Select Committee on Treasury Eighth Report


PROCEEDINGS OF THE COMMITTEE RELATING TO THE REPORT

Motion made, and Question proposed, That the Chairman's draft Report be read a second time, paragraph by paragraph.—(The Chairman.)

Amendment proposed, to leave out the words "Chairman's draft Report" and insert the words "draft Report proposed by Sir Teddy Taylor".—(Sir Teddy Taylor.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 4Noes, 6
Mr Michael FallonMr Nigel Beard
Mr David RuffleyMrs Liz Blackman
Sir Michael SpicerMr Jim Cousins
Sir Teddy TaylorMr Edward Davey
Mr David Kidney
Mr James Plaskitt



Another Amendment proposed, to leave out the words "Chairman's draft Report" and insert the words "draft Report proposed by Mr Michael Fallon, Mr David Ruffley and Sir Michael Spicer".—(Mr David Ruffley.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 4Noes, 6
Mr Michael FallonMr Nigel Beard
Mr David RuffleyMrs Liz Blackman
Sir Michael SpicerMr Jim Cousins
Sir Teddy TaylorMr Edward Davey
Mr David Kidney
Mr James Plaskitt


Main Question put.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 6Noes, 4
Mr Nigel BeardMr Michael Fallon
Mrs Liz BlackmanMr David Ruffley
Mr Jim CousinsSir Michael Spicer
Mr Edward DaveySir Teddy Taylor
Mr David Kidney
Mr James Plaskitt



Ordered, That the Chairman's draft Report be read a second time, paragraph by paragraph.

Paragraphs 1 to 4 read and agreed to.

Paragraph 5 read, amended and agreed to.

Paragraphs 6 to 8 read and agreed to.

Paragraph 9 read, amended and agreed to.

Paragraph 10 read and agreed to.

Paragraph 11 and 12 read, amended and agreed to.

Paragraph 13 read, as follows:

The implications for Stage Three of EMU of the decline in the external value of the euro were not considered significant by some witnesses. Credit Lyonnais UK argued that it was "wrong to judge the credibility of the ECB and the single currency in terms of the [external] value of the euro against the [US] dollar", adding that "Americans do not perceive the dollar in this way". Mr Bootle said that the depreciation of the external value of the euro should not be interpreted "as a sign that the currency is fundamentally flawed". Professor Begg observed: "internally ... things have worked well within Euro­land; externally we are dominated, especially in this country, by what we see on the foreign exchange markets which is that the euro is a complete disaster. I think that is a false perception". Nevertheless, as the President of the ECB has observed, "a persistently lower euro exchange rate may ... undermine the perception of the euro as a stable currency", a view shared by Commissioner Solbes, who agreed that the "psychological effect of [euro] weakening is not positive", although he hoped this was simply a consequence of a "period of volatility ... which is, of course, not permanent". He also thought that the external value of the euro mattered insofar as it had an effect on inflation. Dr Gros argued that the fall in the euro's external value to date was not seriously a "menace" to price stability and, as a consequence, the ECB was unlikely to intervene, adding that, if it did, intervention would need to be coordinated with other central banks to be effective. The ECB has, however, attempted to 'talk up' the euro, most notably in a statement by Dr Duisenberg in May 2000 in which he said that the ECB would "monitor the euro exchange rate very closely". The Institute of Directors concluded that "given the lack of major labour, tax and social security reforms ... in Euroland it is difficult to see the euro as a strong currency".

Amendment proposed, in line 21, at the end, to add the words "The balance of evidence, however, is that the fall in the external value of the euro has benefited economies in Euroland. Therefore too much has been made of the depreciation of the euro. We do not believe the euro's depreciation is a sign of any underlying weakness or failure.".—(Mr Edward Davey.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 2Noes, 8
Mr Nigel BeardMrs Liz Blackman
Mr Edward DaveyMr Jim Cousins
Mr Michael Fallon
Mr David Kidney
Mr James Plaskitt
Mr David Ruffley
Sir Michael Spicer
Sir Teddy Taylor


Another Amendment proposed, in line 21, at the end, to add the words "The balance of evidence, however, is that the fall in the external value of the euro has benefited economies in Euroland.".—(Mr Jim Cousins.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 4Noes, 6
Mr Nigel BeardMrs Liz Blackman
Mr Jim CousinsMr David Kidney
Mr Edward DaveyMr James Plaskitt
Mr Michael FallonMr David Ruffley
Sir Michael Spicer
Sir Teddy Taylor


Paragraph agreed to.

