Examination of witnesses (Questions 480
- 499)
TUESDAY 27 JUNE 2000
PROFESSOR CHRIS
GREEN OBE, DR
PETER JOHNSTON,
MR JOHN
WALLACE, DR
ALAN CLARK
and MR ROBERT
FOX
480. You also did work with parents and I was
interested to see in the analysis in Chapter 7 that there was
a difference on this issue between areas like Babergh, which is
a district which tends to have more hotspots, although it is variable,
and areas like Thurrock and Norwich. You state under Norwich,
"Finance, a huge issue is many deprived households. Loan
structure locks into a culture of a fear of debt". You used
the same term in the Thurrock district, "There is certainly
a concern of financial effect on those from lower socioeconomic
groups, often immediate monetary priorities". Again, the
concern of financial effect on those from lower socioeconomic
groups, both in Thurrock and Norwich. Can you comment on that
and whether you think, although it does not relate directly to
areas of lower affluence, that that may be a factor in the coldspots
versus hotspots difference.
(Professor Green) The answer in short to that is yes.
If you look at the summary in Appendix 2 you can also relate that
to deprivation. There is a table by district, which shows Babergh,
and so on. That would also support your interpretation of that.
In respect of some of the answers that were given, if you look
at Babergh, it was one of the two hotspots. Certainly in terms
of geo-demographic mix, a dormitory for Ipswich but a high affluence
area. That may well have a significant effect in terms of the
relevance of debt. We certainly found in that area that more youngsters
went away if they were going into higher education, which they
did. They also went away because it is a hotspot.
481. Finally, you hinted, as indeed the national
figures suggest, in England and Wales, at least, there is a decrease.
Certainly when demography is accounted for there is quite a bigger
decrease in the number of applications. I do not know whether
you have any data about whether that decrease applies more in
coldspot areas, whether the coldspot areas are getting relatively
cooler or, at least, less affluent people are applying there or
whether that is hard to fasten in on.
(Professor Green) We have just done an analysis for
this last year, so we have information you do not have in your
report.
(Mr Fox) The actual participation for 1998, because
the report is based on the 1997 year of entry, the figures for
1998 show a decrease actually in participation by UCAS acceptances
for 1998, over 1997, regionally. However, nationally the figure
has gone up. The coldspots, in general, have remained cold but
there are three districts that were listed as coldspots last year
that are no longer coldspots. The definition of a coldspot being
a district which has a UCAS acceptance rate below the regional,
four county average. Three of those districts are no longer coldspots.
However, the actual participation has gone down. The hotspots
are no longer hotspots, they do not have an acceptance rate above
the national average.
Chairman
482. How many hotspots are there?
(Mr Fox) There were two hotspots last year, Babergh
and Mid-Suffolk. They are no longer hotspots. We have zero in
the eastern region. There is not one Local Government District
which has a higher than national average UCAS acceptance rate.
There are ten below regional average, as apposed to thirteen last
year. You have to bear in mind the regional average has gone down.
The definition of a coldspot being one that is below the regional
average.
Dr Harris
483. What is more interesting is the micro effect,
because the districts cover a whole load of different wards, which
may be hot or cold. Do you have any data on the application rates
for the UCAS available post coding data? Is that analysis that
is still to be done?
(Mr Fox) The 1997 analysis is all included in the
report, in Appendix 1. The data for 1998 is still in the process
of being made available. If you wish to have an update for 1998
we can forward it to you, probably within a week.
484. That would be helpful.
Chairman
485. The Committee would be grateful for that.
Could you also give us a fuller interpretation, based on research,
as to why you think that fall in applications occurred?
(Professor Green) To give you the figures, I will
not give you all of them, the national figure has risen from 5.35
to 5.65 in 1997/1998 to 1998/1999. That is a percentage total
of the population, 18 to 25.
(Dr Johnston) Full-time entry. We have to remember
this, we are getting one picture, it is full-time students. If
you think that widening participation may be achieved through
part-time study you have to be very careful with this factor.
(Professor Green) In each of the counties we are citing
the rate has gone down, which suggests either we are doing our
research wrongly or we are have having a negative effect.
486. What is the general condition of the eastern
region? Those outside see this, as I said before, as a very dynamic
region. Perhaps, there are lots of jobs bubbling away in the eastern
region, giving these kids reasonably high salaries quickly. That
can make a very significant difference. People are diverted into
other parts.
