportion. They are born to mothers in social class I and II. But generally speaking the younger you are as a parent, and the poorer you are, the greater the chance you will have a low birth weight baby. With low birth weight go all the associated problems which are handicap and disadvantages in future life. So I would turn it back to you, Malcolm, and say I would have thought we should be much more concerned about the data we have on low birth weight than primarily concern ourselves with the number of babies born into households on benefit. One is a much truer record of what is actually happening at the bottom of our society than the other one is.

Chairman:  Can we turn to the question of fraud and abuse? Edward Leigh has some questions in that area.

Mr Leigh

  81.  Before I get on to that, can I ask one or two questions on pensions, but before even that can I ask one simple question? How, and in what specific areas, will your Green Paper reduce means testing?
  (Mr Field)  I thought you might ask me that question, Edward, knowing the nature of your character and how helpful you always are, giving me a chance to make a point I would want to make anyway. This is a document which is celebrating universality, and it gives the commitment any Government can give of its stewardship during a Parliament. For Governments to talk about future Parliaments is slightly pie-in-the-sky because, thank goodness, the electorate take over the reins at a certain stage and decide who is going to be the Government. For this Parliament we say the two benefits which most people use, the State Retirement Pension and Child Benefit, remain universal. We also make a commitment on disability living allowance. We have tried to take welfare out of the ghetto and take it back to its original meaning. To link it with well-being rather than just welfare—talking about education and health services which we wish to be of first-class quality and very largely provided in the public domain. This is a huge celebration of universality. What most commentators have missed—only Anatole Kaletsky in the Times spotted it—is that there is a great deal of talk about what this Government would be doing on education and health and whether the market principles, as with the previous Government, were going to be extended—there is a very clear statement in this document that we are not going down that route. So the answer is that it is a great celebration of universality, warning against the dangers of means testing but accepting, as I always do and I am happy to affirm now, that at any point in time we are concerned about the numbers on means testing but we are also committed in the short-run to helping the poorest pensioners. This is the first Government which has begun seriously to look at how it can locate the million pensioners who are eligible for Income Support and not claiming it and to work out ways which will increase take-up. You could say to me that as I am against means testing, "Should you not be against such a scheme". If I was a zealot you could, I suppose, think I would misuse my position in the Department to stop proposals going forward which are trying to get help to the poorest pensioners in the country, because that is the only way we can deliver help to them. At the end of the day we will have increased the numbers on means testing and you will be able to turn round to me and say, "Given what you said about means testing, is this not a sign of real failure". But I would be arguing that you need to look at the reform programme in the round, over the decades. Where it is appropriate to use means testing, such as we are doing now to help the poorest pensioners, that programme has my full support.

  82.  That is all very well, Frank, you said it is a great celebration of the universal principle, fair enough, and you said, "We are not going to means test pensions and Child Benefit", but the last Government were not doing that. So I do not quite see what huge progress you have made beyond what the last Government was already committed to.
  (Mr Field)  For the simple reason that whereas your Government was open to the charge, which it had to regularly refute, that it was going to means test State Retirement Pension and Child Benefit, this Government has made the clearest possible statement in the Green Paper that it is not going to do so.

  83.  Okay, we will move on to pensions. Chapter 4, page 35 of the Green Paper Cm 3805, reminds us at the top of the success of occupational pensions and the £800 billion invested, and the bottom of the page reminds us that at least 3.3 million pensioners receive help through Income Support, which is not a very satisfactory situation. How, specifically, for the present, and we will ask questions about the future in a moment, do your plans help these people?
  (Mr Field)  I do not think the figures there give a break-down. If you look at the take-up rate and the amount claimed on Income Support, Housing Benefit and the Council Tax Benefit, what you find is that the more generous the benefit is in giving help to individuals the higher the take-up rate is. The specific help we will be bringing to those figures is hopefully to increase them, because there are a million of the very poorest pensioners who do not claim Income Support. Some of them, we think, will be claiming Housing Benefit. Hence the pilots we have announced in which we will work with local authorities, looking at their Housing Benefit returns to see to what extent we can trace those who are probably eligible for Income Support as well. The best local authorities do actually tell people that it looks as though they are eligible for Income Support, if they claim, but leave it there. We all know what official letters look like, the way they are produced they are not the easiest things to read, and we do not know whether people take much notice of them. My gut feeling is that those who own their own homes are those who are least likely to be claiming means tested assistance, because it is almost impossible to survive if you are on the state pension and you have rent to pay. There are also those pensioners living in their children's households and the very old and very frail who live on a very, very reduced standard of living. We will find out about that. The specific answer to your question, which in a way does link in with the first question, is if we are successful the numbers you quote at the bottom will actually go up.

