APPENDIX 3
Supplementary memorandum submitted by
Royal Armouries International PLC (PAC 00-01/177) (continued)
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 350,000 WITH
DELAYED CLARENCE DOCK BENEFITS
| 2003
| 2004 | 2005
| 2006 | 2007
|
| 250,000 | 270,000
| 290,000 | 310,000
| 330,000 |
| 2,320,699 | 2,436,557
| 2,556,756 | 2,681,443
| 2,810,766 |
| 0 | 75,600
| 205,200 | 338,043
| 447,572 |
| -2,030,522 | -2,092,131
| -2,129,611 | -2,267,017
| -2,382,407 |
| 290,177 | 420,026
| 632,345 | 752,469
| 875,932 |
| -12,116,123 | -12,479,259
| -12,732,127 | -12,786,311
| -12,723,293 |
| -653,313 | -672,894
| -686,529 | -689,451
| -686,053 |
| 290,177 | 420,026
| 632,345 | 752,469
| 875,932 |
| -12,479,259 | -12,732,127
| -12,786,311 | -12,723,293
| -12,533,414 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 400,000 WITH ALL FREE ADMISSIONS
WITH DELAYED CLARENCE DOCK BENEFITS
Dock benefits
| 2003 | 2004
| 2005 | 2006
| 2007 |
| 300,000 | 350,000
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 |
| 2,461,772 | 2,667,916
| 2,882,828 | 2,954,899
| 3,028,771 |
| 0 | 98,000
| 247,000 | 364,729
| 468,847 |
| -2,062,829 | -2,145,114
| -2,204,284 | -2,329,641
| -2,432,332 |
| 398,943 | 620,802
| 925,544 | 989,987
| 1,065,286 |
| -12,073,678 | -12,325,759
| -12,369,575 | -12,111,010
| -11,774,061 |
| -651,025 | -664,617
| -666,980 | -653,038
| -634,869 |
| 398,943 | 620,802
| 925,544 | 989,987
| 1,065,286 |
| -12,325,759 | -12,369,575
| -12,111,010 | -11,774,061
| -11,343,644 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 350,000 WITH DELAYED CLARENCE
DOCK BENEFITS
| 2008 | 2009
| 2010 | 2011
| 2012 |
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 |
| 2,944,880 | 3,018,502
| 3,093,964 | 3,171,313
| 3,250,596 |
| 464,992 | 476,617
| 488,532 | 500,746
| 513,264 |
| -2,455,438 | -2,515,674
| -2,577,416 | -2,640,701
| -2,705,569 |
| 954,434 | 979,445
| 1,005,081 | 1,031,358
| 1,058,292 |
| -12,533,414 | -12,254,794
| -11,936,141 | -11,574,668
| -11,167,428 |
| -675,814 | -660,791
| -643,609 | -624,118
| -602,159 |
| 954,434 | 979,445
| 1,005,081 | 1,031,358
| 1,058,292 |
| -12,254,794 | -11,936,141
| -11,574,668 | -11,167,428
| -10,711,295 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 400,000 WITH ALL FREE ADMISSIONS
WITH DELAYED CLARENCE DOCK BENEFITS
| 2008 | 2009
| 2010 | 2011
| 2012 |
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 |
| 3,104,491 | 3,182,103
| 3,261,655 | 3,343,197
| 3,426,777 |
| 480,568 | 492,582
| 504,897 | 517,519
| 530,457 |
| -2,491,990 | -2,553,140
| -2,615,818 | -2,680,064
| -2,745,915 |
| 1,093,069 | 1,121,545
| 1,150,734 | 1,180,652
| 1,211,319 |
| -11,343,644 | -10,862,236
| -10,326,393 | -9,732,469
| -9,076,601 |
| -611,661 | -585,703
| -556,809 | -524,784
| -489,419 |
| 1,093,069 | 1,121,545
| 1,150,734 | 1,180,652
| 1,211,319 |
| -10,862,236 | -10,326,393
| -9,732,469 | -9,076,601
| -8,354,702 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 350,000 WITH DELAYED CLARENCE
DOCK BENEFITS
| 2013 | 2014
| 2015 | 2016
| 2017 |
