THURSDAY 27 JANUARY 2000 _________ Members present: Mr Andrew F Bennett, in the Chair Mr Hilary Benn Mr Tom Brake Christine Butler Mr John Cummings Mr Brian H Donohoe Mrs Gwyneth Dunwoody Mrs Louise Ellman Mr Clifford Forsythe Dr Stephen Ladyman Miss Anne McIntosh Mr Bill O'Brien Mr Bill Olner _________ MR STEPHEN TIMMS, a Member of the House, Financial Secretary to the Treasury, MR SIMON VIRLEY, Head of the Environmental Tax Team, Treasury and MS HEATHER MASSEY, Head of Excise Policy Group, Customs & Excise, examined. Chairman 1324. Can I welcome you to the Committee. Please introduce yourself and your team for the record? (Mr Timms) I am Stephen Timms, I am the Financial Secretary to the Treasury. I am very pleased to be making my first appearance before this Committee. On my left is Simon Virley, who is the Head of the Environmental Tax Team at the Treasury. On my right is Heather Massey, who is the Head of the Excise Policy Group at Customs & Excise. 1325. Do you want us to go straight to questions or do you want to make a brief introduction? (Mr Timms) I am very happy to go straight to questions. Mr O'Brien 1326. Minister, there have been criticisms about the introduction of this levy, and people saying it is badly thought out, it limits environmental benefits and we now have the question of negotiated agreements, average tax levels allowances. How do you respond to these criticisms? (Mr Timms) I believe the levy is going to be a very effective element of the Government's overall climate change programme. I must say I think the whole process that we have been through is a very good example of how economic instruments of this kind should be developed, starting with the work commissioned by the Chancellor from Lord Marshall, working with his task force, that leading on to a recommendation to the Chancellor in November 1998 and then the proposals in the March Budget and extensive consultations following that, further proposals in the Pre-Budget Report last November which were very, very widely welcomed. I think it is increasingly recognised that we have succeeded in designing an instrument which will have very substantial environmental benefits and will also not undermine the competitiveness of United Kingdom firms. Those were our twin objectives at the outset and, I think, that is what we are going to deliver. 1327. On the negotiated agreements, obviously they are not made public and people are not aware of what they do contain, there has been criticism of them from people involved, the chemical industry, and so the points that you make concerning the advantages of the levy have been questioned by some of the industries. Today we have heard the National Farmers Union say that some of their members could lose their businesses and jobs because of this. This is the kind of criticism we are receiving and will be in the Report. Do you consider there has to be some question raised in the Department to meet some of this concern and the anxiety that has been expressed to us? (Mr Timms) We have been working very hard to address all of the concerns that have been raised. When I arrived at the Treasury at the end of July there were a lot of letters coming across my desk from people expressing concern. There are now fewer, reflecting, I think, the wide welcome for the changes and the developments the Chancellor announced in November. On the negotiated agreements he made a specific point of concern about that. Of course, those agreements are not yet finalised but they will be made public when they are. I do not think that those agreements either will give rise, once they are concluded and made public, to the concerns that you are referring to. 1328. Many companies have spent a lot of money in energy efficiency units and reaching the targets, well in excess of the targets but, yes, they are still being penalised, why is that? (Mr Timms) The view that we have taken following from Lord Marshall's work is that there should be greater incentives for all firms to reduce energy usage and so to reduce emissions. That is the basis on which we have gone forward as we have. There will not be complete exemptions for firms or sectors of firms in order that those additional incentives can be provided. Of course this levying is going to be revenue neutral. All of the money that is raised through the levying will be recycled to the business, mainly through the reduction in employers' national insurance contributions. There is no extra tax revenue raised as a result of it. Many, many firms will be better off as a result of the package. I do not accept the premise for the criticism that you are advancing. Miss McIntosh 1329. If I can return, for a moment, to the negotiated agreements? Are you saying that the Treasury is still open to a possible negotiation of agreements with the agricultural industry, bearing in mind that many of their units are particularly small? (Mr Timms) There is a number of points there, first of all the basis for the negotiated agreements is that the negotiations are covered by the EU IPPC Directive, which includes a number of agricultural sites. There are those discussions going on currently, leading, I hope, to a negotiated agreement. You make a particular point about small sites and that is an issue that we have addressed. For reasons that I do not entirely know there is an exclusion from the IPPC Directive for small pig farms, for example. We made it clear that where a site is excluded solely on the basis of its size then that site will be eligible for the benefits of a negotiated agreement. The size point that you raised we have dealt with. 1330. It was my distinct impression that the NFU had not grasped that this morning. The other point I would like to move on to is, would it not have been the preferred option, rather than acting unilaterally and possibly damaging our own industry in anti-competitive terms with competitors in the rest of Europe and the world, for Britain to put pressure on our European partners to wait for a European energy tax? (Mr Timms) That is an interesting proposition. I think anyone waiting for a European energy tax would have waited a very long time indeed. It is the case that all of us in the EU have signed up to the Kyoto objectives. All of the Member States are taking action that they see as necessary to achieve those targets. Most of the Member States, I think eight is the number so far, have either introduced or are working-up proposals for an energy tax of some sort. I think we have been able to design in the United Kingdom a Climate Change Levy that does not benefit United Kingdom firms as compared with EU firms. I think realistically the prospect of everybody agreeing with a Europe-wide tax would be pretty remote, given the history of the much more modest Energy Products Directive. 