Select Committee on Environment, Transport and Regional Affairs Fifth Report


UK CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME

Climate Change Strategy

20.Before considering the policies and issues in the main sectors, there are some important general points to be made. First, we did not consider all sectors and sources of emissions within this inquiry and have confined our comments to the four main sectors: transport, energy supply, domestic and business. Although we have suggested emissions targets for the agriculture and public sectors, we have not considered these sectors in any detail. Similarly, we have not attempted to be comprehensive in our consideration of policies in the sectors we have analysed but have been guided by witnesses towards the more important or controversial.

21.A more general point about policies is that even within a given sector, there is often a strong interaction between different types of policies. For example, the negotiated agreement between European car manufacturers (ACEA) and the European Commission was reached under a clear threat of regulation to reduce CO2 emissions from cars.[40] Further, it is intended that the agreement be reinforced by fiscal measures and labelling initiatives. Similarly, the UK Climate Change Levy will be levied at a lower rate on those sectors or industries which reach negotiated agreements to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Such a 'portfolio' approach clearly makes sense and it is important that the Government does not become a 'one club player' in any sector.

22.The greatest determinant of the UK climate change strategy is, however, the targets which are to be achieved. As noted above, the 12.5% greenhouse gas target will be relatively easily met whereas the 20% carbon dioxide target will require the implementation of most policies considered in the consultation paper. We also noted that emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to increase between 2000 and 2010 and recommended that the Government recommit itself to the 20% target. Taking measures now to ensure that carbon dioxide emissions start to decrease is critical if the UK is to be in a position to meet longer-term emissions reduction targets. We believe that if the climate change strategy is to permanently reverse the trend of increasing emissions of carbon dioxide, it must provide a clear signal to individuals and industry alike of the need fundamentally to change practices and behaviour.

The Transport Sector

23.Transport is a key sector: it is both the one in which emissions have been increasing most rapidly[41] and in which the greatest potential reduction is envisaged as a result of policy measures. Although some technical measures will help reduce emissions, it is notoriously difficult to change the overall shape of transport behaviour because it is made up of so many complex individual decisions. Nevertheless, this challenge must not be ducked: the Institution of Highways and Transportation noted that "an essential factor is the need to stimulate behavioural and cultural change by transport users."[42] Only by changing the transport decisions people make will we be able to reverse the trend of increasing emissions.

24.The Government appears to be putting great faith in the Transport White Paper, "A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone" delivering emissions reductions. However, many of the measures in the White Paper have not yet been enacted and the scale of impact of many policies is also uncertain.[43] Some of the more radical policies are passed down to local authority level which brings further uncertainty as to what their overall impact will be.[44] We are most concerned that the Government is being over-optimistic about the impact of measures in the transport sector and that a short-fall in this sector could jeopardise the meeting of the Government's emissions reduction targets.

THE FUEL DUTY ESCALATOR

Table 5: Real fuel prices: 1980 to 1999

Year
Real Fuel Price (pence per litre)
1980
71.0
1985
76.2
1990
57.3
1995
61.2
1999
75.6

Notes: Figures supplied by the House of Commons Library. All prices have been re-based to December 1999. For years, 1980 to 1990, price relates to 4-star leaded petrol and from 1995 to 1999, price relates to premium unleaded.

25.In the fuel duty escalator,[45] the transport sector had one of the oldest policy measures aimed specifically at reducing emissions of a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. The previous Government introduced the escalator (increasing the duty rates by a given percentage in real terms each year) in the March 1993 Budget and set the escalator at 3%. This was increased to 5% in the November 1993 Budget and to 6% by the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, in the July 1997 Budget. Although real increases in duty have been made over the last 6 years, these have largely been offset by the low price of oil. Table 5 shows real pump prices during the last twenty years: it is apparent that the real cost of fuel increased by just 6.5% between 1979 and 1999. Nevertheless, during the course of our inquiry, the Government announced the abolition of the automatic escalator and stated that fuel duties would in the future be set on a Budget by Budget basis. The Chancellor also made a commitment that any revenues from real increases in fuel duty will, in future, go straight to a ring-fenced fund for improving public transport and modernising the road network.

