Annex B
ECONOMIC BACKGROUND PREPARED BY LUTON BOROUGH
COUNCIL
INTRODUCTION
This paper has been prepared by the Research
& Intelligence Team of the Department of Environment &
Regeneration to provide an economic background to the Council's
submission to the House of Commons' Select Committee meeting in
Luton on 11 January 2001.
The paper consists of the following elements:
(a) Employment in the Motor Vehicle Industry
in Luton;
(b) Structural Employment Change in Luton;
(c) Employment, Output and Occupation Forecasts;
(d) The Employment Potential of the Vauxhall
Site.
All references to the Motor Vehicle Industry
in the tables that utilise Annual Employment Survey data are to
be treated as confidential under the Statistics of Trade Act 1948
and should not be published.
EMPLOYMENT IN
THE MOTOR
VEHICLE INDUSTRY
IN LUTON
Employment in the Motor Vehicle Industry in Luton
(SIC Code 34.1), 000s and %, 1996-98
| |
1996 | 1997
| 1998 |
| Total Employment in Luton | 67,600
| 71,900 | 78,200
|
| Total employment in motor vehicle industry (000s)
| 7,700 | 6,500
| 5,700 |
| Per cent of total employment | 11.4%
| 9.0% | 7.3%
|
| Male employment (000s) in motor vehicle industry
| 6,800 | 5,800
| 5,000 |
| Per cent male employment | 88.7%
| 89.9% | 88.5%
|
| Female employment (000s) in motor vehicle industry
| 870 | 650
| 650 |
| Per cent female employment | 11.3%
| 10.1% | 11.5%
|
Source: ONS Annual Employment Surveys Crown Copyright.
STRUCTURAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE IN LUTON
Trends in manufacturing and services in Luton, 1981-98, number
Luton
|
| SIC(92) Division | 1981
| 1984 | 1987
| 1989 | 1991
| 1993 | 1996
| 1997 | 1998
|
| Manufacturing | 25,000
| 24,000 | 24,000
| 24,200 | 21,500
| 20,700 | 20,100
| 18,900 | 19,200
|
| Per cent change | N/A
| -4% | 0
| 1% | -11%
| -4% | -3%
| -6% | 1%
|
| As per cent of Total Employment | 35%
| 34% | 31%
| 30% | 29%
| 29% | 30%
| 26% | 25%
|
| Service | 42,700
| 43,600 | 51,000
| 53,900 | 50,900
| 48,800 | 45,300
| 50,000 | 55,400
|
| Per cent change | N/A
| 2% | 17%
| 6% | -6%
| -4% | -7%
| 10% | 11%
|
| As per cent of Total Employment | 61%
| 62% | 65%
| 66% | 68%
| 68% | 67%
| 70% | 71%
|
| All employees | 70,500
| 70,700 | 78,100
| 81,600 | 74,800
| 71,500 | 67,600
| 71,900 | 78,200
|
Source: ONS Annual Employment Surveys Crown Copyright.
EMPLOYMENT, OUTPUT & OCCUPATION FORECASTS
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS
(PRE-VAUXHALL
CLOSURE ANNOUNCEMENT)
| | Bedfordshire & Luton
| Luton | Bedford
| Mid Beds | South Beds
|
| 2000 | 251.4
| 86.9 | 72.8
| 42.3 | 49.5
|
| 2001 | 252.6
| 87.3 | 73.1
| 42.6 | 49.7
|
| 2002 | 253.4
| 87.3 | 73.4
| 42.8 | 49.9
|
| 2003 | 254.1
| 87.4 | 73.7
| 43.0 | 50.1
|
| 2004 | 255.3
| 87.7 | 74.1
| 43.2 | 50.3
|
| 2005 | 256.7
| 88.0 | 74.5
| 43.5 | 50.6
|
| 2006 | 258.2
| 88.4 | 75.0
| 43.8 | 51.0
|
| 2007 | 259.7
| 88.8 | 75.5
| 44.1 | 51.3
|
| 2008 | 261.1
| 89.1 | 75.9
| 44.4 | 51.6
|
| 2009 | 262.5
| 89.5 | 76.3
| 44.7 | 51.9
|
| 2010 | 263.9
| 89.9 | 76.8
| 45.0 | 52.3
|
Source: Bedfordshire & Luton Chamber, June 2000.
Note: All figures in 000.
