Examination of Witnesses (Questions 480
- 498)
THURSDAY 16 MARCH 2000
THE RT
HON ROBIN
COOK, MR
EMYR JONES
PARRY AND
MR BRIAN
DONNELLY, CMG
480. Funded from outside.
(Mr Cook) They funded it and because they were funding
it a system grew up in which they did not pay taxes to the official
authorities, they made their contributions to their own community
ethnic organisations. There is not a system or a culture of paying
taxes to the official authorities. To be fair to the UNMIK operation,
and in this case it is the EU pillar that is responsible for it,
very considerable effort has gone into trying to create the basis
for a future economy and tax raising system there. Dixon, who
has headed up that EU section, has put particular priority into
trying to tackle the basis for a functioning economy, sometimes
to the point of criticism that he is not looking enough at the
physical infrastructure, such as the housing. The reality is that
not everything can be a priority. Now we have arrived at a situation
in which there are customs collections and sales taxes which are
operating at the main crossing points of the border.
481. One of the results of that is the biggest
traffic jams I have ever seen in my life. There were some 700
lorries at the border when we travelled across.
(Mr Cook) I can believe that. The exit and entry points
are very few. We cannot have it both ways. We cannot demand a
tax system and then back off from the fact that this really does
mean a customs system at the border plus, of course, one has to
be frank, control over organised crime, because the point of intervention
is at the crossing point. We are committed to providing resources
for the reconstruction and Europe is providing 360 million euro
in the current year, which is just over half the total amount
coming from the world, very large sums of money. That kind of
input is not going to end this year. As Kosovo progresses it is
not unreasonable to expect a gradual transition to what was envisaged
in 1244 which is that UNMIK will meet many of its costs for services
in Kosovo from developing a tax system within Kosovo.
Chairman
482. We visited Montenegro, we were received
very warmly, and we were encouraged by the democratic spirit when
parties opposed to each other politically were prepared to appear
before us and give evidence. How do you answer the charge of a
Montenegrin that "here you are, the international community,
urging us strongly not to go for independence and at the same
time denying us resources because we can only have access to the
international financial institutions if we are indeed independent"?
(Mr Cook) To be fair to ourselves, quite a lot of
resources have gone into Montenegro since June of last year. I
am conscious of the dilemma that you have identified. Frankly,
there is nothing we can do about the rules of the IMF because
it would require a change in the charter effectively.
483. But we can do something about the EBRD.
(Mr Cook) Can I come to it next one step down. In
terms of the World Bank there is now a proposal for a trust fund
to be set up in Montenegro which would be a useful way of enabling
the World Bank to be active but without infringing its charter.
That will depend on donors coming forward and paying into the
trust fund but I think that is quite an imaginative way around
the problem. In terms of the European Union, there are two issues
of concern to Montenegrins. One is those projects put forward
to the Stability Pact where we have now looked again to see if
there are ways in which we can include some form of project in
Montenegro. It is going to be very difficult but we are trying
to crack that one. The more urgent and more difficult one is that
ECOFIN, the finance Ministers of the European Union, have looked
at this question on a couple of occasions and feel that they cannot
offer financial assistance to Montenegro because they can only
do so where the IMF would be engaged. To be candid, I would not
necessarily find it unhelpful if the Committee was to press the
European Union to find creative ways around the problem.
484. Do you feel frustrated by the fact that
whilst Europe dallies, whilst bureaucrats find excellent ways
to say no, that democracy building and democracy potential in
Montenegro is put at risk?
(Mr Cook) You should not underrate the extent to which
assistance has been provided by the European Union. Indeed, per
capita we have probably put more resources into Montenegro than
just about any other spot within the region. But, having said
that, I am not disagreeing with you, Chairman. We cannot say to
Montenegro "you should not demand independence" and
then at the same time penalise them on their right to support
and assistance from outside. That is why on that one I think we
need to work hard to find an imaginative way through this thicket.