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 |
| 3,331,861 | 3,415,158
| 3,500,537 | 3,588,050
| 3,677,751 |
| 526,096 | 539,248
| 552,729 | 566,548
| 580,711 |
| -2,772,058 | -2,840,209
| -2,910,065 | -2,981,666
| -3,055,058 |
| 1,085,899 | 1,114,197
| 1,143,201 | 1,172,931
| 1,203,405 |
| -10,711,295 | -10,202,960
| -9,638,917 | -9,015,456
| -8,328,647 |
| -577,564 | -550,154
| -519,740 | -486,122
| -449,089 |
| 1,085,899 | 1,114,197
| 1,143,201 | 1,172,931
| 1,203,405 |
| -10,202,960 | -9,638,917
| -9,015,456 | -8,328,647
| -7,574,331 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 400,000 WITH ALL FREE ADMISSIONS
WITH DELAYED CLARENCE DOCK BENEFITS
| 2013 | 2014
| 2015 | 2016
| 2017 |
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 |
| 3,512,446 | 3,600,257
| 3,690,264 | 3,782,520
| 3,877,083 |
| 543,719 | 557,312
| 571,244 | 585,526
| 600,164 |
| -2,813,413 | -2,882,599
| -2,953,514 | -3,026,201
| -3,100,707 |
| 1,242,752 | 1,274,970
| 1,307,995 | 1,341,844
| 1,376,541 |
| -8,354,702 | -7,562,444
| -6,695,248 | -5,748,268
| -4,716,376 |
| -450,494 | -407,775
| -361,014 | -309,952
| -254,312 |
| 1,242,752 | 1,274,970
| 1,307,995 | 1,341,844
| 1,376,541 |
| -7,562,444 | -6,695,248
| -5,748,268 | -4,716,376
| -3,594,148 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 350,000 WITH DELAYED CLARENCE
DOCK BENEFITS
| 2018 | 2019
| 2020 | 2021
| 2022 |
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 |
| 3,769,695 | 3,863,937
| 3,960,536 | 4,059,549
| 4,161,038 |
| 595,229 | 610,110
| 625,363 | 640,997
| 657,022 |
| -3,130,284 | -3,207,392
| -3,286,426 | -3,367,437
| -3,450,473 |
| 1,234,640 | 1,266,656
| 1,299,472 | 1,333,109
| 1,367,587 |
| -7,574,331 | -6,748,107
| -5,845,315 | -4,861,028
| -3,790,031 |
| -408,415 | -363,865
| -315,185 | -262,112
| -204,362 |
| 1,234,640 | 1,266,656
| 1,299,472 | 1,333,109
| 1,367,587 |
| -6,478,107 | -5,845,315
| -4,861,028 | -3,790,031
| -2,626,806 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 400,000 WITH ALL FREE ADMISSIONS
WITH DELAYED CLARENCE DOCK BENEFITS
| 2018 | 2019
| 2020 | 2021
| 2022 |
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 |
| 3,974,010 | 4,073,361
| 4,175,195 | 4,279,575
| 4,386,564 |
| 615,168 | 630,547
| 646,311 | 662,468
| 679,030 |
| -3,177,074 | -3,255,351
| -3,335,585 | -3,417,824
| -3,502,120 |
| 1,412,104 | 1,448,557
| 1,485,921 | 1,524,219
| 1,563,474 |
| -3,594,148 | -2,375,844
| -1,055,395 | 373,618
| 1,917,982 |
| -193,800 | -128,108
| -56,908 | 20,146
| 103,420 |
| 1,412,104 | 1,448,557
| 1,485,921 | 1,524,219
| 1,563,474 |
| -2,375,844 | -1,055,395
| 373,618 | 1,917,982
| 3,584,876 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 350,000 WITH DELAYED CLARENCE
DOCK BENEFITS
| 2023 | 2024
| 2025 | 2026
| 2027 |
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 |
| 4,265,064 | 4,371,691
| 4,480,983 | 4,593,007
| 4,707,833 |
| 673,447 | 690,283
| 707,540 | 725,229
| 743,360 |
| -3,535,585 | -3,622,824
| -3,712,245 | -3,803,901
| -3,897,849 |
| 1,402,927 | 1,439,150
| 1,476,278 | 1,514,335
| 1,553,344 |
| -2,626,806 | -1,365,519