  84.  Over the page, page 37 of the Green Paper, you correctly say, "Personal pensions currently on offer can be a bad deal for people on low or intermittent pay" and you say, "In place of poor value private pensions, we will introduce low cost Stakeholder Pension schemes which will give low paid workers the chance to save for a decent private second pension." Maybe you are not in a position to say any more about that at this stage, but do you want to put any more flesh on the very simple bones of that statement? I have not found anything else in the Green Paper about it, but I may be wrong about that.
  (Mr Field)  The flesh I would want to put on it is really what you said in the House in the last debate we had on this. You yourself did not actually say what the proposals were, but you set out what the objectives were and the agreement we should seek to secure success in this area. So I would merely commend the speech you made to your colleagues. I am sure they have already read it, but some may not. I thought it was a very effective speech and there was nothing in it which I actually disagreed with.

  85.  That is a very diplomatic answer——
  (Mr Field)  It is a very truthful answer as well.

  86.  "Rooting out fraud", Chapter 9 of the Green Paper. You say on page 67 that you are setting up a group of experts from local government and the private sector who have been asked to help draw up a counter-fraud strategy. Can you tell us anything about their work, any results so far, when they will report or anything else?
  (Mr Field)  Yes, I can. Maybe I could leave with you, Chairman, the list of people who have been helping us?[3] To this Committee it will come as no surprise, for they are either the special advisers to the Committee, or they were people who gave evidence to the Committee, in the last Parliament. If I can just say a few words about that and answer Edward's question. What has happened is that once in office, we asked the Department itself to write a Green Paper, a policy document, on how we can counter fraud effectively. We also asked this group to draw up what they thought would be the right strategy. We are now at the stage where both reports and both of the groups are coming together on the next stage of our document. Again it quite important for this Committee to know the engine of welfare reform is now the Prime Minister's working party on welfare reform. Anything of importance goes to that committee. So this document, when it is actually completed, will go to that committee for approval. Jonathan, you are the person responsible inside the Department, do you want to say anything about the workings of the group?
  (Mr Tross)  Briefly to say we have, with ministers, been reviewing the fraud activity that we have been conducting. We wanted to look at whether the considerable resources which are now going in are best deployed, whether the balance between prevention and detection is right, whether we are making best use of the links between us and other local authorities. Some of the experiments we are trying to do at the moment are trying to increase the co-operation between us and local authorities on exchange of information and linkage of computer systems. What we will want to do is put together the experience from the considerable programmes of fraud initiatives we have been running for the last two or three years, relate that to the input from outside experts, and see if we can get something which looks more like a strategy starting from where the areas of vulnerability of risk are, to show we have a coherent programme of action which is visibly going to make an improvement in the next three or four years. That, as the Minister has said, is the task we will be taking forward under the direction of the Prime Minister's group.
  (Mr Field)  Can I just say that the role this Committee plays is very important? If one looks at the stewardship of the last Government on countering fraud, because of its over-emphasis on efficiency and cutting costs and its almost denial of what the Tory Party is usually rather good at, which is interpreting human nature, the earlier stage of its stewardship was not very good. This Committee played an important part in forging an all-party agreement on countering fraud. But it was not until Peter Lilley was Secretary of State that there was really somebody at the top of the Department who wished to respond to that debate and do so positively. So when we talk about moving the debate on, it is not to criticise the previous administration, because if you are beginning to try and build measures, control mechanisms, into the payment of benefit to counter fraud, and you have not been doing that for a decade or more, it is actually a very difficult task. So while we will be taking the programme forward, we are very anxious both to pay credit to the previous regime, or part of the previous regime under Peter Lilley, and the work he did and pioneered and to try and maintain the consensus this Committee created in the House of Commons. So ensuring fighting fraud is no longer a party issue, it is a serious business, to which all of us have a duty to address ourselves. One only has to look at the stories which have been in the press in the last few weeks about individuals—last week's about one individual with 48 separate identities and us trying to reclaim the capital he has amassed as a result of this, and at least over-drawing or wrongly drawing a third of a million pounds. One cannot be happy with the state of affairs. But to emphasise the change we want to make is not to take swipes at the previous regime. Because of the very nature of fraud we have to be always vigilant. Those who are quite good at it develop their own techniques in response to the counter-measures that we take. So it is a war which is not going to be won, but it is our duty continuously to wage that war.

