Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Minutes of Evidence

Memorandum submitted by Professor Dando and Professor Pearson

Table 1

EVALUATION OF BTWC PROTOCOL REGIME

BTWC Protocol Regime Measure	Increased Transparency	Enhanced Confidence in Compliance	Applicability	Acceptability	Reliability	Sustainability	Cost-effectiveness	Potential for abuse	Deterrence of non-compliance	Promotion of Protocol universality
Mandatory declarations	Yes	Yes	To facilities to be declared	High (No CPI required)	Poor to Good (CBM experience)	Moderate	High (better than CWC as fewer required)	Moderate	Moderate	Low to Moderate
Declaration follow- up procedures
-randomly-selected visits	Increased	Increased	to facilities to be declared	High	High (improves quality of declarations)	Good	High (infrequent visits)	Low	Good	Moderate (through technical assistance extensions)
-declaration clarification procedures	Increased	Increased	Broader (to facilities that should be declared)	High	High (improves quality of declarations)	Good	High (Reduces over time)	Low	Good	Moderate (ensures equal obligations)
-voluntary visits	Possible	Possible	Some	Yes	Low	High	Moderate	Moderate	Low	Moderate (for assistance)
Measures to ensure submission of declarations	Increased	Increased	Yes	Yes	Depends on political will	Good	High	Low	Good	Moderate (ensures equal obligations)
Investigations	Yes-in area inspected	Yes	Very broad	Yes	Moderate- depends on initiation	Good	Good	Low*	High	Low
Article VII Measures	Moderate (more activities)	Moderate (more activities)	Potentially broad	Yes	Low	High	Moderate	Low	Moderate	High (concrete measures)

  *  Potential for abuse is assessed as low because the initiation of an investigation will be highly political and the provisions for dealing with abuse are severe.

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Prepared 2 August 2000