| 0 | 1,476,278
| 3,070,216 |
| -141,640 | -73,630
| 0 | 79,602
| 165,549 |
| 1,402,927 | 1,439,150
| 1,476,278 | 1,514,335
| 1,553,344 |
| -1,365,519 | 0
| 1,476,278 | 3,070,216
| 4,789,109 |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 400,000 WITH ALL FREE ADMISSIONS
WITH DELAYED CLARENCE DOCK BENEFITS
| 2023 | 2024
| 2025 | 2026
| 2027 |
| 400,000 | 400,000
| 400,000 |
| |
| 4,496,228 | 4,608,634
| 4,723,850 |
| |
| 696,006 | 713,406
| 731,241 |
| |
| -3,588,523 | -3,677,086
| -3,767,863 |
| |
| 1,603,711 | 1,644,954
| 1,687,227 |
| |
| 3,584,876 | 5,381,887
| 7,317,037 |
| |
| 193,300 | 290,197
| 394,542 |
| |
| 1,603,711 | 1,644,954
| 1,687,227 |
| |
| 5,381,887 | 7,317,037
| 9,398,807 |
| |
VISITOR NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AT 350,000 WITH DELAYED CLARENCE
DOCK BENEFITS
| 2028 | 2029
| 2030 | 2031
| 2032 |
| 350,000 | 350,000
| 350,000 |
| |
| 4,825,528 | 4,946,167
| 5,069,821 |
| |
| 761,944 | 780,992
| 800,517 |
| |
| -3,994,145 | -4,092,848
| -4,194,020 |
| |
| 1,593,327 | 1,634,311
| 1,676,318 |
| |
| 4,789,109 | 6,640,670
| 8,633,052 |
| |
| 258,234 | 358,072
| 465,503 |
| |
| 1,593,327 | 1,634,311
| 1,676,318 |
| |
| 6,640,670 | 8,633,052
| 10,774,873 |
| |
NOTE 4: A SUMMARY BY DCMS OF REPORTS PRESENTED TO THE
ROYAL ARMOURIES AND ROYAL ARMOURIES INTERNATIONAL PLC 1991-2000
A. PRE-LAUNCH
REPORTS
Strategy 2000: Public Attitudes and Reactions—by MORI
for the Royal Armouries—February 1991
The report sets out the results of a survey to establish
the critical mass required for the success of the Royal Armouries
as a visitor attraction out of the Tower and the admission charges
that would optimise visitors and visitor income. The report concluded
that:
48 per cent of respondents would visit the museum were it
located within an hour of their home;
16 per cent would travel further;
four out of five respondents would pay £5 for a year's
admission;
just over half would pay £10 for a year's admission;
and
a Leeds site would offer a visitor potential of 1.2 million
assuming an annual season ticket of £5.
The Royal Armouries at Clarence Dock—by MORI for the
Royal Armouries—August 1992
The report concluded that "interest in the new Royal
Armouries is high, despite only modest interest in the subject
of Arms and Armour per se . . . at a price of £5 per single
adult entry, potential attendance in the opening year might be
a little over 900,000 visitors." MORI found that visitors
seemed to be very price-sensitive ie at £6 the Armouries
would receive 500,000 and at £7 visitors were likely to be
around 250,000.
Royal Armouries at Clarence Dock—Validation of Visitor
Income and Potential: by Grant Leisure for the Royal Armouries—October
1992
The report recommended an adult price of £5 (£3
for children over four and under 16). It said that "the price
has been well-supported by consumer research but there is sharp
drop-off in predisposition to visit once the £5 price level
is exceeded." The report forecast 1,157,000 visitors in the
first year rising to 1,299,000 in year three.