BEDFORDSHIRE & LUTON:
ANNUAL OUTPUT
GROWTH BY
INDUSTRY, %
| | 2000
| 2000-05 | 2005-10
|
| Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | -6.9
| -1.4 | 1.8
|
| Mining and Utilities | 4.2
| 2.0 | 2.4
|
| Metals, Minerals and Chemicals | 4.1
| 2.8 | 3.1
|
| Engineering | 1.0
| 2.7 | 1.6
|
| Other Manufacturing | 0.7
| 0.4 | 1.1
|
| Construction | 3.5
| 4.1 | 4.6
|
| Distribution, Hotels and Catering | 2.8
| 3.2 | 3.5
|
| Transport and Communications | 4.9
| 3.8 | 3.6
|
| Financial and Business Services | 4.3
| 3.3 | 4.0
|
| Public Services | 2.6
| 2.3 | 2.2
|
| Manufacturing | 1.5
| 2.1 | 1.8
|
| Non-manufacturing | 3.3
| 2.8 | 3.2
|
| Total Gross Value Added | 2.8
| 2.6 | 2.8
|
Source: Business Strategies, March 2000.
Note: Pre-Vauxhall Announcement.
TOP TEN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SECTORS, BEDFORDSHIRE AND LUTON
2000-05
| | Absolute job gains
| Annual % growth |
| Business services | 3,380
| 1.8 |
| Retailing | 2,010
| 1.5 |
| Education | 1,730
| 1.5 |
| Construction | 1,170
| 1.0 |
| Other services | 900
| 1.6 |
| Health | 800
| 0.8 |
| Machinery and Equipment | 730
| 2.5 |
| Hotels and Catering | 680
| 1.3 |
| Communications | 120
| 0.7 |
| Metals | 110
| 0.5 |
Source: Business Strategies, March 2000.
Note: Pre-Vauxhall Announcement.
BEDFORDSHIRE AND LUTON: EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, 2000-2005
| | Total 2000
| % share | 2000-05 %
change per
annum
|
| Managers and Administrators | 45.1
| 17.9 | 0.4
|
| Professional occupations | 26.6
| 10.6 | 1.2
|
| Associate Professional and Technical | 25.7
| 10.2 | 1.6
|
| Clerical and Secretarial | 39.9
| 15.9 | 0.1
|
| Craft and Related | 33.9
| 13.5 | -0.2
|
| Personal and Protective services | 21.9
| 8.7 | 1.3
|
| Sales | 19.3
| 7.7 | 2.2
|
| Plant and Machine Operatives | 24.2
| 9.6 | 0.0
|
| Other Occupations | 14.6
| 5.8 | 0.0
|
Source: Business Strategies Ltd, March 2000
Note: Pre-Vauxhall Announcement
THE EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL OF THE VAUXHALL SITE
The Vauxhall site has been estimated as having the following
components:
Production Facility and adjacent car-parking (off Kimpton
Road): 31 hectares
Car Parking (off Airport Way): 8 hectares.
Total: 39 hectares
Note: these are approximate figures and no distinction has
been made at this stage to assess the quantity of unusable land.
The Borough of Luton Local Plani aims to retain current employment
land and has policies opposing changes of use to non-employment
purposes.
In determining the requirements for employment land within
the County Structure Plan 2011ii, a employment density figure
of 75 employees per hectare was used.
Applying this figure to the land currently used by Vauxhall
suggests that 2,925 jobs can be accommodated on current land holdings.
More recent analysis by the Structure Plan Team suggests
that employment densities in Luton are higher than the average
in Luton and Bedfordshire that were used in the County Structure
Plan calculationsiii. A higher figure of 97 employees per hectacre
is suggested.
Using this higher employment density figure, the potential
employment generated by Vauxhall's land holdings is 3,783.
There may be views that the Vauxhall site has potential for
non-B1 to B8 land-uses. The following tables show that the male
full-time employment that would be lost at Vauxhall is unlikely
to be replaced by activities such as retailing.
EMPLOYMENT IN MOTOR VEHICLE, RETAIL AND MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRIES IN LUTON
000S and %, 1998
| | Male FT
| Male PT | All Male
| Female FT | Female PT
| All Female | Total
|
| Motor Vehicle | 5,040
| 10 | 5,050
| 640 | 10
| 650 | 5,700
|
| Manuf. | 13,980
| 160 | 14,140
| 4,330 | 690
| 5,020 | 19,200
|
| Retail | 1,830
| 730 | 2,560
| 1,860 | 2,650
| 4,510 | 7,070
|
Source: ONS Annual Employment Survey 1998, Crown Copyright
ANALYSIS OF PART TIME EMPLOYMENT IN MOTOR VEHICLE, RETAIL
AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN LUTON
Number and %, 1998
| | % All Employment that is Part-time
| % Male Part-time |
% Female Part-time |
| Motor Vehicle | 0.4%
| 50% | 50%
|
| Manufacturing | 4.4%
| 19% | 81%
|
| Retail | 47.8%
| 22% | 78%
|
Source: ONS Annual Employment Survey 1998, Crown Copyright
i Borough of Luton Local Plan: September 1994.
ii County Structure Plan 2011: March 1997.
iii Luton Borough Council (1998) "Employment Land Audit in
Luton—Demand & Supply Forecasts" Report to Planning
Committee 15 October 1998.
11 January 2001
|
