Examination of Witnesses (Questions 526
- 539)
TUESDAY 13 JULY 1999
DR LATIF
RASHID, MR
HOSHYAR ZEBARI
AND DR
SALAH SHAIKHLY
Chairman
526. I welcome all three witnesses before the
Committee this morning. I assure you that, as agreed, this is
an absolutely private meeting.[1]
We have a shorthand writer with us to take a note for our benefit.
That will not be released. I know that it is not easy for you
to come before a committee of the House of Commons in view of
the very great difficulties that you face. We are very grateful
to you for coming this morning to tell us about the impact of
sanctions in Iraq, how they are avoided and the way in which the
regime uses sanctions possibly to further its own ends. We need
to hear from you about these matters directly. Because your knowledge
about this matter is so deep we can learn from it and see what
can be done to make sanctions more effective or change the way
that they are imposed. Perhaps each of you would like to introduce
himself and tell us briefly to what group, if any, he belongs
and how it fits into the picture.
Witnesses subsequently agreed to publication of
most of the evidence.
(Dr Shaikhly) Thank you, Mr Chairman.
We are grateful for your invitation. Although you say that you
do not think it is easy for us, we are delighted that you have
asked us to this meeting. We shall say what we have to say and
you will have to draw your own conclusions. I am the official
spokesman for the INC. I am a member of a group called the Iraqi
National Accord in charge of media and foreign relations. In a
previous reincarnation I was a member of the Planning Board and
Deputy Minister of Planning in Iraq for 10 years. I also held
the post of Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq and President
of the Iraqi Fund for External Development, which is equivalent
to the position of Minister of State for Overseas Development
in this country.
Mr Robathan
527. In what year was that?
(Dr Shaikhly) From 1968 until 1978. Between 1978 and
1983 I also worked as assistant Secretary-General at the United
Nations as a regional director for the Arab region. For the past
10 years I have been involved in Iraqi opposition work, and I
hope that we will not have to wait too long before our work is
concluded, perhaps with your assistance and that of the Iraqi
people inside.
(Dr Rashid) I am a Kurd from Iraqi Kurdistan. At present,
I am a member of the Iraqi National Congress's Presidential Council.
I am also a representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
in Britain. By profession I am a civil and development engineer.
I spent about 10 years at the United Nations working for the Food
and Agricultural Organisation on various projects in the Middle
East and Africa. Unfortunately, up until the end of the second
Gulf War I had not been able to go back to Iraq because of the
nature of the regime. After the creation of Safe Haven I have
been able to visit Iraqi Kurdistan in the north on a regular basis.
We have contacts on a daily basis with those inside. Due to my
responsibilities in both political and diplomatic activities I
have represented both the Iraqi National Congress and the PUK
on various tasks and delegations. I have gone to the United Nations
and met the Security Council to deal with the sanctions and blockades
against Iraq. I have participated in most of the Iraqi opposition
activities and the Kurdish political activities outside Iraq.
(Mr Zebari) I am a sociologist by profession. I finished
my studies at the University of Essex. I have an MA in development
studies. I am also a member of the Politburo of the Kurdistan
Democratic Party. I have also been in charge of its international
relations since 1992. I have been involved in all delegations,
diplomatic activities and meetings regarding Iraqi development,
Iraqi opposition and Kurdish affairs. My family lives in Sulaymaniyah
in Iraq. It receives food rations under the UN Food Programme
which was created to relieve the suffering of the sanctions. I
am also with the INC and am a member of its Executive Council
in charge of INC's European relations.
Mr Robathan
528. You said that you were a member of the
Politburo. Does this mean that the KDP is communist in nature?
(Mr Zebari) No. We are talking only about a name.
The Israeli Labour Party also has a politburo. However, we are
not very conservative.
Chairman
529. The first matter about which we want to
ask you is the impact of sanctions on Iraq. Can you give us a
more up to date and precise description than we have yet managed
to receive from anybody else? First, can you deal with the humanitarian
effect of the sanctions? Secondly, what has been the impact on
infrastructure and development?
