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Wanless Review
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on his plans to consult with patients and others on the conclusions of the Wanless Review of Long-Term Health Trends. [20336]
Mr. Andrew Smith: Derek Wanless will continue to consult organisations with an interest in health and social care about his interim report, both in the UK and abroad. He will also listen to the views of individuals, patient groups, the NHS and social care practitioners throughout the UK, before submitting his final report to the Chancellor.
Contingency Reserves
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what allocations have been made from the Government's contingency reserves for (a) 2001–02 and (b) 2002–03; and if he will make a statement. [20331]
Mr. Andrew Smith: The Government will continue to seek any resources additional to departmental budgets from Parliament in the usual way, which includes the announcement to Parliament of additions to departmental expenditure limits via parliamentary answers. These are given effect in supplementary estimates.
Tax Burden
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what his estimate is of net taxes and social security
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contributions as a share of gross domestic product for each year from 1999–2000 to 2005–06; how these estimates have changed over the last 12 months; and if he will make a statement; [20311]
- (2) what is his latest estimate of the change in the tax burden from 2001–02 to 2003–04; and if he will make a statement. [20314]
Mr. Andrew Smith: Current projections for net taxes and social security contributions as a per cent. of GDP are available in Tables B10 and B22 of the 2001 pre-Budget report.
The November 2000 projections for net taxes and social security contributions as a per cent. of GDP are available in Table B10 of the 2000 pre-Budget report.
Privatisation Proceeds
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimates he has made for privatisation proceeds over the next 10 years; and if he will make a statement. [20320]
Mr. Andrew Smith: Projections for proceeds from the sales of assets for the next three years are set out in Table B18 of the pre-Budget report (Cm 5318).
Budgetary Forecasts
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the size is of the safety margin built into future borrowing forecasts, referred to in paragraph B3, page 164, of the pre-Budget report, for each of the next three financial years; and if he will make a statement. [20218]
Mr. Andrew Smith: The public finance projections in the pre-Budget report are based on cautious assumptions audited by the National Audit Office (NAO).
In addition, the robustness of projections is tested against an alternative more cautious scenario, in which the level of trend output is assumed to be lower than in the central case, as illustrated in chart 2.5 on page 29 of the pre-Budget report.
Further detail is set out in Box B1 and Chapter 2, paragraphs 2.60 and 2.61 of the pre-Budget report.
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what assumptions for the level of unemployment in (a) 2001, (b) 2002, (c) 2003 and (d) 2004 were used in drawing up the economic and budgetary forecasts made in the pre-Budget report; and if he will make a statement. [20319]
Mr. Andrew Smith: The assumption for unemployment used in the public finance forecasts presented in the pre- Budget report is based on the average of outside forecasters' forecasts for unemployment, in line with NAO audited conventions. Assumed annual average unemployment figures are shown in the table. The Government, in line with the practice of previous Administrations, does not publish forecasts for unemployment.
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| UK seasonally adjusted claimant unemployed | |
|---|---|
| 2000–01(25) | 1.05 |
| 2001–02 | 0.97 |
| 2002–03 | 1.06 |
| 2003–04 | 1.14 |
(25) Outturn
Inland Revenue
Mr. Chaytor: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he will announce his decision on the future of the distraint work of the Inland Revenue; and if he will publish his assessment of the financial evaluation of the options. [20396]
Dawn Primarolo: This proposal is still under consideration and I am not at this stage able to say when an announcement will be made.
Output
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of the change in the trend growth of output in the UK since 1997; and if he will make a statement. [20221]
Ruth Kelly: The Government's latest assessment of trend output growth in the UK is outlined in Chapter 2 and Annex A of the 2001 "pre-Budget report" (Cm 5318).
Productivity Growth
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of (a) whole economy productivity growth and (b) manufacturing productivity growth for each year from 1975–76 to 2001–02; and if he will make a statement. [20222]
Ruth Kelly: Estimates of output per job across the whole economy, and for the manufacturing sector since 1978–79, are published by the Office for National Statistics, and are accessible through the Library of the House.
Recent trends in UK productivity growth are discussed in Annex A of the 2001 "pre-Budget report" (Cm 5318). Further information is contained in "The Economy: Supplementary Charts and Tables", published alongside this report.
Labour Productivity
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of the change in the trend growth of labour productivity since 1997; and if he will make a statement. [20220]
Ruth Kelly: The Government's latest assessment of trend labour productivity growth in the UK is outlined in Chapter 2 and Annex A of the 2001 pre-Budget report (Cm 5318).
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Health Spending
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether it is his policy to raise taxes to increase NHS spending; and if he will make a statement. [20310]
Dawn Primarolo: The Government have made their commitment to increasing resources over the next three years for the NHS, funded from general taxation and linked to reform. Decisions on taxation and spending will be taken in the Budget and Spending Review, respectively, next year.
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to his pre-Budget Statement of 27 November 2001, Official Report, column 829, whether it is the policy of his Department to increase expenditure on the national health service to the average level of health spending in European Union countries; and if he will make a statement. [20302]
Mr. Andrew Smith: I refer the hon. Member to the Prime Minister's statement on 28 November 2001, Official Report, column 963.
Debt Interest
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of debt interest payments by central Government in (a) 2001–02 and (b) 2002–03; what effect there has been on these forecasts as a consequence of the new forecasts for interest rate levels as set out in the November 2001 pre-Budget report; and if he will make a statement. [20338]
Mr. Andrew Smith: The latest forecast for Central Government Gross Debt Interest payments, and the change since the Budget, for 2001–02 and 2002–03 can be found in the pre-Budget report in tables B13 and B14, pages 182 and 184, respectively. The changes in the forecast for 2001–02 and 2002–03 are due to lower assumed interest rates and the impact the lower rates have on the forecast for RPI affecting the accrued up-lift on index linked gilts.
Interest rate assumptions used in public finance forecasts are audited by the National Audit Office. For the PBR the interest rate assumptions were based on market expectations as of 19 November 2001.
Council Tax Revenues
Mr. Laws: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of the percentage increase in council tax revenues between 2001–02 and 2002–03; and if he will make a statement. [20337]
Mr. Andrew Smith: We make projections of council tax receipts as part of our wider projections of the public finances. Table B11 of the pre-Budget report shows projections for council tax receipts in Great Britain for 2001–02 and 2002–03.
Decisions on council tax are for local authorities to take, after consulting with their local electorate and taxpayers.
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