  87.  I do not want to take swipes at this regime either, Frank, but it has to be said this chapter of the Green Paper, which I have read two or three times, is long on vague generalisations and short on specific proposals. For instance, you say in paragraph 7 on page 68, "The Government's strategy is to shift the emphasis away from detection towards preventing fraud from occurring in the first place." Something we would all agree with. Then later in paragraph 16 on page 69 you say, ".. the mechanisms affecting the most fraud-prone benefits can be revised to reduce the opportunities to commit fraud. In this way, we will move towards designing fraud out of the system." We can all agree with that but I still cannot quite understand what specific control mechanisms you can put in which will achieve these desirable objectives.
  (Mr Field)  Let me give you two examples. If we had wanted to be partisan in this document what we would have said, and it would have been a swipe at the previous regime, is that we are getting down to the process of drawing out seriously what are the risks associated with certain benefits and at what stage of claiming are those risks most prevalent. We did not wish to have that sort of swipe, so of course we have opened ourselves to the charge of vague generalisation because we did not think making a party point was the best way to advance the debate. We are in the process now of learning from the private sector and from one or two of the best local authorities on how we look at the whole question of risk management of this the biggest of all the Government budgets. The second area has been a central concern of this Committee and we denote it in the Green paper. Our worry about the security of the national insurance number system. Under the previous regime there were three surveys conducted. One was by the Benefits Agency itself on securing the gateways, where they looked at 4,500 national insurance numbers and found that 0.9 per cent of those numbers were attached to false identities. The second survey was about national insurance contributions and it found that 4.2 per cent of all contributions, while paid in, were not being and could not be attached to national insurance numbers, although the monies were in the accounts. Thirdly, the Data Cleansing Unit found that 7.9 per cent of numbers were duplicates or bogus numbers. If one takes what the adviser to the previous Select Committee gave us, that it is not unreasonable that each 0.1 per cent of misuse of numbers would in fact give a bill to taxpayers of £170 million of misused funds, and if we are optimistic that only 1 per cent of the numbers are being so misused, then we are talking about £1.7 billion. I did not think it appropriate to try and point the finger of blame at the previous regime, Edward, because the previous Secretary of State was trying to get up to speed on this. When you are trying to get up to speed you cannot do everything at once. There are both intellectual limitations but also staff limitations. We are building on what was there but not trying to swipe at the previous regime or, in the middle of our sentences, putting a "but" in.

Mr Gibb

  88.  Are you up to speed yet?
  (Mr Field)  No, we will not be up to speed. We are gaining speed and we will be wishing to report in the document, to the Prime Minister which will be published, about what we are trying to do about securing the gateways. The previous Committee looked at this. It is easy enough, once fraud is in the system, to reward people when they manage to root it out. It is much more difficult to devise a system, while continuing with that system, to try and put incentives into place so fraudulent claims do not enter it. It sounds easy enough to do but it is actually quite hard when you are trying to work out what the performance will be. The system will build on the previous Government's successes. We are trying in this area of countering benefit fraud to move to this more difficult second stage. That is how you reward people to prevent fraud entering into the system, when most rational people think you should be doing that anyway, but it has not been happening. That is not because people have wilfully done it, it is because most of us grew up in a world where we thought most people were honest and if there was fraud it was accidental and smallscale. This is the biggest budget the Government has, it is probably the biggest budget in the country, and it would be amazing if very talented, serious people were not making every effort to get their hands on a large part of it. When we have a bill, for example, for the poorest pensioners, where if as we hope we are successful in getting them to claim, it will add something like £1 billion to our budget, I have no doubt at all that taxpayers would prefer that £1 billion to be going to the poorest pensioners and not to people who are wrongly claiming benefit.

