Annex 2
The Centre for Social and Economic Research
on the Global Environment
1. Research on climate change has been a
central theme of both economic and interdisciplinary research
within CSERGE. The objectives have been to examine the causes
and consequences of climate change at global and local scales
and to derive policy implications for the UK EU and other regions.
The research has led to theoretical development and understanding
of climate as a global environmental issue as well as insights
into the fundamental role of mitigation and adaptation strategies
and resilience capacity across different spatial and temporal
scales. The importance of this research area reflects the reality
that climate change is a key long term environmental regulatory
issue. This is both because of the importance of adaptation to
increase climate risks and because decoupling of economic activity
from energy intensity is an important sustainability goal in both
climate and other contexts. Some of the most important collaborative
links in this field have come through interdisciplinary research
such as with the Climatic Research Unit and Centre for Environmental
Risk at UEA. These links have ensured that researchers from both
social and natural science traditions have developed understanding
of the broader climate change policy and scientific debates while
ensuring that they remain at the forefront of cutting edge developments.
2. This research work has not concentrated
specifically on the question of the scientific validity or otherwise
of the global climate circulation models. However, much of the
work has highlighted the need for "regional" scale climate
predictions and problems caused by the current uncertainty that
surrounds the magnitude and significance of climate change impacts
at the "regional" scale and below. The Centre has also
looked at decision-making procedures given the existence of this
scientific and social/political uncertainty.
3. CSERGE's work has not been orientated
towards an assessment of alternative scientific explanation of
climate change. However, it has been investigating the interconnections
between the different factors that in combination provide the
impacts profile. For example, there are strong impacts links between
climate change and ozone depletion in the context of lifestyle
and recreation/tourism adaptations and potential human health
risks (see CSERGE Working Paper PA 98-05: I Langford, S Moulden-Horrocks,
R J Day, A L McDonald, I Bateman and C Saunders, 1998. Perceptions
of Risk of Malignant Melanoma Skin Cancer from Sunlight: a comparative
study of young people in the UK and New Zealand, pp 20).
4. The majority of CSERGE work in the area
of climate since 1991 has focused on two issues—the relevance
of a climate change agreements as a international means of reducing
potential impacts; and the impacts of climate change. By way of
illustration, research on the first of these (mitigating measures
and reduction of emissions explored both emissions and policies
directly as well as exploring the integration of emission reduction
with other environmental goals—the so-called secondary benefits
of climate control and the double dividend debates. This latter
work demonstrated empirically that policy measures in the European
context are desirable from a broad environmental perspective,
hence contributing to the debate on potential carbon taxes in
Europe. Policy research in the period following the signing of
the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in 1992 also
demonstrated potential double dividend benefits of carbon taxes.
5. A large amount of research concentrated
on the important interaction of greenhouse gases with land use.
This issue highlighted the equity and historical responsibility
issues in the causes of climate change. Comprehensive research
in this area developed an understanding of policy measures and
models of the carbon cycle through changing land use. The first
inventory of total carbon fluxes from the UK which included land
use change, hence relevant to commitments under the FCCC, was
published in Ambio. Interdisciplinary modelling showed
that UK afforestation and other land use change in the post war
period had been a net source of carbon to the atmosphere rather
than a sink. Policy measures for methane reduction were also considered.
These were published in interdisciplinary journals and in a major
monograph entitled Land Use and the Causes of Global Warming.
6. The major economic efficiency argument
for policy action on climate change requires an assessment of
both costs and benefits of avoiding potential climate change impacts.
CSERGE researchers pushed forward the boundaries of knowledge
in this area by developing models based on stochastic distributions
of likely impacts rather than previously used assessments of mean
or best guess impacts, which the climate change scientific community
had highlighted as being inadequate. At the global scale this
work generated controversy in the political context of the IPCC,
but argued categorically that economic analysis has a clear role
to play in policy development and understanding of the issue.
CSERGE has looked further into the efficiency and equity trade-offs
that were highlighted during the IPCC debates. Major papers in
this area were published in interdisciplinary journals such as
Environment and Planning A. Energy Policy, Energy Journal,
Environment and Development Economics, and Environmental
and Resource Economics, and a successful Earthscan volume
entitled Valuing Climate Change: the Economics of the Greenhouse.
7. CSERGE research on climate change has
been responsive to the changing policy environment and in tandem
has developed theoretical insights. The FCCC through the 1990s
has shown that monitoring and enforcement and implementation are
key issues. In addition, the 1995 IPCC second assessment report
concluded that there was perceptible anthropogenic climate change
and hence the world is committed to future uncertain impacts.
Thus the CSERGE climate research agenda has developed in the current
phase of CSERGE to examine issues of compliance and monitoring
and understanding of adaptation and resilience of social systems.
8. Research funded by the GEC Programme
has focused on developing an interdisciplinary understanding of
social vulnerability to climate change. The empirical part of
this work has focused on Vietnam and small island states. CSERGE
was a major contributor to the Commonwealth Secretariat's work
on vulnerability, including the vulnerability to climate change.
