Select Committee on Social Security Minutes of Evidence


Annex A

STATISTICAL INFORMATION ON THE PILOT AREAS

Table 1

ANNUAL INFLOW ESTIMATES IN ACTION AREAS BY CLIENT GROUP

SWFG INFLOW ESTIMATES
LP inflowS+D inflow IS other/carer
& widows
JSA inflowTotal
Action Areas
Essex SE2,5004,500 1,00020,00028,000
Warwickshire3,0006,500 1,50019,00030,000
Clyde Coast & Renfrew3,000 7,5001,00030,000 41,000
Lea Roding3,5005,000 2,50029,50040,500
Total11,50024,000 6,00098,500139,500
+6 per cent JSA not pursued 6,000 6,000
+1 per cent re-directs100 2001001,000 1,500
Grand Total12,00024,000 6,000105,500147,000
PRIVATE/VOL SECTOR
Action Areas
Suffolk3,0006,500 1,50032,50043,000
North Nottinghamshire2,000 6,5002,00018,000 28,500
Leeds3,50014,500 3,50042,00063,500
North Cheshire2,5007,000 1,00021,00031,000
Total10,50034,000 8,000113,000166,000
+6 per cent JSA not pursued 7,000 7,000
+1 per cent re-directs100 3001001,200 1,700
Grand Total10,80034,500 8,000121,100174,400
CALL CENTRE
Action Areas
Somerset2,5007,000 1,50022,50033,500
Buckinghamshire3,0006,000 1,50021,50031,500
Gwent Borders2,0006,000 1,00020,00029,000
Calderdale and Kirklees4,000 9,5003,00046,500 62,500
Total11,00028,000 6,500110,500156,500
+6 per cent JSA not pursued 6,500 6,500
+1 per cent re-directs100 3001001,200 1,600
Grand Total11,50028,500 7,000118,000164,500
Total Flows excluding
  allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs
Total33,50086,000 20,500322,000462,000
Average per variant11,000 28,5007,000107,500 154,000
Total Flows (including allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs):
Total34,00087,000 20,500344,500486,000
Average per variant11,500 29,0007,000115,000 162,000

Notes

  1.  Estimates rounded to nearest 500 and nearest 100 for re-directs. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

  2.   Source: ASD1 Statistical samples. JUVOS 100 per cent count for JSA figures.

Table 2

ANNUAL INFLOW ESTIMATES IN CONTROL AREAS BY CLIENT GROUP

Control Areas
Final Selection
LP inflowS+D inflow IS other/carer
& widows
JSA inflowTotal
Basic Model
Control Areas
Surrey5,50014,500 3,50015,50039,000
Wiltshire4,0007,000 1,50024,00037,000
Tayside3,0006,000 1,00030,50040,000
Greater Manchester
Pennine
5,500 17,0001,50050,500 75,000
Total18,00044,000 8,000121,000190,500
+6 per cent JSA not pursued 7,500 7,500
+1 per cent re-directs200 4001001,300 2,000
Grand Total18,000 44,5008,000129,500 200,000
Private/Vol Sector
Control Areas
Dorset2,0008,000 1,00028,50039,500
North Staffordshire3,000 10,0002,50026,000 41,500
Northumbria4,00010,000 2,50018,00034,500
Wolverhampton3,0005,500 1,00018,00028,000
Total12,00034,000 7,00091,000144,000
+6 per cent JSA not pursued 5,500 5,500
+1 per cent re-directs100 300100100 1,500
Grand Total12,000 34,0007,00097,500 151,000
Call Centre
Control Areas
W. Sussex3,0006,500 2,00023,00034,000
Cambridgeshire2,5006,500 1,50027,00037,500
Norwich4,0007,000 1,50032,50045,000
Hull2,50011,000 2,00037,50052,500
Total11,50030,500 7,000120,500169,000
+6 per cent JSA not pursued 7,000 7,000
+1 per cent re-directs100 3001001,300 1,800
Grand Total11,500 31,0007,000129,000 178,000
Total Flows excluding allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs
Total41,000108,500 22,000332,500504,000
Average per variant13,500 36,0007,500111,000 168,000
Total Flows (including allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs):
Total41,500109,500 22,000356,000529,000
Average per variant4,000 36,5007,500118,500 176,500

  Notes:

  1.  Estimates rounded to nearest 500 and nearest 100 for re-directs. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

  2.   Source: ASD1 Statistical samples. JUVOS 100 per cent count for JSA figures.

Table 3

SWFG—UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND GEOGRAPHICAL TYPE

Action AreasUnemployment rate Geographical type Control Areas Unemployment rate Geographical type
BASIC MODEL
Essex SE4.1 OHO Surrey4.1 OHO
Warwickshire4.9 Medium city II Wiltshire3.1 Medium city II
Clyde Coast and Renfrew7.3 OHOTayside6.8 OHO
Lea Roding7.3 Medium city I Greater Manchester Pennine8.8 Medium city I
PRIVATE/VOL SECTOR
Suffolk5.5 OHO Dorset5.6 Rural
North Nottinghamshire5.3 Medium city IINorth Staffordshire 4.1 Medium city II
Leeds9.0 Medium city II Northumbria7.2 OHO
North Cheshire7.8 Medium city I Wolverhampton6.4 Medium city I
CALL CENTRE
Somerset4.3 Rural West Sussex3.3 Rural
Buckinghamshire3.3 Medium city II Cambridgeshire4.0 Medium city II
Gwent Borders6.0 Medium city I Norwich6.2 OHO
Calderdale and Kirklees
6.1

Medium city I
Hull 5.8 Medium city I

Notes:

  1.   Source: ASD2 Cluster analyses for geographical type. Claimant count and Census data for Unemployment rates.

GEOGRAPHICAL TYPE—EXPLANATION OF CATEGORIES

  1.  The BA districts are broken down into geographical types, based on cluster analysis undertaken by ASD2. This places areas into groups which have similar characteristics.