26.Witnesses raised a number of issues about the escalator: its impact upon the road haulage industry, its effectiveness in reducing emissions and the use of the revenues raised from it. The Road Haulage Association (RHA) told us of the problems faced by hauliers as a result of the UK taxation regime and reported the results of a study which estimated that a total of 53,000 jobs would be lost as a result of the escalator and other duties.[46] The RHA also suggested that increasing numbers of hauliers were 'flagging out' and registering in a foreign country.[47] Against this, witnesses from Government Departments suggested that other aspects of the tax system in the UK balanced out the higher fuel and vehicle taxes being levied in the UK.[48] They also argued that there was little evidence of 'flagging out' and even that some foreign hauliers were 'flagging in'. Certainly, it is extremely difficult to disentangle the various effects of changes in cabotage, high duty rates on fuel and vehicles and the strong pound upon the shape of the UK haulage industry. The Government has set up the Road Haulage Forum to engage in a dialogue with hauliers' representatives about these issues. We were not able to come to a clear conclusion about the relative position of the UK hauliers against foreign operators but look forward to the publication of analysis from the Road Haulage Forum on this matter.[49] The Transport Sub-committee is now undertaking an inquiry into The Road Haulage Industry and will examine this and other issues in detail.

27.There remains much uncertainty as to the impact that the fuel duty escalator had upon people's behaviour[50] and, therefore, emissions of carbon dioxide. The long-term elasticity of response to transport fuel price increases is particularly uncertain and the effectiveness of the fuel duty increases was, until recently, reduced by falling oil prices. The Treasury told us that "the escalator over the period 1996-2002 would save between 2 to 5 million tonnes of carbon a year by 2010."[51] This is a large range for the estimate of the effect of a well-established policy. We were concerned that the escalator had been in operation for more than 5 years but that its impact was not well understood. Inevitably, the poor understanding of the escalator's impact left the Government open to accusations that fuel duty was simply being used as a milch cow by the Treasury to raise revenues.

28.This point was further emphasised by the way the revenues from the escalator were used. As the escalator was ramped up over the years, the revenue from fuel duties increased from £14 billion in 1994-95 to £23.5 billion in 1999-2000. There has been little additional spend on transport during this period[52] and there was a consensus amongst witnesses that if people were to change their transport behaviour as a result of increased fuel prices, better alternatives were also necessary.[53] The increased revenue from fuel duty would seem to be an ideal source of additional funding for developing a better transport system. As Mr Meacher acknowledged:

    "If people are being expected to pay significantly more, and that is what is involved in a fuel duty escalator, they would be much more willing to do so if the money is used ... in a manner which provides them with an alternative for increased use of their car."[54]

29.Fuel duty is providing large amounts of revenue and is starting to impact more heavily on some car users, particularly the poor, elderly and those in rural areas. The ending of the fuel duty escalator means that these people will no longer face automatic year-on-year increases in their motoring costs. However, the abandonment of the escalator also brings a loss of certainty about future fuel prices and this will undoubtedly mean that people have less incentive to act in a fuel-efficient manner. For example, changes in Vehicle Excise Duty have encouraged people to opt for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars and this message was reinforced by the knowledge that fuel prices would continue to rise in real terms. This reinforcement no longer exists. We agree with the Government that the public and political acceptability of fuel duty increases will be assured only if some of the revenues are recycled to give direct benefits to transport users.[55] We urge the Government to make use of the link which it has created between fuel duty increases and transport spending at the earliest possible opportunity.

OTHER FISCAL MEASURES

30.Other fiscal measures can also have some impact upon transport behaviour, particularly the choice of car. Even within the cars currently on the market, there is a large range of fuel-efficiencies and it has been estimated that the fuel consumption of the fleet could be reduced by 25-30% relatively quickly by people opting for more efficient models.[56] The Government has already started to use the Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) system to persuade people to opt for more energy-efficient models although we did hear evidence about problems of defining which cars qualify for lower rates using engine capacity.[57] As with all tax measures, it is important that categories are clear and not open to challenge. Although there is now some graduation of the VED system, there remains scope for a more radical and sophisticated system.[58] We strongly support the environmental reform of vehicle taxation and recommend that the Vehicle

Excise Duty system be further modified to offer much larger incentives to select more fuel-efficient cars. However, there is strong evidence that annual tax rates will have a limited impact upon purchase choice and that a price differential at the point of purchase will have a much larger effect.[59] For example, a revenue-neutral purchase tax could tax the most fuel-inefficient models and offer rebates to those buying the most efficient cars, thereby providing clearer signals to consumers about the need to reduce fuel use. Such a tax could also be progressive and help to offset the regressive impact of the fuel duty escalator. As such, we recommend that the Government consider methods of providing greater incentives for the purchase of fuel-efficient cars and a system for removing old, inefficient cars from the fleet.

