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Mr. William Ross (East Londonderry): Can the right hon. Gentleman clarify the position? Everyone has heard him with great interest, but when he talks about flexibility and a further estimate, is he saying that any further sums needed for the Assembly will come from what was voted in March and what will be voted tonight, or will there be a supplementary estimate to draw further money down from the United Kingdom Consolidated Fund?
Mr. Murphy: The answer is no. Further money will not come from the Consolidated Fund in that the Government have made it clear that for devolution in Northern Ireland, as much as in Wales and Scotland, costs for the Assemblies must be found from the block grant. However, the hon. Gentleman knows that during any financial year, financial monitoring takes place on a three-monthly and then a six-monthly basis. On those estimates, we will look clearly at the situation and sufficient money will be provided for the operation of the Assembly. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State and I could not estimate a precise figure six or seven months ago, when we were not sure exactly what arrangements would be necessary. Of course, we still do not know precisely when the Assembly will operate from. We will find the money from the existing provision.
Mr. Ross: That implies that any additional sums needed will have to come from provision made under other headings. Has the Minister any idea which they would be? Most Departments, especially those dealing with hospitals and education, find it difficult enough to manage already.
Mr. Murphy: I understand what the hon. Gentleman is getting at, but he will not get me to agree with him on this. As we get to the middle of a financial year and consider estimates in a budget of almost £8 billion, we sometimes find enormous underspends while there are overspends in other Departments. The whole budget tends to balance out in the middle of the year. We knew that when the budget was formed, but it would have been wrong for us initially to put in an indeterminate figure. We now believe that we have a firm figure, if and when devolution occurs in Northern Ireland in the next few weeks. We do not know precisely when that will happen, but provision will be made. We cannot allow a situation to develop in which the Assembly cannot be paid for, but it is in a very different situation from Cardiff or Edinburgh, in that we knew precisely when the Assembly in Wales and the Parliament in Scotland would start. We do not know precisely from when the full devolved Assembly will operate in Northern Ireland, but today, we are indicating that, in the event of it starting at the
beginning of July, we could have to find the figures that I mentioned earlier. We are confident that they will be found within the provisions of the budget.
Rev. Martin Smyth (Belfast, South): I understand the Minister's point, but he said that there was a miscalculation and that certain figures had been overlooked. The total originally worked out at about half the amount that is now required. That is the point we are pressing because that was surely a mistake in the original estimates. It would be wrong to take money out of the block budget for a Government planning mistake. It may not be needed, but I would like the Minister to reconsider his statement that the money must be found from the block grant if a mistake has been made at the start.
Mr. Murphy: The comprehensive spending review extended over not one, but three years. It is more difficult to estimate for something when we do not know when it will start. That is a totally different situation. Since then, we have benefited from the expertise of those in the Assembly, particularly the Northern Ireland Assembly Commission, who have examined in detail what the Assembly has to provide. I have had several meetings with the hon. Member for Belfast, East (Mr. Robinson) and others who have made perfectly clear what it is likely to have to deal with in coming years. There are other aspects, such as the payment of salaries and other on-going matters, for which we must make provision.
The Northern Ireland Assembly is different--I repeat this point--because we do not know the precise start date. We know the situation in Cardiff and in Edinburgh. The people of Northern Ireland voted for the Assembly. I believe that they desperately want it to be established as soon as possible so that there can be local accountability--and we must pay for it.
Dr. Norman A. Godman (Greenock and Inverclyde):
The Minister mentioned the Parliament in Scotland. I hope to be at its formal opening next week--subject to the agreement of the Whips. I am the husband of a Member of the Scottish Parliament, so I should be there. The Minister referred earlier to the Human Rights Commission. Am I correct in thinking that its members are preparing a draft Bill of Rights? If that is so, has the Minister any knowledge of when that draft might be published for consultation purposes?
Mr. Murphy:
I hope that my hon. Friend joins his wife at the opening of the Scottish Parliament next week--but that will depend upon the Whips. The Human Rights Commission is working hard on the Bill of Rights to which my hon. Friend refers. I do not know precisely when it will evolve, but I shall bear in mind his remarks and ensure that the widest possible consultation occurs.
