APPENDIX 16
Memorandum from Professor Gareth Wyn-Jones,
University of Wales, Bangor
ECONOMIC GAIN FROM USE OF WALES' NATURAL
RENEWABLE RESOURCES
INTRODUCTION
Rural Wales, historically dependent on primary
agriculture, some forestry, extractive industry and more recently
seasonal tourism, suffers from some unemployment, but greater
underemployment and social deprivation, a net out flow of the
young and ambitious, especially graduates, to escalator regions
and, in many cases, an ageing population of both indigenous residents
and in-migrants.
Estimating Median Welsh unemployment at 100,000,
pro rata rural Wales must seek to generate or attract 20,000
to 30,000 jobs and better quality employment to stem the tide
and revitalise communities.
The policy of attracting foreign inward investment
although highly successful in east Wales, has had few successes
in the rural west making Euro DPC in Llanberis the more notable.
The area is over dependent on public sector
employment and on public subsidy/support to the agricultural sector,
through the CAP, and subsidised forestry, is very vulnerable to
the current fashion for cutting public expenditure and to CAP
reform, especially after 2005 when driven by EU expansion to eastern
and central Europe as well as trade globalization promoted by
WTO.
Any analysis of the strengths and advantages
of western/rural Wales (roughly west of a line from Colwyn Bay
through Caersws to the Gower) must conclude that the quality of
the coastal and terrestrial environment is one of its major assets.
The area is also characterised by a low population
density, often ageing and relatively immobile and unproductive,
high rates of economic leakage, poor communications/infrastructure,
relatively undeveloped service sector and high car dependency.
It is the historic bastion of the Welsh language
and elements of Welsh culture although the majority of Welsh language
speakers are in the south-east and the culture is increasingly
cosmopolitan and varied.
GENERAL ISSUES
Many issues arise from this situation and below
I will specifically address a sub-set of them.
— how can we more effectively and profitably
convert our environmental/natural resource heritage into economic
assets and the basis for new commercial/business opportunities
for local people?
— given that environmental assets are
frequently `public goods', vide Adam Smith, what is an
appropriate balance for the private, public, co-operative and
civil sectors in developing this potential?
— how can we secure the necessary public
and private investment, including from the EU and secure public
support and active participation?
INITIATIVES TO
CAPITALISE ON
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSETS
Agriculture
Agriculture will remain the major land use in
Wales. Based on livestock, it is still a major industry especially
if considered in the context of the food chain from farm to plate.
Agricultural activity has also weaved the fabric of our landscapes
and habitats on the underlying geomorphology, despite the problems
of the last three decades. Without rehearsing the arguments surrounding
the current crisis, there is a compelling case for paying the
agricultural community for positive environmental stewardship
through an All Wales Agricultural Environmental Scheme (AWAES)
based on Tir Cymen. Further, farmers must be encouraged through
a strong Welsh Food Promotion and Marketing strategy to add value
locally to their products.
These two initiatives could and should be linked
to generate products with high environment, animal welfare quality,
local processing and a strong positive Welsh brand image.
— AWAES should be inclusive and properly
funded. It would be a long term publicly funded initiative based
on EC Regulation 2078/92.
— Every effort must be made to retain
the EAGGF contribution in Wales and not allow it to be returned
to the Treasury as at present.
— If this could be secured, about 40
per cent of the total cost of £65m (1996 costs) could come
from the EU. A properly funded inclusive AWAES would provide a
partial counter balance to the decline in headage payments as
CAP is modified—see Agenda 2000. (Currently agricultural
support payments in Wales are about £230 million each year).
— AWAES will create about 1,000 to
1,200 rural jobs and protect a further 1,000 to 2,000 others.
(see paper for detail)
— Linked to organic farming and to
quality food initiatives and greatly increased local slaughter
and processing, several thousand other jobs could be created in
the private sector, utilizing the public investment in farm-based
environmental management at a base
— this approach is entirely compatible
with the likely evolution of EU policy and of the CAP.
ISSUES
— are farmers prepared to make the
changes in their lifelong habits of marketing and to increase
co-operation?
— is it best achieved by co-ops or
local entrepreneurs? (why is `Snowdonia Lamb' not currently marketed
as a `special' commodity)?
— does a `Welsh' brand label find commercial
favour, c.f. Scottish beef?
— will farmers be reluctant to promote
local slaughter when accustomed to export to the Midlands and
Devon?
— Can we learn from French experience—"label
rouge"- "appelation d'origine controllée"?
Forestry and Woodland
The majority of Wales' woods (12 per cent of
land area) are coniferous. Unfortunately the soft wood market
is poor and unlikely to improve in the medium term given the poor
quality/maintenance of Welsh conifers and the availability of
Baltic and Scandinavian supplies. The situation for hard woods
is more hopeful. Coed Cymru has established new technologies and
products to utilise neglected hard woods, 80 per cent of which
are on farms.
Although currently only 2—4 per cent of
the sustainable annual hardwood increment is harvested for value
added products—e.g. conventional or end-grain floor tiles,
laminates for windows, quality joinery, etc. 250—260 jobs
have already been created, mainly on the production side.