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM NEW CARS

31.The agreement between the European manufacturers' association (ACEA) and the European Commission to reduce emissions from new cars is an important one which, if successful, will make a significant contribution to reducing emissions in the long-term. The agreement means that the average new car in 2008 will emit 25% less carbon dioxide than a new car in 1998. However, some witnesses argued that the Government was being over-optimistic in assessing the impact this could have by 2010.[60] The Institution of Highways and Transportation noted that:

    "The saving due to the EU initiative is estimated at around 17-27 per cent of car fuel consumption. This seems high ... in the period 2008-2012 no more than 20 per cent of cars will be subject to the EU initiative. The effect predicted is what would be expected by about 2020..."[61]

Although the agreement includes a review of progress in 2003, only the final improvement by 2008 is a requirement. As with any agreement on technical progress, it is likely that the majority of the improvement will take place as the final date approaches. Given that the car fleet has a turnover of roughly 10% each year, only a small proportion of the year 2010 fleet is likely to comprise the most fuel-efficient models. As such, we are concerned that the Government is being over-optimistic about the emissions reductions which the ACEA/European Commission agreement will realise by 2010. This could have significant implications for the meeting of national targets. As noted above, we believe that new and more ambitious supporting fiscal measures will be required to make the most of what the agreement can deliver. Labelling of new cars will also play a complementary role. The IHT also commented that the Government has produced rather high estimates of the savings which could result from better enforcement of speed limits.[62] This is a further cause for concern.

AVIATION

32.Aviation forms a hole in international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[63] As the Consultation Paper on the Climate Change Strategy notes, "air transport is a rapidly expanding source of emissions."[64] In April 1999, the IPCC concluded its special report on aviation and the global atmosphere. They concluded that air transport was responsible for around 3.5% of total global warming effect and that the contribution from aircraft arose not only from carbon dioxide but also from nitrogen oxides and other pollutants injected directly into the upper atmosphere. The total contribution of aviation to global warming is predicted to increase rapidly as growth in air transport is running at around 6% per annum and this will outstrip any reduction arising from technical innovation.[65] Fuel for aviation is currently exempt from taxation under the Chicago Convention and this fact, taken with the failure to include emissions from international flights in countries' emissions inventories, means that aviation is an ever growing problem..[66] Progress at an international level on allowing taxation of aviation fuel has been extremely slow and, we believe, will continue to be so.[67] We welcome the Government's commitment to examine the case for taxes on aviation fuel or other climate-related charging measures [68] but believe it is essential that any measures are introduced at a global level.

The Energy Supply Industry

33.The Energy Supply Industry is largely responsible for the reduction in national carbon dioxide emissions which has taken place between 1990 and 2000. The 'dash for gas',[69] greater use of nuclear power and improved efficiency of generation have reduced carbon dioxide emissions in this sector from 63 MtC in 1990 to about 54 MtC in 1996.[70] The rate of change in the fuel mix is now slowing down and carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 will be no lower than 54 MtC.

34.One of the recurring themes in our consideration of this sector was the long investment cycle and lead times involved.[71] Lead times for electricity generating plant vary between 5 and 10 years and the lifespan of the plant can be 30-40 years. In practical terms, there is, therefore, a need for clear long-term signals to be given as soon as possible so that firms can plan and invest in equipment with confidence. This consideration applies across the board for all sources of energy supply and further reinforces the need for a climate change strategy which integrates the year 2010 targets with a longer-term vision of the need for emissions reductions. Although climate change must be a major determinant of energy policy, factors such as diversity of supply should also play a role in long-term energy planning. Advances in Clean Coal Technology make coal a much less environmentally damaging fuel and we anticipate that coal will continue to make a contribution to energy supply along with gas and renewables.

SOURCES OF SUPPLY

35.Early in the course of our inquiry, we took evidence from those representing the nuclear energy industry. Nuclear generation can certainly be presented as a low-carbon source of electricity but it can also be argued that the high costs and unresolved waste issues should rule out the option of building new nuclear capacity.[72] We did not aim to reach any conclusions as to the benefits or otherwise of nuclear energy. Nevertheless, we considered it unlikely that there would be any further investment in new nuclear generating capacity - a point acknowledged by some parts of the nuclear industry.[73] The progressive phasing out of nuclear power is undoubtedly going to make emissions targets after 2010 very challenging.[74] Once again, this re-affirms the need to establish a strategy which extends beyond 2010 and provides clear signals to industry to invest in those sources of energy supply which bring reduced emissions of carbon dioxide. We focus here on the contribution of combined heat and power and renewable sources.