Mr Illsley
485. I was very interested in your point about
the amount of money the European Union have put into Kosovo bearing
in mind Kouchner's comments at the UN Security Council while we
were actually there when I think he referred to the EU as "a
deadbeat donor". Coming back to Montenegro, and we left Montenegro
as Chris Patten came in, there is a fear in Montenegro, a suggestion
around Montenegro, that within the next 12-18 months Milosevic
could look for a way of extending his mandate and his current
position and the only way he could do that would be by forcing
an issue to enable him to rewrite the constitution of Serbia Montenegro.
To do that he would be quite prepared to relinquish Montenegro,
to destabilise it before doing so, causing all manner of problems
in that country. Is that a scenario which is subscribed to by
the Government, or are you aware of that?
(Mr Cook) Before I respond to you on Montenegro can
I just respond to the point on which you quoted Bernard Kouchner.
I think there is a misconception around the extent to which the
European Union is putting in the bulk of the resources for much
of the activity within Kosovo. If you take the budget of UNMIK,
of OSCE and of the reconstruction pillar, the total budget for
this year is £529 million. £354 million of that is coming
from the European Union and, of that, £57 million is coming
from Britain on top of our own bilateral expenditure within Kosovo.
So the £354 million is actually spot on two-thirds of the
total expenditure across those pillars. I really think that the
European Union and ourselves, as a European nation, have come
in for some unfair criticism about the extent to which we are
playing our part in Kosovo. On Montenegro the position is very
tense and we follow it with both very great interest and very
real concern. We have gone out of our way repeatedly to show solidarity
with Montenegro. I and other European Ministers have repeatedly
met with President Djukanovic to show that solidarity. I think
it was absolutely right and courageous of Chris Patten to go to
Montenegro and show in a very visible way the European Union's
commitment and support for Montenegro, and we will continue to
do everything we can to get across that message of our commitment
to Montenegro as a democratic and autonomous area. Whether Milosevic
would put it out of the Federal Republic, nobody knows for certain
what he would do. I think it is very important to keep him guessing
as to what we would do if he was to take a precipitate or violent
action. At the same time it is hard to see how he himself could
gain constitutionally from expelling Montenegro because at the
moment he is technically the President of the Federal Republic,
not Serbia. Had he been President of Serbia for the two terms
provided for in the constitution and if there was no longer a
Federal Republic, technically he would have nothing to be President
of.
486. That is the point I am getting at. Taking
out Montenegro he could—
(Mr Cook)—rewrite the FRY constitution? It is
true that it is the Montenegro representatives in the Federal
chamber who have prevented him from rewriting the Federal constitution
so far but he must find it difficult to figure out what would
be the incalculable consequence of any move he made and it is
our task to make it more difficult for him.
Mr Rowlands
487. Last July you came before us, Secretary
of State, and told us of specific conversations between yourself
and President Djukanovic and mentioned the military technical
agreement which ensured that any withdrawal of Serb troops from
Kosovo did not go into Montenegro. That might have been observed
by the letter but the President told us when we met him that he
had seen a significant increase and build-up of Federal troops
inside Montenegro since and indeed although they went into Serbia
they now have been moved down to Montenegro. A) can you confirm
that has happened or provide any information. Secondly, he told
us he had approached NATO and raised this with Brussels. I wondered
whether this matter had been followed up. Thirdly, part of the
same question, you rightly said to us before that there would
be grave consequences and we have made this very clear to Milosevic,
but we made very clear to Milosevic a whole series of messages
over the last decade and in the end he chose either not to listen
to them or did not believe them. How are we going to make sure
that Montenegro is not the next Kosovo?
(Mr Cook) I cannot give the Committee any guarantee
of what Milosevic will do. It would be dishonest of me to attempt
to do so. All I can assure the Committee is that we are taking
every possible step to show our commitment and solidarity with
Montenegro and keep Milosevic in a state of uncertainty and indecision
as to what would be the consequences of any action he may take.
