Annex A
STATISTICAL INFORMATION ON THE PILOT AREAS
Table 1
ANNUAL INFLOW ESTIMATES IN ACTION AREAS BY
CLIENT GROUP
| SWFG INFLOW ESTIMATES |
| | |
|
| LP inflow | S+D inflow
| IS other/carer
& widows |
JSA inflow | Total |
| | |
| | |
Action Areas | |
| | | |
Essex SE | 2,500 | 4,500
| 1,000 | 20,000 | 28,000
|
Warwickshire | 3,000 | 6,500
| 1,500 | 19,000 | 30,000
|
Clyde Coast & Renfrew | 3,000
| 7,500 | 1,000 | 30,000
| 41,000 |
Lea Roding | 3,500 | 5,000
| 2,500 | 29,500 | 40,500
|
Total | 11,500 | 24,000
| 6,000 | 98,500 | 139,500
|
+6 per cent JSA not pursued |
| | | 6,000 |
6,000 |
+1 per cent re-directs | 100 |
200 | 100 | 1,000 |
1,500 |
Grand Total | 12,000 | 24,000
| 6,000 | 105,500 | 147,000
|
PRIVATE/VOL SECTOR | |
| | | |
Action Areas | |
| | | |
Suffolk | 3,000 | 6,500
| 1,500 | 32,500 | 43,000
|
North Nottinghamshire | 2,000
| 6,500 | 2,000 | 18,000
| 28,500 |
Leeds | 3,500 | 14,500
| 3,500 | 42,000 | 63,500
|
North Cheshire | 2,500 | 7,000
| 1,000 | 21,000 | 31,000
|
Total | 10,500 | 34,000
| 8,000 | 113,000 | 166,000
|
+6 per cent JSA not pursued |
| | | 7,000 |
7,000 |
+1 per cent re-directs | 100 |
300 | 100 | 1,200 |
1,700 |
Grand Total | 10,800 | 34,500
| 8,000 | 121,100 | 174,400
|
CALL CENTRE | |
| | | |
Action Areas | |
| | | |
Somerset | 2,500 | 7,000
| 1,500 | 22,500 | 33,500
|
Buckinghamshire | 3,000 | 6,000
| 1,500 | 21,500 | 31,500
|
Gwent Borders | 2,000 | 6,000
| 1,000 | 20,000 | 29,000
|
Calderdale and Kirklees | 4,000
| 9,500 | 3,000 | 46,500
| 62,500 |
Total | 11,000 | 28,000
| 6,500 | 110,500 | 156,500
|
+6 per cent JSA not pursued |
| | | 6,500 |
6,500 |
+1 per cent re-directs | 100 |
300 | 100 | 1,200 |
1,600 |
Grand Total | 11,500 | 28,500
| 7,000 | 118,000 | 164,500
|
Total Flows excluding
allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs
| | | |
| |
Total | 33,500 | 86,000
| 20,500 | 322,000 | 462,000
|
Average per variant | 11,000 |
28,500 | 7,000 | 107,500
| 154,000 |
Total Flows (including allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs):
| | | |
| |
Total | 34,000 | 87,000
| 20,500 | 344,500 | 486,000
|
Average per variant | 11,500 |
29,000 | 7,000 | 115,000
| 162,000 |
Notes
1. Estimates rounded to nearest 500 and nearest 100 for
re-directs. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
2. Source: ASD1 Statistical samples. JUVOS 100
per cent count for JSA figures.
Table 2
ANNUAL INFLOW ESTIMATES IN CONTROL AREAS BY CLIENT GROUP
Control Areas
Final Selection |
LP inflow | S+D inflow
| IS other/carer
& widows |
JSA inflow | Total |
Basic Model
Control Areas |
| | | |
|
Surrey | 5,500 | 14,500
| 3,500 | 15,500 | 39,000
|
Wiltshire | 4,000 | 7,000
| 1,500 | 24,000 | 37,000
|
Tayside | 3,000 | 6,000
| 1,000 | 30,500 | 40,000
|
Greater Manchester
Pennine | 5,500
| 17,000 | 1,500 | 50,500
| 75,000 |
Total | 18,000 | 44,000
| 8,000 | 121,000 | 190,500
|
+6 per cent JSA not pursued |
| | | 7,500 |
7,500 |
+1 per cent re-directs | 200 |
400 | 100 | 1,300 |
2,000 |
Grand Total | 18,000 |
44,500 | 8,000 | 129,500
| 200,000 |
Private/Vol Sector
Control Areas
| | | |
| |
Dorset | 2,000 | 8,000
| 1,000 | 28,500 | 39,500
|
North Staffordshire | 3,000 |
10,000 | 2,500 | 26,000
| 41,500 |
Northumbria | 4,000 | 10,000
| 2,500 | 18,000 | 34,500