Chairman

  89.  I have two quick supplementaries on fraud. You rely heavily, from the Government's point of view, on the methodology and findings of benefit reviews, and the whole counter fraud strategy really is based on benefit reviews. We have been looking at the disability living allowance and there are some worries about the random sampling basis for the findings of these reviews, is the Government content that that is the best basis on which to man fraud investigations? We are also going to get some information from you on Child Benefit fraud work which the Committee is looking forward to getting.
  (Mr Field)  As the previous Committee asked for it, I hope by the summer you will have it. It is partly because of the criticisms you have made about how we have used the term "fraud" and how we might wish to use other phrases in some instances, that we are actually looking at that data again before we present it to you. I hope it will be with you in the summer. You have an inquiry going on DLA and the information you have is worrying. If one looks at the Advisory Board, the samples which Professor Grahame took show that on the evidence they had of the information on the forms, for a very large proportion of people who were gaining DLA you could not make a decision on the forms but a decision had been made. The other sample which was taken showed that there were clearly errors being made about whether in fact people should be getting benefit or not. You then have the data from the OPCS survey which suggests large numbers of people are not claiming who should be claiming. Although I would urge caution on that—but then you would say I would, wouldn't I. If Professor Grahame is finding, when he looks at the case papers from people who have filled in forms to claim and have gained benefit (and maybe probably should get benefit) but soley on the paperss he could not decide whether they should, it is clearly difficult to make that transition. You can see how difficult it is taking a sample of people who say that they have disabilities and then, without them providing detailed application forms, move from that, from the codes which you have for eligibility, to deem whether in fact they are eligible for benefit. So the whole process is fraught with problems. The view in our constituencies is that constituents tell us of people who should not be claiming but are and large numbers of other people who should be claiming but are not, and that is not a happy state of affairs.
  (Mr Tross)  I think the important thing is to start with systematic evaluations. We started in a world where there were lots of assertions, so the benefit review process has been important in starting to bring some systematic evaluation. As you go down that route, what you find is that things are more subtle and complicated. You dig around and you get distinctions between where someone has set out to defraud at the beginning, where someone has failed to report a circumstance—question mark, did they know well enough what they were expected to report—and so on. I think you ask further questions from it. You need to set it alongside the evidence that you get from the things we are now doing with more emphasis on verification of evidence, visiting at the front end. So you want to see the extent to which you can design fraud out of the system. I think what the reviews do is to start to give you a solid base for assessing where the risks are. What comes out of it is a series of things that you need to follow up, different actions depending on what can be quite different circumstances between different benefits and between things that happened initially and happen over time. I think the important thing is to start with the systematic evaluation.

