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Departmental Expenditure Limits

Barbara Follett: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what plans he has to change Customs and Excise (a) departmental expenditure limit and (b) administration costs limits for 2001–02. [19624]

Mr. Boateng: Subject to parliamentary approval of the necessary Supplementary Estimate, the HM Customs and Excise DEL will be increased by £79,505,000 from £1,049,066,000 to £1,128,571,000 and the administration costs limits will be increased by £25,889,000 from £924,894,000 to £950,783,000. Within the DEL change, the impact on resources and capital is as set out in the table.

	£
Resources
Change	47,520,000
New DEL	1,038,559,000
Of which:
Voted	1,033,559,000
Non-voted	5,000,000
Capital
Change	31,985,000
New DEL	90,012,000
Of which:
Voted	89,012,000
Non-voted	1,000,000

The change in the resource element of the DEL arises from: the take-up of end-year flexibility entitlement of £24,208,000 on administration costs and £5,131,000 on programme expenditure as set out in the Public Expenditure Outturn White Paper (CM 5243); a switch from capital EYF of £16,000,000 into programme expenditure; additional resources of £100,000 under round 3 of the Invest to Save Budget on administration costs; and additional SR2000 resources of £1,714,000 on administration costs and £500,000 on programme expenditure for tackling organised crime. These increases are partially offset by decreases in administration costs of: £69,000 to the Cabinet Office for fast stream recruitment operations; and £64,000 to DEFRA in respect of the Whisky Export Refund Scheme. The total administration costs change is £25,889,000.

The change in the capital element of the DEL arises from: the take-up of end-year flexibility of £30,000,000; and additional funding of £1,985,000 in respect of round 3 of the Capital Modernisation Fund.

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The increases will be offset by transfers or charged to the DEL Reserve and will not therefore add to the planned total of public expenditure.

Mrs. Lawrence: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what plans he has to amend the Inland Revenue (a) departmental expenditure limit and (b) administration costs limit for 2001–02. [19622]

Dawn Primarolo: Subject to parliamentary approval of the necessary Supplementary Estimate, the Inland Revenue departmental expenditure limit will be increased by £83,602,000 from £2,473,375,000 to £2,556,977,000 and the administration costs limit will be increased by £26,356,000 from £2,410,165,000 to £2,436,521,000. The net administration costs limit is increased by £1,919,000 from-£7,973,000 to-£6,054,000. Within the DEL change, the impact on resources and capital is set out in table:

	£
Resources
Change	28,018
New DEL	2,390,416
Of which:
Voted	2,021,370
Non-voted	369,046
Capital
Change	55,584
New DEL	166,561
Of which:
Voted	166,561
Non-voted	0

The change in the resource element of the DEL arises from the draw down of £23,338,000 administration costs EYF and the transfer of £4,679,000 from DWP.

The change in the capital element of the DEL arises from the draw down of capital EYF and non-discretionary EYF as set out in the Public Expenditure Outturn White Paper (CM 5243).

Mr. Russell Brown: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what plans he has to amend the Office for National Statistics (a) departmental expenditure limit and (b) administration costs limit for 2001–02. [19626]

Ruth Kelly: Subject to parliamentary approval of the necessary Supplementary Estimate, the Office for National Statistics DEL will be increased by £11,446,000 from £186,075,000 to £197,350,000 and the administration costs limits will be increased by £5,346,000 from £179,285,000 to £184,631,000. Within the DEL change, the impact on resources and capital is as set out in the following table.

	Resources	Capital
Change	5,346,000	6,100,000
New DEL	185,430,000	11,920,000
Of which:
Voted	184,630,000	11,920,000
Non-voted	800,000	0

The increase in the resource element of the DEL arises from the take up of end-year flexibility entitlement as set out in the Public Expenditure Outturn White Paper (Cm 5243) and will be used to fund census-related and

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other expenditure commitments. In addition, £6,000,000 will be drawn from the Departmental Unallocated Provision to meet similar spending pressures.

The change in the capital element of the DEL arises from the take-up of funds from a Capital Modernisation Fund award of £6,100,000 for development of a statistics service to improve neighbourhood renewal.The increase will be offset by transfers or charged to the DEL Reserve and will not therefore add to the planned total of public expenditure.

Mrs. Lawrence: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what plans he has to change HM Treasury's (a) departmental expenditure limits and (b) administration costs limits for 2001–02. [19623]

Ruth Kelly: Subject to parliamentary approval of the necessary Supplementary Estimate, HM Treasury's DEL will be increased by £35,267,000 from £209,578,000 to £244,845,000 and the administration costs limits will be increased by £9,678,000 from £97,011,000 to £106,689,000. Within the DEL change, the impact on resources and capital is as set out in the following table.

