Supplementary Memorandum submitted by
Michael MccGwire on the Future of NATO
There appears to be a consensus within NATO
officialdom and among European members of the alliance that following
the accession of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in April
1999, there should be a moratorium on further invitations.
Such a policy, providing time for digestion,
restructuring and evaluation, can be supported by almost all parties
to the debate. Many of the strongest proponents of enlargement
urge caution at this stage, as do most governments.
The adoption of such a policy at the Washington
Summit is threatened by the US political process. For their different
reasons, the hard line Republicans in Congress and the White House
favour further invitations.
The danger lies in the White House tactic of
making unilateral statements about future membership, which take
on the garb of irrevocable NATO commitments.
To counter this threat requires that pre-emptive
statements on the need for a moratorium be placed on record by
European members and publicised internationally, preferably before
the end of the year. The following example is worded to attract
maximum support from both sides of the debate.
"At the NATO Summit in April 1999, Poland,
Hungary and the Czech Republic will be confirmed as members of
the alliance.
Even though there is a certain logic to their
membership in geopolitical and strategic terms, to incorporate
these former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO's evolving mission
structure will require significant adaptation by all parties.
The last five years has been a time of continual
change for NATO: PfP, the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, the
push for enlargement, the Dayton accords (and Kosovo), the Founding
Act with Russia, joint operations with `partnership' forces, and
now the new Strategic Concept.
There is a pressing need for time to digest these
structural developments, to analyse the growing body of experience
and to consider how best to move ahead.
It is also clear that enlargement beyond NATO's
newly created eastern border will involve political complications
of a different order to those encountered to date.
In the period leading up to the April Summit,
it is important that all NATO members should avoid any statements,
collective or individual, that imply that the alliance is committed
to further enlargement at this juncture in time."
|