Paragraph 14 read, as follows:

Witnesses predicted that the external value of the euro would appreciate in due course, and this was also the prevailing view we found in Germany. However, as demonstrated at the launch of the euro, expectations of future exchange rates do not necessarily come to fruition. A recent IMF working paper calculated that, in January 1999, the euro was 7.4 per cent undervalued against the US dollar, yet, despite this apparent misalignment, the currency's deprecation continued throughout 1999. Mrs Rosewell wrote that the future course of an exchange rate could not be predicted on the basis of whether it seemed over- or under-valued. This may explain the degree of circumspection in regard to predicting when and by how much the external value of the euro might appreciate; while Dr Gros, of the CEPS, was confident that fundamental equilibrium exchange rate theory would support an appreciation of the external value of the euro, he was rather unspecific as to when this would take effect, merely saying that he expected the euro to appreciate over a ten year period.

An Amendment made.

Another Amendment proposed, in line 1, to leave out the word "would" and insert the word "might".—(Mr Michael Fallon.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 5Noes, 5
Mr Edward DaveyMr Nigel Beard
Mr Michael FallonMrs Liz Blackman
Mr David RuffleyMr Jim Cousins
Sir Michael SpicerMr David Kidney
Sir Teddy TaylorMr James Plaskitt


Whereupon the Chairman declared himself with the Noes.

Another Amendment proposed, in line 2, to leave out the words "and this was also the prevailing view we found in Germany".—(Mr Michael Fallon.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 6Noes, 3
Mr Michael FallonMr Nigel Beard
Mr David KidneyMrs Liz Blackman
Mr James PlaskittMr Jim Cousins
Mr David Ruffley
Sir Michael Spicer
Sir Teddy Taylor



Paragraph, as amended, agreed to.

Paragraph 15 read, as follows:

The European Central Bank was established on 1 June 1998, subsuming the role of the four and a half year old European Monetary Institute (EMI). The independence of the ECB is enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty, and Professor Buiter argued that the ECB was more independent than the Bank of England. The ECB has greater operational independence, as there are no reserve powers for monetary policy held by other institutions, and the ECB is also able to define what is meant in the Maastricht Treaty by price stability, which has led the Bank to set its own inflation target, something which has been questioned in recent weeks. The ECB's primary objective is to "maintain price stability" in the euro-area and, without prejudice to that, to "support the general economic policies in the Community with a view to contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Community".

Amendment proposed, in line 7, to leave out the words "something which has been questioned in recent weeks" and insert the words "an arrangement which is coming under question".—(Mr James Plaskitt.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 5Noes, 3
Mr Nigel BeardMrs Liz Blackman
Mr Edward DaveyMr Jim Cousins
Mr Michael FallonMr David Kidney
Mr James Plaskitt
Mr David Ruffley


Paragraph, as amended, agreed to.

Paragraph 16 read, as follows:

Monetary policy decisions are the responsibility of the ECB's Governing Council, which consists of the central bank governors of the eleven euro-area national central banks and six members of the Executive Board of the ECB. The size of the ECB Governing Council was criticised by some witnesses, particularly with a view to the implications of the enlargement of the euro-area. Mr Barty warned that, if the present system continues, whereby every member state's central bank governor sits on the Governing Council, this could make the body "extremely cumbersome indeed" and hinder efficient decision making. Solutions, including a strengthening of the Executive Board's role, a new mechanism to restrict the size of the Governing Council, or a move towards qualified majority decision making were offered as solutions by some witnesses. In Professor Buiter's view, the problem is accentuated because the ECB takes monetary policy decisions by consensus, rather than by majority voting. This, Mr Barty believed, in part explained why the ECB appeared "confused or lagging behind" in setting the appropriate interest rate. Commissioner Solbes emphasised that the structure of the Governing Council was enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty, and any change would have to be preceded by an amendment to the Treaty.

Amendment proposed, at the end, to add the words "The structure of the ECB Governing Council could be an important issue if and when more countries join Stage Three of EMU; and this is something to which we will return.".—(Mr Nigel Beard.)

Question put, That the Amendment be made.

The Committee divided.


Ayes, 5Noes, 5
Mr Nigel BeardMrs Liz Blackman
Mr Edward DaveyMr Jim Cousins
Mr James PlaskittMr Michael Fallon
Mr David RuffleyMr David Kidney
Sir Teddy TaylorMr Brian Sedgemore


Whereupon the Chairman declared himself with the Ayes.

Paragraph, as amended, agreed to.

Paragraphs 17 and 18 read and agreed to.


 
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Prepared 28 July 2000