Through present day and historical analogy the Vietnam work has
demonstrated that the social resilience to climate change is determined
by the structure of the economy mediated by the institutional
context. In Vietnam this institutional context is evolving rapidly
in the transition from central planning to market economy and
has been demonstrated to lead to significant changes in dimensions
of vulnerability and social resilience to climatic extremes. Vietnam
is an agrarian centrally planned country in the process of transition
to a market economy. The impact of short term variability and
extreme events in Vietnam is maximised when it coincides with
external social forces which cause disruptive change. The analysis
has highlighted the winners and losers in adaptation, based on
the concepts of entitlement and social vulnerability. Vulnerability
is defined as the exposure of individuals or collective groups
to livelihood stress as a result of the impacts of climate extremes
and climate change. The field based research in a district in
northern Vietnam indicated that baseline social vulnerability
has been increased because of the economic transitions to a market
economy ie the breakdown of collective community-scale action
to mitigate coastal flooding and erosion; incremental income inequality,
and increased investment in enterprises such as aquaculture, which
in some ways is more at risk than more traditional farming enterprises.
Offsetting these trends are other institutional changes which
are serving to decrease vulnerability on a longer term basis.
This research was appraised as "outstanding" which signifies
"high quality research making an important contribution to
the development of the subject" (ESRC evaluation, March 1997).
The wider development context and the management of environmental
risk in the context of rapid economic growth is explored for this
critical region in a forthcoming volume in the Routledge Global
Environmental Change series.
9. Research on the amenity value of climate
has focused on using revealed preference techniques to uncover
the value of marginal changes in climate variables to households,
agriculture and British tourists. A paper has analysed the links
between land prices in Italy and seasonal values of climate variables
such as sunshine, mean temperature and precipitation. In addition
research sponsored by the Department of the Environment (now Department
of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, DETR) has explored
present day analogies to climate change by examining the impact
of the 1995 hot summer in the UK in an interdisciplinary study
including health, agriculture, tourism and other sectors; and
has appraised the impact of mean sea level changes on the UK coast.
10. CSERGE has also undertaken research
which integrates several academic disciplines, such as epidemiology,
psychology, economics and statistics to gain insight into the
links between social, economic and health impacts of global issues
such as climate change and ozone depletion. These impacts are
intricately interlinked, as perception of risks feeds into attitudinal
and behavioural responses to environmental threats which have
impacts on people's health and socio-economic status. Methodologies
have been applied from epidemiology, using population—averaging
approaches to estimate the risk burden from a particular environmental
factor; from psychology and economics using individual-based approaches;
and from sociology and anthropology, including cultural theory
using group-based approaches. These results have then been integrated
to give a more holistic picture of the nature of environmental
risks, the potential impacts on a particular society and the responses
which can be made to counteract adverse effects.
11. Epidemiologically, CSERGE has investigated
the health impacts of climate change, such as changes in winter
and summer morbidity and mortality from changes in temperature
due to global warming, and has undertaken meta-analysis of air
pollution. Particular attention has been focused on food poisoning
risks, and evidence points to the fact that higher summer temperatures
increase the risks to consumers right through the food production
process, from the infection burden carried by animals on their
way to slaughter, through the food processing industry to the
consumer and retail outlets. The impacts of exposure to ultra-violet
radiation from sunlight and the incidence of malignant melanoma
skin cancer have also been investigated, and different relationships
between exposure and incidence have been found in different European
countries. These differences depend on attitude to sunbathing,
behaviour in hot weather, clothing style and genetic differences,
with fair-skinned populations in Northern Europe being at particular
risk. Research in CSERGE in collaboration with the Medical Research
Council (MRC) Cell Mutation Unit, University of Sussex, has also
linked sunlight exposure with increased mutations in human cell
lines which may be important in other forms of cancer. Another
research strand has focused on the social burden and health impacts
of a variety of air pollutants.
12. To date many studies have worked on
a combination of future climates scenarios based on present human
activities. However, as climate changes, so will the underlying
economic, social and environmental contexts in which change is
experienced, in a "co-evolutionary" fashion. A new area
of research has developed within CSERGE in the last year on the
use of scenarios as a tool for exploring adaptation and vulnerability
to climate change. UK scenarios developed by SPRU for the Office
of Science and Technology were adapted for use in three related
projects. The first of these was a DETR funded project to develop
non-climate scenarios for a more comprehensive assessment of future
possibilities, intended to aid climate change impacts research
and national and regional policy-making. Secondly, socio-economic
and climate scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were developed for
the East Anglia region in conjunction with the Climatic Research
Unit at the University of East Anglia. Expertise of regional stakeholders
were called upon in individual interviews and two group workshops
to assess the usefulness and practicality of the scenario approach,
as a research tool and an aid for decision makers in thinking
about the future climate with a view to their present activities.