Mr Pond

  90.  I just want to stick with the DLA issue for a moment. I have to confess I have jumped the gun even before receiving the letter suggesting there are problems in the constituency. Yesterday I met with disability groups in Gravesham. Each of them will have received a copy of that chapter in the Green Paper on disability benefits. When I explained to them what was there their minds were set very much at rest because there is concern that because of BIP, the Benefits Integrity Project, many people have lost their entitlement to benefit and then have been given it back. They have assumed these two processes are part of the same thing, the reform process means cuts. Could I urge caution in that context in terms of the DLA Advisory Board's own findings which you also refer to on page 55 of the Green Paper, because when we spoke to the Advisory Board they made it quite clear on close questioning that in fact the basis of their assertion that two-thirds of the payments did not match the facts was based on rather flimsy evidence, in fact it was a rather heroic statement on the basis of the evidence, and in fact in two-thirds of the cases they simply did not have the information to make a judgment one way or the other. That, therefore, implies that their statement in two-thirds of the cases there is insufficient evidence to support benefit claims is based on those remaining cases and relatively small samples. I would like you perhaps to go back and look at that again because it does cause great anxiety given that BIP initially, certainly in the minds of some of us, was seen as an anti-fraud measure to find that there are so few examples that have come out of BIP, as Baroness Hollis confirmed to us before Easter, and I think the whole environment of suggesting that many people on disability benefits are seeking benefits to which they are not entitled is making it very difficult for them to accept this process of reviewing their benefits. Could I ask you to look at that again?
  (Mr Field)  There are two points there, Chris. One I tried to emphasise in what I said that they came to the conclusion that they did not have the evidence on the papers before them. That did not mean to say that people were not eligible at the end of the day. Secondly, from my own constituency surgery I find that people get better and then say "it is appalling they have taken my DLA away and I have got better, this should be my reward", whereas the DLA was actually given both to help people with the extra costs but also in the hope that some people would actually become better. It is quite an important lesson. When Lloyd George was introducing the beginnings of the NHS and sickness benefit it was proposed that it was going to be a disability benefit and he changed the name because the whole point was for people wherever possible to get well. He thought it actually gave the wrong vibes to call it a disability benefit. He linked the two very closely together, that if you wanted people to get better then you had to have a proper health service, or the beginnings of one. You see there are the first moves in the Green Paper about how we work more closely with the Department of Health in preventing injuries becoming long-term disabilities and therefore the costs on lives and on the benefit bill as well. I only wish to underscore the caution that you urge, but also to add that nevertheless the reviews do show that there are, in some instances, considerable changes in circumstances which lead to people not being eligible for benefit, or at the same rate when the programme was carried out. That does not of course mean that in the first place they were committing fraud. Again, I have to add from my own constituency, and I do not know whether you have had the same experience, that some of the constituents feel that we as a Parliament, as a Government, have so failed to police the system properly. They know people with fewer disabilities than them getting DLA, they feel now the only way they can maintain equity is to get the benefit themselves and that there is no way publicly standards are going to be properly maintained. Part of the reform process is to maintain those standards and to restore public confidence. It is worrying when you get the argument at the surgery "well, it is unfair unless I get benefit too, I am in a worse position".

Mr Roy

  91.  Could I ask you to focus in on Part 2 of the Departmental Report, reading the report that in the section of the New Deal for under-25s that there is no compulsion and all the rest is voluntary, the initiatives. Can I ask you your thoughts on why you do not have a compulsion initiative, for example, on older unemployed people or on lone parents, say for example with children at high school? The third area I would like to look at is Part 2, paragraph 28 of the Departmental Report on the New Deal for disabled people. It has been announced that personal advisers will be a part of the 12 geographic areas, of which my area is going to be one of them. Those personal advisers will speak to people on Incapacity Benefit to get them off benefit and to get them to work. Will there be an element of compulsion in that?
  (Mr Field)  No, there will not be compulsion in that. Maybe in a moment Jonathan will come in on that. These pilots are important in themselves, important as a method whereby the Government tries out reform before it universalises that reform, but also very important as a prototype of our active modern service. Jonathan may wish to give a comment on that. The first question, Frank, was about compulsion and whether schemes were voluntary or not.

  92.  The older unemployed.
  (Mr Field)  I suppose there are really two parts to the answer here. One is if you are going to exercise compulsion you have actually got to have the means to enforce it. There is no point sounding off grandly in these terms if you have not got the resources to do that. Secondly, I think it is very important that we actually keep in line with public opinion. On the under-25s there is overwhelming support in the country that it is crucial for young people successfully to make a transition from school and education to work and that a lot of resources should be put into that and that there should not be an option of staying on benefit for those who refuse to participate in the range of options which are present. As Wirral, which covers my constituency, was one of the pilot prototypes for this I am getting feedback which suggests, quite rightly, the issue of compulsion is not a big one. It is helping to change the climate in which decisions are made. To think that we, as a Government, somehow want to publish tallies of the number of times we have actually imposed sanctions would be a sign of failure. As in any household or any community things work because you do not have to use sanctions. Occasionally you have to use them because there is nothing left to do. Although we have given emphasis to it to show in a sense there is a change of gear, it is really to change the atmosphere within which people approach claiming benefit. If Birkenhead is any experience, then the enthusiasm both of young people wishing to participate and employers trying to play a part in the scheme has even melted a cold old heart like mine. I am slightly cynical on some of these things.
  (Mr Tross)  Just very quickly, two points about these. One is an emphasis on the increasing use of pilots, experimentation, in this area. We are into behaviourial influence, how you interact. I think the sense of trying, testing and evaluating rather than assuming you have got a national model is important. The other is a very strong theme in the New Deal and elsewhere of trying to have active management of cases, encouraging people to look for opportunities, giving them more advice about their circumstances, trying to bring services together across some of the organisation and benefit boundaries that we have had. I think both the experimentation and active management have been quite strong themes of the work that I have been involved with.