1331. If I can put it in a slightly different way, I have a brick factory in the Vale of York and we have had a written submission from the brick industry in the United Kingdom, and this one proposal on its own could possibly shut down the whole of the brick producing industry in this country. Would it not have been a more novel procedure, rather than clobber those in a way that is, perhaps, not tax efficient and indeed environmentally friendly, which this piece of legislation is seeking to do, to actually have gone down the path of encouraging people to use other alternative energies and to give tax incentives? I heard of one this morning, that I was not aware of, energy schemes of alternative energy that could give them some sort of tax incentive. (Mr Timms) We will be doing that within the Climate Change Levy. The Climate Change Levy will be very effective environmentally, it is not going to damage the competitiveness of United Kingdom firms. My understanding is that brick producers are going to be covered by one of the negotiated agreements, which will bring an 80 per cent reduction in the amount of levy that is charged to them. I certainly do not expect problems of the kind you describe for brick firms. Amongst the proposals that the Chancellor announced in November was an exemption from the levy for energy generated from new, renewable sources, precisely what you just advocated, and, indeed, increasing the incentives for people to use renewable energy. I agree with you, that is a very worthwhile change in the package and it is one of the matters that has considerably enhanced the environmental effectiveness of the levy compared with the proposals that were announced initially. Mr Donohoe 1332. When you say, Minister, this is tax neutral, how much are you going to charge for all of the bureaucracy? (Mr Timms) It is revenue neutral in the sense that all of the money--- 1333. How much is the Treasury going to keep for all of the bureaucracy this levy is going to create? What percentage are you going to the keep within Treasury? (Mr Timms) As far as I know we have not yet produced figures for the administrative costs associated with the levy. What I would say, though, is that one of the benefits of our proposals is that it is very much less complex to administer than some of the measures that are being introduced elsewhere in the EU, some of which involve very large numbers of inspectors going round and doing all sorts of things, which is not going to be happening as a result of our proposal. Given that we do have a very important objective, which all of us signed up to, the need to reduce emissions to achieve the Kyoto targets, the way that the levy has been designed does have the advantage of administrative simplicity compared with alternative approaches being taken elsewhere. 1334. Do you now concede that the original proposals would have harmed industry to the point of costing a number of jobs? (Mr Timms) I think it is important to see all of this as a process, that is right from the start when the Chancellor asked Lord Marshall to carry out his study and he set up a task force to work with him, the proposals in the Budget in March and the further proposals in November. All the way through we have been extremely careful to take very full account of all the points of view being expressed by businesses and others about how to take this measure forward. As I said earlier, I think it has been a very effective process partly for that reason, because we have been careful to listen to what everybody has said to us at each stage. There is no doubt at all that there were lots of concerns expressed following the Budget in March. We have taken very careful note of those and the proposals have been amended as a result. 1335. As an ex-trade union official you have employed the oldest tactic in the book, which is to put a claim out and then bring it way down so that everybody breaths a sigh of relief initially, but what the Treasury are renowned for, is it not, if we look at the car tax, if we look at the airport tax, is the salami tactics it will be using over the next ten to 15 years. You will not be able to give this Committee any assurance that suggests anything different to the normal practice within the Treasury. (Mr Timms) That is true. I expect the normal practice in the Treasury under this Government to continue. 