Also, the framework of the scenarios developed at UK level was
used as a basis for setting out a range of possible "futures"
of Europe in terms of social, economic and political characteristics.
The aim was to spark discussion among policy-makers and actors
on the impact of their operations in the long term and possible
changes to their current operations in the view of different possible
future outcomes. So far this work has been written up in a report
on the ACACIA project (A Concerted Action Towards a Comprehensive
Climate Impacts and Adaptation Assessment for the European Union),
Parry, M, (ed,) 1999. Assessment of the Potential Effects of Climate
Change in Europe (ACACIA Project), October 1999, and in a Report
with SPRU to the DETR. It will also feature in contributions to
the IPCC Third Assessment Report.
13. Interdisciplinary coastal zone management
research at CSERGE, bridging socio-economic and natural sciences,
has been undertaken on a range of geographical and institutional
levels (global, regional, national and local levels) through partnerships
with a number of organisations and networks. At a global level,
for example, the Centre remains a leading contributor to initiatives
such as the Coastal Zone (LOICZ). Core project of the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). One of the long-term objectives
of this initiative is to assess how the responses of coastal systems
to global change will affect the habitation and use by humans
of coastal areas and to develop further the socio-economic basis
for the integrated management of the coastal environment. CSERGE
has been and continues to be instrumental in the development of
such methodologies (including the publication of guidelines/handbooks)
for evaluation in integrated coastal zone management in order
to assist managers and decision-makers. These methodologies are
currently being assessed utilising case studies by institutes
across the globe.
14. Of the studies undertaken at a national
level one example is a project, still in progress, evaluating
trade-offs between users or marine protected areas in the Caribbean.
Islands such as these are heavily dependent on their natural resource
base and as such are vulnerable to environmental change. This
work is developing a methodology for assessing conflicts and trade-offs
between different uses and user groups thereby providing information
about development options to decision makers. Funded by the DfID
this work builds on collaborative work between the UEA (Overseas
Development Group, School of Development Studies), CSERGE and
the University of the West Indies, St Augustine, Department of
Zoology.
Dissemination
15. Central to CSERGE's activities is a
commitment to communicating and sharing the outputs of its academic
research programme as widely as possible and especially to stakeholders
and decision-makers in relevant sectors. CSERGE staff have therefore
devoted much time and effort to creating and maintaining effective
communication and dissemination links. The purpose of the dissemination
strategy is to cater for the wide variety of needs displayed by
the Centre's user groups, to communicate the findings of the research
programmes in different formats and through a range of channels;
to be flexible enough to adapt to the changing requirements of
established users; and to identify and service new users. CSERGE
also sees the sharing of research findings and ideas within the
ESRC's GEC Research Programme and other relevant networks as an
important component of its work.
16. Consequently, CSERGE climate change
research findings have been disseminated widely via a combination
of publications of the highest academic standard in peer-reviewed
journals and as books/book chapters; publications which are specifically
targeted at broader non-academic audiences; public lectures, seminars,
conference presentations, training courses and direct advice to
government, NGOs, business and other users; networking with others
(locally, nationally and internationally), notably in government,
NGOs and the active civil society on environmental problems; and
in some cases through appearances in the broadcast and print media,
and by direct mailing.
17. Through such means the climate change
research field has been strongly influenced by CSERGE work on
for example international environmental agreements, damage valuation
and vulnerability. This has been achieved through the Centre's
major contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and other fora. In the IPCC Second Assessment Report
of 1995, CSERGE researchers were convening, lead and contribution
authors in four major chapters across Working Groups II and III.
CSERGE's climate change work has also received recognition in
membership of the Scientific Organising Committee, United Nations
Staff College Project on International Environmental Agreements,
Turin, 1997-98 and an advisory role to the United Nations Environment
Programme, Effectiveness of Multilateral Environmental Agreements
Committee 1997-98. The high profile of this work has continued
recently with contributions to IPCC special reports and working
groups, including the 1998 Costa Rica meeting on Adaptation to
Climate Variability and Change. CSERGE researchers also contributed
to the Batelle Institute study of social sciences and climate
change, as well as to a number of International Geosphere Bioshpere
(IGBP) programmes, most notably Land Ocean Interface in the Coastal
Zone (LOICZ) and the International Human Dimensions Programme
(IHDP). In Europe, research has been carried out for EU DGVI (Agriculture)
on climate change mitigation strategies for land use resulting
in the volume Climate Change Mitigation and European Land Use
Policies.
18. In the UK the regional climate change
scenarios work mentioned above has been disseminated via two presentations:
a Workshop: "Future changes in the East Anglian region",
hosted by the Environment Agency Anglian Region, Peterborough,
30 April 1999; and a Conference "A better quality of life.
The future of sustainable developments in the East of England",
22 October 1999, held to launch the new East of England Sustainable
Development Round Table.
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