III. AFTER SEATTLE - THE NARROW ROUND
Table 2: AMS - Estimates of EU 15 Aggregate
Measure of Support: with Agenda 2000
| MILLION EURO
| Overview: If 'blue box' direct payments continue to be excluded from the AMS calculation the EU is expected to remain broadly within 50-60% of the Uruguay Round domestic support ceiling over the forecast period. However, including these direct aids is estimated to push the EU to more than 90% (within roughly 5 billion euro) of the AMS ceiling.
|
| | 19951
| 19961 |
1997 | 1998
| 1999 | 2000
| 2001 | 2002
| 2003 | 2004
| 2005 | 2006
| 2007 | 2008
| 2009 | 2010
|
| Total price support
| 33,716 | 35,221
| 35,027 | 34,149
| 34,060 | 30,682
| 27,514 | 25,729
| 25,659 | 25,559
| 25,015 | 24,522
| 24,032 | 23,953
| 23,888 | 23,820
|
| - wheat
| 2,593 | 2,972
| 2,841 | 3,019
| 3,024 | 2,186
| 1,367 | 1,392
| 1,417 | 1,441
| 1,466 | 1,491
| 1,516 | 1,541
| 1,566 | 1,591
|
| - coarse grains
| 3,528 | 4,202
| 4,372 | 4,087
| 4,042 | 3,136
| 2,280 | 2,304
| 2,329 | 2,353
| 2,377 | 2,401
| 2,426 | 2,450
| 2,474 | 2,499
|
| - rice(a)
| 507 | 527
| 527 | 478
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
| 430 | 430
|
| - white sugar(b)
| 5,754 | 5,439
| 5.417 | 5,290
| 5,298 | 5,312
| 5,320 | 5,333
| 5,342 | 5,355
| 5,364 | 5,377
| 5,386 | 5,399
| 5,408 | 5,421
|
| - SMP
| 1,782 | 1,727
| 1,680 | 1,723
| 1,714 | 1,759
| 1,822 | 1,794
| 1,734 | 1,672
| 1,477 | 1,287
| 1,113 | 1,058
| 1,006 | 954
|
| - butter
| 4,210 | 4,371
| 4,334 | 4,362
| 4,357 | 4,402
| 4,464 | 4,436
| 4,380 | 4,323
| 3,968 | 3,628
| 3,292 | 3,251
| 3,208 | 3,164
|
| - beef
| 13,962 | 14,080
| 13,953 | 13,288
| 13,291 | 11,554
| 9,928 | 8,138
| 8,125 | 8,081
| 8,029 | 8,005
| 7,966 | 7,923
| 7,893 | 7,859
|
| - olive oil(c)
| 1,380 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
| 1,903 | 1,903
|
| Other AMS support(d) (e)
| 13,811 | 12,924
| 12,037 | 11,150
| 10,264 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
| 9,377 | 9,377
|
| Total AMS |
47,527 | 48,145
| 47,064 | 45,300
| 44,324 | 40,059
| 36,891 | 35,106
| 35,036 | 34,936
| 34,392 | 33,899
| 33,409 | 33,330
| 33,265 | 33,197
|
| GATT ceiling | 78,672
| 76.370 | 74.067
| 71.764 | 69.462
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 | 67,159
| 67,159 |
| Headroom | 31,145
| 28,225 | 27,003
| 26,464 | 25,138
| 27,100 | 30,268
| 32,053 | 32,123
| 32,223 | 32,767
| 33,260 | 33,750
| 33,829 | 33,894
| 33,962 |
| 'Blue box' payments
| 20.846 | 22,545
| 21,372 | 21,475
| 21,750 | 23,217
| 25,576 | 26,913
| 26,911 | 26,908
| 27,876 | 28,863
| 29,839 | 29,837
| 29,835 | 29,833
|
Illustrative headroom with
'blue box' payments'
blue box' payments
| 10,300 | 5,680
| 5,631 | 4,989
| 3,388 | 3,883
| 4,692 | 5,140
| 5,212 | 5,315
| 4,891 | 4,397
| 3,911 | 3,992
| 4,059 | 4,129
|
NOTES
| 1. | The Commission has recently submitted revised total AMS estimates for 1995 and 1996 of 50 and 51 billion euro respectively.
|
| (a) | 15% reduction in the rice intervention price takes place independently of Agenda 2000.
|
| (b) | No reductions in sugar quotas are assumed to take place. Export commitments are likely to necessitate quota cuts to prevent intervention stock accumulation.
|
| (c) | The olive oil regime is assumed to be unchanged from 1998/99.
|
| (d) | Comprises Equivalent Measures of Support (85%) and other precut specific AMS (15%). Equivalent commitments cover budgetary outlays on horticulture, viticulture and some textile regimes. Falls from 1995 to 2000 due to reform of the fruit and vegetables regime, and assumed constant thereafter.
|
| (e) | The baseline included an AMS of around 1.2 becu per year for Sheepmeat, but this was not included in the Commission's AMS estimate and is therefore excluded from this total.
|
Source:
MAFF, Ev. p. 79.
|
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