On the issue of the troops in Montenegro, subject to guidance,
I do not think there has been a significant increase in number
but what we have certainly witnessed—and I have discussed
this with President Djukanovic—a successive replacement
of the officers with tougher, hardliners. A year ago Milosevic
replaced his officers with hardliners. Now he has replaced those
hardliners with even more hardliners. This is particularly worrying
in the case of Montenegro. Brian, you are more familiar with this
than I. You have been to Montenegro.
(Mr Donnelly) You are absolutely right, Secretary
of State, we are not aware of any formal units that have come
from Belgrade to reinforce the Second Army in Podgorica. Certainly
there have been some interchanges of personnel with the intention
of perhaps toughening up the middle-ranking officer corp and there
has been a formation of what has been called the 7th Military
Police Battalion attached to the Federal army in Montenegro which
in fact is not really an army contingent at all but simply has
been recruited from supporters of Milosevic. They are essentially
political appointments but have been badged and presented as military
officers.
488. Is this not the pattern? Are these not
the tell tale signs of someone putting in place the mechanisms
for destabilisation?
(Mr Cook) Yes, you are right to worry. As I said earlier,
we view events with grave concern.
Sir David Madel
489. On economic aid and financial assistance,
the problem of where you have a country that cannot have aid because
Serbia is a pariah, can we have a situation where a region of
that country, which in a sense you would say Montenegro is, providing
that region satisfies the Copenhagen criterion on democracy, could
have economic aid? If we made that change in Europe then IMF economic
aid could go in.
(Mr Cook) The European Union, as I said, is already
giving substantial quantities of aid to Montenegro and will continue
to do so, but the issue really of concern to President Djukanovic
is not the assistance for development and humanitarian aid purposes
but the budgetary assistance for macro-financial stability which
it cannot get from the IMF. As I understand it, and I am not myself
a Finance Minister, the European rules prevent ECOFIN responding
and the IMF cannot take part. It might be helpful if I put in
to the Committee a note on what assistance there has been and
where the various legal barriers lie. But, as I said earlier,
I personally think that we have got to find imaginative ways round
the barriers.
Chairman
490. And suggestions as to how those legal barriers
might be overcome.
(Mr Cook) I do not think I can myself suggest to you
things that I was pushing privately within the European Union,
but any additional pressure from you would be of assistance and
would be quite welcome.
(Mr Jones Parry) Could I just add a comment. The problem
with macro-economic financial assistance is that it is predicated
throughout on an IMF programme. An IMF programme for Montenegro
is not possible. We only do IMF programmes under the Charter for
an entire country. It not possible to give that assistance. What
we are concentrating on is budgetary and programme assistance
with the EU and possibly the European Investment Bank giving project
assistance. We are working on both of those.
Dr Godman
491. Mr Donnelly, I think it was you who said
that hardline officers had been moved in down to junior or middle
ranking officers, but is it not the case that the soldiers that
they command are largely conscripts from Montenegro itself or
are they moving in hardline junior ranks as well? We passed the
barracks every day and there is a massive presence there. But
is it not the case that most of the other rankings are made up
of conscripts?
(Mr Donnelly) A high proportion of the other ranks
are made up of conscripts who come from Montenegro and as such
one would except them to reflect the divisions within Montenegro
so some have allegiance to Djukanovic and some not. I could not
tell you precisely what proportion they are and there are inevitable
questions about the loyalty of those forces in the event they
were called into action. I think the difficulty is that we cannot
assume that they would not respond to Milosevic. It may be that
in the event some would.
(Mr Cook) One should not lose sight of the fact that
part of the delicacy and complexity of Montenegro is that about
a third of the population are more aligned with Milosevic than
Djukanovic.
Sir David Madel
492. Foreign Secretary, two final things which
are currently side issues but have the capacity for becoming very
central; Macedonia and the Presevo Valley. It seems to me valuable
always to try and put oneself in the position of the other side
and it would seem to me that an obvious tactic from Milosevic
would be to undermine and/or discredit KFOR and NATO if he could.
