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5.42 pm
Mr. John Wilkinson (Ruislip-Northwood): We have had a timely debate, if not a well-timed one, as the pre-occupations of most hon. Members are understandably elsewhere. However, the debate is timely in view of the situation around the globe, which makes it plain that the use of military power or the threat of its application is still a key determinant in human affairs.
We see that in the case of Northern Ireland. Our Prime Minister is over in Belfast and must spend a great deal of time on the so-called peace process because the continued possession of armaments by the Irish Republican Army has thwarted the devolution process in a part of our own kingdom. We have seen the application of systematic military power in Chechnya and scorched earth tactics employed by the Russian Federation. We have seen the sabre-rattling against the Taiwanese by the People's Republic of China, and Muslim insurgency in the Philippines currently affecting western tourists.
There is tension and conflict in Kashmir and civil war in the Congo. The situation in Iraq is such that we have to maintain no-fly zones over the northern and southern parts of that country. There are British nationals at risk in Zimbabwe, whom it may become necessary to extricate.
If we look at the scene around the world, it is clearly crucial for the United Kingdom to maintain a war-fighting capability. Anything less would be wholly irresponsible. I am glad that the Secretary of State for Defence laid emphasis on three aspects of our global commitments. He emphasised the need, first, for expeditionary warfare capability, secondly, for a capacity to conduct effective coalition operations, and, thirdly, for the European defence initiative, about which we can argue for some time to come.
The European Helsinki council target to be able to put into the field between 50,000 and 60,000 men by the year 2003, to be deployable within a time scale of two or three months, inspires no confidence. Every major crisis in recent years has required the application of military force at the crucial point in a much shorter time scale. There is no sign that the European countries are prepared to make the dispositions either of men, material or resources to make valid the commitment that was undertaken at Helsinki.
In this connection, it is more crucial than ever that this intergovernmental commitment, as it was rightly described by the Secretary of State, should be underpinned by a European defence and security assembly, which is
intergovernmental in its nature in as much as its members are drawn from national Parliaments and able to put pressure on their national Governments.Therefore, following the unanimous decision of the WEU Assembly in Lisbon that the European defence and security assembly should continue in an interim form on the basis of the WEU Assembly, I hope that Her Majesty's Government will explicitly, clearly and unequivocally support the wish of the WEU Assembly to see itself transformed into the European defence and security assembly, and that the role should not be usurped by the European Parliament on the one hand, or just forgotten on the other.
Many hon. Members in today's debate have correctly stressed the importance of sustainability in operations around the world, and they have cited, for example, the National Audit Office's report on the situation in the Kosovo war when our air forces very nearly ran out of ordnance. If anything can clearly be seen, it is that in the future such overseas operations will have an element of unpredictability with which to contend.
Take the state of affairs today when no fewer than 44 Royal Navy Lynx and 21 Army Lynx helicopters have had to be grounded because of fatigue in the rotor heads. In the Gulf war, sand filters had to be installed in the engines of the Lynx helicopters to enable them to operate in the terrain. Also in the Gulf war, the serviceability rate of the Challenger 1 tanks' engines was abysmal.
We should also remember the effect of delays on entry into service. For example, the delay in the mid-life update of the Tornado led to Harrier aircraft having to be used in the initial stages of the Kosovo war when the preference would have been for Tornados.
If we plan for a logistic support system based on the principle of just-in-time, the likelihood is that, in reality, it will be just too late for the armed forces in the field to obtain the spares and the supplies that they so badly need.
I understand the rationale for the Treasury to require a second look at certain key procurement programmes. As has been argued in the debate, with such small armed forces at our disposition in the UK, it will be crucial for expeditionary warfare to be conducted effectively that they be properly equipped.
Big decisions have been put on hold--in particular the SDR commitment for the Royal Air Force to obtain a short-term heavy lift capacity. The Antonov 124/100 aircraft offers twice the payload and twice the fuselage volume at half the price of the American C-17.
To put it simply, one Antonov 124/100 aircraft took the four Puma helicopters to southern Africa to deal with the emergency caused by the Mozambique floods in one sortie. The operation would have required two C-17s. The cost of chartering the Antonov aircraft was just over £200,000; it would probably have cost more than £1 million to charter two C-17s from the United States air force. The cost-effectiveness as well as the capability advantages of the Antonov are therefore significant, especially in view of the future pressures on the defence budgets that we can already foretell.
Those pressures will have to be tackled at a time when defence expenditure is unlikely to increase in line with inflation. Continuing cuts in real-terms defence
expenditure are likely. It is difficult to envisage the Treasury abandoning the efficiency savings that it is currently imposing on the Ministry of Defence.It is crucial that big procurement decisions on heavy lift and the air-to-air missile for the Eurofighter are carefully assessed and wisely made. The Treasury is right to ask for reconsideration of both programmes. An incremental development programme for the air-to-air missile for the Eurofighter was part of the smart procurement process. Hence the attraction of the Raytheon missile, based on enhancement of the existing advanced medium-range air-to-air missile, as opposed to the more futuristic--and perhaps riskier--Meteor missile. It is especially attractive given the gap between the entry into service of the Eurofighter in about 2005 and the availability of an effective air-to-air missile for it. The gap is wider in the case of Meteor than in that of Raytheon. We are therefore considering important decisions.