1336. So you are conceding that it is possible that in ten years' time when industry re-visits this they will see a very much different situation as a percentage of their business than perhaps they are facing as a consequence of the Autumn Statement? (Mr Timms) Let me go back to some of the points you were making earlier. I want to defend very robustly the process that we have been through because I think it has been an excellent process. Lots of people have commented on it and had the opportunity to do that. Those comments have been very well taken on board by the Treasury. Mrs Dunwoody 1337. We did not get the impression the horticultural industry loved you this morning, but perhaps that was a misconception. (Mr Timms) I made the point earlier than when I arrived at the Treasury in July my desk was awash with letters from people expressing concern. Mr Donohoe 1338. It bought off the strongest, that is the point. (Mr Timms) It is not any more and that is because we have carefully taken on board the points that have been raised with us through this process. Nobody is suggesting that this is an easy process. It is a difficult process. It is very big issues at stake for Britain, for the world and for individual firms. It is a complex process and I think it has been managed extremely well and I think it provides a good model for how these things should be done in the future. On your other point about where we go from here. We have said that we would anticipate these duty rates will be treated exactly like other sorts of duty rates and go up in line with inflation, but of course that is a matter for the Chancellor to decide at each Budget in turn and I imagine, looking into the long-term future, that is going to depend on what happens with our climate change programme generally and how effective we are in meeting the targets that all of us want to see delivered. Mr Donohoe: There are an awful lot of qualifications in there. Mr Olner 1339. Given that over the last decade electricity and gas prices to businesses have fallen by 22 per cent and 44 per cent respectively, why did you offer so many concessions to different energy users? (Mr Timms) It has been a commitment from the outset to introduce the levy in a way that does not undermine the competitiveness of UK firms. We recognised very early on that that did mean looking carefully at what happened to energy intensive users, that is why we have facilitated the process of negotiated agreements and it is now proposed that those who are signed up to one of those agreements will have a reduction of 80 per cent in their levy liability. It has been convincingly argued to me and no doubt to this Committee as well that without a significant reduction in the levy liability for very heavily energy intensive firms there would have been a serious threat to their competitive position. We wanted to avoid that and the process that we have been through I think will succeed in delivering that objective. 1340. I appreciate that you and I have had discussions about this with me wearing another hat. I have got my environmental hat on today. The Electricity Association have said that the reform of the electricity trading arrangements which the DTI has predicted will lead to a ten per cent reduction in wholesale electricity prices. Has that been factored in to the concessions that were given or into any part of the levy when it was being designed? (Mr Timms) Yes, it has been factored into our calculations about what the savings in emissions will be through the period that we are talking about. I do not think there is any inconsistency at all between wanting to see a high degree of competition in the energy market and at the same time introducing the levy in accordance with the polluter pays principle to ensure that there is a cost that reflects more fully the environmental consequences of energy usage and that is what the levy will do. Mr Brake 1341. Minister, I have two questions for you. In a letter to the WWF you said that the levy package will be revenue neutral for the private sector. We have heard from a stream of witnesses, the Chemical Industries Association, the NFU, the CBI, the brick industry, how they are going to be either damaged or in some cases crucified financially by the Climate Change Levy. Which companies in the private sector are going to benefit from the Climate Change Levy? (Mr Timms) Let me just explain first of all what I mean by revenue neutrality again. The point I am making is that there will be no net financial gain to the Treasury as a result of the introduction of this tax. It is interesting as well to note that if you look at the effects of the package as a whole, that is the levy, the reduction in National Insurance employers' contributions and the support for energy efficiency measures, it is neutral for the manufacturing sector as well as for the services sector. We have gone a step further in terms of the neutrality point than we were able to earlier. Nevertheless, there are going to be some firms whose levy payment is greater than their reduced National Insurance contributions and there are other firms for whom the reverse is the case. 1342. But we have not heard from any of them. (Mr Timms) There are many. Indeed, I was at a meeting yesterday of the Major Energy Users' Council representing some of those you would expect to be losers from the levy package and they said, "You will not find anyone here who is a gainer from this package, will you?" and to my relief a couple of people put their hands up and they were gainers from the package. Our expectation is that the majority of firms will gain from the package, but of course those who are making representations, naturally enough, are those who expect to pay more in levy than they will reductions. The chemicals industry has been amongst those who have expressed the greatest pleasure about the changes that were announced in November. The chemicals industry was very vociferous in its representations over the summer. Many of the letters that I had over the summer were from people working in the chemicals industry. I know one of my colleagues had a thousand letters from employees in the chemicals industry and there was a very great sigh of relief when the Chancellor made the announcement in November. I notice that, for example, the Chief Executive of Bass said following that announcement, "I would say we are pretty happen with the way the Government has responded." 1343. I accept that they said it was an improvement. (Mr Timms) They said more than that. They said that the threat to the competitiveness of the industry which they had perceived prior to the announcement had been removed. 