Further memorandum by the Northern Ireland
Economic Council
HOW ARE COMMUNITY DIFFERENTIALS TO BE MEASURED?
A central plank in Peter Brooke's TSN statement
concerned the issue of reducing community differentials. This
raises the seemingly innocuous issue of how these are to be measured.
In the case of unemployment rates—often considered central
to TSN—is it the percentage point difference between
Catholics and Protestants (e.g., 20 per cent-10 per cent = 10
per cent) or the ratio of rates (e.g., 20 per cent/10 per
cent = 2)? If defined in terms of percentage point difference
then, other things being equal, policy could be religion-blind
and reduce differentials (Policy 1 in Box 2). The ratio of the
rates would, however, remain unchanged at 2 (i.e., 10/5 = 2).
If, on the other hand, by community differential is meant the
ratio, then Government would have to skew resources disproportionately
towards Catholics (Policy 2 in Box 2). This implies, other things
being equal, that Catholics, in similar circumstances to Protestants,
would be treated more favourably. Thus, defining the differential
will have important policy implications.
BOX 2
Reducing Community Differentials. The Case of
Unemployment. An Illustrative Example.
| Initial state
| | | |
| | |
|
| Unemployment
number
| Employment
number | Unemployment rate percentage
|
| | |
|
| Catholic | 60,000 | 240,000
| 20 |
| Protestant | 30,000 | 270,000
| 10 |
| | |
|
| | |
|
Policy intervention
Create/assist 45,000 unemployed persons into employment.
Assumptions
— Inactivity, migration remain unchanged.
— No new entrants to labour force.
— No displacement of employed by unemployed moving
into employment.
Policy 1: Religion-blind1
30,000 places to Catholic unemployed; 15,000 places to Protestant unemployed
|
| | |
|
| Unemployment
number
| Employment
number | Unemployment rate
percentage
|
| | |
|
| Catholic | 30,000 | 270,000
| 10 |
| Protestant | 15,000 | 285,000
| 5 |
| | |
|
Note: Differential (compared to initial state); Percentage Point 10 -‹ 5; Ratio 2 -‹ 2.
1 The probability of being selected is the same for all the unemployed, irrespective of religion. In the example the probability is 0.5 or a half (i.e., for Catholics 30,000/60,000; for Protestants 15,000/30,000.
Source: NIEC.
|
Policy 2: Targeted towards Catholic unemployed1
35,000 places to Catholic unemployed; 10,000 places to Protestant unemployed
|
| | |
|
| Unemployment
number
| Employment
number | Unemployment rate
percentage
|
| | |
|
| Catholic | 25,000 | 275,000
| 8.3 |
| Protestant | 20,000 | 280,000
| 6.7 |
| | |
|
Note: Differential (compared to initial state); Percentage Point 10 -‹ 1.6; Ratio 2 -‹ 1.2.
1 The probability of being selected is higher for Catholics than Protestants. In the example, the probability for Catholics is 0.58 (i.e., 35,000/60,000; for Protestants 0.33 (i.e., 10,000/30,000).
Source: NIEC.
|
|