36.One of the principal barriers to the development of greater combined heat and power (CHP) and renewable capacity is the delays and problems of gaining planning permission for new plant.[75] This matter appears to have been rectified for CHP through the review of energy sources for power stations which created a strong planning preference for CHP schemes.[76] It is not clear to us that renewables have been similarly favoured and planning issues are likely to remain a barrier to greater use of renewable sources of generation.

Combined Heat and Power

37.The contribution of combined heat and power (CHP) was the subject of a good deal of the evidence we took on energy supply issues. The Government declares in the consultation document that "we are committed to promoting combined heat and power as an efficient generating technology" and are relying on CHP to reduce emissions. Although many witnesses were in favour of its role in the climate change strategy, some suggested that the Government was being over-optimistic in its projection of the emissions reductions which would result. In particular, the need to match the heat and power demands was seen as limiting the advantages of this technology.[77] The Combined Heat and Power Association countered this argument, noting that a wide range of heat:power ratios could now be designed for.[78] Some witnesses suggested that the emissions advantage of CHP over and above gas-fired power stations was relatively small and the Government put the savings at around 10%.[79] On a purely practical note, it is also recognised that some of the first CHP plants built in the UK suffered from technical problems and did not deliver the projected benefits.[80] Although there are clearly some doubts about CHP, we are confident that an expansion of its use will bring substantial emissions reductions. As such, we are keen that ambitious targets and incentives to promote its use are established.

38.The former Government target for CHP was to reach 5000 megawatts (MW) of installed combined heat and power capacity by the year 2000. Existing capacity amounts to around 3700 MW and the Combined Heat and Power Association (CHPA) noted that new capacity in 1997 amounted to just 170 MW and that there continued to be a number of barriers to the development of CHP: uncertainty in the market, price relativities and some technical and cultural barriers with the Regional Electricity Companies (RECs). The Combined Heat and Power Association noted that a clear strategy to encourage CHP was absent from the consultation document.[81] In addition to the year 2000 target, more ambitious long-term targets were suggested to us. Indeed, the Labour Party policy document In Trust for Tomorrow suggested a target of 10,000 MW by 2010 and the Energy Technology Support Unit found that a CHP capacity of between 10,000 MW and 17,000 MW was cost-effective and realistic.[82] A further 2000 MW of community heating was identified by the Building Research Establishment Energy Conservation Support Unit (BRECSU). We are concerned that policies to ensure the development of combined heat and power are not yet implemented. However, we do welcome the Government's commitment to a target of 10,000 MW capacity by 2010. Given the lead time and the length of investment cycles involved, we urge that the Government work to remove the remaining barriers to CHP as quickly as possible.


40   Q773 Back

41   Ev p33, p52, p165 Back

42   Ev p10 Back

43   Ev p165; Q677 Back

44   Q836 Back

45   The Government was committed to increasing fuel duty on petrol and diesel by 6% above the rate of inflation each year. Back

46   Q719 Back

47   Q716 Back

48   Q989, Q995 Back

49   Q867 Back

50   Ev p55; Q75, Q566-568, Q807 Back

51   Q989 Back

52   Ev p11, p92 Back

53   Q657, Q787, Q812; Ev p165 Back

54   Q869 Back

55   Ev p18 Back

56   Ev p10 Back

57   Q1024 Back

58   Q809 Back

59   Q673, Q811 Back

60   Q795 Back

61   Ev p12 Back

62   Ev p12 Back

63   Ev p6, p52, p84 Back

64   Consultation Paper, paragraph 124 Back

65   Ev p234 Back

66   Q817; Ev p233 Back

67   Ev p236 Back

68   Q857 Back

69   Q534 Back

70   Consultation Paper, paragraph 40 Back

71   Q12, Q436, Q438 Back

72   Ev p58 Back

73   Q45 Back

74   Economic Instruments and the Business Use of Energy, paragraph 22, a Report by Lord Marshall, November 1998 Back

75   Ev p33 Back

76   Ev p61 Back

77   Ev p33, p49 Back

78   Q320 Back

79   Consultation Paper, paragraph 51 Back

80   Q323 Back

81   Ev p60 Back

82   Ev p58 Back


 
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