	Resources	Capital
Change	25,940	9,327
New DEL	229,768	15,077
Of which:
Voted	200,397	14,777
Non-voted	29,371	300

The change in the resource element of the DEL for RfR1 arises from the take-up of administration costs EYF (£1,640,000) and programme costs EYF (£3,662,000), to meet the additional costs of the Treasury's planned programme of work involving additional expenditure in policy areas, including those dealing with better public services, Whole of Government Accounts and productivity, the Equitable Life Inquiry, and Debt Management Office's initiatives to improve their management of risk and further professionalise their operations; to draw down the administration costs sums allocated from the Civil Service Modernisation Fund (£570,000) for early retirement costs and an interchange project, and from the Capital Modernisation Fund (£55,000) in respect of the Evidence Based Policy Fund projects; and a transfer of administration costs to the Cabinet Office in respect of Fast Stream recruitment operations (£282,000). The change in the capital element of the DEL for RfR1 arises from the reclassification of programme expenditure EYF to capital provision (£9,404,000), for the new service relating to the indemnity and insurance cover HMT has offered to aviation companies in the wake of WTC of 11 September, by way of a loan note with Troika Insurance Company Ltd., and for additional IT and communications equipment. There are also additional non-operating appropriations in aid in respect of higher than expected capital receipts (£77,000).

The change in the resource element of the DEL for RfR2 arises from the take-up of programme costs EYF (£2,000,000), to meet the increased demand for UK coins.

The change in the resource element of the DEL for RfR3 arises from the take-up of administration costs EYF (£5,172,000) and programme costs EYF (£10,000,000), to meet the costs of e-commerce pilot schemes and to fund the disposal of surplus civil estate properties; the

28 Nov 2001 : Column: 1011W

reclassification of programme costs EYF to administration costs for the costs associated with the OGC pay remit and VER scheme (£2,848,000); to draw down the administration costs sums allocated from the Civil Service Modernisation Fund (£325,000) for the promoting professional qualifications project; and a transfer of programme expenditure to the National Care Standards Commission in respect of the leasehold of Avonbridge House (£50,000).

The increases will be offset by transfers or charged to the DEL Reserve and will not therefore add to the planned total of public expenditure.

Tax Receipts

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what steps he is taking to improve the short-term forecasting of tax receipts. [18549]

Dawn Primarolo: Short-term forecasts are routinely monitored against outturns, the reasons for discrepancies identified where possible, and allowances are made for these in future forecasts where necessary.

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) if he will publish for each month of the current financial year the error rate occurring between the projected tax and VAT receipts and those which actually resulted; [18550]

(2) if he will place in the Library details of the economic model used by the Inland Revenue to forecast monthly tax receipts. [16304]

Dawn Primarolo [holding answer 23 November 2001]: I refer the right hon. Gentleman to my reply of 14 November 2001, Official Report, column 775W, the answer the Financial Secretary gave him on 20 July under cover of a letter and the letter which the Economic Secretary sent him on 27 September (copies of both of which have been placed in the Library of the House).

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many staff are used by the Inland Revenue and HM Customs and Excise to produce the monthly short-term forecasts of tax receipts; and what the annual costs for this exercise are. [18551]

Dawn Primarolo: Around 18 staff spend a small proportion of their time producing the monthly forecasts of tax receipts. No estimates of the annual cost are available.

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the (a) sections and (b) those of grade 3 and above in the Treasury which receive copies of the Inland Revenue and Customs and Excise short-term receipts forecasts and state for each recipient the use to which the information is put. [18552]

Dawn Primarolo: The sections that receive the short- term forecasts are: Public Sector Finances, Exchequer Funds and Accounts and the Debt Management Office. No officials of grade 3 and above routinely receive copies of these forecasts.

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will publish the methodology used to produce the levels of current receipts shown in table C4 of Budget 2001 and show how this related to the contents of paragraph C17, C18 and C19 of Budget 2001. [18553]

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Dawn Primarolo: Table C4 is consistent with the Office for National Statistics methodology for Public Finance Statistics. The assumptions mentioned in paragraphs C17–19 of Budget 2001, together with those in Box C1, are used as the basis for the projections by the Inland Revenue, and Customs and Excise for taxes, on a tax by tax basis, and the Treasury for other receipts. Details of how these assumptions are converted into forecasts for revenues are given in Forecasting the Public Finances in the Treasury, by Tim Pike and David Savage, Fiscal Studies, 1998. This is available from the publications section of the Institute of Fiscal Studies website www.ifs.org.uk.

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the way in which the Treasury uses the short-term forecasts of tax receipts provided by Her Majesty's Customs and Excise and the Inland Revenue. [18554]

Dawn Primarolo: The short-term forecasts are mainly used in the short-term management of Government cash flows.

Mr. Jack: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement listing the facts and information used by (a) the Inland Revenue and (b) Customs and Excise to produce the short-term forecasts of tax and receipts referred to in the letter of 27 September sent to the right hon. Member for Fylde. [18555]

Dawn Primarolo: I have nothing further to add to the information contained in that letter.

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