(Dr Rashid) As an Iraqi Kurd I do not think that any
responsible person would like sanctions or blockades to be imposed
on his country. The sanctions and blockades imposed by the international
community are there to achieve two goals: first, the ending of
the repressive regime against the Iraqi people as a whole. That
regime probably has a reputation second to none in the world at
the present. The regime came to power well before the invasion
of Kuwait. It has used gas against the Kurdish population in Iraqi
Kurdistan. We, the Kurdish people, have lost over 200,000 civilians,
mainly women and children due to the brutality of the regime.
The regime has admitted 180,000, but over the years we have lost
well over 200,000. Some of the figures that we give may sound
exaggerated, but they are based on facts, which can be verified.
In Iraqi Kurdistan we have lost well over 4,000 small to medium
size villages. Some areas with a population up to 100,000 have
been totally destroyed. Water supplies have been concreted over
and blocked; dwellings have been destroyed; and schools, mosques
and churches have been razed to their foundations. The majority
of the people have been forced to leave their area.
530. You are describing a devastating situation.
However, part of it must be due to direct action by the current
ruling regime in Iraq and some of it sanctions. Can you distinguish
between the two?
(Dr Rashid) None of what I have just described was
due to sanctions. This happened well before the Gulf War. Iraq
as a whole has suffered major catastrophes.
531. Can you concentrate on what happened as
a result of sanctions?
(Dr Rashid) Obviously, the country was bombed for
a period and that caused damage to civil structures, including
bridges and houses. The main damage was to military facilities.
Iraq has been a prosperous country but most of the income has
been spent on military hardware from chemical gases to military
equipment, biological research and—not to rule it out—even
nuclear facilities. Iraq is one of the richest countries in the
world if one considers all the economic, geographical, manpower
and environmental factors. It is the richest country in the Middle
East as far as natural resources are concerned. The sanctions
have had an effect but they are the result of the behaviour of
the regime. After 60 or 90 days at most the regime had the opportunity
to remove sanctions if the international community's will had
been accepted by Iraq and the UN resolutions were implemented.
Iraq has dragged its feet by denying the Iraqi population a better
life in economic, political and even social terms. At the same
time, it has challenged the international community and the UN
resolutions. We believe that sanctions as a whole are hurting
people but they are absolutely necessary to keep pressure on the
regime. That does not mean that the suffering of Iraqis cannot
be reduced or removed. We have two good examples. The Kurdish
region suffers not only from international sanctions but the Iraqi
blockade on the region and non-co-operation of neighbouring countries.
Things cannot be easily imported into or exported from the region.
Yet the conditions of ordinary people in Iraqi Kurdistan are many
times better than for the rest of Iraq, for the simple reason
that the United Nations is in charge of distributing food, medical
supplies and basic humanitarian needs while in the rest of Iraq
all kinds of obstacles are being mounted in the way of implementing
the assistance programmes. In the Kurdish region hospitals are
equipped with medical supplies and medicine. I do not think that
the situation can be considered as bad as might be realised. In
particular, following resolution 986—the oil for food programme—because
the local administrations in the regions have co-operated with
the UN, the situation in relation to food, medical supplies and
basic education is comfortable.
532. That is the situation in the Kurdish areas
in northern Iraq where the humanitarian assistance is being supervised
and distributed by United Nations personnel with the help of local
administration.
533. However, in other areas, in particular
in the central region, that is being distributed by the regime.
We have heard tales that this distribution is very imperfect.
Hospitals are left without medical supplies. Everybody is subject
to a rationing system and is dependent on the state for any food
that is distributed. Is that your understanding?
(Dr Rashid) That is right. But the UN and the international
community can do more to reduce the suffering. We in the Iraqi
Kurdistan, and the rest of the country, need development projects.
After 10 years, just food and medical supplies are not enough
for the population. We are creating generation after generation
of people who are without proper facilities in developmental terms.
By that I mean that there is a need to rebuild bridges and re-establish
communication systems, roads and factories. There is a weakness
along those lines as far as the UN programme is concerned.
