Examination of Witnesses (Questions 780
- 799)
WEDNESDAY 5 JULY 2000
DR COLIN
LUCAS, PROFESSOR
DAVID MARQUAND,
MS JANE
MINTO AND
MR EDWIN
PEEL
Valerie Davey
780. I may differ with the Chair on that particular
item.
(Professor Marquand) I thought you were.
781. The context in which we are talking is
the perception from the outside. A centralised system of application
to Oxford would make life so much easier.
(Dr Lucas) You do not have to apply to a college,
you can apply to Oxford without specifying a college.
782. To my advantage or my disadvantage?
(Dr Lucas) Neither.
Valerie Davey: I do not know that.
Chairman
783. What percentage do?
(Ms Minto) Eight per cent.
784. Eight per cent. Can you explain why that
is so low?
(Ms Minto) I think it is so low because many young
people when they are thinking about Oxford understand that it
is a collegiate university. There is various literature they understand
about the nature of colleges. They find out about colleges from
the website, from the college prospectuses, they take an opportunity
to visit the universities and have a look at the colleges and
they find a college that they would like to apply to. They feel
that they are in control of the application.
785. I have to tell you that the most successful
college in my constituency, Greenhead College, is sending 17 students
to Oxford this year, I think the word is it is very damaging indeed
to apply to the university and not to a college.
(Dr Lucas) I am sad to hear it because I do not think
that is true.
786. Does this not come back though to Valerie's
point, the lack of understanding and knowledge and the mystification.
This Committee, although we hold the University of Oxford in high
regard—I hope we can get this in context—is worried
about this process of demystification, whether it is going on
fast enough and thoroughly enough.
(Dr Lucas) Chairman, I can only stand by what I have
already said. We understand that there are many mystifications
about Oxford.
787. Could you just show us in your literature
where it is clearly pointed out the difference, the advantages,
the disadvantages, the system between applying for Oxford or applying
for a college? Would you let the Committee have that so we can
have a look at it at our leisure?
(Ms Minto) Yes.
Mr St Aubyn
788. Could we also have information on the number
of successful applicants who have just applied to Oxford. I think
you said eight per cent, how many of those are successful who
just applied to Oxford?
(Ms Minto) Yes.
Chairman: Valerie, have you finished your line
of questioning?
Valerie Davey: I think that will help.
Chairman: Evan has been very patient as an Oxford
Member of Parliament.
Dr Harris
789. Yes. I was going to say I should put on
the record that obviously my constituency contains the bulk of
students and some of the people who work at Oxford. I think that
needs to be said. I would like to give you advance notice that
I am interested in what is in your briefcase in terms of that
study on relative success in the two sectors. If during the first
part of my line that could be retrieved, if that is possible.
(Dr Lucas) I left my briefcase in my car, I am afraid.
790. I thought it might be with you at the back.
On the question of success rates, you have explained that there
is a four per cent at least difference this year in the success
rate of applicants from the two sectors. You have explained that
difference, if it is significant, may be due to the provision
of certain subjects where there is less competitive entry in fact
which have most applicants from the independent sector because
they are doing the A levels, so an obvious solution is to sack
your Classics tutors and close the Department, that will bring
the success rate down arguably. A second argument that I have
heard about the differential success rate, indeed at other universities,
is the assisted places scheme whereby a small percentage of people
in the independent sector, which may be a creamed off section
of the state sector who are likely to perform well, perhaps better
than the average state sector candidate because they have already
been creamed off into that, that may account for it as well. But
do you have data on success rates from other universities? Have
you seen whether your four per cent compares with minus four per
cent as the average of the universities which would be more worrying
or ten per cent as an average at the other so-called top universities
which would be more reassuring to you? Is that data available
in other universities?
(Dr Lucas) I do not think that data is available to
us directly. We and Cambridge for years have been the only universities
to publish any statistics at all. This is now more available through
HESA and HEFCE. What I have seen anyway are the performance indicators
that you have been referring to and what I have been concentrating
on is the standard deviation model we have. As far as assisted
places are concerned, we have only got anecdotal evidence or partial
evidence about that because on the whole we do not think you ask
candidates "Are you on an assisted place" because I
think that would fall into the kind of trap that you have been
talking about. For example, I did ask one independent school not
very long ago and it appeared that something just short of a third
of the people they got into Oxfbridge were on assisted places.