|
Wolverhampton | 3,000 | 5,500
| 1,000 | 18,000 | 28,000
|
Total | 12,000 | 34,000
| 7,000 | 91,000 | 144,000
|
+6 per cent JSA not pursued |
| | | 5,500 |
5,500 |
+1 per cent re-directs | 100 |
300 | 100 | 100 |
1,500 |
Grand Total | 12,000 |
34,000 | 7,000 | 97,500
| 151,000 |
Call Centre
Control Areas |
| | | |
|
W. Sussex | 3,000 | 6,500
| 2,000 | 23,000 | 34,000
|
Cambridgeshire | 2,500 | 6,500
| 1,500 | 27,000 | 37,500
|
Norwich | 4,000 | 7,000
| 1,500 | 32,500 | 45,000
|
Hull | 2,500 | 11,000
| 2,000 | 37,500 | 52,500
|
Total | 11,500 | 30,500
| 7,000 | 120,500 | 169,000
|
+6 per cent JSA not pursued |
| | | 7,000 |
7,000 |
+1 per cent re-directs | 100 |
300 | 100 | 1,300 |
1,800 |
Grand Total | 11,500 |
31,000 | 7,000 | 129,000
| 178,000 |
Total Flows excluding allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs
| | | |
| |
Total | 41,000 | 108,500
| 22,000 | 332,500 | 504,000
|
Average per variant | 13,500 |
36,000 | 7,500 | 111,000
| 168,000 |
Total Flows (including allowance for JSA claims not pursued and re-directs):
| | | |
| |
Total | 41,500 | 109,500
| 22,000 | 356,000 | 529,000
|
Average per variant | 4,000 |
36,500 | 7,500 | 118,500
| 176,500 |
Notes:
1. Estimates rounded to nearest 500 and nearest 100 for
re-directs. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
2. Source: ASD1 Statistical samples. JUVOS 100
per cent count for JSA figures.
Table 3
SWFGUNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND GEOGRAPHICAL TYPE
| | |
| | |
Action Areas | Unemployment rate
| Geographical type | Control Areas
| Unemployment rate | Geographical type
|
| | |
| | |
| | |
| | |
BASIC MODEL | |
| | | |
Essex SE | 4.1 | OHO
| Surrey | 4.1 | OHO
|
Warwickshire | 4.9 | Medium city II
| Wiltshire | 3.1 | Medium city II
|
Clyde Coast and Renfrew | 7.3
| OHO | Tayside | 6.8
| OHO |
Lea Roding | 7.3 | Medium city I
| Greater Manchester Pennine | 8.8
| Medium city I |
PRIVATE/VOL SECTOR | |
| | | |
Suffolk | 5.5 | OHO
| Dorset | 5.6 | Rural
|
North Nottinghamshire | 5.3 |
Medium city II | North Staffordshire
| 4.1 | Medium city II |
Leeds | 9.0 | Medium city II
| Northumbria | 7.2 | OHO
|
North Cheshire | 7.8 | Medium city I
| Wolverhampton | 6.4 | Medium city I
|
CALL CENTRE | |
| | | |
Somerset | 4.3 | Rural
| West Sussex | 3.3 | Rural
|
Buckinghamshire | 3.3 | Medium city II
| Cambridgeshire | 4.0 | Medium city II
|
Gwent Borders | 6.0 | Medium city I
| Norwich | 6.2 | OHO
|
Calderdale and Kirklees |
6.1
|
Medium city I | Hull |
5.8 | Medium city I |
Notes:
1. Source: ASD2 Cluster analyses for geographical
type. Claimant count and Census data for Unemployment rates.
GEOGRAPHICAL TYPEEXPLANATION
OF CATEGORIES
1. The BA districts are broken down into geographical
types, based on cluster analysis undertaken by ASD2. This places
areas into groups which have similar characteristics.
2. The data used in the cluster analysis was the 1999
Census. The analysis was based on five variables found to be important
in determining geographical type:
percentage of the population aged 18-24;
percentage of households with dependent children;
percentage of residents born in New Commonwealth;
percentage of owner occupied dwellings;
percentage of population aged over pension age.
