CATEGORIES AND NUMBERS
19. Many people with a severe personality disorder
who might pose a risk to the public have been convicted of serious
criminal offences and are already detained in prison or secure
hospitals. Each year some of them are released into the community.
Others, living in the community, are convicted of new offences
and are sent to prison or hospital. Almost all the people who
would be affected by the Government's proposals will have a criminal
record and will be well-known to local agencies.[20]
They fall into these categories:
- serving a life sentence in prison
- serving a determinate (i.e. fixed term) sentence
in prison
- detained in a secure hospital
- living in the community
20. The Home Office estimates there are 1,400 such
people in prison for criminal offences. It is estimated that a
further 400 people are in NHS secure hospitals under the Mental
Health Act 1983. There may be between 300 and 600 individuals
living in the community who could be affected by these proposals.
Many of these will be people who have been in prison or hospital—we
were told that 380 are released from prison or discharged from
hospital each year. Perhaps 1,000 of the 1,400 in prison are serving
fixed (rather than life) sentences which, when completed, will
lead to their release. These figures do not distinguish the number
of such people who also have a mental illness and are classified
as such. In all about 2,500 individuals may be affected by these
proposals. An estimated 98% of them are men. The proposals do
not apply to those under 18 years of age, but we refer in paragraph
61 below to the early identification and treatment of people under
this age.
21. The number of those in the community who are
untreatable—and so might not be subject to detention under
the Mental Health Act 1983—could be as low as 30 to 40.[21]
This is based on a rough estimate that 10 to 15% of dangerous
people with a severe personality disorder are untreatable. It
appears that the number of people living in the community who
have never committed a serious offence and who pose a risk
to others and who are untreatable (and as such cannot be
detained under the Mental Health Act 1983) must be very small.
The possibility of indefinite detention for this group is the
most controversial of the proposals.
22. We sought to establish how many dangerous people
assessed as having severe personality disorder have killed members
of the public in the past decade. The Minister was unable to put
a precise figure on this. On the other hand, there are thought
to have been about 90 independent inquiries into killings by people
with a psychiatric history since 1994. This is consistent
with research indicating that about 20 of the 500 or so homicides
in the UK each year are committed by people with some mental illness.
It is not possible to determine how many of these people suffered
only from a severe personality disorder rather than some form
of mental illness.
23. Although the number of people likely to be directly
affected by these proposals seems generally to be of the order
of 2,500, we were warned that this might rise. If a new civil
court order is introduced, it may well be used more widely than
currently envisaged. In the Netherlands, an equivalent court order
(TBS) is popular with the courts. As a country with about one
quarter of the population of the UK, the Netherlands has some
1,200 sentenced individuals subject to such an order. A
practising and academic forensic psychiatrist told us "my
own view is that the numbers would expand very substantially and
that that would include expansion of the numbers of those not
currently facing a conviction".[22]
The police view is that "the volume of offenders in the community
who are perceived to pose a risk is increasing inexorably and
requires clear and unambiguous management if past failings are
not to be repeated".[23]
20 Q59
(Mind) and Appendix 1, para 26. Back
21 Q127
(Mr Boyle). Back
22 Q170
(Dr Eastman). Back
23 Response
by the Association of Chief Police Officers to the Home Office
consultation paper. Back
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