APPENDIX 10
Memorandum submitted by Dr Jude Howell,
Institute of Development Studies
The stability of the P.R.China is of crucial
important to UK-China relations. There are several domestic and
external issues which potentially threaten the continued social
and political stability of the P.R.China, not all of which can
be dealt with in this memorandum. First, there are the socio-economic
consequences of economic reform. Especially relevant are the growing
socio-economic inequality, increasing regional disparities and
the rise in unemployment as a result of state enterprise reform.
Although China has significantly reduced the numbers of people
living in poverty, new forms of urban poverty are emerging in
the context of reform. Second, there is the social unrest arising
from these consequences. In particular there are continual demonstrations
and protests by laid-off workers, who are dissatisfied with the
lack of an adequate safety-net, the decline in their economic
and social status and the termination of their "iron rice
bowl". This is contributing towards a scepticism about reform
amongst some social groups and a lack of confidence in the Communist
Party and its leadership.
Third, although the Chinese government is overhauling
the social welfare system so as to facilitate state enterprise
reform and develop new forms of protection, especially for the
vulnerable and poor, the process of institutional change lags
behind the pace of economic reform, aggravating further the sharpening
socio-economic inequalities. In any case it is not clear to what
extent the poor and vulnerable will be adequately protected under
the new systems. Fourth, China's imminent entry into the WTO will
create winners and losers. In certain industrial sectors it is
likely that more state enterprises will succumb to the pressure
of global competition, causing further lay-offs and social tension.
Fifth, the pace of political reform remains slow. The Chinese
Communist Party continues to respond defensively to, and to repress,
demands for political reform. Such a response serves only to heighten
tension and reflects the weakness of the Party.
Given these various sources of instability it
is crucial that mediating institutions and channels are developed
which can provide a way of expressing grievances and resolving
problems. There is an emerging "civil society" in China,
made up of various types of networks, NGOs and associations. Its
relations with the state are complicated and the organisations
of civil society vary in their degree of autonomy from and dependence
upon the state. The Chinese government takes an ambivalent stance
towards such groups. On the one hand it encourages their activities,
particularly in the fields of social welfare, business and trade;
and on the other hand, it obstructs the activities of groups which
it perceives as challenging government policy or the authority
of the Communist Party.
It should also be noted that the old mass organisations
such as the Communist Youth League, the All-China Women's Federation
and the All-China Federation of Trade Unions have undergone considerable
change in the reform period. Of particular significance is the
increasing priority they give to the interests of their constituents,
as opposed to those of the Communist Party.
The Chinese Communist Party continues to resist
any external pressure to move towards a multi-party system of
democracy. However, over the past decade it has promoted widespread
elections at the village level. More recently it has begun to
experiment with such competitive elections at the township level.
These steps towards political change should not be dismissed as
a mere political charade.
The Foreign Office is already supporting important
initiatives in the field of human rights, particularly with regard
to children's rights and the disabled. Given the importance of
mediating institutions and mechanisms to managing the negative
social effects of economic reform, it is crucial that opportunities
for exchange and dialogue are provided to both old and new intermediary
organisations. In particular the All-China Federation of Trade
Unions faces a number of challenges concerning its role in state
enterprise reform and its response to increasing globalisation.
It is an appropriate moment to encourage dialogue and open up
opportunities for exchange. The process of political reform will
continue to be gradual. Nevertheless the moves towards village
democracy and its extension upwards in the political system should
be supported and considered in line with elitist efforts to establish
alternative political parties.
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