Examination of Witnesses (Questions 140
- 159)
WEDNESDAY 8 NOVEMBER 2000
SIR ROY
MCNULTY
AND MR
COLIN CHISHOLM
140. You are guaranteeing that date?
(Sir Roy McNulty) I am not guaranteeing it.
141. What contingency plans have you got in
place?
(Sir Roy McNulty) If I might just add to that. I think
everyone should recognise that in very large complex, particularly
software intensive projects nobody guarantees things. It has proved
so far to be a viable plan and we believe that we can complete
the rest successfully.
142. I did not put that word "guarantee"
in in any facetious sense, I hope you accept that, but it leads
to my next question. I anticipated that you would say you could
not guarantee it so, therefore, what contingency plans have you
got in place if this programme does not come to fruition?
(Sir Roy McNulty) Again, we have looked at what were
the major elements and we have done our planning on the assumption
that each of them has some slippage and we have a recovery which
still brings us back to the right end date. If at worst there
was a month or two's slippage beyond the month of January you
could probably still start the system up in February or March
before the traffic increase really gets going around Easter.
143. When are you likely to know? Are there
critical pinch points in this programme when you know that you
are in a position that it is either going to work or it is not?
(Sir Roy McNulty) I think the biggest single milestone
in it is Technical Handover, that we know the system can be handed
over from the engineering authority to the operational people
and it is in a condition that is satisfactory.
144. That is due for 20 December?
(Sir Roy McNulty) Correct, so we are quite close to
that.
145. Could I go on to—
(Sir Roy McNulty) Having said that, there are other
milestones and at the end you have got to achieve them all.
146. Could I go on to costs. In your memo you
say that Swanwick will remain in line with the £623 million
budget. Does that include all associated costs of the programme,
including professional costs, consultants, DERA, etc? If it does
not, how much are they?
(Sir Roy McNulty) It does include them all. There
was some confusion in times past when NATS tended to report the
capital element only. The £623 million figure includes all
of the other costs.
147. The memo we have from DETR says that costs
are around £625 million, not including NATS' internal costs
which exceeded the original budget estimate by around £150
million, about 30 per cent. So you can see the conflict. Can you
explain that?
(Sir Roy McNulty) I can understand your problem. We
will double check that but I am very sure that the £623 million
includes all costs.
148. So you are saying that as far as you know
DETR are wrong?
(Sir Roy McNulty) That is my opinion. I will double
check that and I will come back to you.
149. Thank you. Could I ask one more question
on costs. NATS say that the computer hardware which supports NAS,
the National Aerospace System, was replaced in 1989 and "is
due to be replaced again within the next 12 months". What
is the cost of replacing the hardware that supports NAS? Would
that cost have been incurred if the New En Route Centre had been
opened in 1996?
(Mr Chisholm) The hardware change that we are making,
in fact I hope we will make this winter, the system is called
S390 that we are going to, is not related at all to NERC. There
is no inter-dependency on that. It is a hardware change that we
are due to make and we want to make for capacity and performance
reasons. The cost, I think it is in the two to three million range.
We can confirm that but it is of that sort of order.
150. Finally, just for clarification, I think
what you have said is that this has got nothing to do with NERC
so any suggestion that it was proposed, or suggested, that the
New En Route Centre would have contained this new hardware in
1996 is not correct, it is something that has happened since?
(Mr Chisholm) Yes, absolutely.
Mr Stevenson: Thank you.
Mr Bennett
151. You have reached agreement with your employees
about the rates of pay, is that right?
(Sir Roy McNulty) Correct.
152. Is that going to recruit sufficient staff
to meet the shortfall?
(Mr Chisholm) It is not entirely clear to me what
shortfall you mean. In certain areas we are short of some engineers,
it is not a big number. Yes, I think our pay rates are competitive.
We have to keep looking at selective groups. There is no doubt
in the South East of England if you are trying to recruit software
engineers, and I would not argue with our colleagues, to work
on what we call legacy systems, it is quite difficult. I think
our pay rates are fairly competitive and where they are not we
will adjust those.
153. So you are saying that you are short of
some engineers to work on the old systems. What else are you short
of?
(Mr Chisholm) It is not a big number that we are short
of, if we are.
154. How many?
(Mr Chisholm) I do not have the precise number to
hand but it is not a big number and we can confirm that.
155. On controllers?
(Mr Chisholm) My data indicates that we are not short
of controllers at all right now. The requirement is 1,254 controllers
across our entire operation. I am only talking about operational
controllers here. I can give you the total numbers of controllers.
We have actually some 1,312 controllers, actual operational validated
controllers, checked out controllers. That does include some 60
in the area control operation at LATCC who are a deliberate build-up
of an overbearing. If you took those away we are pretty well bang
on the number that we need to be at.
156. Have you looked at the age profile of those
and the sickness record and do you think that over the next three
years that is going to be adequate?
(Mr Chisholm) We study the age profile very carefully
and we have got detailed graphs on that, including taking account
of our early retirement scheme that we have for controllers. They
have an option to retire from 55 onwards. We very closely monitor
sickness. In fact, we have been tracking recently a slight increase
in sickness at the London Control Centre.
157. Would that be because of stress?
(Mr Chisholm) We have no data to indicate that. There
is anecdotal data to say that controllers when they are feeling
ill, or are actually ill, are less inclined to come in when it
is marginal, and I would not take issue with that, I think the
job has become more continuously busy.
Chairman
158. I am sorry, Mr Chisholm, but I am a bit
confused about this. You are tracking it but it is anecdotal and
although there may be evidence that they do not come in, it is
not necessarily that they are ill, it is a marginal condition.
How do you establish that?
(Mr Chisholm) The anecdotal bit is me talking to quite
a lot of controllers.
159. If you are tracking it you do not do it
by ringing up controllers and saying "excuse me, you have
not come in this morning, is that because you have got a hangover
or is it because you do not feel inclined to come in" do
you? Or I do not know, maybe you do, a form of management I have
not come across before.
(Mr Chisholm) We deploy all sorts of styles of management.
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