Select Committee on Agriculture Minutes of Evidence


Annex A

Table 2

GAP BETWEEN LANDED AND EU INSTITUTIONAL PRICES

(a) —following complete implementation of GATT commitments and Agenda 2000

TARIFF RATE AT FINAL BOUND TARIFF


World price level:
"Low" forecast(d)
"High" forecast(d)

Common Wheat(b)
55%
55%
Maize(b)
55%
55%
Barley(b)
55%
55%
Rice(c)
44%
44%
White Sugar
12%
16%
SMP
55%
75%
Butter
47%
54%
Beef
62%
79%
Sheepmeat
10%
33%
Pigmeat
6%
23%
Eggs
19%
59%
Poultry
8%
26%


  (a)  As percentage of institutional price in forecast year (or estimated market price for intensive livestock products and sheepmeat). Landed price equals world price plus maximum allowable tariff under the GATT accord (including safeguard levies calculated based on external reference prices, if applicable).

  (b)  Cereal landed prices are constrained at the maximum of 155 per cent of the intervention prices.

  (c)  Both scenarios include 15 per cent cut in intervention price by year 1999-2000 from 1996-97 levels agreed by the Council of Ministers. Landed prices of husked indica rice are constrained at 180 per cent of the intervention price. For this analysis the intervention price is converted from paddy to husked equivalent.

For milled rice imports, MAFF estimates that the "gaps" are 23 per cent and 36 per cent for the low and high world price scenarios respectively.

  (d)  Where available "high" and "low" forecast based on range of estimates by various forecasting agencies, except for eggs which is based on +/-20 per cent of a central forecast. Outside forecasts used are the 1999-2007 World Agricultural Outlook (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute), and the 1999-2004 OECD Agricultural Outlook.


 
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