  93.  Can I just come back on these trial areas. I know you are doing them across the country, the Lone Parents Initiative and the new one that is coming in October. Is there not a case to look at how these initiatives fare in different geographical areas? We have a benefit that is the same throughout the length and breadth of the country but the economic circumstances are very different depending on what part of the country you are in. I would be interested in your point of view regarding a universal payment or a type of geographic payment depending on circumstances.
  (Mr Field)  There are no plans, secret or otherwise, that the Government has to introduce regional local benefits. When this arose in the press it was a total misunderstanding of what staff were asking for. That was to control their own budgets and to be able to be totally constrained by the national law in respect of rights and duties and so on. What is interesting, if you are looking at different regions and how these programmes will work, is some work done in Glasgow. Particularly by a person who works in the housing department, on the difference in local labour markets and the different successes we may have with Welfare to Work. Of course, we are looking at that very carefully. One of the things will be to look at whether there are different success rates in different areas. It must be easier, must it not, to get young people into work when you have got an unemployment rate under two per cent, than if you have got an unemployment rate above 40 per cent? Can I just give you one example about either how local labour markets do not work, ie that people have not got information about jobs, or that there are other reasons at work. If you travel on the tube, which I do sometimes, you will see at Westminster, there are advertisements for station assistants from 18-plus starting at £15,700. If you go along the tube line and look at the unemployment rates amongst younger people, in some of the boroughs they are in it is at 30/40 per cent. Why do you have to advertise those jobs; for there to be such a scarcity that it actually pays the Underground to publish posters? It is not one job they have got, they have clearly got a number of jobs. As I say, that either suggests that people do not have the right information about where jobs are, which is why Beveridge was so keen to introduce employment exchanges to give information or it raises the question of whether enough job information is in Job Centres for people to draw upon In addition it raises questions about whether some people think they do not want to do certain sorts of work, or a combination of these factors.

Mr Wicks

  94.  At Westminster you would have to meet journalists and MPs every day on the platform.
  (Mr Field)  I hasten to add the advertisement was a general one. Whether you got extra money for having to mix with journalists and MPs is clearly——— The trade union organiser there from Croydon would no doubt help you.

Miss Kirkbride

  95.  Can I pick up on what you have just said. If that were true, certain people did not want to do certain kinds of work, what is the Government going to do about it?
  (Mr Field)  That comes back to the compulsion issue. We do believe that people have to be serious about making choices. I am not for a moment saying, and let me underscore this, if all those particular jobs were filled we would not have an unemployment problem for some young people in London. But, nevertheless, it is puzzling with persistently high levels of unemployment amongst younger people in the capital, in some boroughs, there are jobs like that that have to be advertised and are not taken.

Mr Gibb

  96.  Just one very quick question. You said during your remarks that you wanted to see resources moving from economic failure to supporting opportunity which reflects really the wording of Labour's Contract with the People that said in Clause 1 "We will move resources from the costs of social and economic failure into education". You talked earlier about wanting more resources for education and health. What are your targets then for reducing spending on social security or, as you said the last time you came to this Committee, curbing the growth of increase in the spending on social security? What are your targets, either of producing or reducing the rate of growth?
  (Mr Field)  The Green Paper has a very clear commitment that it is expected that welfare expenditure will grow. It does not expect the proportion which taxpayers meet to rise disproportionately.

