CONCLUSION: TO WHAT EXTENT WOULD
MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE HAVE A DESTABILISING EFFECT ON THE REGION?
77. The FCO must of course be concerned about the
implications of the actions of one area in the region for other
areas. At the same time, however, policy must take account of
the interests and wishes of each part of the region. Failure to
do so will result in unsustainable arrangements. The risk is that
policy as it currently exists does not take account of the interests
and wishes of the Montenegrins, because regional concerns are
being given precedence. We have examined above some of the possible
implications of Montenegrin independence. It could be argued that
recognising Montenegroa republic which is not ethnically
homogenousas independent within its own borders could be
interpreted as encouraging ethnic groups within other former Yugoslav
republics to secede, particularly now that the threat of military
intervention by the Yugoslav army has receded.[145]
As Jonathan Steele told us: "The question of Bosnia is not
linked to Montenegro because the Republica Srpska was never a
constituent part of the old Yugoslav federation so that if Montenegro
now chose to go independent that that means that the people of
the Republica Srpska have some kind of similar right to become
independent is just not true. There is no linkage of that kind."[146]
78. The real problem underlying international concerns
is that, if Yugoslavia ceased to exist as a result of Montenegrin
secession,[147]
the status of Kosovo would need to be resolved with greater urgency,[148]
and independence for Kosovo would be a change of international
borders along ethnic lines without regional precedent, which might
well lead to secessionist aspirations among ethnic groups in Bosnia
and Macedonia. Jonathan Steele goes so far as to argue that the
international community is opposed to Montenegrin independence
entirely because of the Kosovo question, and that "we are
using Montenegro as a hostage to our failure to come up with a
proper policy for the future status of Kosovo. I think that annoys
people in Kosovo, it annoys people in Montenegro, and I think
it is a foolish policy and they should change it". A number
of our witnesses expressed the view that it would be invidious
to hold Montenegro's future hostage to the West's difficulties
in finding a solution for Kosovo.[149]
79. Jonathan Steele believes that, while Montenegrin
independence might have an effect on Kosovo and Macedonia, it
is impossible to say with any certainty what this effect would
be: "The domino effect assumes things that are inevitable:
the first domino hits the second, the second hits the third, the
fourth. There is no inevitability [in this case]."[150]
If there is no 'domino effect', then each issue "should be
treated on its merits. We should have a proper policy towards
Kosovo, a proper policy towards Macedonia, and a proper policy
towards Montenegro."[151]
There clearly is no inevitable 'domino effect' as such. The recent
violence in Macedonia has occurred regardless of the status of
Montenegro. But this is not to say that Montenegrin independence
might not have an exacerbating effect on such situations. The
question is how serious this effect would be, and whether it should
lead the international community to oppose Montenegrin independence.
80. It is understandable, given the violence which
followed the independence of Croatia and Bosnia, that the international
community should be concerned about the possible fall-out of yet
another declaration of independence. But the situation has changed
radically with the fall of Milosevicone of the main instigators
of the violence. As the FCO has written, the fall of the Milosevic
regime has removed a "source of political destabilisation,
always potential and sometimes real."[152]
It should not be assumed that the current situation contains only
risks. It also opens up a number of potential opportunities. We
conclude that while Montenegrin independence would be likely to
lead to increased demands for greater autonomy by other groups
in the region, the problems caused by this would be slight when
compared with other factors contributing to regional instability.
102