  2.  The data used in the cluster analysis was the 1999 Census. The analysis was based on five variables found to be important in determining geographical type:

    —  percentage of the population aged 18-24;

    —  percentage of households with dependent children;

    —  percentage of residents born in New Commonwealth;

    —  percentage of owner occupied dwellings;

    —  percentage of population aged over pension age.

  3.  The analysis places BADs with similar values of these variables into the same geographical type or cluster. Each cluster is given an overall value depending on the values found for the five variables listed above. This gives an indication of how similar or different the clusters were. In general the London Area had the most extreme values for the variables chosen. They had the highest percentage aged 18-24, the lowest percentage with dependent children, the highest percentage residents born in the New Commonwealth, the lowest percentage owner occupiers and the lowest percentage over pension age. The Rural Area cluster tended to have high values where the London Area had low ones and vice-versa. The other clusters tend to follow a progression within each census variable, but this was not always the case. The clusters used, and the average values found were:
London Areas1.00
Northern City1.50
Medium Sized City Area I2.16
Medium Sized City Area II3.91
Older Home Owning Areas (OHO)3.81
Rural Areas4.71

Table 4

SWFG CLIENT GROUPS BY SEX

(I)  ACTION AREAS
Client GroupTotal MaleFemale Percentage
Male
Percentage
Female
LP inflow33,5001,500 32,000595
Sick and Disabled86,000 51,50034,50060 40
IS other/Carers/Widows205,000 8,50012,00041 59
JSA322,000226,000 96,0007030
Total462,000288,000 174,0006238

(II)  CONTROL AREAS
Client GroupTotal MaleFemale Percentage
Male
Percentage
Female
LP inflow41,0001,000 40,000397
Sick and Disabled108,500 62,50046,00058 42
IS other/Carers/Widows22,000 8,50013,50038 62
JSA332,500233,500 99,0007030
Total504,000305,500 198,5006139

(III)  TOTAL ANNUAL GB INFLOW ESTIMATES
Client GroupTotal MaleFemale Percentage
Male
Percentage
Female
LP inflow337,00021,000 316,000694
Sick and Disabled936,000 583,000352,50062 38
IS other/Carers/Widows245,000 100,500144,50041 59
JSA3,250,0002,275,000 975,0007030
Total4,768,0003,023,500 1,744,0006337


Notes

  1.  Estimates rounded to nearest 500. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

  2.  It is not possible to provide a gender breakdown for the individual action and control areas due to small sample sizes.

  3.  The JSA gender breakdown for the action and control areas has been estimated using the GB breakdown.

  4.  Source: Cross benefit analyses of ASD1 statistical samples.

Table 5

WORKING AGE POPULATION (18-59) IN SWFG AREAS BY SEX

BASIC MODEL
Action AreasMale FemaleTotal
Essex SE267,000249,000 516,000
Warwickshire297,000 282,000579,000
Clyde Coast & Renfrewn/a n/an/a
Lea Roding232,000254,000 486,000

PRIVATE/VOL SECTOR
Action AreasMale FemaleTotal
Suffolk245,000211,000 455,000
North Nottinghamshire169,000 157,000326,000
Leeds226,000252,000 477,000
North Cheshire186,000 172,000357,000

CALL CENTRE
Action AreasMale FemaleTotal
Somerset246,000218,000 464,000
Buckinghamshire361,000 310,000671,000
Gwent Borders313,000 314,000628,000
Calderdale and Kirklees160,000 152,000312,000

CONTROL AREAS BASIC MODEL
Control AreasMale FemaleTotal
Surrey737,000725,000 1,462,000
Wiltshire188,000183,000 371,000
Tayside150,000142,000 292,000
Greater Manchester230,000 240,000471,000
Pennine

PRIVATE/VOL SECTOR
Control AreasMale FemaleTotal
Dorset201,000182,000 383,000
North Staffordshire155,000 154,000309,000
Northumbria176,000153,000 329,000
Wolverhamptonn/an/a n/a

CALL CENTRE
Control AreasMale FemaleTotal
W Sussex154,000146,000 300,000
Cambridgeshire221,000 206,000427,000
Norwich166,000149,000 315,000
Hull145,000154,000 299,000

Notes:

  1.  Source: 1996-97 Family Resource Survey.

  2.  Figures for Clyde Coast and Renfrew and Wolverhampton not available.

Table 6

POPULATION IN SWFG AREAS BY AGE
Age
Action Areas18-24 25-4950-59
Basic Model195,0001,002,000 384,000
Private/Vol Sector193,000 1,018,000405,000
Call Centre224,0001,305,000 545,000
Total612,0003,325,000 1,334,000
Age
Control Areas18-24 25-4950-59
Basic Model302,0001,679,000 614,000
Private/Vol Sectore143,000 625,000251,000
Call Centre177,000833,000 331,000
Total622,0003,137,000 1,196,000


  Notes

  1.  Source: 1996-97 Family Resources Survey.

  2.  Excludes estimates for Clyde Coast and Renfrew and Wolverhampton.


 
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Prepared 14 June 1999