(Professor Green) One of the things we noticed in
the part-time studies was when the employment level goes up the
part-time registrations fall down. That is what we have noticed.
It is the part-time registrations that will fall, I am not sure
that the full-time will as well.
Mr Marsden
487. That does suggest that you have, even at
that early stage, you certainly have it at mature student stage,
two distinct sets of motivation for going to university. One is,
if you like, the quasi idea listed, of broadening your horizons,
your self-esteem, and all the rest of it. The other is, to put
it at its crudest, an exchange of time and attention for money.
If I sit and go through these courses that I may not be that wild
about for three years at the end of it what I will get will boost
my earning power. If that is the case, how are we ever going to
devise strategies to address that second group of people, other
than that of inducing or experiencing bad times economically?
(Dr Johnston) This is where we come back to the link,
to point to the mature students. There has been a whole experience
of people who do go through this phase as youngsters. Remember,
we are looking at 18 to 25 year olds. Quite a few people start
looking again at what they are doing with their life, this is
mature returners. If you are looking at the participation rate
by those under 25, a lot of these people will come in but they
are not coming in now. I think you are quite right, in areas where
there is easy employment, easy money to have the life-style they
want they go off and do that and they are postponing—
488. Does that have implications for strategies
that we may adopt for increasing participation? Are you bashing
your head against a brick wall with those people?
(Professor Green) It feels like it at times, Chairman.
There are some universities, I am quite sure, that would be happy
to take the second group that Gordon was referring to. There are
other universities that have made it their mission to concentrate
on the former group. They are the ones—and I think you can
see a number of them around this table—that are committed
to the former group, if I remember the groups correctly. It is
going to be hard work. It is going to take time and it is going
to take financial resource.
Chairman
489. Something that is not coming out all that
clearly, from what I have heard so far, is what is the term out
there in the eastern region that has identified itself as a talent
in terms of getting, presumably, good GCSEs and good A-levels
but are not proceeding to higher education and certainly not proceeding
to the universities in the region? I can see that there may be
under-performance in terms of working and those who do not do
that well in GCSEs and do not do marvellously in A-level. What
are we losing in terms of the talent that is easily identified
in terms of registering well in both those steps? Is there evidence
of those young people choosing the option of a quick income and
a easy job rather than going to HE?
(Professor Green) From the research we could not give
you that information because clearly that decision may be taken
at the time when they get their A-level or GNVQ results, we did
not cover that period. If you take the schools that we sampled,
I think that is something that we can provide you with our considered
view on, with the additional information we are giving you. I
think we need to do that because you have raised a very pertinent
question, which is talent wastage. I think we all have views.
If we have anything to go by it would be the children to university.
If we take that as a microcosmic view of what is going on, there
is only seven centres, and we have other centres who want to get
engaged in that but we do not have the funding for it—this
is not a plea for additional funding, this is the not the purpose
of the Committee. It is fact that if we took a 0.5 per cent increase
in the county rate, that is 1,800 additional students next year
with just half an increase in that first year UCAS figure, that
is a large number of students. We believe, I think, that those
students exist in schools and in colleges, they do exist.
490. That is what I was not quite sure of. If
you look at the hotspots and the coldspots, what was the correlation
between them in terms of GCSE and A-level results?
(Professor Green) We need to give you that analysis.
Chairman: You will need time.
Helen Jones
491. Bearing in mind Gordon Marsden's two groups,
which are fairly broad categories, but we all know what we are
trying to get at with this, did you find any differences between
the type of subject that students opt for compared to their background
for your hotspots and coldspots? Was there a particular groups
of students who were opting for more obviously vocational courses
and a particular group who were opting for broader, subject based
courses or was there no difference?
(Professor Green) Again, I think we will give you
a response on that one. We have done additional work, which is
not included here, where we did a subject analysis. That may be
of help to you because there did appear to be a difference in
terms of the subjects that were being studied.
