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1.14 pm
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (Mr. Nick Raynsford): I start by offering a most sincere apology to you, Mr. Deputy Speaker, to the hon. Member for Northavon (Mr. Webb) and to the whole House for not having been present for the start of the debate. Unfortunately, I thought that it was due to start at
1.30 rather than 1 o'clock. That was an error for which I accept full responsibility, and I would like to make clear to the House my regret that I was not here earlier.
I congratulate the hon. Member on securing the debate. It is on an important subject, which has been raised before by many other hon. Members. I spoke on the subject of house building requirements only two weeks ago, during a debate secured by the hon. Member for Tewkesbury (Mr. Robertson), the hon. Gentleman's relatively near parliamentary neighbour.
Household growth is a major issue facing society today. Some people may like to believe that it can be wished away, so that no new houses will need to be built, but that is not realistic. Society is continuing to change and evolve whether we like it or not, and new requirements for housing are part of that process. The Government have to accept that, and to respond appropriately.
As the hon. Gentleman was not present for that most recent debate on house building, it may be helpful if I start by explaining how the household projections are arrived at, and how they are translated into development plans.
Mr. Webb:
The Minister is right to say that I was not present for the discussion about Gloucestershire, but I have read the Hansard report of it, so I do not want the Minister to duplicate what he said then.
Mr. Raynsford:
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for telling me that, and I shall make a brief reference to the subject, rather than going into all the details.
The number of new households projected to form in England over the 25 years between 1996 and 2021 is about 3.8 million, compared to the 4.4 million projected for the 25-year period ending in 2016. The figure of 3.8 million is principally derived by projecting previous patterns of population change and household formation, and should not be seen as a forecast or estimate. It is based entirely on what might be expected to occur if previous trends continued, and is heavily dependent on the assumptions involved.
Such trends can and do change. The current suggestion is that the pace of household growth may be slowing down. Part of the underlying reason for that is that recent evidence has shown that cohabitation is increasing faster than expected, and a smaller proportion of women are widows or divorcees.
However, we must not think in terms of numbers alone. We are keen to focus the debate on how we should plan for future homes in a sustainable way. Our consultation paper, "Planning for the Communities of the Future", which we published last year, sets out the results of our analysis of the system for calculating and providing for the country's housing needs that we inherited from the previous Administration. It also explains our strategy for promoting more sustainable patterns of development and encouraging urban renewal.
We seek to ensure that where development is needed outside or adjacent to urban areas, it must be sustainable and must be combined with an active approach towards the protection of the countryside. Those proposals represent a comprehensive approach to meeting housing needs well into the new millennium. They differ from the previous system, which has been seen as essentially top down, inflexible and wedded too rigidly to the principle of predict and provide.
We have also changed our approach to establishing housing numbers by region. The new draft PPG11 on regional planning, which sets out our proposals for improving the preparation and content of regional planning guidance, represents an important step in modernising the system, and reflects our commitment to decentralised decision taking and integrated policy making designed to achieve sustainable solutions.
The new arrangements give greater responsibility to local authorities, through regional planning conferences, in preparing regional planning strategies. They should result in increased regional ownership of both the figures and the policies and in increased commitment to their delivery. Instead of Government, the regional planning authority will be responsible for preparing the draft regional strategy, including proposing the amount of additional housing needed in the planned period.
We recently announced household projections for each of the Government office regions. They should be treated not as forecasts or predictions, but as indications based on recent trends. Other factors should equally be taken into account so that regional planning bodies should, against the background of need and capacity, take a realistic, responsible approach to planning housing provision. We realise that similar information at sub-regional level, for example in the hon. Gentleman's region, could also be useful. The preparation of relevant figures will proceed so that we can make them available as soon as possible in a form consistent with that published as part of the last set of household projections in 1995.
One of the key tasks of the new regional planning guidance will be to provide guidance on the overall level of housing and its distribution within the region, making full use of previously developed land. In assessing the housing provision required for the 15 or 20 years covered by the strategy, we expect the regional planning body to work with other regional stakeholders to establish the level of housing required to meet the region's housing needs. In making that assessment, the Government's latest published household projections should be considered. Urban capacity studies should be undertaken to explore the implications of changing policies and standards that would reduce the land-take of new development while securing attractive residential environments.
Against that background of need and capacity, the regional planning body should be able to take a realistic and responsible approach to future housing provision. It must be prepared to justify its views fully in public at the examination of the draft regional planning guidance. The structure plan and unitary plan authorities will, of course, be party to that process. Once the housing requirements have been established and confirmed by the Secretary of State following the public examination, the presumption is that structure plans and unitary development plans should focus on the broad distribution and location of growth. It is the essence of the plan, monitor and manage approach that we now advocate that both the assessment of housing requirements and distribution within the region should be kept under review. If there are signs of under or over-provision, we expect both RPG and development plans to be reviewed accordingly.
On the position in the former county of Avon, RPG figures were agreed by the authorities in the region in 1994. They stated that 59,000 extra homes would be
required in the county between 1991 and 2011, based on the 1989 household projections. After allowing for dwellings completed between 1991 and 1996, 44,100 additional dwellings remained to be provided between 1996 and 2011. The replacement structure plan proposes 43,000 new dwellings over that period. The plan was subject to public scrutiny at an examination in public last month under an independent panel. Officials from the Government office of the south-west attended, and emphasised that greater account should be taken of the need to focus new housing and other development on urban areas to achieve higher densities and maximise opportunities for reusing previously developed land and buildings. I know that those instincts are in line with those of the hon. Gentleman. The panel's report is being prepared, and I am sure that he therefore appreciates that I cannot comment further on the issues or speculate on the outcome.
The consultation draft of the south Gloucestershire local plan was published in 1997. My officials in the Government office of the south-west made several comments on it on behalf of the Secretary of State. Many of them raised questions about the plan's overall strategy and the extent to which sustainable development will be secured under it. Those concerns included the amount of development proposed on green-field sites and the relatively low density of new housing proposals. South Gloucestershire council is considering its response to those and other comments, as well as awaiting the outcome of the public examination of the structure plan before publishing the deposit version of the plan.
The way forward lies in building on the positive options for meeting housing requirements and protecting the countryside. There is more common ground than is often acknowledged. We all want as much land recycling as possible and more sustainable patterns of development. We all want to protect the countryside, regenerate our urban areas and ensure that people are properly housed. We are trying to develop that agenda as proactively as possible, and much more work needs to be done to help local authorities to achieve that.
The hon. Gentleman raised some specific issues that I wish to address. He is particularly concerned about the number of empty properties. He knows that the Government attach great importance to bringing such properties into use. I am pleased that Bristol city council has developed an empty homes strategy that has won awards and attaches considerable importance to action to bring empty properties back into use. We want that taken forward.
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