Charts submitted by Professor David King,
Chief Scientific Adviser, Office of Science and Technology
THE FMD STORY
— FMD confirmed in Essex on 20 February,
leading to speculation about causes: feeding of pig swill to pigs
at farm in Heddon-on-the-Wall.
— University epidemiologist get data
from MAFF on 14 March.
— Epidemiologists present their models
on 21 March.
— CSA advised meeting that FMD out
of control on 24 March.
EPIDEMIOLOGY
— Three university groups (Cambridge,
Edinburgh and Imperial College) involved in modelling the epidemic.
— MAFF/VLA also running its "Interspread"
model.
— Other scientists have provided input.
DIFFERENT MODELS
USEFUL AT
DIFFERENT TIMES:
— Imperial model produced fast results:
useful when numbers of cases were running high.
— Cambridge farm-specific model, dealing
with geographic spread and stochastic variability, most useful
for modelling the tail of the epidemic.
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