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Mr. Deputy Speaker (Sir Alan Haselhurst): Order. There is very limited time available for the debate, as I am sure the hon. Gentleman knows, and he really must focus rather more on decommissioning than on the review. I understand the umbilical link between the two, but the order before us tonight is about decommissioning.

Dr. Godman: I am grateful for your gentle ticking off, Mr. Deputy Speaker, but the suspension, the review and decommissioning are inextricably linked. Decommissioning is at the heart of the matter. The review should be concerned almost entirely with decommissioning. The hon. Member for Lagan Valley mentioned General de Chastelain's latest report and what the Taoiseach said in his article in this morning's Irish Times--that the last two paragraphs of General de Chastelain's report were of deep significance for the process of decommissioning. I hope that the review will focus on that and will work very closely with General de Chastelain and his colleagues.

I sincerely hope that the 22 May deadline and the deadline in the order--23 May--are adhered to, but very many people now have a much more pessimistic view than I have, and believe that there may be readjustments. All I can tell the Minister and his officials is: I certainly hope not, and let us have decommissioning by 22 May.

11.58 pm

Mr. Lembit Öpik (Montgomeryshire): As we approach the second anniversary of the Good Friday agreement, it is worth remembering that today is the 10th birthday of the British-Irish Inter-Parliamentary Body, which has sought to build links between Westminster and Dublin. It is not a great birthday present to that body that we are in our present position. However, in the wider picture of things, I think that few who serve on it would have expected us to be this far down the track to achieving a long-term, stable peace.

While the suspension order is a step back, on the positive side, as the hon. Member for Lagan Valley (Mr. Donaldson) reminds us, we must have very clear

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expectations of what will happen in the next three months, and the order makes those expectations even more specific, by extending the amnesty to 23 May and thereby making the decision to decommission arms even more straightforward and clear-cut than it would otherwise have been.

Earlier today, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland addressed the BIIPB, and the implication of his statement was that the suspension could be pretty short-lived as long as we get some significant movement in the short term on decommissioning. In that context, we need to remember that the amnesty is a tool to get rid of the violence by getting rid of the guns. There is much symbolism involved in that, which we discussed only the other day in the House, but we must recognise that symbolism is important. The order places even more onus on the paramilitaries on both sides to deliver the goods.

The Northern Ireland Arms Decommissioning Act received Royal Assent on 27 February 1997 and it contained a five-year limit--a backstop--that means that the amnesty cannot be extended beyond February 2002. It is worth remembering that we are discussing the end point to the amnesty, knowing that there is already a timebound maximum period during which it can be re-presented.

This is not the time for retribution or reopening the debate about whether people should be prosecuted when they hand in guns. That is because we are in the endgame of the whole process. We are asking what the easiest way is to get the paramilitaries to decommission their guns while providing confidence for the community as a whole, including the Unionists, that the paramilitaries are serious about that in the short term. The hon. Member for Lagan Valley underlined quite reasonably the nervousness of many moderate Unionists who think that, to date, little has been done to achieve that result.

The second report from de Chastelain and the most recent IRA statement are positive and helpful, but they would have been even more helpful if they had been presented a week ago. I am conscious of the warning issued in the first report of the decommissioning commission, which stated:

"given our understanding of the quantity of arms held by paramilitary groups, and the dispersed nature of their locations, we believe a time will soon be reached beyond which it will be logistically impossible for us to complete our task by 22 May."

In other words, the IRA and other paramilitary bodies need to get going soon if they are to achieve the 22 May deadline, which is the crucial date for decommissioning. It is imperative that the issue is resolved, but resolved by the paramilitaries in whose power it is to provide the kind of commitment that we now expect. If that analysis is correct--I believe that few in the House would disagree with what I have said--22 May is the key date by which we must achieve decommissioning--and the clock is ticking.

One point on which I would take issue with the hon. Member for Lagan Valley is his view--it is perfectly reasonable even though I disagree with it--that, at this point, we should link prisoner releases with decommissioning. The time for that is if the paramilitaries fail to decommission by 22 May, and not at this point.