(Dr Shaikhly) The origin of the present crisis in
Iraq dates from the years of the war between Iraq and Iran (1980
to 1988). The roots of what today appears to be the total collapse
of the economy lie in that period. The state had pursued the very
foolish economic policy of spending on war effort while pushing
consumer inflationary policies. To do that it continued to borrow
from international banks and governments to the tune of $110 million,
not counting the borrowing from the Gulf states which the present
Government regard as a gift because allegedly they had fought
on behalf of the Gulf states to stop Iranian expansion during
that period. Iraqi gross income dropped in 1980 from $54 billion
to $27 billion in 1988; in other words, it halved in 1980 prices.
We believe that Saddam occupied Kuwait in the first place to try
to grab some of the resources of Kuwait, thinking that he would
be allowed to do so. The war that ensued after that destroyed
the entire infrastructure—electricity generation, oil refineries,
a huge number of industrial and productive units, water treatment
plants, roads, bridges and telecommunication systems. That is
over and above the military infrastructure. Various estimates
have been made of the destruction. Some put it at around $250
billion; other estimates are $200 billion. But so that it would
have a lesser impact on the people the Government began to reduce
these figures every time an official made a statement at the United
Nations. Fortunately, Iraq has very good technicians. Within a
very short period most of the roads, bridges and telecommunication
and power generation systems were put back into working order.
This required some cannibalising; in other words, the spare parts
from one refinery that had been hit were used to mend another.
That occurred without any foreign assistance at all. On that side
one is proud that the country has such technicians. On the other
side, we have just under half of our generating capacity; in other
areas it is totally idle. As an economist I do not believe that
the ills of the Iraqi people at present are due to sanctions.
It is very unfortunate that we in opposition have not been able
to put this forward. The argument is a very complicated and intricate
economic one. Normally, the media do not have time to explain
such an argument. The question is whether lifting the sanctions
will help to improve the lot of the Iraqi people. Our problem
is one of deficit; in other words, the Government allege that
if they have the money they can improve the situation of the Iraqi
people. That is not correct. At present, Iraq is producing as
much oil as it can: 2.7 million barrels per day. You will know
that there are certain secondary treatments to be carried out
to produce oil; you have to pump water and gas, and every time
you do that you are liable to flood a lot of oilfields.
534. What was the production before the invasion
of Kuwait?
(Dr Shaikhly) It was 3.2 million barrels per day,
so we are within half a million barrels per day, which is quite
good. However, Iraq has the potential, albeit with enormous investment,
to go up to 6 to 7 million barrels a day. One can imagine why
the French and Russians are pressing for the lifting of sanctions.
They have contracts and want to go in and push it in order to
recover some of their debts. The underlying reasons for this are
quite obvious. However, at 2.7 million barrels a day Iraq has
a total annual income of roughly $14 billion, if it can sell the
whole production at current market prices. You will recall that
the United Nations made a proposal in 1991 under Resolution 706.
That was rejected. It proposed 712. That was rejected. It was
not until five years after cessation of hostilities that Iraq
accepted Resolution 986. Any government that is really concerned
for the wellbeing of its people would not leave them for five
years just to exhibit dying children to gain the sympathies of
the international community. Having accepted it, you can see what
is at the back of the Government's thinking. They will keep rejecting
it until such time as sanctions are lifted. Eventually, the Government
accepted 986 and there was a limited window. That window was increased
twice during the period, so much so that now Iraq is allowed more
or less a free hand at producing as much oil as it can and selling
it. Before it invaded Kuwait Iraq produced something in the region
of $500 million worth of medicines, drugs and medical equipment.
After the invasion it produced $600 million worth; in other words,
it is now allowed to import $100 million more than it did before
Iraq invaded Kuwait. But the health sector is still in total shambles.
Now people must pay up to 300 or 400 dinars just as an admission
ticket to one of the so-called popular surgeries that have been
opened all over the place. There are three levels: the local surgery,
where you really get nothing; the popular one, which is private/government;
and the private one. The salaries of doctors range between 8,000
dinars for the government ones and 80,000 dinars for the private
ones. What the dinar is worth at present is immaterial, but in
Iraq that is quite good money. Therefore, doctors have no incentive
to see people at the initial level. Ordinary people must pay.