We must also be aware of the overall context of the industrial policy in which decisions are made. The Treasury has provided £500 million of launch aid for the A3XX airbus. This is the biggest single example of such loan finance in recent years. Is it wise to invest more development funding in the A400M military version of the airbus when the C-130J is coming into service? A second tranche of C-130Js could be procured at a much lower cost than the A400M airbus. That would enable Royal Air Force expeditionary operations to field two types of aircraft.
The Antonov could be flown by Air Foyle or a similar civil operator with reservist crews, with the aircraft on a military register--or not, as required. It can be backed up by the C-130J. A two-ship fleet is logistically much easier to support than a fleet with more types of transport aircraft. The cost-effectiveness benefit needs to be weighed, and I am glad that the Treasury is doing that.
Many equipment systems are crucial to the United Kingdom's capability to engage in expeditionary operations around the world. For example, the Commando Sea Kings need to be replaced for the Royal Marines and a new support helicopter is needed for the Royal Air Force to replace the Puma. I hope that, now we have a Joint Helicopter Command, the same type will fulfil both roles. In a rational world the EH-101 Merlin would do so because the V22 Osprey will cost £40 million. After the latest fatal accident in the United States, it is likely that the Osprey will be delayed further and that the cost of rectification measures will increase its price even more.
Eventually, we shall need a dedicated anti-tank helicopter for the commando brigade, which is losing that integral capability because its Lynxes are going. Supposedly, Apaches from the Army Air Corps will be available, but the aircraft are not marinised and there could be a conflict of interest when the Marines or the Royal Navy need an anti-tank capability for amphibious operations because the generals and the Army Air Corps are likely to say something different.
I argue most strongly for Her Majesty's Government to put the flesh on the bones of the expeditionary warfare strategy set out in the strategic defence review. The objective is clear; the trouble is that they have neither willed the means nor applied the intellectual resources to make the strategy effective.
5.56 pm
Mr. Tam Dalyell (Linlithgow): The point was made about five hours ago that this is the wrong day on which to hold such an important debate because local elections are taking place.
Sir Geoffrey Johnson Smith: Hear, hear.
Mr. Dalyell: The right hon. Gentleman says, "Hear, hear." Curiously, I disagree. I have attended defence debates for 38 years--since my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State was in his pram--and I have rarely listened to such a thoughtful and interesting discussion. I do not complain about the length of the speeches, although I suffer because of that, as Members gave way and said what they thought. This has been a thoroughly worthwhile afternoon. However, I fear that I must truncate my thoughts to a question: are we sure that our forces have sufficient training in a police role to cope with a situation such as Kosovo?
I need not tell my hon. Friend the Minister that soldiers are not policemen. There is a problem here, and the nub of the matter is that there are at least 280,000 Serb refugees from Kosovo. The official Belgrade figure is 350,000. I am told by Radomir Putnikovich and others, who saw those people last week, that they are living in absolutely appalling conditions outside Belgrade and have one hot meal a day, if they are lucky. I was in Serbia in September with my hon. Friend the Member for Halifax (Mrs. Mahon), who has since made another visit with my hon. and learned Friend the Member for Medway (Mr. Marshall-Andrews). This is a human problem and the only way to resolve it is to allow the refugees back into Kosovo. However, they cannot return at the moment.
My hon. Friend the Minister will correct me if I am wrong, but I understand that the Kosovo Liberation Army has got its way and is in control of the situation. What is happening to United Nations resolution 1244? What safety is being provided by all those KFOR resources for non-Albanian peoples such as the Roma, the Serbs and the gypsies and, indeed, for Albanians who have in any way fallen foul of the KLA and are less then enthusiastic about it? It is extraordinary: we have put in all those dedicated troops, but how much can they do?
Specifically, although I do not expect my hon. Friend to answer tonight, will he turn his attention to what happened on 17 April at the village of Bijelo Polje, which was razed to the ground? According to the information that we have, 237 Serbs were slaughtered in appalling circumstances.
What have our forces been able to do? I hasten to say that that is not an implied criticism of the forces. It so happens that the regiment in which I did my national service, and with which I have maintained friendly contacts for all these years, is at the sharp end. I do not claim that the information is anything more than anecdotal, and certainly there has been no impropriety; but there is a problem. How is it possible to create the conditions for achievement of the objective for which the west went to war--namely, an end to ethnic cleansing?
I think it behoves us all to be constructive. Because my speech must be truncated, I will leave it at this. Some of us think that the only way forward is the establishment of a peace and reconciliation commission such as the one that produced such marvellous results in South Africa.
In the view of a Norwegian professor who addressed a large meeting in this building last night organised by some of us, we shall otherwise have to wait for 134 years--that being the average time for which Ottoman Turks and the other conquerors held the area. How long has NATO to stay there? I suspect that it will stay there not just for my lifetime, but for the lifetime of the youngest Member in the Chamber. That is the nature of the commitment.Having been to Bosnia two years ago, and having opposed--along with Julian Amery--any involvement in Yugoslavia, I must say now that it would be irresponsible to withdraw, because we know the bloodbath that would ensue. Indeed, it would be irresponsible not to have heavy armour there, because otherwise some of our soldiers would be taken hostage, as a number of sappers were. I do not pretend that there is any easy answer, but a real problem is involved in expecting soldiers--however talented they may be in their profession--to move to another very difficult profession, and become policemen in a deeply unstable and mutually hostile society.
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