Select Committee on Trade and Industry Appendices to the Minutes of Evidence


Annex B

ECONOMIC BACKGROUND PREPARED BY LUTON BOROUGH COUNCIL

INTRODUCTION

  This paper has been prepared by the Research & Intelligence Team of the Department of Environment & Regeneration to provide an economic background to the Council's submission to the House of Commons' Select Committee meeting in Luton on 11 January 2001.

  The paper consists of the following elements:

    (a)  Employment in the Motor Vehicle Industry in Luton;

    (b)  Structural Employment Change in Luton;

    (c)  Employment, Output and Occupation Forecasts;

    (d)  The Employment Potential of the Vauxhall Site.

  All references to the Motor Vehicle Industry in the tables that utilise Annual Employment Survey data are to be treated as confidential under the Statistics of Trade Act 1948 and should not be published.

EMPLOYMENT IN THE MOTOR VEHICLE INDUSTRY IN LUTON

Employment in the Motor Vehicle Industry in Luton (SIC Code 34.1), 000s and %, 1996-98

  
1996
1997
1998
Total Employment in Luton
67,600
71,900
78,200
Total employment in motor vehicle industry (000s)
7,700
6,500
5,700
Per cent of total employment
11.4%
9.0%
7.3%
Male employment (000s) in motor vehicle industry
6,800
5,800
5,000
Per cent male employment
88.7%
89.9%
88.5%
Female employment (000s) in motor vehicle industry
870
650
650
Per cent female employment
11.3%
10.1%
11.5%

Source: ONS Annual Employment Surveys Crown Copyright.

STRUCTURAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE IN LUTON

Trends in manufacturing and services in Luton, 1981-98, number
Luton
SIC(92) Division
1981
1984
1987
1989
1991
1993
1996
1997
1998
Manufacturing
25,000
24,000
24,000
24,200
21,500
20,700
20,100
18,900
19,200
Per cent change
N/A
-4%
0
1%
-11%
-4%
-3%
-6%
1%
As per cent of Total Employment
35%
34%
31%
30%
29%
29%
30%
26%
25%
Service
42,700
43,600
51,000
53,900
50,900
48,800
45,300
50,000
55,400
Per cent change
N/A
2%
17%
6%
-6%
-4%
-7%
10%
11%
As per cent of Total Employment
61%
62%
65%
66%
68%
68%
67%
70%
71%
All employees
70,500
70,700
78,100
81,600
74,800
71,500
67,600
71,900
78,200

Source: ONS Annual Employment Surveys Crown Copyright.

EMPLOYMENT, OUTPUT & OCCUPATION FORECASTS

EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS (PRE-VAUXHALL CLOSURE ANNOUNCEMENT)

  
Bedfordshire & Luton
Luton
Bedford
Mid Beds
South Beds
2000
251.4
86.9
72.8
42.3
49.5
2001
252.6
87.3
73.1
42.6
49.7
2002
253.4
87.3
73.4
42.8
49.9
2003
254.1
87.4
73.7
43.0
50.1
2004
255.3
87.7
74.1
43.2
50.3
2005
256.7
88.0
74.5
43.5
50.6
2006
258.2
88.4
75.0
43.8
51.0
2007
259.7
88.8
75.5
44.1
51.3
2008
261.1
89.1
75.9
44.4
51.6
2009
262.5
89.5
76.3
44.7
51.9
2010
263.9
89.9
76.8
45.0
52.3


Source:  Bedfordshire & Luton Chamber, June 2000.

Note:  All figures in 000.

BEDFORDSHIRE & LUTON: ANNUAL OUTPUT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY, %

   
2000
2000-05
2005-10
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
-6.9
-1.4
1.8
Mining and Utilities
4.2
2.0
2.4
Metals, Minerals and Chemicals
4.1
2.8
3.1
Engineering
1.0
2.7
1.6
Other Manufacturing
0.7
0.4
1.1
Construction
3.5
4.1
4.6
Distribution, Hotels and Catering
2.8
3.2
3.5
Transport and Communications
4.9
3.8
3.6
Financial and Business Services
4.3
3.3
4.0
Public Services
2.6
2.3
2.2
Manufacturing
1.5
2.1
1.8
Non-manufacturing
3.3
2.8
3.2
Total Gross Value Added
2.8
2.6
2.8


Source:  Business Strategies, March 2000.