1344. What concrete evidence do you have to support your assertion that by reducing the levy from œ1.75 billion to œ1 billion you will increase the carbon savings to 2 million tonnes? (Mr Timms) It is the package as a whole which is significantly more environmentally effective, as announced in November, than the package that was proposed in March. The reason for that is, firstly, you are right, the levy has been reduced in response to representations of the kind that you have been referring to, the take from the levy of œ1.75 billion a year to œ1 billion a year, but in addition to that we have introduced exemptions for energies generated from new renewable sources and from good quality combined heat and power sources. Those two exemptions between them, by encouraging greater use of combined heat and power and renewable energy sources with the extra savings in emissions that will result from that extra use of clean energy sources, will considerably outweigh the reduction --- Chairman: How much? Mr Brake 1345. I understand the package as a whole, but who has done the statistical work, is it the DETR, the DTI, the Treasury, that backs up your assertion of two million tonnes? (Mr Timms) The detailed work has been carried out by DETR. Shall I just explain how we have reached that figure of two million? In the package that was associated with the announcement in March we put a figure of 1.5 million tonnes a year savings on. The reduction from œ1.75 billion to œ1 billion reduces that figure from 1.5 to one. However, the two exemptions add an additional half a million tonnes a year carbon savings each, half a million from renewable exemption, half a million from the combined heat and power exemption, so we end up at two rather than the 1.5 that we started with. As a result of the negotiated agreements we are now confident that they will deliver a further two million on top of the two million that I have just been describing. 1346. I am sure the Committee would appreciate a written note from you so we can see that it is not simply a case of 1.5 million minus 500,000 equals a million and then you add a half a million for each of these and that there is more substance to it than you have been able to outline to the Committee today. (Mr Timms) I would be very happy to provide a note, yes. Mr Olner 1347. Do you think the reduction in National Insurance is the best way of giving rebates? Do you not think the whole thing has been messed up by having a Climate Change Levy along with reductions in National Insurance? (Mr Timms) No, I do not. I think it is a very good measure. What we are trying to do and the principle that we set out at the outset was shifting the burden of taxation from good things, like employment, to bad things, like pollution and that is what we are doing with the levy, we are reducing the taxation on employment and boosting employment thereby - because it is one of the Government's objectives to increase the number of people in work - and shifting the burden of taxation on to solution which all of us want to see reduced. I think it is a very good approach. Chairman 1348. But we are shifting it from manufacturing on to the service sector, are we not? (Mr Timms) No, we are not. As a result of the changes announced in November, that is the three elements of the package, the levy, the reduction in employers' National Insurance contributions and the additional support for energy efficiency measures, the impact on the manufacturing sector will be broadly neutral. There will not be a transfer away from manufacturing. That would have been the case with the proposals announced in March. It is not going to be the case now. Mr Olner 1349. Are we the only country in Europe that are tackling these Kyoto targets by using National Insurance? Are others in Europe doing it? You mentioned the Dutch. (Mr Timms) It is a fairly common approach to have a reduction in social security contributions commensurate with energy tax take or whatever it is that is being introduced in that country. Mr O'Brien 1350. Having regard for the fact that this levy is to reduce pollution, are we going to see in the future an escalator? (Mr Timms) There is certainly no escalator envisaged at the moment. Mrs Dunwoody 1351. Is that up until the next Budget? (Mr Timms) Clearly the Chancellor makes these decisions one Budget at a time. I think in the long term the decisions the Chancellor takes in Budgets years into the future will depend on what happens with the Government's climate change programme as a whole. Mr O'Brien 1352. There is no indication as to how the future rates of the levy will be presented and the length of time? We are advised that business and industry do require sufficient notice so that they can Budget for any increases. What you are saying is that industry will only learn after the Chancellor has made a statement in his Budget or in the Autumn? (Mr Timms) My expectation is that the rate of the levy will rise at least in line with inflation in common with other fuel duties. I take the point about the need for certainty in industry. Therefore, we have said that if the rate of the levy rises by more than inflation for those who have signed up to negotiated agreements then we recognise that those who are party to those agreements will need to have further discussions about how to take those forward. I think we have taken that point on board. 