(Mr Wallace) If I can add something that is not in
the research report, but some data I have on Thurrock. It correlates
to the interest in employment, the last data I had on Thurrock
says, which is 1998, 22 per cent of students from Thurrock went
on to to do A-level studies at sixteen, which is 14 per cent less
than the rest of Essex but equally, conversely, there were 50
per cent, which is 14 per cent more than the rest of Essex, who
did non A-level post-16 study, so GNVQ, NVQ, other courses like
that. There is a huge opportunity with those students, because
it is not just—Peter Johnston made the point earlier—the
A-level students who are entering the UCAS route. One of the most
exciting thing that has happened in FE in the last five years
has been the growth of higher education, particularly non-degree—we
have some degree courses as well—but higher education courses
in the FE environment. That has been a radical change, an exciting
change for FE. Many of those students are now progressing up the
vocational ladder. They come in as day release, then are now coming
on to HNC, HND and moving on to degree level courses, and so on
and so forth. That is a new reservoir of activity in HE. That
is why I come back to my point, it is a whole range of activities
that we need to encourage and develop. That is exciting. That
is very much based on the APU, the Regional University scheme
and other schemes which other universities have. It is particularly
strong in our arrangement with APU, with its twenty-two colleges.
That is making a substantial difference to that.
Chairman
492. Given that, then, can give us the kind
of trigger points for change? You are actually painting quite
an impressive picture in some ways, about how we use our talented
young people in this country and how we exploit their potential.
What is going to really make a difference? What is going to make
a difference in terms of, what I have always called their supply
chain? Do you see under-performing? Perhaps Dr Clark can answer
this, if you see in your region—here you are, one of the
most famous universities in the world—talented young people
with three As, and all of the rest, not applying themselves, not
engaging in higher education how do you approach it? Do you see
that as something of concern? Do you discuss it amongst deans
and heads of college, or do you see yourself as an international
university and that is no concern of yours?
(Dr Clark) We see ourselves as having a regional role
as well as a national and international one. We do tend to approach
these recruitment problems, they are problems for us, on a national
basis, particularly by making contact with teachers in schools.
We run major teacher conferences from time to time, we had one
in March. We think that by putting effort into contact with teachers
we are likely to make a longer term relationship, which is likely
to produce a benefit through the flow of applicants. We also try
to make contact with possible applicants through local events.
We had a big conference in Wembley for students from greater London
and the surrounding areas. We had another big conference at Old
Trafford recently for students in the northwest, because we would
like to see a greater degree of application from some regions.
That is not only based on a statistical study, it is based on
a feeling that there are people who, perhaps, ought to be applying
to us who are not.
493. Do you feel that about your own region?
(Dr Clark) We feel that less about our own region
than some others because for universities that recruit nationally
there is a tendency for students from the home region to apply
differentially to the university, not the other way around. We
are particularly interested in the North of Scotland.
494. Do you ever do surveys of what students
think about you? In other words, why they do not apply.
(Dr Clark) Yes. We did a very interesting study with
Oxford, it was done by the National Foundation for Educational
Research about two years ago. The results were interesting but
they did not guide us to make significant changes. The tended
to support, for the most part, the initiatives that we were currently
taking, to concentrate on contact with schools, colleges, teachers,
and to try to encourage application that way.
Dr Harris
495. What were the findings? Can you remember
what the specific reasons were?
(Dr Clark) I can perfectly properly share the report
with you or provide you with a summary if that would be convenient.
The findings were not at all surprising.
Chairman
496. Is there a view out there? Did you find
anything in that survey which might suggest that people thought
that the way that one applied to your particular university was
not exactly transparent and clear in how you went about it?
(Dr Clark) That was one of the things which I had
hoped might emerge from the survey but it did not. We have made
a lot of efforts.
497. There is a bit of a mystique about Oxford
and Cambridge. I remember when two of my own children were applying
for Cambridge we were told you really had to know a great deal
about which college had been popular last year, do not apply to
that because it would be oversubscribed, and you had to remember
to find out which was less popular. Unless you were really into
the network you had very little knowledge that. Presumably, if
you had strong links with particular schools, either in the private
sector or public sector, they would know more about where to apply
and in which year, than the outsiders who live in the north of
England.
(Dr Clark) My colleagues in the colleges have put
a great deal of effort in, through the things like the teachers'
conferences and the local sessions, and so on, to try to demystify
the process because of a perception that you represented. It is
obviously a bad situation. They have also done other things to
try to demonstrate how the process itself works. They produce
a very good, in my opinion, book about the interview process,
how to prepare for interview. It was interesting to see the feedback
from students at the Manchester conference, where they commented
favourably on how useful this process was. I think that it is
just detailed, hard slog, year after year that is going to make
a difference.
498. If we could have a look at that, that would
be useful.
(Dr Clark) The interview?
499. You did promise us—
(Dr Clark) The NFER.
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