I would not want you to generalise on that basis.
791. It is certainly an issue there. Certainly
anecdotally when I was canvassing at the last election I found
plenty of people who did not like my policy on assisted places
and told me so in large numbers in certain colleges. You would
argue that it is certainly worth us as a Committee, I suppose,
looking at what the success rates are for the universities to
see if they will tell us between state schools and independent
schools because that will allow us to put that in context. I see
some documents have arrived and I want to ask about this data
on relative success because it may be the last piece in the jigsaw
which I want to come to in my next question. I just want to clarify,
the data you suggest near enough shows that there is no evidence
that you are taking from those that apply that people from the
independent sector do relatively even slightly worse than people
from the state sector and, therefore, the implication is that
from people that apply your admissions process is getting equivalent
talent from both sectors. It may not be the best, you may not
receive from both sectors the best, hopefully you are not. Is
that the conclusion that is drawable from that work?
(Dr Lucas) Certainly in terms of degree classification
outcome that would be true.
Chairman
792. Does Jane want to add on that?
(Ms Minto) No, that is fine.
Dr Harris
793. You agree. Is that not, therefore, the
last piece in the jigsaw? If you look at the figures, looking
at gross figures, we have 70 per cent of people with the sort
of A levels that are capable of getting access to Oxford and,
indeed, top departments in other universities coming from the
state sector but you are finding only 53 per cent of your offers
are made to those. The gap there is predominantly made up, it
would appear, from a gap in applications rather than a gap in
either success rate or the fact you are taking people with less
talent or less potential from the private sector. If that is correct,
is the conclusion that much more effort needs to go in to getting
the application rate up from the state sector rather than suggesting
that there is a fault at the admissions process?
(Dr Lucas) We certainly believe that we want to get
the application rate up from the state sector. We think the percentage
of our applications does not correlate with the percentage of
people getting three As at A level across the sector.
794. If criticism of the admissions process
as a cause for the discrepancy is unfounded, generally speaking,
and if that deters people from applying, would you say that is
effectively a disaster, as I think Nick St Aubyn was implying,
because you have got an unjustified allegation that is making
the real problem worse because people will feel that no matter
what efforts are being made to encourage them to apply, if they
are not going to get a fair hearing then why should they bother?
(Dr Lucas) That is certainly the image which we spend
a great deal of time and effort trying to correct.
Chairman
795. You are going to have a great advantage
with the statistics that we were told about from UCAS yesterday.
This very sophisticated degree of data where you can track down
to individual postcodes, every region, very sensitively, identifying
where you are getting your applications from, where you are not
getting them from. You will have an enormously useful tool. In
relation to Evan's question, is that going to change your ability
to do the job rather better or is that not going to make a difference?
(Dr Lucas) I would like to see the sophisticated data
that they will give us.
796. It has been out since November.
(Dr Lucas) Oh, yes, I see what you mean. The performance
indicators. There are two aspects to this. What I may type as
perhaps the quick and dirty way of doing it would be simply to
scrutinise all your applicants on the basis of postcode, lose
everything else and then produce the required distribution. I
do not think we would like that.
797. This Committee has never suggested—
(Dr Lucas) No, no, I am addressing the general issue.
798. We have discussed targets and benchmarking
quite thoroughly.
(Dr Lucas) I must not have made myself clear or spoken
incompletely if you thought I was saying that was what the Committee
was interested in. I was not saying that.
799. No, I was not suggesting that. You did
suggest—
(Dr Lucas) I suggested that is one procedure which
the use of postcodes might lend itself to. I think that what postcodes
will allow us to do is to spot areas where we feel that we are
not attracting people from. In fact, of course, in the benchmarks,
the adjusted sector benchmarks for low participant neighbourhoods,
this is the third of the columns you have in there, our standard
deviation is well within the norm. On the basis of that part of
the indicators, we are not out of line in our attraction to low
participant neighbourhoods. Where we are out of line, as we have
said, though in our view in the middle of the leading universities
or whatever you would call them, the Russell Group type of universities,
is in social class.
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