Note:  Pre-Vauxhall Announcement.

TOP TEN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SECTORS, BEDFORDSHIRE AND LUTON 2000-05

  
Absolute job gains
Annual % growth
Business services
3,380
1.8
Retailing
2,010
1.5
Education
1,730
1.5
Construction
1,170
1.0
Other services
900
1.6
Health
800
0.8
Machinery and Equipment
730
2.5
Hotels and Catering
680
1.3
Communications
120
0.7
Metals
110
0.5


Source:  Business Strategies, March 2000.

Note:  Pre-Vauxhall Announcement.

BEDFORDSHIRE AND LUTON: EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, 2000-2005

  
Total 2000
% share
2000-05 %
change per
annum
Managers and Administrators
45.1
17.9
0.4
Professional occupations
26.6
10.6
1.2
Associate Professional and Technical
25.7
10.2
1.6
Clerical and Secretarial
39.9
15.9
0.1
Craft and Related
33.9
13.5
-0.2
Personal and Protective services
21.9
8.7
1.3
Sales
19.3
7.7
2.2
Plant and Machine Operatives
24.2
9.6
0.0
Other Occupations
14.6
5.8
0.0

Source: Business Strategies Ltd, March 2000

Note: Pre-Vauxhall Announcement

THE EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL OF THE VAUXHALL SITE

  The Vauxhall site has been estimated as having the following components:

  Production Facility and adjacent car-parking (off Kimpton Road): 31 hectares

Car Parking (off Airport Way): 8 hectares.

Total: 39 hectares

  Note: these are approximate figures and no distinction has been made at this stage to assess the quantity of unusable land.

  The Borough of Luton Local Plani aims to retain current employment land and has policies opposing changes of use to non-employment purposes.

  In determining the requirements for employment land within the County Structure Plan 2011ii, a employment density figure of 75 employees per hectare was used.

  Applying this figure to the land currently used by Vauxhall suggests that 2,925 jobs can be accommodated on current land holdings.

  More recent analysis by the Structure Plan Team suggests that employment densities in Luton are higher than the average in Luton and Bedfordshire that were used in the County Structure Plan calculationsiii. A higher figure of 97 employees per hectacre is suggested.

  Using this higher employment density figure, the potential employment generated by Vauxhall's land holdings is 3,783.

  There may be views that the Vauxhall site has potential for non-B1 to B8 land-uses. The following tables show that the male full-time employment that would be lost at Vauxhall is unlikely to be replaced by activities such as retailing.

EMPLOYMENT IN MOTOR VEHICLE, RETAIL AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN LUTON

  000S and %, 1998

  
Male FT
Male PT
All Male
Female FT
Female PT
All Female
Total
Motor Vehicle
5,040
10
5,050
640
10
650
5,700
Manuf.
13,980
160
14,140
4,330
690
5,020
19,200
Retail
1,830
730
2,560
1,860
2,650
4,510
7,070

Source: ONS Annual Employment Survey 1998, Crown Copyright

ANALYSIS OF PART TIME EMPLOYMENT IN MOTOR VEHICLE, RETAIL AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN LUTON

  Number and %, 1998

  
% All Employment that is Part-time
% Male Part-time
% Female Part-time
Motor Vehicle
0.4%
50%
50%
Manufacturing
4.4%
19%
81%
Retail
47.8%
22%
78%

Source: ONS Annual Employment Survey 1998, Crown Copyright

i Borough of Luton Local Plan: September 1994.

ii County Structure Plan 2011: March 1997.

iii Luton Borough Council (1998) "Employment Land Audit in Luton—Demand & Supply Forecasts" Report to Planning Committee 15 October 1998.

11 January 2001


 
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Prepared 8 February 2001