Both of those two places represent opportunities. Can I ask you
about Macedonia first and then the Presevo Valley. The argument
goes with Macedonia that it is the supply route for absolutely
everything overland into Kosovo. If trouble could be fermented
in Macedonia that supply route could be put into jeopardy. Would
the United Kingdom Government, would NATO, would anybody intervene
in Macedonia if things were to get difficult there on that basis?
(Mr Cook) I have to show great care and caution in
answering that question because it is capable of causing great
alarm in Macedonia if I get it wrong among our allies and our
friends. Macedonia is very jealous of its independence, and rightly
so. It is quite explicit that the activities of KFOR and NATO
on its soil are activities sanctioned by the Government and therefore
not an intrusion upon its sovereignty. I think I would be very
unwise, given the importance of our relations with Macedonia,
to go beyond that.
493. Could I put the argument into the record
that was put to us. It goes as follows: Presevo Valley in Serbia
has Albanians who are KLA, some of whom you say have been arrested,
and either the KLA themselves fomenting trouble or Milosevic causing
trouble results in those Albanians going into Kosovo which results
in the Kosovar Albanians taking revenge on the Serbs in Kosovo
because of yet more trouble which results in an exodus and, therefore,
more trouble again which KFOR cannot handle. If that is the train
of events predicted that might happen, what political steps would
be taken in the event of a deliberate attempt to ethnically cleanse
the Presevo Valley?
(Mr Cook) We very much share your concern about the
Presevo Valley and you are right to identify it as a potential
source of instability. I have to say that the immediate and pressing
prospect of that instability is from the activity of Albanian
hardliners infiltrating over the border in order to act as a source
of instability there. We have no evidence that they are themselves
directly stimulated by the KLA, although elements of them undoubtedly
have had former links with the KLA. I think the most valuable
and immediately important priority for us is to effectively try
to seal the border in particular circumstances. We will have to
do our best to achieve that, which is why the action was taken
yesterday to raid one of the headquarters on the Kosovo side of
the border. We are not aware of very large numbers who are active
going over the border to act as terrorist formations within the
Presevo Valley, but it is very important that we do everything
we can to minimise that and to deny them supplies.
494. If the result of this were to be very serious
reprisals within Kosovo, does the international community have
both the will and the capacity to take whatever forceful steps
are necessary to put down that sort of unrest in Kosovo?
(Mr Cook) My answer to that is going to be dictated
by my previous answer which is the immediate problem in the Presevo
Valley is Kosovar Albanian extremists going across the border
to create trouble in the hope that it will provoke Milosevic to
be repressive in the expectation that will provoke floods of refugees
coming to Kosovo, in the expectation that in turn will suck NATO
into a wider conflict with Southern Serbia. Ergo, if I were to
respond to what you are saying by saying that of course we will
take action, I would be giving them exactly the incentive, the
encouragement, that they want. We are saying to them very firmly
"if you create trouble over the other side of the border,
do not expect us necessarily to come riding to the rescue."
Chairman
495. UNMIK's mandate is renewable, would you
expect any problems from China or Russia?
(Mr Cook) Certainly not from Russia, which is presently
in KFOR. I would not anticipate difficulty with China.
496. The Funding Conference for the Stability
Pact, would you like to make any comment on our expectations?
(Mr Cook) I very much hope that we will be able to
come up with funding for the many worthy projects that have been
identified and we will certainly be going in a positive spirit
with a positive announcement.
497. As always you have been extremely frank
and helpful. May I also thank Mr Donnelly and Mr Jones Parry who
has had a rather easy ride today. Thank you very much indeed.
(Mr Cook) Just to ensure that I have an easier ride
in future can I just check if there is anything I have said since
we came back from the division that I need to correct? No.
498. You have been given a clean bill of health.
(Mr Cook) There is one point I need to put the record
right on. Earlier I referred to General Drewienkiewicz as the
Head of KVM, I am reminded that although that may be the way it
appears to me he was actually the Deputy Head of the KVM.
Chairman: Thank you very much indeed.
|
