Annex A
Table 1
AMS—ESTIMATES OF EU15 AGGREGATE MEASURE
OF SUPPORT: WITH AGENDA 2000
MILLION EURO Overview: If "blue
box" direct payments continue to be excluded from the AMS
calculation the EU is expected to remain broadly within 50-60
per cent of the Uruguay Round domestic support ceiling over the
forecast period. However, including these direct aids is estimated
to push the EU to more than 90 per cent (within roughly 5 billion)
of the AMS ceiling.
| | 19951
| 19961
| 1997
| 1998
| 1999
| 2000
| 2001
| 2002
| 2003
| 2004
| 2005
| 2006
| 2007
| 2008
| 2009
| 2010
|
Total price
support | 33,716
| 35,221 | 35,027
| 34,149 | 34,060
| 30,682 | 27,514
| 25,729 | 25,659
| 25,559 | 25,015
| 24,522 | 24,032
| 23,953 | 23,888
| 23,820 |
| —wheat | 2,593
| 2,972 | 2,841
| 3,019 | 3,024
| 2,186 | 1,367
| 1,392 | 1,417
| 1,441 | 1,466
| 1,491 | 1,516
| 1,541 | 1,566
| 1,591 |
—coarse
grains | 3,528
| 4,202 | 4,372
| 4,087 | 4,042
| 3,136 | 2,280
| 2,304 | 2,329
| 2,353 | 2,377
| 2,401 | 2,426
| 2,450 | 2,474
| 2,499 |
| —rice(a) | 507
| 527 | 527
| 478 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 |
| —white sugar(b) | 5,754
| 5,439 | 5,417
| 5,290 | 5,298
| 5,312 | 5,320
| 5,333 | 5,342
| 5,355 | 5,364
| 5,377 | 5,386
| 5,399 | 5,408
| 5,421 |
| —SMP | 1,782
| 1,727 | 1,680
| 1,723 | 1,714
| 1,759 | 1,822
| 1,794 | 1,734
| 1,672 | 1,477
| 1,287 | 1,113
| 1,058 | 1,006
| 954 |
| —butter | 4,210
| 4,371 | 4,334
| 4,362 | 4,357
| 4,402 | 4,464
| 4,436 | 4,380
| 4,323 | 3,968
| 3,628 | 3,292
| 3,251 | 3,208
| 3,164 |
| —beef | 13,962
| 14,080 | 13,953
| 13,288 | 13,291
| 11,554 | 9,928
| 8,138 | 8,125
| 8,081 | 8,029
| 8,005 | 7,966
| 7,923 | 7,893
| 7,859 |
| —olive oil(c) | 1,380
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 |
Other AMS
support(d) (e)
| 13,811 | 12,924
| 12,037 | 11,150
| 10,264 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
|
| Total AMS | 47,527
| 48,145 | 47,064
| 45,300 | 44,324
| 40,059 | 36,891
| 35,106 | 35,036
| 34,936 | 34,392
| 33,899 | 33,409
| 33,330 | 33,265
| 33,197 |
| GATT ceiling | 78,672
| 76,370 | 74,067
| 71,764 | 69,462
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 |
| Headroom | 31,145
| 28,225 | 27,003
| 26,464 | 25,138
| 27,100 | 30,268
| 32,053 | 32,123
| 32,223 | 32,767
| 33,260 | 33,750
| 33,829 | 33,894
| 33,962 |
"Blue box"
payments
| 20,846 | 22,545
| 21,372 | 21,475
| 21,750 | 23,217
| 25,576 | 26,913
| 26,911 | 26,908
| 27,876 | 28,863
| 29,839 | 29,837
| 29,835 | 29,833
|
Illustrative
headroom with "blue
box"
payments
| 10,300 | 5,680
| 5,631 | 4,989
| 3,388 | 3,883
| 4,692 | 5,140
| 5,212 | 5,315
| 4,891 | 4,397
| 3,911 | 3,992
| 4,059 | 4,129
|
NOTES:
1 The Commission has recently submitted revised total AMS
estimates for 1995 and 1996 of 50 and 51 billion euro respectively.
(a) 15 per cent reduction in the rice intervention price
take place independently of Agenda 2000.
(b) No reductions in sugar quotas are assumed to take place.
Export commitments are likely to necessitate quota cuts to prevent
intervention stock accumulation.
(c) The olive oil regime is assumed to be unchanged from
1998-99.
(d) Comprises Equivalent Measures of Support (85 per cent)
and other product specific AMS (15 per cent). Equivalent commitments
cover budgetary outlays on horticulture, viniculture and some
textile regimes. Falls from 1995 to 2000 due to reform of the
fruit and vegetables regime, and assumed constant thereafter.
(e) The baseline included an AMS of around 1.2 becu per year
for Sheepmeat, but this was not included in the Commission's AMS
estimate and is therefore excluded from this total.
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