The Royal Armouries in Leeds—Initial Briefing Memorandum:
by Schroders for the Royal Armouries—March 1993
The purpose of this report was to inform potential investors
of the background, status and proposed structure of the Royal
Armouries' Leeds project and to provide an outline of the proposed
financing plan. Based on the work of MORI the report envisaged
a build up, over three years, to a visitor figure of 1,300,000
per annum, with all illustrative visitor revenue projections annually
increasing with inflation.
Gardner Merchant/Heritage Projects—Proposal for Operational
Management and Visitor Validation for RAI plc—September
1993
Envisaged 650,000 visitors in 1996.
Confirmed that operation would be in partnership with Heritage
Projects, the designers and operators of the Jorvik Viking Centre
(which, at the time was attracting in excess of 900,000 visitors
per annum) and a number of other major historic leisure projects.
A presentation to the Royal Armouries: by Barrington Johnson
Lorains for RAI plc/Royal Armouries re Advertising Strategy—January
1995
Envisaged 800,000 visitors per annum.
Royal Armouries, Leeds Benchmark Research: by MEW for RAI plc—March
1995
Forecast:
1,083,000 visitors at £5.95 per single adult ticket;
850,000 visitors at £6.95 per single adult ticket; and
569,000 visitors at £7.95 per single adult ticket.
B. POST-LAUNCH
REPORTS
The Royal Armouries in Leeds—An independent review of
the 1997 Marketing Strategy and Plans: by Lifetime Business Group
for RAI plc and 3i Group plc—February 1997
Concluded that the original MORI estimates were unrealistically
optimistic. Insufficient regard was given to the time gap between
"intention" and "action" ie "the lag
that always exists between a potential customer interest in a
new product and the practical opportunity to actually experience
it—especially if that purchase/experience requires a drive
of an hour or more." Penetration rates for the 0 to 30 minute
market were 8 per cent, for the 30 minute to one hour market 1.6
per cent and for the one hour to two hour market 0.6 per cent.
This compared with pre-launch forecasts of 8 per cent for the
0 to one hour market and 2.8 per cent for the one hour to two
hour market. Typical visitors were much more local, more middle
class (ABC1 families with children) and more car-dependent than
was envisaged originally. The report also concluded that: "price
does not seem to be a major reason for a non-visit . . . there
is evidence to show that the Royal Armouries is currently under-pricing
itself, in peak times of demand, in spite of acknowledging that
it charges one of the highest rates for any museum in the UK."
Review of Operations and Potential for Performance Enhancement
at the Royal Armouries Museum, Leeds: by Economics Research Associates
for RAI plc and the Bank of Scotland—March 1997
Recommended a number of options to increase revenues and
enhance performance:
— creation of a softer image to make the museum
more attractive to women;
— conversion of parts of the ground floor to increase
commercial potential; and
— increase price of late entry tickets.
The report concluded that the first year's marketing effort
has generated strong penetration rates within the one hour market
. . . a significant marketing effort should be made to expand
the appeal into the large one to two hour catchment market.
Review of Performance and Assessment of Future Potential for
the Royal Armouries Museum by Economics Research Associates for
RAI plc—January 1998
Concluded that the concept-testing methodology employed by
MORI and MEW where a respondents anticipated behaviour is translated
into future patterns, is one which is commonly used in the fast-moving
consumer goods and other retail product areas. But it is not appropriate
as a primary measure in projecting attendance levels at a leisure
attraction. ERA recommended the market penetration approach. This
takes the market penetration rates achieved by comparable attractions
and subjects them to factors specific to the project such as attraction
size, content, theme, design, quality, location, catchment market,
competitive environment, investment levels and experience of the
management team. ERA concluded that annual attendance at the Royal
Armouries museum in Leeds would range from 410,000 to 565,000
(once the Clarence Dock development was complete).
|