1353. In order for this levy to be effective, that is to let people know that we are serious about reducing pollution, should not the cost be reflected on the bills for energy, electricity, gas? (Mr Timms) I think they should be and they will be. I think that is an important point and my expectation is that there will be a separate entry for the levy on each firm's electricity bill just pointing out to them how much they can save if they reduce energy and so contribute to our objectives. Christine Butler 1354. How can the Government encourage still further the use of clean fuels, which is what this is all about, and savings in carbon if it refuses to put a duty on kerosene and yet imposes the levy on liquid petroleum gas? Liquid petroleum gas is a much cleaner fuel. It also would impact very heavily on the farming community who often use LPG containers for pig usage. We heard this morning of what a state that industry is in at the moment. It also impacts on social exclusion because in remote communities LPG is often the form of energy that is chosen. If we are not careful we could be putting the price up so high for these users that it would not only damage liquid petroleum gas, the people in Calor, but it would also have a great impact on the farming community in outlying and scattered areas. (Mr Timms) Kerosene is primarily used in domestic heating systems and we have made it clear that for social policy reasons we do not want to increase the tax on domestic fuel. So I anticipate kerosene remaining zero rated. I am aware of the concern that has been expressed by LPG suppliers. I have met with the Chief Executive of Calor Gas to talk about this. I had a letter from him two or three weeks ago acknowledging that we were now fully aware of the concerns that firms like his have about this and we are looking currently at whether we need to make some change in the levy arrangements to address those concerns or not. I do not know at this stage whether we will or we will not, but we are looking at them currently. 1355. There are three routes so that this and other problems can be resolved. There could be carbon tuning or an exemption so we could include something like LPG within the renewables sector or you equalise things by putting a duty on to kerosene. I do not know which route you would take, but I suggest that we should look at exemptions for what is an interim product in such a way as to move towards renewable and solar energy and that does supply a niche in the market. (Mr Timms) We are looking at all the options. I caution against the likelihood of imposing a fuel on kerosene because of the implications in the domestic sector of doing that, but we are looking carefully at the options that are available. 1356. Why are you helping the railways and not helping waterborne freight? You are exempting energy use for freight by rail but you are not helping coastal shipping. (Mr Timms) I think the exemption that we have announced for fuel used in traction for freight rail transport has been widely welcomed. Clearly it is in all our interests if freight goes by rail rather than road. I think that is a good point. The issue about coastal shipping has not been raised with me thus far. (Mr Virley) The majority of coastal shipping and the inland waterway movements of goods use fuel oil or gas oil as the method of propulsion. Under the existing mineral oils taxation regime the use of oil in these circumstances is fully relieved from tax. What the proposal would produce is a level playing field between the use of electricity by rail freight and the use of oil by coastal traffic. Christine Butler: That is why they have not been included yet. We do want to encourage freight by rail and water. Mr O'Brien 1357. We were pleased with the increase in the energy efficiency measures from œ50 million to œ150 million and I think the Chancellor has got to be commended for that. Are we going to see an increase in that in the future? Also, energy efficiency is directed and targeted at industry. Are we going to see any of this going into the domestic properties to reduce loss of energy, to create jobs and to demonstrate that there is a genuine approach to reducing loss of heating in homes and reduce carbon? (Mr Timms) I am grateful for what you said about the increase in the fund. We have trebled the size of the sum available for these measures since the Budget in March and that has been widely welcomed. In terms of the future, that will depend on our assessment of how things develop. I think it is important we make sure that any fund of this sort is well used. This is a much larger sum than has been applied to anything comparable in the past by Government and we just need to make sure that the money is being well used before we look seriously at further increases, but if in the future that seems to be warranted then I have no doubt the Chancellor would consider that. Your point is about whether it would be applied to the domestic sector. No, the fund will be purely for the business sector, but of course there is a programme of tackling energy efficiency in the domestic sector mainly through the expanded home energy efficiency scheme and I agree with you that it is very important that the domestic side is tackled as well as the business side. 1358. In view of your response that this is for industry and the fact that the Prime Minister is on record as wanting a balanced fuel for producing electricity, is any of this money going towards clean coal technology? (Mr Timms) We are consulting currently on the scope for applying the energy efficiency fund. Whether we are looking within that consultation at clean coal specifically, I am not sure. (Ms Massey) There have been some representations on that issue and that would be one of the means of developing the energy efficiency fund, in terms of developing low carbon technologies and the final decisions on that are going to be taken in the Spending Review 2000. 