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I am sure that the mechanics are there to achieve that. We have a difference of view, but it is an issue that we have debated widely in the past.

Mr. Swayne: What does the hon. Gentleman propose we should do if the paramilitaries have not handed in any weapons by 22 May? Does he think that we should extend the amnesty again? What would that do? What possible leverage do we have on this matter?

Mr. Öpik: Let me repeat what I said, because the speakers are clearly not working at the back of the Chamber. I said that we should not impose any kind of sanction on prisoner releases until 22 May.

Mr. Michael Howard (Folkestone and Hythe): Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr. Öpik: I will, but let me clarify my point for the hon. Member for New Forest, West (Mr. Swayne). At this point, we should simply act on the basis of good faith and not try to renegotiate the Good Friday agreement. If on 22 May--the absolute deadline for decommissioning--the paramilitaries have not delivered, all bets are off and we shall have to consider what we do. However, I think that it would be dangerous to link the issues at this stage. The hon. Gentleman is entitled to take a different view, but he should be cautious and he should reread the Good Friday agreement.

Mr. Howard: First, does the hon. Gentleman accept that stopping the release of prisoners would not involve any renegotiation of the Good Friday agreement? Secondly, has he made any assessment of how many prisoners would remain in custody on 22 May if nothing is done to stop the releases between now and then?

Mr. Öpik: The second point is rather trivial because there will not be a huge difference--[Interruption.] Hon. Members on the Opposition Benches behind me are laughing--

Mr. Wilshire: The hon. Gentleman is on the Opposition Benches.

Mr. Öpik: To be absolutely specific and to avoid implicating my colleagues in that comment, I should say that Conservative Members are laughing. Let me remind them that relatively few prisoners will be released between now and 22 May. My response to the perfectly reasonable question asked by the right hon. and learned Member for Folkestone and Hythe (Mr. Howard) is that, for now, we should act in good faith. We should give the paramilitaries absolutely no reason to be able to justify their hesitance about decommissioning at this point by, for example, being hesitant about prisoner releases.

I also believe that the sanctions on prisoner releases that we could impose now are not significantly different from those that we could impose on 22 May, but the crucial point is that if we wait until 22 May to impose sanctions, no one could possibly say that the Government and the House have not given the paramilitaries every opportunity under the sun to decommission. The right

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hon. and learned Gentleman is perfectly entitled to take a different view, but it is for the House to decide who is right.

Mr. Donaldson: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Mr. Öpik: I give way for the last time because I am aware that the clock is ticking.

Mr. Donaldson: Is the hon. Gentleman saying that if on 22 May there has been no decommissioning by the paramilitary organisations, he will support us in urging the Government at that point to halt the early release of terrorist prisoners?

Mr. Öpik: That would depend on the exact situation. The honest answer is that at that point we would have seriously to consider such action. I do not play games in Northern Ireland debates in the House, and in the spirit of honesty I can say that it is possible that I would agree with the hon. Gentleman in those circumstances. The time for that debate will be 23 May, and I am sure that the Government will be asking the same questions. It would be unwise for us to make policy in a speech in a debate, and I cannot therefore give the hon. Gentleman further reassurance. I see that he accepts that, and I am grateful to him for having listened.

The hon. Member for Solihull (Mr. Taylor), who often speaks sensibly and rationally about these issues, rightly said that this is not a game. It is important that we do not start playing games now. The sum total of my remarks, and the Liberal Democrat position, is that we must give the paramilitaries every chance to decommission and we must not give them a single opportunity to say that the Government have reneged on their responsibilities on Northern Ireland, on amnesties and on opportunities to decommission.

Of course the current situation is a setback, but I hope that those in Northern Ireland with the capacity to decommission will view this as a confidence-building measure, because there is scepticism and doubt in the House about whether this is the right action. On balance, I think that it is right. If we pass this order tonight, the message will be simple: the House has done its bit; now it is time for the paramilitaries to do theirs.

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