Supplementary memorandum by the Institution
of Mechanical Engineers (RH21B)
INQUIRY INTO
THE ROAD
HAULAGE INDUSTRY
I am sure you will recall when myself and my
colleagues from the Institution presented evidence to the Inquiry
the Chairman asked Andrew Ives to provide an amplification of
the number of vehicles involved should updating work be contemplated.
I am sorry for the delay that has been caused in the main by pressure
of work on those who have prepared the information.
Andrew Ives has concluded the following messages
are very clear:
(1) 50 per cent of the truck population was
first registered before 1992.
(2) Emissions standards before 1992 were
very mild. In the case of NOX, the figures are twice those of
Euro 1 and 2.5 times those of Euro 2.
(3) A similar situation, but less marked,
applies to HC.
(4) Any policy that would remove pre 1992
vehicles from the roads or any policy to upgrade the engines to
meet latest standards (Euro 3), would have a dramatic impact in
gross emissions in the UK.
(5) A targeted policy concentrating on a
subset of the vehicle categories (yellow on the spreadsheet) would
have almost the same effect (around 80 per cent) as any blanket
approach.
(6) In terms of numbers however, we are talking
about 300,000 vehicles out of the total of 600,000, which is a
huge number to work any upgrade policy. Even at say £5,000
per vehicle (all in cost including loss of earnings), we are talking
about £1,500 million (£1.5 billion). At £3,000
per vehicle, we are still talking £1 billion. Even if we
concentrate on the subset, we are still dealing with say 250,000
vehicles which is still a huge cost. This is probably way out
of court. Therefore, it probably means that a scrapping incentive
is a more pragmatic way to proceed.
The spreadsheet of the details is attached.
D H Atton
Manager, Aerospace & Automobile Divisions
29 June 2000
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