1359. So there is nothing more firm than the fact that it is being reviewed? This is a matter that has been around for years and years, the question of clean coal technology. I would have thought that it would be high on the agenda because of the fact that money has been allocated for energy efficiency and this is one of the areas where we could demonstrate widely that clean coal technology would help to reduce carbon emissions and also improve energy efficiency. (Mr Timms) We only announced the fund in its current form in November and we started straightaway on a consultation about how that fund should be applied when it becomes available from next year. It has not been forgotten about by any means. It is within the scope of the consultation which is going on along with other techniques which are promising as well. Mr Brake 1360. What was the rationale behind choosing œ150 million? Is it just because it is bigger than œ50 million? (Mr Timms) It is indeed. We are responding to a lot of representations that were made to us that a significantly greater share of the take should be ploughed back into energy saving investments and in response to that we trebled the size of the amount of money involved. It is important that a fund of this kind is well used. It is a new initiative and therefore I would have been very reluctant to set aside hundreds of millions on something where we did not know quite how it was going to pan out. I think œ150 strikes the right balance between a very significant contribution to greater energy efficiency with making sure that we are moving step by step in a well planned way, as we have done throughout the climate change exercise. Mr Forsythe 1361. Minister, what is your view about targeting the rebates on the levy? Would permitting rebates only for genuinely intensive companies, as suggested by Friends of the Earth, not improve the environmental effectiveness of the levy and permit even higher reductions in National Insurance? (Mr Timms) I did not hear what Friends of the Earth said. 1362. They were suggesting targeting different companies. (Mr Timms) The basis that we have adopted for negotiated agreements is the IPPC basis. I think that is a good basis perhaps primarily because there is a very strong rationale for it in that sites that are covered by the IPPC Directive do have a legal obligation on them to operate in an energy efficient way. That is an extra requirement that firms outside the scope of that Directive that do not have, but all of the firms that are within the scope of the Directive do have that requirement imposed upon them. I think it does make sense to treat all of them in the same way and give them access to negotiated agreements if they wish to take one up. 1363. Let us suppose there was a company which had got right down to the bottom and could not save any more energy, it could not do anything else and another company had massive outputs so that it required a much higher levy on it. Would it not be fairer if the business which is really efficient in energy saving terms was treated differently from the one that is very inefficient in energy saving? (Mr Timms) It is being treated differently. The extent of investments that have already been made is being taken account of in the negotiated agreement process and of course anyone who is using less energy currently than they otherwise would be also have a lower levy liability as a result. 1364. So there is targeting in actual fact? (Mr Timms) In that sense, yes. What was set out at the beginning of the process of negotiated agreements was an assessment of how far each sector could go to achieve what I understand is referred to as BATNEEC, which is Best Available Technology Not Entailing Excessive Cost, and clearly that process depends on how far sectors have already gone towards implementing improved energy saving technologies. Chairman 1365. Grandfather rights, how far are they going back? This question of being credited for what you have done in the past, is that not one of the issues within these negotiations, that is how much credit you should get for what you did five or six years ago as opposed to what you did last year? (Mr Timms) It was the Energy Technology Support Unit that did the work of looking at each of the sectors and making an assessment of how far they could reasonably go on this BATNEEC basis. I am not sure, I do not think there has been a formal contracting process for investments that have been made in the past, but clearly how far firms in that sector have already gone towards what is realistic has been part of the negotiations, but the most important consideration is how far they can realistically expect to reach as this process goes on and I think it has been a very effective process. There is a good degree of consensus between the sectors and ETSU about what can be delivered through the negotiated agreements as a result of this process. Mr Forsythe 1366. Minister, the majority of the industrial evidence given to us argues that integrated pollution prevention and control is not the right criterion to use and in fact they have called its use "arbitrary", "artificial", "illogical" and "inequitable". What practical suggestions have you considered on the potential of extending rebates to sectors falling outside IPPC that enter into suitable negotiated agreements or emissions trading arrangements? (Mr Timms) I think there is a good rationale for using IPPC. I have given one of the reasons for that already. Another advantage is that it does provide legal certainty in terms of determining exactly who is and is not able to enter into a negotiated agreement and that is very important as well, that everybody knows where they stand. What we have said is that we would be willing to consider suggestions for alternative definitions along the lines that you have suggested to target the relief on energy intensive sectors that are exposed to international competition, but we think there are four concerns that would need to be met with any such proposal. First of all, there would need to be a very clear rationale for whatever the extension was. Secondly, there would need to be legal certainty. Thirdly, it would need to be relatively simple to administer and not introduce great bureaucracy and, fourthly, it would need to be consistent with the EU state aid rules. If sectors or firms want to propose extensions which meet those criteria then we will be very keen to look at them. Lord Marshall's conclusion, which we have accepted, is that there is an important part to play for emissions trading alongside the Climate Change Levy and we are