A teacher does not earn more than 7,000 dinars and he has to supplement
his income by working as a taxi driver after work. At present,
there are 21,000 vacancies for primary school teachers. The situation
is not caused by sanctions but maladministration and mismanagement
of the economy. The only limitation now on Iraq's free trade lies
in trade in commodities which are regarded as furthering Saddam's
military programme. He wants a free hand. There is a fine dividing
line between what he is asking for from the United Nations and
what he has been given. I give another small example of how lifting
sanctions will not help the Iraqi people. As far as the existing
Government is concerned, the compensation fund, the cost of reparations
and the debt-servicing amount to about $11.5 billion a year. If
sanctions are lifted the Government will have a free hand. Countries
will come back and say, "Pay us the interest and the reparations
because now you are not operating under the UN mandate and there
are no sanctions." Out of the $14 billion, $11.5 billion
goes to paying debt, reparations and what-have-you. If we go back
to the beginning of 1990, the cost of just satisfying basic needs,
such as food, medication, water supply and treatment and so on,
was $9 billion; in other words, Iraq would still have a deficit
of about $6.5 billion per annum.
535. Therefore, it does not suit him to have
sanctions lifted?
(Dr Shaikhly) Obviously, outside this Committee I
am pushing a political agenda and wish that the Government changes
sooner rather than later. You are in the business of politics
and legislation. One hears statements from foreign governments,
but they cannot deal with this Government because it cannot be
trusted any longer. To have a conference in which there can be
a moratorium on debts and massive assistance to Iraq in rebuilding
its infrastructure, eliminating poverty and so on, one needs a
government that at least has a whiff of democracy, even if it
does not practise it; it needs to be kind to its people and have
a civilised relationship with its neighbours. These descriptions
do not fit the present regime. I should like to refer to the difference
in the administration of UN aid in the part controlled by Saddam
Hussein and the bit controlled by Iraqi Kurdistan. Malnutrition
and child mortality has dropped during in the past year under
986 by about five to seven per cent in Iraqi Kurdistan, while
it has worsened in areas under the control of Saddam Hussein.
Mr Robathan
536. We heard last week from a delegation of
bishops of the Church of England who had recently visited Iraq.
Have the bishops seen representatives of the opposition, such
as yourselves? If not, I think that they should do so. Secondly,
their suggestion to us was that to lift sanctions, except for
those applying to weapons, would lead to liberalisation and a
rapid downfall of the regime.
(Dr Shaikhly) The answer to the first question is
that they have not seen us. Just before we came here we were at
the Foreign Office talking to Mr Hoon. Although we knock on everybody's
door, some people for their own reasons do not see us. All we
want to give them is a bit of jargon but a lot of facts. We would
like to meet the bishops and anyone else who is willing to give
us 15 minutes of his time. I do not believe that lifting the sanctions
will weaken the position of the present Government. Those who
are pushing for the lifting of sanctions are countries like Russia
and France. They have an interest in the present regime continuing
in power. Saddam has been very clever in manipulating the death
of children. Very few people know that the bodies of children
that he parades on taxis every few days are the same bodies that
have been recycled time and again. People are not allowed to bury
their children for four months; they are kept in refrigerators
in the morgue.
Chairman
537. That must be very offensive to a Moslem,
is it not?
(Dr Shaikhly) It is, but he is no Moslem.
(Dr Rashid) We are terribly disappointed about the
official delegations that go to Iraq. They should at least try
to make an effort to see opposition groups or be allowed to investigate
freely during their visits. No delegation that goes to Iraq can
have free access to anywhere. Even when UN inspectors distribute
food or medical supplies they must work with Iraqi officials and
minders. Those were the conditions imposed by Iraq which, unfortunately,
the United Nations accepted. That is one of the main reasons for
rations not getting to the right place. We would like to see the
bishops and any other official group. We can help to make their
trips more successful.
(Mr Zebari) We are dealing with a unique regime. As
an opposition sometimes we find it difficult to explain the nature
of the Iraqi regime. NATO bombed Yugoslavia for 78 or 79 days
and the whole of the people supported Milosevic, but when the
war is over we now see demonstrations and rallies calling for
a change. In Iraq the people in the south and north rose immediately
after the Gulf War but were crushed. Sanctions have been instrumental
in increasing the suffering of the Iraqi people. They have become
a victim of the sanctions regime. At the same time, they are powerless.