  97.  If you are only not expecting the proportion that taxpayers meet to rise disproportionately that still implies a growth in spending incurred by the taxpayer. How then can you put forward Labour's Contract with the People, Clause 1, or indeed your statement just now that you want to move resources from social security to education?
  (Mr Field)  It partly comes back to the question that Archy argued earlier. Historically speaking, over a longish period of time, the real growth rate has been four per cent. If you take last year, which is the most favourable year to take, where we had got rapidly falling unemployment, then the rate of increase is below two per cent. What is important is to think about how we measure that growth over the economic cycle. Taking a particular year can be a very distorting. Secondly, what we put in the Green Paper ia actually quite a tough commitment. As national income rises people will spend more on welfare, ie they will be spending more on education, more on health, and disproportionately more if you are looking at pension resources which supplement the state pension. It will vary in different areas. I would not expect to see a growth in mutual or private insurance for unemployment insurance.

  98.  I am concerned about the Government expenditure because this was a fundamental part of Labour's programme, that it will reduce spending on social security and transfer it into education and health. You are in charge of the social security spending, what are you doing, what are your targets? That is all I am asking, what are your targets? What do you aim to achieve? Are you not even attempting to fulfil that obligation that Tony Blair put to the people during the General Election?
  (Mr Field)  We are anxious to. Our overall aim of moving resources from what we call failure to supporting success remains. One of the issues we have is that very issue in our success measurements. I still have not got from the Committee a steer on whether you will be doing an enquiry on the success measurements. We are anxious to supply you with some papers on that. This will be one area that we will want to discuss with you further. Not so that we can come up with some smart answer, so that you think we have slipped out of the wrestlers, not that you have done this. We seriously want to look at this issue, which is a fairly complicated one, and to do it publicly. Just as with Malcolm, who actually is concerned about issues of poverty, this Committee may make as one of its recommendations that we should have an objective on that. Clearly if the Committee makes that as one of its objectives and in conversation with you we fail to convince you why we think that may not be the most effective course of action, then we would have to take that proposal very seriously. I am not saying that we would follow it but we would take it very seriously given the work of this Committee. We will be returning to this issue in the discussions we hope to have with you on the success measurements. The Green Paper is quite clear. There is a ceiling on the proportion of expenditure which we will not exceed and within that ceiling we hope, over the life of the Parliament, to be moving resources from supporting failure to success. To help us do that the Chancellor has raised a little over £5 billion of money up front to try and achieve that particular objective. I emphasise that point because we are sometimes accused of not being interested in redistribution. I would have thought that was a considerable amount of tax to raise and to be used to make that transition a successin a way which is adding to existing budgets in the Department for Education and Employment, and ours. to make that transition a success.

Miss Kirkbride

  99.  What Malcolm is saying about success and the poverty index or whatever in absolute terms I think is significant. You did, whilst you were talking about it, talk about the politics behind it. You also then tried to suggest that previous discussion on this issue had been something of an area of debate. That is all very well but it would be fair to say from a Conservative point of view that discussions on poverty and what had happened to poverty in Britain over a period of 18 years in power had been used very successfully by the Labour Party to tarnish the economic record.
  (Mr Field)  I never once participated in those discussions. Nothing that I said could have been contributing to that debate. I thought it was wrong then. I did not try to make cheap party points. I believe equally now it is the wrong approach for the reasons I tried to suggest to Malcolm. What you cannot fiddle is death rates. If you are looking at the health of society I think one of the worrying trends is the number of young men who commit suicide. What is happening there is something which I think is disconcerting to put it mildly. People do not fiddle birth weights, that is not on the cards, therefore it is a much more objective standard of what Malcolm was after. I do think it does measure living standards over a longer period of time than just the immediate of what is happening in our society. From all the work that WYNN's have summarised for us there are some immediate factors, but one of the factors is the sort of diet that young women have had during their teenage years. It is quite difficult to make good that loss in the period just before or during pregnancy itself. Low birth weight does tell us something about what has been happening both to income and perhaps, therefore, eating habits of a very important group of the population over a longer period of time. I think these indices are much more important as poverty indices than having what I think is a futile debate, taking either the Income Support level as a poverty level or, in isolation, the data on the numbers whose incomes are half average earnings, for the reasons I said to Edward.


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