3. The analysis places BADs with similar values of these
variables into the same geographical type or cluster. Each cluster
is given an overall value depending on the values found for the
five variables listed above. This gives an indication of how similar
or different the clusters were. In general the London Area had
the most extreme values for the variables chosen. They had the
highest percentage aged 18-24, the lowest percentage with dependent
children, the highest percentage residents born in the New Commonwealth,
the lowest percentage owner occupiers and the lowest percentage
over pension age. The Rural Area cluster tended to have high values
where the London Area had low ones and vice-versa. The other clusters
tend to follow a progression within each census variable, but
this was not always the case. The clusters used, and the average
values found were:
London Areas | 1.00 |
Northern City | 1.50 |
Medium Sized City Area I | 2.16
|
Medium Sized City Area II | 3.91
|
Older Home Owning Areas (OHO) | 3.81
|
Rural Areas | 4.71 |
Table 4
SWFG CLIENT GROUPS BY SEX
(I) ACTION
AREAS
Client Group | Total
| Male | Female |
Percentage
Male | Percentage
Female
|
LP inflow | 33,500 | 1,500
| 32,000 | 5 | 95
|
Sick and Disabled | 86,000 |
51,500 | 34,500 | 60
| 40 |
IS other/Carers/Widows | 205,000
| 8,500 | 12,000 | 41
| 59 |
JSA | 322,000 | 226,000
| 96,000 | 70 | 30
|
Total | 462,000 | 288,000
| 174,000 | 62 | 38
|
| | |
| | |
(II) CONTROL
AREAS
Client Group | Total
| Male | Female |
Percentage
Male | Percentage
Female
|
LP inflow | 41,000 | 1,000
| 40,000 | 3 | 97
|
Sick and Disabled | 108,500 |
62,500 | 46,000 | 58
| 42 |
IS other/Carers/Widows | 22,000
| 8,500 | 13,500 | 38
| 62 |
JSA | 332,500 | 233,500
| 99,000 | 70 | 30
|
Total | 504,000 | 305,500
| 198,500 | 61 | 39
|
| | |
| | |
(III) TOTAL
ANNUAL GB INFLOW
ESTIMATES
Client Group | Total
| Male | Female |
Percentage
Male | Percentage
Female
|
LP inflow | 337,000 | 21,000
| 316,000 | 6 | 94
|
Sick and Disabled | 936,000 |
583,000 | 352,500 | 62
| 38 |
IS other/Carers/Widows | 245,000
| 100,500 | 144,500 | 41
| 59 |
JSA | 3,250,000 | 2,275,000
| 975,000 | 70 | 30
|
Total | 4,768,000 | 3,023,500
| 1,744,000 | 63 | 37
|
| | |
| | |
Notes
1. Estimates rounded to nearest 500. Totals may not sum
due to rounding.
2. It is not possible to provide a gender breakdown for
the individual action and control areas due to small sample sizes.
3. The JSA gender breakdown for the action and control
areas has been estimated using the GB breakdown.
4. Source: Cross benefit analyses of ASD1 statistical
samples.
Table 5
WORKING AGE POPULATION (18-59) IN SWFG AREAS BY SEX
BASIC MODEL
Action Areas | Male
| Female | Total
|
Essex SE | 267,000 | 249,000
| 516,000 |
Warwickshire | 297,000 |
282,000 | 579,000 |
Clyde Coast & Renfrew | n/a
| n/a | n/a |
Lea Roding | 232,000 | 254,000
| 486,000 |
| | |
|
PRIVATE/VOL
SECTOR
Action Areas | Male
| Female | Total
|
Suffolk | 245,000 | 211,000
| 455,000 |
North Nottinghamshire | 169,000
| 157,000 | 326,000 |
Leeds | 226,000 | 252,000
| 477,000 |
North Cheshire | 186,000 |
172,000 | 357,000 |
| | |
|
CALL CENTRE
Action Areas | Male
| Female | Total
|
Somerset | 246,000 | 218,000
| 464,000 |
Buckinghamshire | 361,000 |
310,000 | 671,000 |
Gwent Borders | 313,000 |
314,000 | 628,000 |
Calderdale and Kirklees | 160,000
| 152,000 | 312,000 |
| | |
|
CONTROL AREAS
BASIC MODEL
Control Areas | Male
| Female | Total
|
Surrey | 737,000 | 725,000
| 1,462,000 |
Wiltshire | 188,000 | 183,000
| 371,000 |
Tayside | 150,000 | 142,000
| 292,000 |
Greater Manchester | 230,000
| 240,000 | 471,000 |
Pennine | |
| |
| | |
|
PRIVATE/VOL
SECTOR
Control Areas | Male
| Female | Total
|
Dorset | 201,000 | 182,000
| 383,000 |
North Staffordshire | 155,000
| 154,000 | 309,000 |
Northumbria | 176,000 | 153,000
| 329,000 |
Wolverhampton | n/a | n/a
| n/a |
| | |
|
CALL CENTRE
Control Areas | Male
| Female | Total
|
W Sussex | 154,000 | 146,000
| 300,000 |
Cambridgeshire | 221,000 |
206,000 | 427,000 |
Norwich | 166,000 | 149,000
| 315,000 |
Hull | 145,000 | 154,000
| 299,000 |
Notes:
1. Source: 1996-97 Family Resource Survey.
2. Figures for Clyde Coast and Renfrew and Wolverhampton
not available.
Table 6
POPULATION IN SWFG AREAS BY AGE
| Age |
Action Areas | 18-24
| 25-49 | 50-59
|
Basic Model | 195,000 | 1,002,000
| 384,000 |
Private/Vol Sector | 193,000
| 1,018,000 | 405,000 |
Call Centre | 224,000 | 1,305,000
| 545,000 |
Total | 612,000 | 3,325,000
| 1,334,000 |
| Age |
Control Areas | 18-24
| 25-49 | 50-59
|
Basic Model | 302,000 | 1,679,000
| 614,000 |
Private/Vol Sectore | 143,000
| 625,000 | 251,000 |
Call Centre | 177,000 | 833,000
| 331,000 |
Total | 622,000 | 3,137,000
| 1,196,000 |
| | |
|
Notes
1. Source: 1996-97 Family Resources Survey.
2. Excludes estimates for Clyde Coast and Renfrew and
Wolverhampton.
|