We are trying to raise their capacity to bring about the desired
change. Under Resolution 687, sanctions are linked to the elimination
and destruction of weapons of mass destruction. We as Kurds and
as part of the Iraqi people are sympathetic to that resolution.
We have been the victims of Saddam's chemical warfare, as in Halabja.
Ann Clwyd has been working with us on this issue for many years.
She understands the pain and suffering that we have been through.
Here is a dilemma. The UN is asking the Security Council to say
that Saddam should be given a clean bill of health because he
no longer has the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction.
That is very difficult to verify. We have seen the cat and mouse
game that he played with UNSCOM. Effectively, that has ended and
he is free to develop and conceal these weapons and the sanctions
remain. It is now convenient for Saddam and the US, who take the
lead in maintaining sanctions as part of its containment policy,
to continue with sanctions. Now the UK resolution is trying to
lift the ceiling on Iraqi oil exports and allow some investment
by oil companies in the Iraqi oil sector. This is a new approach
to breaking the deadlock, but it is still unclear whether the
Iraqi Government will or will not co-operate with that resolution.
Ms King
538. What is the number of the resolution?
(Mr Zebari) It is still in draft, and it will be decided
upon by the end of July. So far seven countries and the Security
Council have sponsored it. Our problem inside Iraq is that sanctions
have affected every aspect of life: education, health, sanitation
and the whole fabric of society, which is deteriorating. Many
social conditions are changing. People are now unable to hold
wedding festivities because of the decline in their standard of
living. Other aspects of their lives are changing. We in the north
are also suffering from the same effects. We are not under the
control of central government because we are protected by an air
umbrella from the US and British planes that control the skies.
Safe Haven was promoted by John Major as a first step for better
security for our people. But because we are still part of Iraq
legally, we are not allowed to import any raw materials for our
factories, institutions or hospitals. We are also suffering from
continuation of the sanctions. Further, the regime has imposed
its own restrictions and embargoes on the supply of goods and
other items under Iraqi Government control to outside areas. Resolution
986 provided a unique opportunity to alleviate the suffering by
addressing this issue. However, that resolution is not sufficient
because it focuses on providing food and medicine. Many other
aspects, such as infrastructure and development, are not covered
by the resolution. There is delay in distribution because of UN
bureaucracy and Iraqi interference in the programme. That has
made it very difficult in those area where the Government are
directly distributing goods. The UN Secretary-General publicly
accused Iraq of holding medicines in store until they were expired.
Therefore, the regime is using sanctions as a form of control.
The rationing system is under their control and they can punish
any opposition or non-compliance with their instructions. The
people of Iraq are suffering a great deal, whatever may be the
political differences on this issue. But this is linked to the
behaviour of the region and the nature of the region which is
unique.
539. Everyone is agreed that the Iraqi people
are suffering. To what extent would Saddam Hussein allow any of
the materials that you need in the north to reach you if sanctions
were lifted? Would it have any practical effect? Referring to
the food for oil programme, notwithstanding the fact that I do
not believe that Saddam Hussein is willing to allow people to
benefit from it, how can the UN improve that programme? I have
been lobbied by constituents in East London who have driven to
Iraq to give medicines. They tell me that I have the blood of
Iraqi children on my hands because I am not pressing hard enough
for this particular food programme to be revised so that it is
more effective. I do not believe that that is so. All the blood
is on Saddam Hussein's hands. However, perhaps there are ways
in which it can be improved. I would be grateful to hear your
views on that.
(Mr Zebari) If the sanctions are lifted there is no
guarantee that the regime will not rebuild its weapons of mass
destruction or that it will change its behaviour. He has borne
all the confrontation with the international community, even if
he has been defeated. The lifting of sanctions will be the mother
of all victories for the regime. He has been dependent on trade
and dealing with the outside world, especially those countries
that now support the Iraqi Government like Russia, France and
many other European countries who have a stake in the country.
Many British companies have connections and contacts with the
Iraqi economy.
1 Witnesses subsequently agreed to publication of most
of the evidence. Back
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