encouraging work on developing a UK emissions trading scheme in response to that recommendation. Mrs Ellman 1367. Minister, you seem to be very confident that the Climate Change Levy will not affect the manufacturing industry adversely. Why are you so confident and how are you going to monitor what happens? (Mr Timms) The levy package will be broadly neutral for manufacturing as a whole and there will not be a net transfer of resources out of manufacturing and that is a feature of the proposals that were announced in November. We have listened very very carefully to the concerns that have been expressed to us by manufacturing and other firms and we have taken full account of those in the changes that we announced in November and I think that is why they have been so widely welcomed. Clearly we will keep a very close eye on these matters as the levy is implemented from April next year and as things progress. I think we have been able through the proposals in November really quite successfully both to increase the environmental effectiveness of the levy and to ensure that there is not a competitive threat to UK firms. 1368. What is the basis of the judgments you are making about the impacts on manufacturing? Where are you getting your information from and how are you going to monitor the future? (Mr Timms) We have obviously done some careful analysis of the effect on the manufacturing sector. That does involve making some rather broad brush assumptions because all of this is a little uncertain. In terms of the environmental benefits, we have erred on the cautious side to make sure that we are not over-estimating the environmental benefits of the levy. We have done some careful analysis that I think will stand up, but I certainly acknowledge the point that nobody knows absolutely precisely what is going to happen in the years ahead. 1369. Is this departmental analysis or are you discussing this with the Department of Trade and Industry? (Mr Timms) It is being discussed jointly between ourselves, DETR and the DTI, all of us are involved in discussions on these points. Chairman 1370. You could not send us a copy of this analysis, could you? (Mr Timms) If the Committee would like me to send some information about the impact on the manufacturing sector, there is some work that we have put in hand and I could send the Committee a note on that. Chairman: I think that would be very helpful. Dr Ladyman 1371. Energy already costs and so companies are already motivated to reduce the cost of it. I put it to you that these negotiated agreements are going to be a cop-out because all they are going to include are things that people would do anyway. (Mr Timms) No, I do not think that is the case. As you say, people are already having to spend money on energy. Will the introduction of the levy encourage them to use less? That was the nub of the issue that was considered by Lord Marshall in his report and his conclusion very clearly was that in his view there probably was a role for an economic instrument and that by introducing the levy we will be able to encourage people to use less energy. As far as the negotiated agreements are concerned, I think what the process has shown is that it has been possible to reach agreements with sectors about very substantial moves towards the optimum arrangements and we are now confident that the agreements between them will deliver an additional two million tonnes of carbon a year savings beyond what would have happened under a business as usual scenario. I think they will be very effective. 1372. That two million tonnes might well have been two million tonnes that was going to be saved anyway. You said earlier that you are going to allow things that people did in the past to be included in the negotiated agreements. That was action that people took without even the stick of the Climate Change Levy being used to threaten them. You are certainly not going to encourage innovation negotiated agreements, are you? (Mr Timms) I think we certainly are. The whole process has been very innovative. I think one of the great benefits of the levy has been to focus a lot of people's attention on just what can be done to reduce energy use. I think anyone who has taken any part in the negotiating process will recognise that as a result of this process firms are going a great deal further than they would have done if the levy had not been around. The two million tonnes is certainly beyond what would have happened if there had not been anything of this sort in place. 1373. Let us look at payback times. Yesterday we heard from the chemical industry that they would be looking at a payback time of around about four years whereas other witnesses have estimated that we need to look at payback times of around about eight years if we are going to have real innovation that is going to drive down energy use. If the negotiated agreements are so weak that people only need to look at investments that pay back over four years then they are not serving their purpose, are they? (Mr Timms) They are certainly not weak. At the outset ETSU set out an assessment of where it would be realistic for each sector to move to in order to reduce energy use and to adopt the best available technology in order to do so. What we have seen coming out of the agreements is a very very successful process because that is pretty much where the agreements have reached. So those aspirations were set out independently not by the firms but by the unit at the beginning and those aspirations have been delivered through the agreements. I think it has been an excellent process. 