Economic collapse
57. The danger of economic crisis is another of the
principal threats to regional security. The initial drying-up
of budget lines from Moscow in 1991, and the Russian economic
collapse of 1998, have both dealt economic shocks to the region
and substantially increased poverty. The general economic decline
across the region has led to cuts in production and sharp reductions
in the standards of living of all but a minority of citizens:
this economic malaise has been exacerbated by corruption.[117]
The quality of education, health and social services provision
has been badly affected. The states of the South Caucasus have
in particular suffered from the loss of their markets in Russia
and of remittances from their nationals working there. There have
been demonstrations in Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic against
steep declines in living standards. The poverty which stretches
across the region must be regarded as a threat to its stability.
We deal further below[118]
with the economic potential of the region and measures to ensure
its continuing economic stability.
Weakness of civil society
58. A further major threat to the region's security
is in its generally slow development of rights-based civil society.
Respect for human rights and the development of structures such
as NGOs and trades unions which stand apart from the structures
of the state but assist in the development of open and democratic
societies are clearly fundamental to the maintenance of stable
government in the region as a whole. It is especially important
given the serious challenges posed by political and economic transition
throughout the region. The experience of the Soviet era has shown
that true stability can only be built upon the principles of openness
and democracy in government and society. We discuss the development
of civil society in the region at greater length when we consider
human rights and good governance issues.[119]
59. It is clear from the preceding paragraphs that
there is a worrying potential in the region for instability which
may adversely affect the United Kingdom's commercial and geographical
interests. We conclude that the Government's stated objective
of supporting the independence, security and territorial integrity
of the states of the region is well-founded.
99 Q36. Back
100
Q35. Back
101
Evidence pp. 83-84. Back
102
Evidence p. 81. Back
103
Appendix 32, Evidence p. 200. Back
104
Appendix 34, Evidence p. 218. Back
105
Appendix 34, Evidence p. 219. Back
106
Evidence pp. 81-82; Q 241. Back
107
Appendix 24, Evidence p. 219. Back
108
See QQ239-246, especially Q242. Back
109
Appendix 34, Evidence p. 219. Back
110
"Biblical flood poised to drown a nation", The Observer,
20 June 1999. Back
111
Evidence pp. 4-11. Back
112
QQ11, 29. Back
113
Evidence p. 5. Back
114
Evidence p. 11. Back
115
QQ9, 30. Back
116
Q10. Back
117
Appendix 5, Evidence p. 122; Appendix 7, Evidence p. 129. Back
118
See below, paragraphs 74 ff. Back
119
See below, paragraphs 102-144. Back