Charts submitted by Professor David King,
Chief Scientific Adviser, Office of Science and Technology
THE FMD STORY
FMD confirmed in Essex on 20 February,
leading to speculation about causes: feeding of pig swill to pigs
at farm in Heddon-on-the-Wall.
University epidemiologist get data
from MAFF on 14 March.
Epidemiologists present their models
on 21 March.
CSA advised meeting that FMD out
of control on 24 March.
Three university groups (Cambridge,
Edinburgh and Imperial College) involved in modelling the epidemic.
MAFF/VLA also running its "Interspread"
Other scientists have provided input.
Imperial model produced fast results:
useful when numbers of cases were running high.
Cambridge farm-specific model, dealing
with geographic spread and stochastic variability, most useful
for modelling the tail of the epidemic.