1374. If you are going to convince people of this then are you going to do anything to have these negotiations more publicly held than they are at the moment? Are you going to publish them ahead of them being signed on the dotted line? Are you going to involve NGOs in arriving at these negotiated agreements? (Mr Timms) There are two things that are going to happen. Firstly, once the agreements have been concluded they will be published so everybody will be able to see precisely what is in them. Secondly, we will ensure that what happens subsequently is independently audited so that there is confidence right across the community about what is going on. 1375. They are going to be independently audited, but so far as I am aware at the moment you are not intending to make any differential when you punish somebody between somebody who just misses his target and somebody who does not bother at all. They are both going to get punished by the same two year payment of the full levy. (Mr Timms) This is where the emissions trading arrangements could be extremely helpful because, of course, a sector that just misses its target will be able to go into emissions trading arrangements and thereby meet its target by doing some trading. Ultimately, if nothing happens and if the target is missed then the ultimate sanction is that the rate of levy payable will revert to 100 per cent. What I anticipate happening through the emissions trading arrangements is people being able to trade to avoid that happening. Mr Benn 1376. Would you be in favour of the negotiated agreements being published in draft form to allow others to express a view before they are finally published in their signed form? (Mr Timms) These are quite difficult commercial negotiations. I think it would be very difficult to publish them before they were concluded. I think it is important that once they have been concluded they are published so that everybody knows what has been happening and exactly what everyone has signed themselves up to. I think trying to publish something beforehand would be difficult given the commercial nature of the discussions. 1377. You are keen on emissions trading, as you said in your written evidence. Do you think that companies are voluntarily going to accept an emissions cap if there is not some sort of inducement for them to enter into in practice? (Mr Timms) In the situation we have just been discussing where somebody is about to miss the target in their negotiated agreement I think there would be a significant incentive for them to be part of a trading arrangement. We would like to see emissions trading taken up very widely. We have encouraged the work the Emissions Trading Group is doing and which the CBI is leading on. I have met Rodney Chase from BP Amoco who is leading that work on a couple of occasions and I am expected to see him again before too long. I know that one of the subjects that group is considering is what needs to be done to encourage firms to take up emissions trading and I will be looking with great interest at their conclusions. 1378. Some witnesses have said to us they think smaller firms are not going to be able to participate. The CBI yesterday said they did not think that was a problem and it is perfectly possible. Do you have a view on that? (Mr Timms) My guess is there always will be some firms that are not able to participate in an emissions trading arrangement. That is one of the reasons why I think the levy is so important, so we can make sure there is a greater incentive for everybody to reduce energy emissions. I hope that it will be possible to develop a framework for trading that can be very very widely taken up and I think we will see what the group recommends when it comes forward with its conclusions. Chairman 1379. Is there not a danger that we are creating jobs in emissions trading at the expense of the pig farmers? (Mr Timms) I think trading is quite a benign activity. 1380. And pig farming is not? (Mr Timms) I think pig farming is also a very benign activity. A trading mechanism can create incentives for people to behave in the kind of way that all of us would like them to behave, in a very efficient manner. 1381. Let us turn to state aid. You did just briefly mention it. It was put to us yesterday that there might be a problem within EU rules in that some of these rebates might be considered to be state aid. Can you clear that up for us? (Mr Timms) Yes. It is the case that we need to obtain agreement from the EU for the proposals that we are putting forward. We are very optimistic about the outcome of that process, but we do need to go through that and those discussions are taking place currently. 1382. So you are optimistic about current negotiations. When will we know the outcome? (Mr Timms) Simon, are you able to comment on the timetable for the process? (Mr Virley) We would hope to be able to have further announcements before the legislation is presented to Parliament, which would be shortly after the Budget. Dr Ladyman 1383. Nobody is going to trade in emissions unless the cost of the trade is less than the tax. Therefore, if we are going to allow that sort of emissions trading to be built in to a process where people who fail to make their targets are allowed to get out of paying the tax by emissions trading is that not going to be a disincentive to get involved in this in the first place? You can reduce your tax bill at the outset by just trading in emissions and not worry about spending on energy efficiency. (Mr Timms) I do not think so. I think what we are taking about is a process taking place at the margin where somebody is just about to miss their target and then the trading market will determine what the price to be paid for that trade is. 1384. But that will only work if you have a mechanism to say, "Okay, you are a marginal failure, we will let you trade and avoid the tax", and you say to somebody else, "You are not a marginal failure, you did not try at all, so you are going to pay the tax and you are going to trade." The only way that is going to work is if you have that power. (Mr Timms) I do not entirely understand that argument. Chairman: I think we had better not go too much further in to that argument. We will leave that as a question hanging in the air. Minister, your evidence has been very helpful. Thank you.