It should be possible to increase production
over 10-15 years between 5 & 10 fold, both by the marketing
of these new products and some substitution of Welsh hardwoods
into the very extensive Welsh furniture manufacturing sector in
Bridgend, Brynmawr, Deeside and Wrexham, currently entirely dependent
on imported timber.
Coed Cymru has secured an international FSC
certificate for sustainable management for its hardwood woodlands
making Welsh hardwoods commercially preferable to suspect
tropical timbers from Indonesia and Brazil, etc. Current negotiations
with Sainsbury's Home Base for example.
A revitalised hardwood sector could produce
in excess of 2,000 new jobs mainly in rural but also significantly
in urban Wales.
ISSUES
— significant problem of developing
the source to user supply chain when many dispersed sources and
varied users involved.
— FSC certificate now so attractive
that Welsh hardwood maybe exported to major English manufacturers
without achieving maximum local added value and job creation.
— should there now be pressure on Local
Authorities (e.g. National Parks) and National Assembly to promote
Welsh timber laminate products which are now competitive with
UPVC products, e.g. windows, doors, desks, tables, chairs, etc.
FUTURE INVESTMENT
Current Coed Cymru annual budget is circa £600k,
approximately 1/3 each from LAs, CCW and EU. Developments in private
sector receive DBRW support although they are largely privately
funded. The woodland management to achieve FSC status depends
on Woodland Grant Schemes and/or Tir Cymen support depending on
location.
DIRECT ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT
— while the numbers of wardens and
other environmental managers are small compared with farmers;
numbering 100's rather than circa 20,000, this sector grew rapidly
in the 80's and early 90's. It is worth noting that the private
sector as well as the public sector (CCW, L.As) is important in
Wales, (e.g. National Trust, RSPB, other Trusts)
— the National Trust is a major land
owner employing, in Wales, 249 permanent and 404 seasonal staff.
The organisation is working to reposition itself in Wales and
identify with Wales and her heritage.
— it seems unlikely that significant
extra public monies will be found for this sector and, I would
argue, it is socially, economically and environmentally more desirable
to invest in a comprehensive farm-based stewardship scheme rather
than increase the cadre of wardens.
— this sector, however, forms a crucial
link to the recreation/tourism sector and we should consider the
lessons from Austria etc. on how local communities can be encouraged
to raise funds to carry out their own recreation/environmental
initiatives to employ local wardens.
TOURISM/RECREATION
This sector, worth in excess of £1.6 billion
in Wales, is heavily relevant on selling the environmental qualities
of Wales. New studies, e.g. "Co-operating to Compete—North
Wales Regional Tourism Strategy 1998—2005" stress the
need for a strong branded approach emphasising environmental quality.
Strong links should be forged between agri-forest
environmental management schemes, high quality local food and
timber products, local food outlets and catering and the tourism
brand image so that they are mutually reinforcing and improve
the image of Wales in England and elsewhere.
There is also considerable room for specialist
outdoor, environmental, recreational experiences. These can range
from long/short distance paths and circular walks, cycle ways,
narrow gauge rail, the Red Kite Trail, farm-house holiday riding
and more active and more noisy sports on land and sea.
Three medium team objectives maybe suggested:
— a 5 per cent increase in tourism
especially in the short break sector.
— a specific effort to increase the
proportion of AB social class tourist by emphasising the environmental
quality of rural western Wales. (Currently Welsh tourism is dominated
by the CD market).
— specific measures to manage the day
visitor trade to increase the economic benefit to local communities
(see Snowdonia Scheme in IWA report)
— the new SAC off the shores of Llyn
and Meirionydd may offer the marine equivalent of `Tir Cymen'
to local fishermen and the prospect of promoting sustainable sea
products, e.g. crab, lobster, mackerel, etc. to local restaurants
and to tourists.
Space and time do not permit consideration of
other aspects of natural renewable resource use but I would wish
to note the importance of
Renewable Energy
Specialised Bioproducts
— as varied as elderflower and sheep
engineered to produce specific antibodies or microbial culturing
including of course, local beers.
Environmental based local products, e.g. climbing
equipment.
Environmental consultancies selling Welsh skills
elsewhere
There needs to be a Research and Development
process in Wales to support these policies. IGER's role should
be readdressed and, certainly, the Welsh Universities should be
encouraged to take a greater interest in national/regular problems.
SUMMARY
It is a reasonable supposition that a policy
based on the sustainable exploitation of the natural renewable
resources of Wales could generate an additional 8,000 to 12,000
jobs over a ten year period.
This policy would contribute to the economic
revitalisation of this area; produce perhaps half the jobs required.
The policy will require two types of public
support:
— long term support for agri-environmental
and woodland management and hard wood planting scheme (note the
Birch Planting scheme in the Brecon Beacons suggests that a 15-20
cycle is feasible)
— short term pump priming assistance
to a variety of businesses.
The former investment should enjoy EU support
and be an important component of a reformed CAP.
The latter should be an important component
of the economic strategy of the National Assembly and of the new
WDA.
Professor Gareth Wyn-Jones
University of Wales, Bangor
3 June 1998
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