THE ROLE OF ZIMBABWE'S NEIGHBOURS
60. Developments in Zimbabwe have been followed with particular
concern in the countries which border it. At their meeting in
Abuja in September 2001, the foreign ministers of a number of
Commonwealth countries—including South Africa, Nigeria and
Kenya—warned that "The situation in Zimbabwe poses
a threat to the socio-economic stability of the entire sub-region
and the continent at large."[72]
It is in the interests of states neighbouring Zimbabwe to do all
they can to achieve stability there. In the short term, they may
judge that this is best achieved by not rocking Mr Mugabe's boat
too hard, but in the longer term they will surely conclude that
fundamental change is necessary.
61. Feargal Keane suggested to us that "The critical partner
in this is Thabo Mbeki in South Africa."[73]
It is true that South Africa possesses potentially effective economic
levers, supplying as it does a substantial part of Zimbabwe's
energy needs.[74] Also,
the decline in value of the South African Rand since 1997—which
is largely attributable to South Africa's failure to distance
itself from the chaos in Zimbabwe—is estimated to have cost
it $US 7.7 billion. As leading Zimbabwe economist John Robertson
has pointed out in a study conducted for the South African Conference
of Trade Unions, this sum is greater than that promised by the
G8 countries for the entire African continent under the NePAD
initiative.[75] A stable
and prosperous Zimbabwe—which is not going to come about
under Robert Mugabe's presidency—is clearly in South Africa's
interests.
62. However, Richard Dowden warned that
"Even with the best will in the world Mbeki knows that
he can create the very catastrophe he is trying to prevent if
he applies the wrong pressure at the wrong time. It is not easy
for South Africa to sort out, but I have a very strong impression,
following the briefings after the Commonwealth decision, that
there is, even within the South African Government, quite a lot
of sympathy for Mugabe and a feeling that we have to protect this
guy from outside imperialism. I personally was frankly appalled
to hear this. It was very depressing that some of the people around
Mbeki were taking the line that Britain has got obsessed with
Zimbabwe and Mugabe and it is all to do with white owned land
and so on. It was very distressing to find that, although they
had conceded the suspension, I could not see any sign of any pressure
from South Africa since then."[76]
63. We in the United Kingdom must remember that, from some African
perspectives, Robert Mugabe was a freedom-fighter who helped to
liberate his people from colonialism. Other African leaders with
similar backgrounds will not lightly desert him, least of all
at the behest of the former colonial powers. We accept that quiet,
patient diplomacy has been and will continue to be necessary in
order to persuade the leaderships of the former Front Line States
that it is in their and their peoples' interests to act jointly
and decisively against Mugabe.
64. The Minister told us:
"I sometimes think that it is important for us to remember
that in our own relationship, for example with the European Union,
to our partner governments, or with the United States or other
allies, that what we say in public does not always match what
we say in private. We are dealing very often with complex diplomatic
issues. We are always weighing up the extent to which something
which is said privately might have a lot more impact than something
which is said publicly. There are degrees of influence exercised
through the diplomatic process. I see that every day in the work
that I do, and I have absolutely no doubt that that is happening
the whole time, in terms of the relationships that different African
leaders and African governments have with each other. They have
to take on board the history but they also have to take on board
the reality of their influence and how that might best be exercised.
Whilst there is no doubt that there has been some disappointment
about the lack of public statements from some African countries,
it would be wrong for us to assume that there are not robust and
difficult discussions going on behind the scenes."[77]
65. There can be little room for doubt that the key participants
in any action to return Zimbabwe to normality will be the leaders
of South Africa, Nigeria and other African countries. They must
realise that brave promises about good governance as part of their
compact for increased international aid will sound increasingly
hollow if they allow the situation in Zimbabwe to deteriorate
further. International investors will fight shy not only of Zimbabwe
but of its region until that situation improves. For the sake
of the region as a whole, as well as for the people of Zimbabwe,
this country must work with and sometimes through its friends
in Africa; and they must play their part in full.
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