Mr. Peter Robinson (Belfast, East):
As a general principle, does the Minister agree that it is much easier for Ministers to add money to a budget than take it away? Therefore, would it not have been better if the Government had allocated the amount that they deemed might be necessary for the Assembly to that head of expenditure, rather than subtracting it from other heads of expenditure as soon as devolution occurs? Has the Minister not left an unpalatable task for the new
Mr. Murphy:
The matter ought not be looked at in the context of removing money from this or that. Even if we had allocated the money to which the hon. Gentleman refers to the budget in the first place, the same argument could have applied some months ago--as it may apply some weeks hence. I hope that we will face this problem because it will mean that there is a fully devolved Administration in Northern Ireland.
I raise the matter in some detail this evening because the hon. Gentleman, I and other members of the Commission have discussed it. I do not want it to be thought for one second that the Government are reneging on their responsibility to pay for the Assembly. However, the figure is obviously difficult to pin down--whether we have it now or had it six months ago. I think that we are in a better position now to work out precisely what we think could be spent in the event of devolution. It is a matter of judgment whether we should have allocated the money some months ago. The Government accept absolutely the responsibility of paying for the Assembly. That is what the people of Northern Ireland voted for and it is what democracy is about.
I must refer to Belfast port as several hon. Members may refer to it during the debate. The House should be aware that the estimates before it tonight assume a receipt from the sale of Belfast port as part of the Chancellor's economic initiative. I made it clear to the Assembly when I addressed it some months ago--my ministerial colleagues have reinforced this point--that the sale of the port is an essential underpinning of that initiative. We are making every effort to promote a successful sale and we have encouraged extensive consultation about an acceptable proposal from the Belfast harbour commissioners.
However, if, for any reason, it is not possible to complete the sale during this financial year, there will have to be adjustments to spending plans. In that context--and as a contingency--we are, for the moment, holding back some future spending. If necessary, some projects may have to be delayed until the receipt is available. That is a prudent safeguard that may be needed in order to live within our budget. We will clearly have to examine the figures in the weeks and months ahead in the light of what I have explained to the House.
We have included £17 million for European Union and national agriculture support measures, and £153 million for other agricultural services. That includes estimates for farm support, for the development of agricultural industries, for the enhancement of the countryside, for forestry and fisheries, for rivers and for rural development. I know that Northern Ireland Members place a high premium on the agricultural industry in Northern Ireland; it is one of the major employers and is extremely important to the economy.
Economic development is vital for the future of Northern Ireland; we have set aside £153 million for the Industrial Development Board. I believe that the Good Friday agreement provides us with a unique opportunity for attracting new investment.
We have allowed £15 million for the Northern Ireland tourist board; continued peace will undoubtedly enhance tourist potential. We estimate that there will be a 4 per cent. increase in visitors this year--1.53 million people will come to Northern Ireland--and 15,000 jobs depend on that. If we achieved the same levels of tourism as the Republic of Ireland, we could create a further 20,000 jobs in Northern Ireland. We have allocated £265 million for the Training and Employment Agency, and £72 million for welfare to work. Almost 3,000 employees have signed up for the new deal agreement. We have allocated £61 million for more than 11,000 places under the job skills training programme.
The amount provided for education in Northern Ireland is £1.536 million: that is a 6 per cent. increase over last year for schools, libraries, youth and further and higher education services--for all types of school in Northern Ireland. We have included £17 million for arts and museums, and £5 million for the Odyssey millennium landmark project.
Another of the Government's priorities is the health service; we are spending £1,666 million for hospital, community health and personal social services. We have set aside £33 million for grants to voluntary bodies and certain other services. There has been increased provision for winter fuel payments and for payments into the Northern Ireland national insurance fund.
Finally, the Department of the Environment covers many areas of spending in Northern Ireland. There will be £147 million for our roads, £20 million for road passenger services and £13 million for the support of our rail services. There will be about £605 million available for housing, and £209 million for water and sewerage systems. We are targeting £30 million on areas in need of social and economic regeneration.
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